The Horizon ReportThe Horizon Report

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Malcolm B. Brown, Dartmouth CollegeJulie K. Little, EDUCAUSE Learning Initiative

5 June 2008, E-Live!

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Today’s SessionToday’s Session

1. History and Purpose

2. The Process

3. Inside the Horizon Report

4. Putting the Horizon Report to Work for You

1History and Purpose of the

Horizon Report

1History and Purpose of the

Horizon Report

HistoryHistory

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5 Annual Reports

(2004-2008)

Intended for Institutional Leadership(brief format)

Released under

Language translations

introduced ‘07 (Spanish & Catalan)

Evolution of StructureKey Trends & Critical Challenges (‘06)

Metatrends (‘08)Horizon Project Community (wiki & tags)

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Chris Lott: http://www.flickr.com/photos/fncll/2233514275/

5 Years of the Horizon Report  5 Years of the Horizon Report  

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Purpose    Purpose    

It’s a forecast targeting six emerging technologies considered on three different adoption "horizons."

In the next year

In 2-3 years

In 4-5 years

2Preparing the Horizon Report

2Preparing the Horizon Report

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Core FocusCore Focus

• Teaching

• Learning

• Creative Expression

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Core questionCore question

What six emerging technologies or practices will likely enter into mainstream use in the next one to five years?

What six emerging technologies or

practices will likely enter into

mainstream use in the next

one to five years?

Step 1Step 1

• Assemble Advisory Board

• Set up collaboratory

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Variety of perspectivesVariety of perspectives

• Adobe Systems• Apple, Inc• California State Monterey Bay• Case Western• CNI• Cornell University• Dartmouth College• Educause Learning Initiative• Forbes, Inc.• Hong Kong U of Science and Tech• IBM Almaden Research Center• Information Week• JISC (UK)• MIT• UC Berkeley• Nagoya University (Japan)

• New Media Consortium• New York University• NITLE• Ohio State • Qatar Academy (Qatar)• Stanford • Texas State University• U Maryland• Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (Spain)• U of British Columbia (Canada)• U of Mary Washington• U of Missouri-Kansas City• U of Queensland (Australia)• U of Wollongong (Australia)• Westwood Schools Camilla

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Step 2Step 2

Systematic review of emerging technologies and practices

Step 3Step 3

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Research questions: placing emerging technology into the T/L/CE context

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What established technologies should be in use today?

What established consumer technologies should be candidates for deployment?

What are the key emerging technologies for the 3-5 year horizon?

What are our key challenges over the next five years?

What are the key trends that will shape us?

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Step 4Step 4

Reponses and research results sorted into adoption horizons

Near-term horizon (1 year or

less)

Near-term horizon (1 year or

less)

Medium-term

horizon (2-3 years)

Medium-term

horizon (2-3 years)

Long-term horizon (4-5 years)

Long-term horizon (4-5 years)

Step 5Step 5Near-term horizon (1 year or

less)

Near-term horizon (1 year or

less)

Medium-term

horizon (2-3 years)

Medium-term

horizon (2-3 years)

Long-term horizon (4-5 years)

Long-term horizon (4-5 years)

Short list of 12Short list of 12

Final 6Final 6 16

80 candidates80 candidates

3Inside the 2008 Horizon Report

3Inside the 2008 Horizon Report

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2008 HR: Grassroots Video    2008 HR: Grassroots Video    

• Time to adoption: Within a year• Tools for creating video are easer

(and cheaper) to use• Implications for HiEd• Examples: 

– Faculty-created video: Mobius Transformations Revealed Arnold & Rogness, University of Minnesota 

– Student-created video: "What would your ideal education look like?" ELI 2008 Annual Meeting Student Content Showcase

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2008 HR: Social Operating Systems    

2008 HR: Social Operating Systems    

• Time to adoption: 4-5 years

• Applications that bring together information and services based on a single contact

• Implications for HiEd

• Examples:– Team ORCA at Carnegie Mellon

– Yahoo Prototype

4Putting the Horizon Report to

Work for You

4Putting the Horizon Report to

Work for You

The HR is about innovationThe HR is about innovation

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• Describes new and emerging practices and technology

• Describes “change forces”

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You can participate; it’s 2.0You can participate; it’s 2.0

• Comment on the 2008 Report: – http://wp.nmc.org/horizon2008/

• Contribute to the ongoing research agenda: – http://horizon.nmc.org/wiki/Research_Agenda

• Contribute to the del.icio.us tagging:– http://del.icio.us/tag/hz08+video– http://del.icio.us/tag/hz08+virtualcollab

– http://del.icio.us/tag/hz08+mobile etc.

• Nominate someone for the Advisory Board– http://horizon.nmc.org/wiki/Nominees_for_the_2009_Horizon

_Project_Advisory_Board

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Can jump start the innovation process

Can jump start the innovation process

Offers likely targets for innovation

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Jump startingJump starting

Analyze any of the highlighted technologies for its adoption potential at your institution

Jump startingJump starting

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Take any one of the technologies and ask:– what is missing for this technology or practice

to be implemented at your institution?– what kind of additional research needs to be

done concerning this technology?– what would be the ramifications and

opportunities for learning if this technology were adopted?

Spawn local HR-like processesSpawn local HR-like processes

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• Local study groups

• Virtual study groups– K-12 student annotations– Flat classroom

• Follow up on the leads in the HR

• Participate in the del.icio.us tagging cloud

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2008 Horizon Report for Museums

2008 Horizon Report for Australia and Australasia

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Use to support proposalsUse to support proposals

• Local funding requests

• Foundations and funding agencies

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Strategic planningStrategic planning

• Medium and longer term horizons

• Trends and challenges

• Example sites

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Distribute locallyDistribute locally

• Senior administrators

• Key partners

• Key planners

URLs and resourcesURLs and resources

• Download the Report– EDUCAUSE– New Media Consortium

• Web version• Horizon Project wiki• Horizon Report

methodology• Short list for 2008

Report

• Localizations– Australia and Australasia– Museums– K-12 annotation project– Flat Classroom

• Horizon Project call to scholarship

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Thank you!Thank you!

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Questions?

Comments?