the icelandic labour market in numbers eures conference in june 2007 karl sigurdsson
TRANSCRIPT
The Icelandic labour market in
numbers
Eures Conference in June 2007
Karl Sigurdsson
Key figures 2006 from the labour market survey of Statistics IcelandWorking age population Ca. 210,000
Labour force (16-74) 174,600
Participation rate 83.1%
Number of unemployed 5,000
Unemployment 2.9%
Working hours average 42.4
Working hours- full time 47.2
Source: Statistics Iceland
Participation rate 16-74 years by age
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Total 16-24 years 25-54 years 55-74 yearsSource: Statistics Iceland
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Icelan
d
Sweden
Korea
Japa
n
Norway
New Z
ealan
d
United
Stat
es
Mex
ico
Portug
al
United
King
dom
Canad
a
Denmark
Austra
lia
Turke
y
Greece Spa
in
Finlan
d
Poland
German
y
Hollan
dIta
ly
Czech
Rep
ublic
France Belg
ium
Luxem
bour
g
OECD-total
Participation rate of 60-64 years old
in labour force in 2004
Source: Eurostat and more
Working hours 16-74 years by gender and areas
30
35
40
45
50
55
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Total Men Women Capital area Other areas
Source: Statistics Iceland
Unemployment in 2006, by gender, age and area. (Labour market research).
Total Capital area Other areas
Total 2.9 3.0 2.6
16-24 years 8.2 7.7 9.6
25-54 years 1.8 2.0 1.5
55-74 years 1.5 1.8 1.0
Male 2.7 3.0 2.2
16-24 years 8.9 8.4 10.0
25-54 years 1.7 2.0 1.1
55-74 years 1.0 1.3 0.6
Female 3.1 3.1 3.0
16-24 years 7.6 7.0 9.2
25-54 years 2.0 2.1 1.9
55-74 years 2.1 2.3 1.7
Source: Statistics Iceland
Unemployment in end of year 2006 in EU and some other countries
Source: Eurostat and more
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Ice
lan
d
De
nm
ark
Ne
the
rlan
ds
No
rwa
y
Jap
an
Est
on
ia
Ire
lan
d
US
A
Au
stria
Cyp
rus
Lu
xem
bu
rg
Slo
ven
ia
UK
Lith
ua
nia
Sw
ed
en
La
tvia
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Italy
Ma
lta
Po
rtu
ga
l
Fin
lan
d
EB
Be
lgiu
m
Hu
ng
ary
Ge
rma
ny
Ro
ma
nia
Bu
lga
ria
Sp
ain
Fra
nce
Gre
ece
Slo
vaki
a
Po
lan
d
Unemployment 1997-2007 (registered)
1,31,3
2,1
3,13,4
2,5
1,41,31,9
2,8
3,9
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%19
97
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year average
Monthly
Unemployment trends by age
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
maí.02
sep.0
2
jan.03
maí.03
sep.0
3
jan.04
maí.04
sep.0
4
jan.05
maí.05
sep.0
5
jan.06
maí.06
sep.0
6
jan.07
maí.07
16-24 years
25-54 years
55-70 years
Unemployment in capital area and other areas
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
maí.02ág
ú.02
nóv.0
2feb
.03maí.
03ág
ú.03
nóv.0
3feb
.04maí.
04ág
ú.04
nóv.0
4feb
.05maí.
05ág
ú.05
nóv.0
5feb
.06maí.
06ág
ú.06
nóv.0
6feb
.07maí.
07
Total Capital area Other areas
Unemployment by gender and areas
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
maí.04
júl.04se
p.04nó
v.04jan
.05
mar.05maí.
05júl.
05se
p.05nó
v.05jan
.06
mar.06maí.
06júl.
06se
p.06nó
v.06jan
.07
mar.07maí.
07
Men capital area Men other areasWomen capital area Women other areas
Unemployment by economic activity
0,8%
2,1%
2,4%
1,5%
0,3%
0,9%
1,5%
2,3%
1,3%
0,4%
1,2%
0,8%
1,0%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Agriculture
Fishing
Fish processing
Manufacturing
Electr./water supply
Construction
Wholesale, retail trade
Hotels, restaurants
Transport, communic.
Financial interm.
Real estate/business
Public sector-educ-healt
Other services
2004
2005
2006
Unemployment by education
2,3%
0,4%
0,6%
0,6%
1,1%
1,0%
0,7%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Primary education
Vocational education
Engineering /navigation
Apprenticeship
Business college
matriculation examination
Higher education
2004
2005
2006
Why is labour contribution and participation so high in Iceland?
Strong work ethic in Icelandic culture Essential that everybody contributes to the
smooth operation of the society Great demand for labour linked to small size of
economy Difficult to “get lost” outside of labour market
in small population Wages low compared to high cost of living and
high living standards Benefit system has not been as comprehensive
as in at least the other Nordic countries
Employed people by economic activity, average 2005-2006
Number
Agriculture 5.900Fishing 4.600 6,3%
Fish processing 4.400Manufacturing, except fish pr. 16.200Electricity & water supply 1.500Construction 13.600 21,6%
Wholesale, retail trade, repairs 23.100Hotels, restaurants 5.700Transport, communication 11.900Financial intermediation 6.900Real estate & business activ. 15.000 37,8%
Public administration 8.800Education 12.200Health sevices, social work 24.600 27,6%
Other services and n.s. 11.000
Total 165.400Source: Statistics Iceland
3,6%
2,8%
2,7%
9,8%
0,9%
8,2%
14,0%
3,4%
7,2%
4,2%
9,1%
5,3%
7,4%
14,9%
6,7%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Number of employed people 1991-2006 by economic activity
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Agric./Fishing
Manuf. & Constr.
Services
Upswing/depression, emigration and import of labour
Interaction between economical changes and emigration
Import of foreign labour to Iceland Number of foreign citizens in Iceland Some questions:
Who are coming to Iceland? From where? Men or women? Background? Doing what? Which jobs? Staying in Iceland og leaving?
Speculations Demand for labour is the most important factor
determining number of foreigners entering Icelandic labour market
Government policies and the legal framework controls which foreignes arrive in Iceland. Employment policy has the greatest effects on import of labour
– the expansion last years not possible without this import. The reason for immigrants coming to Iceland is the demand for
labour – go to Iceland to find job and get higher wages. The situation and development in many ways different from
that in the other Nordic countries – not many refugees, mostly working people, few whole families, few children.
Immigrants are for the biggest part people from EEA. Unemployment very low despite this import of foreign labour,
lower among immigrants than native people.
Number of foreigners in Iceland, 1981-2006
6%
10%
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Foreign citizens
Born abroad
Source: Statistics Iceland
Net migration to/from Iceland last 20 years compared with unemployment trends
Source: Statistics Iceland and Directorate of Labour
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Ne
t m
igra
tio
n
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t
Net migration
Unemployment
Foreign citizens on the labour market in the Nordic countries as proportion
of labour force 2001-2005
Source: Statistical bureaus in the Nordic countries
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Finland
Denmark
Norway
Iceland
Sweden
*Figures for 2006 are estimated. Also figures for Sweden in 2005
New temporary work permits + registrations from NMS 2006 and
2007
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Registrations from NMS
New temp. work permits
New temporary work permits 2005 and up to 1. May 2006 by citizenship
Number Percent
Poland 3.655 46%
Lithuania 492 6%
China 365 5%
Latvia 264 3%
Slovakia 195 2%
Romania 135 2%
USA 131 2%
Serbia 116 1%
Philippines 112 1%
Other countries 640 8%
Total 6.105 100%
New temporary work permits 2005 and up to 1. May 2006 by sectors and occup.
sectors N %
Agriculture 139 2%
Fishing 117 2%
Fish processing 548 9%
Meat industry 154 3%
Manufacturing 440 7%
Construction 3.549 58%
Wholesale, trade 597 10%
Hotels, restaurants … 442 7%
Health serv. / education 155 3%
Total 6.141 100%
occupations N %
Legisl./managers 311 5%
Services 240 4%
Fishermen 26 0%
Craftsmen 1.413 23%
Specialized trade workers 776 13%
Plant/machine operators 395 6%
Elementary occupation 2.781 45%
Sportsmen / trainers 111 2%
Dancers 144 2%
Total 6.197 100%
New temporary work permits 2005 and up to 1. May 2006 by gender
Male Female
Agriculture 2% 4%
Fishing 1% 5%
Fish processing 5% 24%
Meat industry 2% 5%
Manufacturing 8% 4%
Construction 70% 6%
Wholesale, trade 8% 19%
Hotels, restaurants … 4% 23%
Health serv. / education 1% 10%
Fjöldi 4.887 1.157
Male Female
Legisl./managers 5% 7%
Services 2% 14%
Fishermen 0% 0%
Craftsmen 28% 1%
Specialized trade work. 14% 7%
Plant/machine operat. 8% 1%
Elementary occupation 43% 55%
Sportsmen / trainers 1% 3%
Dancers 0% 12%
Fjöldi 4.934 1.165
New temporary work permits 2005 and up to 1. May 2006 by age and gender
Number Percent Male Female
16-29 years 2.040 33% 27% 60%
30-39 years 1.808 29% 31% 23%
40-49 years 1.551 25% 28% 10%
50 years and over 775 13% 14% 6%
Total 6.174 100% 100% 100%
Total labour force working in power-intensive industry projects in Iceland
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
4. á
rsfj.
2005
1. á
rsfj.
2006
2. á
rsfj.
2006
3. á
rsfj.
2006
4. á
rsfj.
2006
1. á
rsfj.
2007
2. á
rsfj.
2007
3. á
rsfj.
2007
4. á
rsfj.
2007
1. á
rsfj.2
008
2.ár
sfj.2
008
3.ár
sfj.2
008
4.ár
sfj.2
008
Stjórnun /sérfr.
Ýmsir iðn.menn
Verkamenn
Bílstjórar-vélamenn
Labour force building the power plant at Kárahnjúkar (Impregilo)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
4. á
rsfj.
2005
1. á
rsfj.
2006
2. á
rsfj.
2006
3. á
rsfj.
2006
4. á
rsfj.
2006
1. á
rsfj.
2007
2. á
rsfj.
2007
3. á
rsfj.
2007
4. á
rsfj.
2007
1. á
rsfj.
2008
2. á
rsfj.
2008
3.ár
sfj.2
008
4.ár
sfj.2
008
Stjórnun /sérfr.
Ýmsir iðn.menn
Verkamenn
Bílstjórar-vélamenn
Labour force building aluminium smelter at Reyðarfjordur
0
500
1000
1500
2000
4. á
rsfj.
2005
1. á
rsfj.
2006
2. á
rsfj.
2006
3. á
rsfj.
2006
4. á
rsfj.
2006
1. á
rsfj.
2007
2. á
rsfj.
2007
3. á
rsfj.
2007
4. á
rsfj.
2007
1. á
rsfj.
2008
Stjórnun /sérfr.
Ýmsir iðn.menn
Verkamenn
Bílstjórar-vélamenn
Towards a landing Coming quarters: adjustment towards stability, but little sign of
contraction. Still for the first time in 5 years, private consumption has dropped as have investments.
Conclusion of current power-intensive industry projects, delay in the commencement of new projects, slowdown in housing construction.
Bleak outlook in fisheries – quota in cod cut by 30% ? Export will increase significantly due to increased aluminium
production. Likely that we will see some reduction in labour demand the next
months as the market will be adjusting after the upswing the last years.
GDP growth is expected to be around 0 this year, but to pick up again and be around 2% in years 2008 and 2009, but unemployment is supposed to increase and be up to 4.5% in 2009.
Expectations of managers of the biggest companies are positive for the moment, but more doubtful looking 6 months ahead.