the hackett money flow commodity report

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The Hackett Money Flow Commodity Report October 5, 2021

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-Published By Hackett Financial Advisors, Inc.

Shawn Hackett, President 22641 Caravelle Circle Boca Raton, FL 33433

561-573-3766 Email: [email protected]

www.HackettAdvisors.com

ISSN 1937-7207

Growing Financial Success

CONTENTS

Corn Price Analysis

SoybeanPriceAnalysis

Wheat Price Analysis

CottonPriceAnalysis

SugarPriceAnalysis

CoffeePriceAnalysis

LumberPriceAnalysis

OatsPriceAnalysis

OrangeJuicePriceAnalysis

Rice Price Analysis

MilkPriceAnalysisLivestock

Cocoa Price Analysis

Executive Summary

Grain markets remain bifurcated with wheat reasserting its bull market trend while soybeans crash and still in search of the harvest lows with the corn market stuck in the middle. The next big catalyst for the group will be a severe realization of a major drought in Argentina from December onward. Right now, deferred bean meal and deferred corn prices look extremely attractive to us. We are also very excited about deferred cattle prices as the current correction completes here in October. In the Soft’s, OJ and coffee continue to have the underpinnings for extending their bull markets into the end of the year. High quality wheat and rice also have a very bullish profile heading into 2022 as both represent core human consumed food and both are also being used to alleviate the extreme corn feed shortage. Natural gas remains elevated as hurricane IDA exposed the underbelly of the budding US supply shortage as the EU and Asia are drowning in an LNG supply crisis as prices for a second year in row with prices in the $30-$35 US equivalent area. April natural gas prices in our view offer a tremendous value and the discount given to it this particular year is unjustified. Bull call spreads are advised.

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COMBINED SMART MONEY RANKINGS GRID (Amalgamates the Long-term Smart Money Algorithm and the Short-term Smart

Money Oscillator for Optimum Timeliness and Reliability) Range= +6 to -6 (Meant for Longer-term Hedgers and Positional Traders)

Major Smart Money Buy Signal=+5 to +6; Bullish Smart Money Signal =+3 to +4 Neutral to Bullish Smart Money Signal=0 to +2; Neutral to Bearish Smart Money Signal=0 to -2

Bearish Smart Money Signal= -3 to -4; Major Smart Money Sell Signal= -5 to -6

These longer-term smart money signals are typically meant for bullish or bearish Ag market moves over a 3-month to 6-month time horizon. One should be focused on those signals that are either +5/+6 or -5/-6 for taking longer term hedging and trading actions. The latest data we have two Combined Smart Money buy signal in the milk and bean meal markets. There was one Combined Smart Money sell signal in cotton. Keep your eye on the soybean complex as buying continues to be impressive. For more overall details on individual Ag markets please read the individual discussion sections later in this report.

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Buy Signal Zone

Sell Signal Zone




SHORT-TERM SMART MONEY OSCILLATOR RANKINGS GRID Range= +2 to -2 (Meant for Shorter Term Hedgers and Traders)

Smart Money Oscillator Buy Signal=+2; Neutral to Bullish Smart Money Oscillator Signal= 0 to +1 Neutral to Bearish Smart Money Oscillator Signal= 0 to -1; Smart Money Oscillator Sell Signal= -2

These shorter-term smart money signals are typically meant for bullish or bearish Ag market moves over a 30-day to 45-day time horizon. One should be focused on those signals that are either +2 or -2 for taking shorter term hedging and trading actions. The latest data there were 5 short-term Smart Money Oscillator buy signals. There was one short-term Smart Money oscillator sell signal. Keep your eye on the soybean complex for an approaching bottom later this month. For more overall details on individual Ag markets please read the individual discussion sections later in this report.

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Buy signal zone

Sell signal zone




Natural Gas and Fertilizer…The Great Link

Fertilizer Usage Per Acre for Various US crops

With the ongoing escalation of fertilizer prices and especially Nitrogen based fertilizer prices that have been escalated from the ongoing natural gas shortage overseas and record high LNG prices along with the building US shortage of natural gas as we head into a historic long and cold Northern Hemisphere winter and these high fertilizer prices are here to stay well into next spring of 2022. This means that every producer will have to think long and hard about how to manage these escalating fertilizer costs and that will impact what crops get planted and how much fertilizer gets put on per acre.

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The chart on the prior page shows the relative fertilizer requirements for US crops which is a good barometer for the rest of the world as well. The two crops that stand out the utilize the most fertilizer per acre to produce a good crop is the corn market and the rice market. It will be very hard to justify maintaining current planted acreage or increasing planted acreage at current prices with fertilize prices having doubled with the heavy fertilizer demands these two crops require. So, either acres will fall for cheaper input crops like soybeans which needs the least amount of fertilize applications and even those acres that do get planted to corn or rice the fertilizer applications will be toned down to better balance economics with yield. The market will need to reprice both corn and rice higher to account for this economic mismatch in the hope that it can incentivize farmers to plant more acres and to utilize more fertilizer. That will be a very tough job indeed. Given these offshoot tentacle effects of a rationing of fertilizer prices based upon the budding natural gas energy crisis, we feel that both corn and rice offer outstanding long-term value heading into the Northern Hemisphere growing seasons. Please go to the corn and rice sections for more details about how we would play this.

Nitrogen Fertilizer Usage Per Country Shows How Important Yields Are to the Amounts Applied. Any Reauction in Usage Means Global Yields Will Fall Irrespective of Climate Conditions

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To add insult to injury hurricane IDA caused fertilize plants in the that region to shut down on damage and power outages further exacerbating the tightness in the markt as Asia/Eu panic buy available US supplies for export. How Will China and India Fund their Massive Increased Fertilizer Costs Given Their Highly Rice

Centric (China and India) and Corn Centric (China) Crop Concentrations?

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Asia Has A Major Fertlizer Cost Problem. Yields and Acres Will Come Under Pressure without massive increases in subsidies.




CORN PRICE ANALYSIS-Smart Money Smart Money Remains Neutral to slightly Bullish

December 22 Corn Prices Have Broken out From a Major Triangle Consolation Pattern and Look to

be Heading Much Higher

Corn Synopsis

(Combined Smart Money Ranking 1; Long-Term SM Ranking -1; Short term SM Ranking 2)

The US corn crop will be good but not great and yields need to fall to the low 170’s in the months ahead to correctly express true production. This will leave the US with a 1.2-billion-bushel carryout with no new fresh supplies coming until the South American corn harvest in June 22. Our expectation is for a much-improved Brazil crop on much improved weather from last year while Argentina sees a major downgrade in production from last as a drought escalates from December onward. The net result is that exportable supplies coming out of South America will be insufficient to alleviate the current corn shortage. Right now, we fell that nearby corn prices are fairly priced until we reach the December time window and Argentina drought can get the corn market excited again. But the real showstopper in our view is the December 2022 new crop corn prices that will have to deal with historically higher fertilizer prices and huge pressure coming on lower planted acres as well as lower yields from reduced application to con conserve costs at current low prices.

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December 2022 crop corn in the $530’s offers a tremendous long-term value especially in light of what we expect to be a chaotic US planting season with delayed panting, late wintry conditions and excess snow melt flooding. All this suggests even less planted acres that even high fertilizer prices would suggest. The December 2022 new crop corn prices need to go much higher in hurry to provide the sufficient economic back drop to maintain adequate acres and fertilizer usage despite that bad weather. We feel prices closer to $7 are needed to adequately convince the US farmer and those overseas to reconsider. We would be looking to protect upside prices risks on deferred corn pricing whether as an end-user or as an investor/trader with a combination of futures and options strategies depending on your particular orientation and risk situation.

SOYBEAN PRICE ANALYSIS Smart Money Buy Signal is Imminent

March 22 Soybean Prices Look Set to Test Support in the low $12’s

Soybean Synopsis

(Combined Smart Money Ranking 2; Long-Term SM Ranking 0; Short term SM Ranking 2) Soybeans tend to be the winner in a high fertilizer priced environment given their very low need for nitrogen fertilizer costs against the ability to plant soybeans later in the planting season while keeping yield potential good versus that for corn.

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That relatively speaking means that beans need to lose value relative to corn prices to avoid an oversupply situation from too many planted acres. Additionally, we expect another very good Brazilian soybean crop to keep China well supplied. Where we do see a problem is with the Argentina soybean crop and what that may mean for developing a beam meal and bean oil shortage from December onward given Argentina’s prolific nature of exporting both to the world. Just over the horizon is the “renewable diesel” gold rush that is coming in the US for producing more environmentally friendly fuels for transportation and jet fuel. The amounts that are being talked about and the large investments the big oil companies are making suggest that a possible new demand side paradigm shift may be upon us that will greatly change the balance of power in the grains complex. We will need a lot more soybean acres a few years down the road so the current weakness in the soybeans and the bean complex should be looked at in that longer-term bullish construct. For now, beans are heading lower heading into the October 12th USDA report that will likely see yields being raised while corn yields will likely be reduced. Smart Money keeps buying and a buy signal draws nearer. Get ready to buy. Bean Meal-Smart Money

Smart Money has Triggered an Initial Buy Signal

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Smart Money Bean Meal




July 22 Bean Meal Prices will complete a descending wedge pattern Shortly and are set Up for a Major Upward Spike Trade

Bean Meal Synopsis

(Combined Smart Money Ranking 5; Long-Term SM Ranking 3; Short term SM Ranking 2) An initial Smart Money buy signal has been triggered. The ideal set up awaits this market as we must get through what we believe will be a bearish October 12th USDA report as soybean yields will likely be raised. This last gasp downward for soybeans provides the perfect set up to complete this bullish epic descending triangular pattern for the July 22 contract. As we move in to the first held of 2022 the need for bean meal and soybeans as China rebuilds their Hog herd for a second time while a serious Argentina drought starts to worry the market from December Onwards sets the stage for a wild first half of the year in the meal market. End users should be methodically buying and extending their cash need on this decline while investors and traders need to be ready to buy soon. This is exactly the kind of set up we look for and are structured to take advantage of. Given the explosive Character DNA of this market, call options which currently have extremely low volatility premiums look to be the vehicle of choice when the time comes to take actions.

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WHEAT PRICE ANALYSIS Our All wheat Smart Money Is Largely Neutral to Bearish

December KC winter Wheat Prices are Near Overhead Triangle Resistance and are Due for a

Correction

Wheat Synopsis

CBOT-(Combined Smart Money Ranking 2; Long-Term SM Ranking 1; Short term SM Ranking 1)

KC-(Combined Smart Money Ranking 0; Long-Term SM Ranking -1; Short term SM Ranking 1)

MN-(Combined Smart Money Ranking -4; Long-Term SM Ranking -3; Short term SM Ranking -1)

US wheat ending stocks after last weeks quarterly grains stocks report has now fallen back to levels last seen in 2012/20213. This masks the extreme shortage that exists in the high-quality end of the market as presented by MN wheat and portions of the KC wheat supply. With our forecast for a very late ending winter with extreme flooding snowpack melt, the prospects for post dominancy for winter wheat and the prospects for getting the MN spring wheat planted next spring are bleak. This should set off the first legitimate wheat supply crisis since the one that was generated in 2007/2008. Short term prices are reaching the highs set earlier in the year and are set for a correction in prices. We will be looking for that correction to provide an opportunity to buy.

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COTTON Price Analysis-Smart Money An Initial Smart Money Sell Signal Has Been Triggered

March 22 Cotton Prices Have Reached Key Overhead Resistance and Are Set for a Correction

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Cotton Synopsis (Combined Smart Money Ranking -5; Long-Term SM Ranking -3; Short term SM Ranking -2)

High energy markets always drive greater demand for cotton relative to petroleum based synthetic fibers. We have stated many times that the Chinese have a lot of cotton but do not have a lot of high-quality cotton which is what the US produces best. Chinese demand for US cotton has been blistering and has been driving up this market despite a very good crop in the US that is about to be harvested. With the record high energy prices in Asian strangling their economies, it is hard to imagine that the demand for US cotton from Asian and China can be maintained for much longer. Current prices for cotton will increase acres global on a grander scale if maintained. As US harvest picks up steam, it is hard to see how this market won’t cave into to harvest pressure. With an initial smart money sell signal having been triggered producers should be making cash sales as we speak. Investors and traders should wait for a technical confirmation of the top.

COCOA PRICE ANALYSIS-Smart Money Smart Money Has Turned Slightly Bearish

December 21 Cocoa Prices Have Reached Upper Level Resistance from Which a Correction Should Emanate

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Cocoa Synopsis (Combined Smart Money Ranking -1; Long-Term SM Ranking -1; Short term SM Ranking 0)

Tree crops like cocoa have a memory of what age they are how much energy they have to produce and what they need to do to remain healthy and survive. This nature of tree crops to preserve themselves is a reliable marker to always keep in mind. Despite very good weather in West Africa this growing season, the output from this key West African region is expected to fall 5%-10% from the last two-year record output. Meaning, the trees are just too damn tired to put out a big crop this year. Hence, with smaller supplies and gradually improving demand, the cocoa market is beginning to show signs of coming out of its long-term price lethargy. As we look ahead to the back half of 2022, El Nino is going to surface which is highly correlated to unfavorable hot dry weather in West Africa and should allow for another year of very poor production. We are staring at a modest deficit this coming season and a potential for a major deficit coming for 2022/2023. Smart Money remains largely neutral as prices reach overhead resistance and are set up for a correction. We will be looking for an opportunity to buy as this market may be one of our favorites for the 2022 season.

SUGAR PRICE ANALYSIS-Smart Money Smart Money Remains Bearish

March 2022 Sugar Prices Remain in an Ascending Channel Pattern with $20 Price Level Target Having Been Reached. A top grows Nearer

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Sugar Synopsis (Combined Smart Money Ranking -2; Long-Term SM Ranking -3; Short term SM Ranking 1)

Unlike tree crops like coffee, oranges and cocoa, the sugar crop is essentially a weed and can quickly revive with good moisture and has very few long-term effects. With very good rains falling in the sugar areas of Brazil and with very good crops starting to be harvested in India and Thailand, it is hard to see why the sugar market has a need to head higher from current levels. We are expecting a sizeable rebound in exportable supplies coming out of Brazil next season and this should alleviate the current supply pinch for now. Having said that, El Niko like cocoa is a barn burner to the upside for sugar as India and Thailand tend to suffer drought like conditions and hence this is a market that could have a surge higher in the back half of 2022. For now, sugar producers should me making cash sales while traders and investors should wait for a technical confirmation of a top. Coffee Price Analysis

Smart Money Has Moved into Neutral/Negative Territory March 22 Coffee Prices Remain in Strong Uptrend with $240 Resistance as the next Stop

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Coffee Synopsis (Combined Smart Money Ranking -1; Long-Term SM Ranking -1; Short term SM Ranking 0)

The rains we have been forecasting to occur in the first half of October have begun and will set off the first main flowering of the season for the core Brazilian Coffee crop. This is the moment of truth that helps clarify the extent and the nature of last year’s 1 in 100-year drought and first double frost in 26 years. We will be traveling to Brazil to do a crop tour from October 20th-the 28th to see for ourselves what the flowering really looks like not only from a volume perspective but also from a condition’s perspective. Historically weak trees will be very vulnerable to aborting some of these flowers especially if the follow-on weather is less than ideal. Our advanced weather work predicts that a hot dry pattern will emerge in the back half of October in early November before rains return. This has the nightmare scenario where a very small flowering occurs and then the follow-on rains do not occur that along with heat coming back simply put the coffee trees over the edge and this small first flowering gets even smaller from abortion of flowers. This will all, be happening at a time that certified stocks have started to fall as we warned would be a key metric in pinpointing when the supply scarcity trade might be underway. If the shortfall for the upcoming crops is as large as we suspect, then we have not even gotten close to what will be needed to Ration coffee demand to account for it. We will try to update everyone regularly on our crop tour and provide real time intelligence on the ground. End users should be protecting upside price risks at this time. Traders should be looking to buy on any breaks into mid-October on the improved rainfall in Brazil.

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Coffee Certified Stocks Have Started to Crash Providing Evidence the Supply Scarcity Trade Has Already Begun

Lumber Price Analysis-Smart Money

Smart Money Has Moved to modest Bullish Territory

January Lumber Prices Have Developed and Bearish Continuation Wedge Pattern that Completes in November

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Lumber Synopsis (Combined Smart Money Ranking 1; Long-Term SM Ranking 0; Short term SM Ranking 1)

A warm fall period should allow for an active building season as home prices remain very profitable to build. But this will be very short lived. As we move into November with an early start to a long 6-month arduous winter season construction activity will come to a crashing halt well into the late spring 2022 season. This will have the effect of backing up lumber supplies due to delayed construction and causing another swoon in prices. Producers should be looking to cash sell on any bounces to the $700-$750 area. Traders should sit in the sidelines

Oats Price Analysis Smart Money is in Neutral

March 22 Oats Prices Have Reached Upside Targets Near $600. A correction from this Lofty Level is

Likely here

Oats Synopsis

(Combined Smart Money Ranking 0; Long-Term SM Ranking 0; Short term SM Ranking 0)

We had a failed crop in Canada with a new price insensitive demand base in oats milk that keeps chasing the oats price higher. This new demand base is a force that the oats market has never had to deal with, and it is permanently changing the rules of engagement here with this market.

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Prices have to attract a huge increase in acres next season and then hope mother nature delivers a good crop. With higher fertilizer prices the oats market is an attritive crop to plant and should be able to attract all the acres it wants. The market is demand rationing the horse feed and oats foods segments of this market and for sure it is in fact doing that. At some point even the oats milk demand base will balk if prices get too high. Prices right now seem very stretched to us and look set up for a correction and consolidation heading into next spring. Producers should be making cash sales at this time. Traders should sit on the sidelines.

Orange Juice Price Analysis Smart Money Has Moved into Modest Bearish Territory

March 22 OJ Prices Have Broken Out Above Key Resistance and Look set the Move much Higher

Orange Juice Synopsis

(Combined Smart Money Ranking -2 Long-Term SM Ranking -1; Short term SM Ranking -1) Despite a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic it appears that Florida has escaped for a second year in row. While this fact has brought some short-term sellers into the market who were playing this hurricane thesis, the global tight supply demand fundamentals more than support this market in the $130-$140 area.

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Next on the docket will be the Florida frost season that begins in December and runs through the first half of February. Like Brazil, the probabilities for a Florida frost this season are much higher than normal given the likelihood of repeated polar vortex events that could push extreme cold air deep into the SE and into Central Florida citrus belt. This market remains on pins and needles and cannot afford anything but perfection. The orange crop in Brazil like coffee is already comprised for their next growing cycle and won’t be able to alleviate the current shortage. End users should be protecting upside price risks at this time and traders should consider positioning to the upside as well.

Strong US Demand Post Virus Has Moved Volumes Back to Levels Not seen Since 2016. A Cold Winter Mean Increase demand for OJ. A Severe Supply Pinch Is Expected this Winter

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Rice Price Analysis Smart Money is Neutral

January 22 Rice Prices appear to be completing a Volatile bullish Triangle Pattern with Breakout

potential

Rice Synopsis


Everything points to much higher rice prices in the year ahead. With high fertilizer prices there will be huge headwinds for planted acreage and yields globally over the next crop cycle. Add to this the shortage of higher quality wheat and the shortage of corn feed and the demand for rice for human consumption and for animal feed is going to go through the roof. Rice is cheap against overall commodities and against wheat itself. Smart Money remains largely neutral providing ample cover for a move to higher prices. A bullish chart pattern does call for one more minor correction heading into November and then it looks like it is lights out to the upside. End users should be protecting upside price risks at this time. Traders should be looking to buy on any break into the $13.50 area. Unfortunately, call options are not liquid enough it utilizes here like they are in the corn market.

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Milk Price Analysis-Smart Money Strong Smart Money Remains in a Strong Buy Signal

December Class III Milk Prices Look Poised to Move to the $19 Area After Holding at Key Support

at $17 and Reaching Oversold for the first time since April of 2020

Milk Synopsis


We remain hyper bullish the milk market at this time for both class III and Class IV. A severe milk shortage in China bodes well for record imports into China especially for milk powder. Global production has stalled at a time of escalating costs. As we move into the extreme winter season the demand for dairy products is going to be very strong indeed given dairy represents the cheapest forms of protein available to budget constrained consumers. For a more detailed analysis and specific recommendations please subscribe to our flagship Hackett Dairy Report by going to the link below to our website: https://www.hackettadvisors.com/subscribe. Asp

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Cattle Price Analysis Smart Money Buying is Rapidly Approaching a Buy Signal

April 22 Cattle Prices Are Crashing and Are Nearing the Ideal Window for a low in October at the

key $130 support Area.

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Smart Money Cattle




Cattle Analysis (Combined Smart Money Ranking 4; Long-Term SM Ranking 3; Short term SM Ranking 1)

Parabolic Smart Money buying in the cattle market bodes well for an important October bottom. We are widely bullish deferred cattle prices once the current correction runs its course is it soon should. The thinning of animals that has already occurred this season on herd liquidation due to drought and high feed prices and the further thinning out a severe winter will inflict on the cattle ranchers sets up a supply vacuum from the spring of 2022 onward. End users should be protecting upside price risks on deferred cattle prices and traders should get ready to buy as the $130 April support level gets reached and a buy signal by Smart Money gets triggered.

Lean Hogs-Smart Money Smart Money Remains Bearish

April 22 Hog Prices Have Reached Key Resistance and are Due for a Correction

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Lean Hogs Synopsis (Combined Smart Money Ranking -3; Long-Term SM Ranking -3; Short term SM Ranking 0)

We remain bearish the lean hog market heading int the end of the year. Smart Money remains on the bearish side with chart resistance having been reached. While the hogs and pigs report showed a shockingly lower number of animals in the US than was expected that has sent prices storming upward in recent days, this does not change the fact that the hog market has a demand problem from a lack of Chinese imports at a time that US consumer budgets are getting squeezed by inflation. We are more optimistic as we move into the first half of 2022 and the Chinese hog herd attempts to rebuild for a second time which will cause a huge vacuum of domestic pork supply from this year’s herd liquidation, but that time is not now. Hog producers should be cash selling this market heading into the first quarter of 2022. Traders should sit on the sidelines.

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If you have any questions about any of the content in this report, please call me at (888) 535-5525 or e-mail me at [email protected] . Thank you for reading and I hope your future investment decisions turn out to be prosperous ones.

Best Regards,

Shawn Hackett, President

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