The Grinnell Project: Small Mammal ResponsesTo Climate Change in California, the Yosemite Transect

CHRIS J. CONROY, MICHELLE S. KOO, WILLIAM MONAHAN, JUAN PARRA, SUSAN CAMERON,

JAMES L. PATTON, and CRAIG MORITZMuseum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley

Lassen

Yosemite

Trinity

Col

orad

o R

iverS. Bernardino Mts.

S. Jacinto Mts.

Grinnell’s life zones

150150900900

18001800

27002700 33003300 2800280022002200Elevation (m)

OUR MOTIVATIONS TO CONDUCT THE STUDY

RIGHT TIME1. CENTENNIAL PROJECT, AKA GRINNELL RESURVEY

TO CELEBRATE 100TH ANNIVERSARY2. INVITATION FROM USGS/NPS

RIGHT COLLECTION1. FIELD NOTES 2. PHOTOGRAPHS 3. SPECIMENS

BEYOND THE SPECIMENS:MVZ’s historical field notes (> 91,000 pages; >35,000 scanned)…

2003upper Lyell Canyon

1915

8 - 16 June

8 - 17 July

20 May -1 June 4 - 11 Sept

23 - 31 July

4 - 14 Aug

2003

2004

2005

Survey Elevation

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

Period

2003 2004

2005 historic

2003 2004 2005 1915-20

Peaslee Creek, 4.2 mi SW La Grange, 156 ft

Goat Ranch, 1850 ft

Yosemite Valley, 4000 ft

HAPPY ISLES FEN, 4100 ft

Merced Grove, 5600 ft

Chinquapin - Glacier pt. Road, 6500 ft

Glen Aulin, 7800 ft

Lyell Canyon, 10,000 ft

Peromyscus truei

Sorex lyelli

Ochotona princeps

Spermophilusbeecheyi

Tamias speciosus

Aplodontiarufa

MAMMALS EXAMINED, YOSEMITE 2003

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

SPECIES

Peromyscus maniculatus

Microtus longicaudus

Zapus princeps Scapanus latimanusSorex palustrisMicrotus californicus

Sorex monticolus

0

5

10

15

20

25

Snel

ling

La G

rang

e

Swee

twat

er C

reek

YOSE

MITE

VALL

EY

MERCE

D GRO

VECR

ANE

FLAT

As

pen

Valle

y

GLACI

ER P

T. R

D.GLE

N AU

LIN

Merce

d La

ke

Porc

.flat

/Mt.

Hoff.

E. F

ork

Indi

an C

anyo

n

Voge

lsang

Lak

e

LYEL

L CA

NYON

Wal

ker L

ake

Willi

ams

Butte

MODERN ONLYGRINNELL ONLYSHARED

Few high elevation species: Expansion of lower elevation limit (3800 ft)

NO CHANGEMicrotus longicaudusMicrotus montanusPeromyscus boyliiPeromyscus maniculatusZapus princepsTamiasciurus douglasiiTamias speciosusSorex trowbridgii

RARE AND HARD TO DOCUMENTSorex lyelliSorex tenellus - New for parkPhenacomys intermediusSorex palustris

WHY THE CHANGE IN MAMMAL DISTRIBUTION?

GROSS CHANGES IN HABITATS (PHOTOS)

CLIMATE DATA - TEMPERATURE INCREASES

VEGETATION CHANGE - EXPANDING CONIFER FORESTS

MVZ 1367Yosemite Valley from the old Oak Flat Road

Not much change on the slopes, same shrubs still there

1916

2005

Vogelsang Lake, ~10,000 feet

1915

2004

Yosemite Valley

Herbaceous15%

Broadleaved8%

Barren21%

Shrub21%

Conifer35%

USING YOSEMITE DATA TO MODEL CHANGES ACROSS CALIFORNIA

MODERN DATA

2003-2006

TESTING & REFINING MODELS

GRINNELL’S DATA

PASTDISTRIBUTION

MODELS

FUTURE PROJECTIONS

CLIMATE(ENVIRON.)

DATA

Historic Climate Modeling

Juan Parra & William Monahan

Climate stations used to interpolate climate surfaces for California. Stations had at least 10 years of monthly data for the historic time period (1900 – 1940).

Many more stations to use for the current time period (1980 – 2006).

Historic Climate Model

• Purpose: climate surface contemporary with “Grinnell” period survey data (1900-1940)

• Method: thin plate splining (ANUSPLIN)• Results: climate model to generate

bioclimatic variables & to calculate change from Grinnell period.

Change in total precipitationof the driest quarter (current – historic). Blue represents areaswhere precipitation has decreased relative to the historic time period.Note:Prec in mm *10

Change in total precipitationof the wettest quarter (current –historic). Blue represents areaswhere precipitation has increased during the wettest quarter relative to the historictime period.Note:Prec in mm *10

Environmental VariablesAnnual Mean TemperatureMean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp))Isothermality (P2/P7) (* 100)Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100)Max Temperature of Warmest MonthMin Temperature of Coldest MonthTemperature Annual Range (P5-P6)Mean Temperature of Wettest QuarterMean Temperature of Driest QuarterMean Temperature of Warmest QuarterMean Temperature of Coldest QuarterAnnual PrecipitationPrecipitation of Wettest MonthPrecipitation of Driest MonthPrecipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)Precipitation of Wettest QuarterPrecipitation of Driest QuarterPrecipitation of Warmest QuarterPrecipitation of Coldest Quarter

Basic MethodsSpecies Distribution Modelling

1. Selected 24 small mammal species based on sample size and geographic range criteria (see species list on next slide). Data are MVZ specimen records.

2. Used historic species occurrences (1900-1940) in conjunction with historic climate surfaces to create niche models with Maxent and Bioclim.

3. Projected historical models onto present-day climate surfaces and assessed statewide model performance using modern point locality data (1980-2006).

MaxEnt&

BIOCLIM

Historic Climate

Data

SpeciesData

Assessment with Current Climate &Current Sampling

Peromyscus boyliiSorex trowbridgiiTamias quadrimaculatus

Transition

Peromyscus trueiReithrodontomys megalotis

Chaetodipus californicusDipodomys heermanniDipodomys panamintinus

LowerSonoran

Spermophilus beecheyiSpermophilus lateralisThomomys bottae

Tamias senexTamias speciosusThomomys monticolaZapus princeps

Glaucomys sabrinusMicrotus californicusMicrotus longicaudusPeromyscus maniculatus

Generalist

Microtus montanusOchotona princepsSpermophilus beldingiTamias alpinusTamias amoenus

Boreal

Generated from DIVA-GIS

BIOCLIMBIOCLIM(Nix 1986)(Nix 1986)

00--100100 percentilepercentile2.5 2.5 --97.5 percentile97.5 percentile

5 5 -- 9595 percentilepercentile

MaxEnt(Phillips, Dudik, and Schapire 2004;

Phillips, Anderson, and Schapire 2005)• Maximum Entropy framework• Machine learning algorithm• Uses presence-only data• Can use continuous or categorical

environmental data• Weights environmental variables one

iteration at a time to maximize the likelihood of optimum probability distribution

Model projections: Grinnell present

Lodgepole chipmunk Tamias speciosus Boreal

Maxent

California Vole Microtus californicus Generalist

Maxent Bioclim

Projected Range Gain

Projected Range Loss

GeneralistSpermophilus lateralis

GeneralistPeromyscus maniculatus

Lower SonoranPeromyscus truei

GeneralistMicrotus longicaudus

GeneralistGlaucomys sabrinus

Lower SonoranChaetodipus californicus

Lower TransitionPeromyscus boylii

BorealTamias alpinus

BorealZapus princeps

Lower SonoranDipodomys panamintinus

BorealTamias speciosus

BorealThomomys monticola

BorealTamias amoenus

Lower TransitionTamias quadrimaculatus

BorealMicrotus montanus

BorealTamias senex

GeneralistMicrotus californicus

GeneralistThomomys bottae

Lower SonoranDipodomys heermanni

GeneralistSpermophilus beecheyi

BorealSpermophilus beldingi

BorealOchotona princeps

Lower TransitionSorex trowbridgii

Lower SonoranReithrodontomys megalotis

ONGOING WORK

FIELDWORKNEW SITES IN YOSEMITE - BASELINE, GROUNDTRUTHING REVISITING SITES - GROUNDTRUTHING, INTERANNUAL VARIATION LASSEN PROJECT - ONGOINGBOREAL/ALPINE PROJECT - PROJECTED (FUNDING PENDING)

MODELING OF SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS

ANCIENT DNA STUDIESPOPULATION LEVEL STUDIES

CLIMATE MODELLINGFUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS

Grinnell Life Zones

Grinnell Resurvey Project:

Realizing his vision of using museum specimens to document and understand patterns and change in the natural world.

•Ongoing research

•Collaborators welcome

• Input from climatologists!

MVZ.BERKELEY.EDU