the ikarus instruments d. martinsen, v. krey, p. markewitz, s. vögele
DESCRIPTION
The IKARUS Instruments D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH 52425 Jülich Germany. IKARUS Instruments. Structure of the IKARUS Energy System. >. j. Long Term Energy Supply Time period 2 - 5 decades - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
The IKARUS Instruments
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
52425 Jülich Germany
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Level of Analysis Data Method Results National Economy
Development of Population Economy Energy policy
Input/Output model with a disaggregated energy sector
Input/Output-table with relational supply
Energy demand
Energy Economy
Development of Energy costs Energy demand Technology and
potentials
Optimization model Total balances of Energy carriers Emissions Costs
Sectors Sector specific information about
Policy Economy Technology and
potentials
Simulation models for Space heating Industry Transport
Sector balances of Energy carriers Emissions Costs
BATABASE
IKARUS Instruments
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Import of Other Oils
Primary production
Import of Coals
Import of Nuc. Fuels
Energy Conversion and Transport Final Consumption
Import of Crude Oil
REG-Sources
Coal-Extraction
Import of Gas
ProductionIndustry
Non-Energy Consumpt.
Households
Transport Sector
SmallConsumer
CHPDecentral
Central CHP
Gas-Extraction
Power Plants
Transport/Distrtibution
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Electricity
District Heat
Coal
Crude Oil
Fuel Oils
Gasoline
Diesel & Kerosene
Transport/Distrtibution
Transport/Distrtibution
Housing Space
Number of Emploees
Freight- and Passenger Transport
Import of Electrity
Refinery
Demand
Demand for Raw Materials
Structure of the IKARUS Energy System
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
ST R U C T U R E
g , X
g i: Σ a ijX j = b i; Σ c jX j = M in
a , b , c
O ptim izer (M O P S)
R esu lts-p rocessing
P resen ta tion of resu lts
D A T A G en era l d ata D em an d , Im p ortp r ices B ou n d s T ech n ica l data (C osts, E m ission s,
E nergy carriers)
C a. 3000 V ariab les
C a . 2000 E q u ations
C a . 200000 data for po in ts in tim e: 2000 ,(2005),2010 , 2020 ,2030
M atrix - generator
U ser-ch an ges (L ogfile)
>j
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Long Term Energy SupplyTime period 2 - 5 decades
Perfect foresight LP-Model MARKAL with IKARUS-Data
1 ............ Optimum ........... n
Time-step LP-Model IKARUS-Model Opt. Opt. Opt. Opt.
1 .......... i-1 i n
„Forecast “ or Projection. Interaction without Iteration. „Sudden“ Changes. Flexibility or „Lost opportunities“.
Heritage (Capacities)Corrections of data (z.B. load, η)
(Elasticities, Learning and Order of scale,...)
DynamicsMIS-Model
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Relative Specific Space-heat Demand for old Single-Family-Houses
100
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100P
res
en
t
Wi1
Rf1
Wi2
Rf2
Wi1
Rf1
Wi1
Rf2
Wi2
Rf2
Wi1
OW
1
Wi1
OW
2
Wi1
OW
3
Wi2
OW
3
Wi1
OW
1R
f1
Wi1
OW
2R
f1
Wi1
OW
3R
f1
Wi1
OW
2R
f2
Wi2
OW
3R
f2
Wi1
OW
2R
f2B
t1
Wi1
OW
2R
f2B
t2
Wi2
OW
3R
f2B
t2
Wi3
OW
3R
f2B
t2
Sp
ac
e h
ea
t d
em
an
d
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Av
era
ge
an
nu
al c
ap
ac
ity
loa
d
Cat-1
Measures of Insulation
Cat-5
Cat-4
Cat-3
Cat-2
Wi = Window Rf = RoofOW = Outer wall Bt = Basement
Corresponding capacity loadof central heating system
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Relevant numbers Annual changes in %/a
Unit
2000 2010 2020 2030 2000/10 2010/20 2020/30
Population Mio. 81 .99 81..50 80.34 77.98 -0.06 -0.14 -0.30
Number of households Mio. 37.5 38.5 38.80 38.10 0.26 0.08 -0.18
Persons per Household Number 2.19 2.12 2.07 2.05 -0.32 -0.22 -0.12
Apartments Mio. 36.82 39.64 41.60 43.08 0.74 0.48 0.35 Apartments per 1000 Households Number 982 1030 1072 1131 0.48 0.41 0.53
Total floor space Mio. m2 3116.5 3408.6 3637.1 3838.6 0.90 0.65 0.54
Floor space per Capita. m2 38.0 41.8 45.3 49.2 0.96 0.80 0.84
Size of single-family house m2 105.95 108.31 110.62 113.43 0.22 0.21 0.25
Size of multi-family house m2 65.94 66.45 66.88 67.35 0.08 0.06 0.07
Number of employed Mio. 37.54 37.34 37 34.92 -0.05 -0.09 -0.58
Gross domestic product 109 € (95) 1963.8 2366.7 2797.5 3189.6 1.88 1.69 1.32
GDP per Capita € 23951 29039 34821 40903 1.94 1.83 1.62
Value added industry 109 € 362.65 440.65 507.68 585.21 1.97 1.43 1.43
Demographic and overall Economic Data
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Relevant numbers Annual changes in %/a Area
Unit 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000/10 2010/20 2020/30
Passenger traffic1) Billion Pkm 926 1025 1116 1190 1.01 0.85 0.65
Freight traffic Billion tkm 489 613 750 889 2.29 2.04 1.71
Demand of Passenger and Freight Traffic
1) without pedestrians and cyclists. Air traffic: Domestic concept
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Prices in €/GJ (2000) Annual changes in %/a Energy carrier
2000 2010 2020 2030 2000/10 2010/20 2020/30
Hard coal 1.32 1.76 1.80 1.87 2.90 0.22 0.42
Crude oil 5.32 4.39 4.49 4.68 -1.9 0.23 0.42
Gazoline 7.06 6.28 6.51 6.79 -1.15 0.36 0.42
Diesel 6.95 5.45 5.61 5.85 -2.41 0.30 0.42
Domestic fuel oil 6.95 5.45 5.61 5.85 -2.41 0.30 0.42
Residual fuel oil 5.06 3.51 3.60 3.75 -3.58 0.23 0.42
Natural gas A 3.27 3.65 3.82 3.98 1.09 0.46 0.42
Natural gas B 4.11 4.56 4.77 4.97 1.04 0.46 0.42
In comparison with lignite 1.44 1.51 1.64 1.68 0.48 0.83 0.25
Future Prices for Imported Energy Carriers
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Unit 2000 2010 2020 2030
Domestic hard coal PJ 1005 > 300 (-) (-)
Import of hard coal PJ 910 < 1800 < 2400 < 3000
> 800 > 800 > 800 Extraction of lignite PJ 1521
< 1600 <1500 < 1400
Domestic natural gas PJ 633 < 700 < 600 < 500
Imported natural gas A PJ 2683 < 4000 < 4000 < 4000
Imported natural gas B PJ < 4000 < 4000 < 4000
Wind power GW 5.9 > 12 > 12 > 12
Nuclear power plants GWnetto 22.2 18.3 7.8 0
Important Bounds concerning Energy Policy and Quantity Potentials
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Energy Scenarios for Germany 2000 - 2030:
• Reference scenario
• CO2-scenarios:
1. „Innovation+Saving“Imposing various technical (measures of improvements) and economic guidelines in order to advance innovation and energy saving (for example by laws or subsidies)
1. „Reduction Scenario“Giving boundary conditions (CO2 constraint) only and leaving to the energy system to decide which options should be chosen to fulfill these conditions
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Projection of Primary Energy in the Reference Scenario
14539
13887
12952
12257
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ
Lignite- 40%
Hard coal -10,-15,+4%
Oil- 7%
Gas+ 11%
Renewables+ 25%
Nuclear
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
CO2-Emissions in Germany
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mio
. t
Reference-scenario
Reduction-scenario
1990 - 2002 *
*Temperature corrected values
-15%-19%
- 21%- 21%
- 23%
- 40%
- 31%
190 Mio. t
0
Innovation+Saving
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Savings* of final energy in the scenario "Innovation+Saving"
69 156 192177
139215
285
495
633269
590
609
1649-18%*
1381-15%*
799- 8%*
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ
Transport
Household
Small consumers
Industry
* Compared to reference scenario
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
CO2-Reduction* in the Reduction scenario
190 Mio. t- 23,9%
108 Mio. t- 13,5%
44 Mio. t- 5,4%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2000 2010 2020 2030
Mio
. t
Industry: -12,3% 12 Mio t
* Compared to reference scenario
- 23% - 40%- 31% as compared to 1990
Conversion: - 41,9% 135 Mio t (Incl. Power-and heat station: 124 Mio t)
Small consumer: -17,8% 9 Mio t
Household: -21,9% 22 Mio t
Transport: -5,5% 12 Mio t
71%
75%
65%
11%
15%
20%
Share:
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Costs of CO2-Reduction in the Reduction Scenario
19.2
25.8
32.5
0.8
6.2
2.8
+10.2
+4.6
+1.5
- 4.0
- 1.8- 0.7
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2010 2020 2030
Av
era
ge
co
sts
€/t
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
An
nu
al a
dd
itio
na
l co
sts
109 €
/a
Technical changes
Saving of primary energy
Cumulated additional costs 98 Billion Euro
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Demand of Space Heat in Household, old Buildings 2030
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
PJ
Total savingincludingLost potentialfor "Sudden"
District heat
Renewables
Electricity
Gas
Oil
Coal
Reference scenario
Suddenconstraint
Smoothconstraint
MaximumSaving
CO2-ConstraintScenarios
- 38%
- 10%
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Capacity and Load of Power Plants
Price jump of oil+gas after 2020
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2000 2010 2020 2030
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Capacity lignite Capacity hard coal
Capacity gas
MWAnnualLoad
Price increase of oil+gas 2000 - 2030
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2000 2010 2020 2030
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Load lignite Load hard coal
Load gas
MWAnnualLoad
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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ElectricityNatural GasOil + Products
F
D
NL
B
L
DK
PL
CZ SK
A H
SLO
CH
I
EP
UKIRL
Energy-related Infrastructure in Western and Central Europe
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
End of Presentation
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Additional Slides
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Costs of CO2-Reduction in the Year 2030
1.12.3
6.2
16.5
37.5
10.316.8
32.5
68.5
129.0
0
1020
3040
5060
7080
90100
110120
130140
150
- 31% - 35% - 40% - 45% - 50%
Reduction compared to 1990
Av
era
ge
co
sts
€/t
0
10
20
30
40
50
An
nu
al a
dd
. co
sts
109 €
/a
Shp: 20
Shp: 630
Shp: 95 L
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Electricity Production
537 536 531 524 517 526 517
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
TWh
Industry
CHPS
Others
PV
Wind
Hydro
Nat.gas
Oil
Hard coal
Lignite
Nuclear
Base load
22%
39%
18%
2000 2010 2020 20302000 2010 2020 2030
Reference Reduction
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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Products (Mill. ton) Annual changes in %/a Product
2000 2010 2020 2030 2000/10 2010/20 2020/30
Cement 36.05 35.05 34.55 33.53 -0.28 -0.14 -0.30
Lime 7.26 6.90 6.50 6.00 -0.51 -0.60 -0.80
Brick 17.00 16.90 16.00 15.60 -0.06 -0.55 -0.25
Glass 6.61 6.78 6.90 6.95 0.26 0.18 0.07
Sugar 4.30 4.50 4.58 4.45 0.45 0.18 -0.30
Rolled steel 38.97 36.10 35.90 34.80 -0.76 -0.06 -0.31
Crude steel 30.85 26.23 23.25 20.46 -1.61 -1.20 -1.27
Electric steel 13.32 14.69 17.03 18.60 0.98 1.49 0.88
Aluminium 0.64 0.65 0.20 0.00 0.09 -11.12 -100.00
Development of some Industrial Products
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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Primary Energy 200214320 PJ
Hard coal13%
Lignite12%
Oil36%
Gas22%
Nuclear13%
Hydro/Wind1%
Others3%
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Final Energy 2000 in PJ
26.1% 25.2%
16.1% 16.5%
28.1% 30.2%
29.7%28.1%
97759243
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Actual Corrected
Traffic
Residence
Small consumer
Industry
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Primary Energy 2000 in PJ
14.0% 13.8%
10.8% 10.8%
38.2% 37.2%
21.1% 22.3%
12.9% 12.8%
3.0% 3.1%14354 14650
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Actual Corrected
Renew./Others
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Lignite
Hard coal
Final Energy 2000 in PJ
5.4%5.3%
43.8%44.4%
26.8%25.8%
19.9%
18.7%
3.9%
3.6%
2.1%
2.2%
9775
9243
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Actual Corrected
Others
District heat
Electricity
Gas
Oil
Coal
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
CO2 Emissions in Germany 2002834 million tons
Conversion40%
Industry17%
Small consumer
6%
Residence14%
Traffic23%
Hard coal19%
Lignite22%
Oil37%
Gas22%
Others < 1%
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
984
950
902 892876 873
897865 857
829 831847
834
1010
918
893 896
869 866
848856 853 851
945
870877
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Actual values
Temperature corrected
Trend
Government target
Target 2005: 758 Mio. t (-25%)
Trend 2005: 850 Mio. t (-16%)
- 65 Mio.t
- 17 Mio.t/y
- 4 Mio.t/y
- 93 Mio.t = - 31 Mio.t/y
- 1 Mio.t/y
CO2 Emissions in Germany 1990 - 2002
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Fuel Consumptin for Cars Long-distance Passenger Traffic
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
L/1
00km Gazoline
Gazoline-Saving
Diesel
Diesel-Saving
H2-Fuel Cell *
-23%
- 1,3L-22%
* Gasoline equivalent
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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Specific Investment Costs for PV und WP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Eu
ro/k
W
PV
WP
2 kW
500 kW100 kW20 kW
1 MW onshore4,5 - 5,5 m/s
2 MW offshore8 - 9 m/s
- 45%
5000 - 7000
- 17- 30%1300 - 1900
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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Reference Scenario
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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Projection of CO2-Emissions in the Reference Scenario
796801822
864
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1000.0
2000 2010 2020 2030
Mio
. t
Conversion -11,-12,- 5%
Industry- 28%
Household- 33%
Small cons.- 19%
Transport+ 14%
- 42 ( -4,9%)- 63 ( -7,3%) - 68 (- 7,9%)
- 14,5% - 18,6% - 20,7% - 21,2%
1990: 1010 Mio. t*
Projection of Primary Energy in the Reference Scenario
14539
13887
12952
12257
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ
Lignite- 40%
Hard coal -10,-15,+4%
Oil- 7%
Gas+ 11%
Renewables+ 25%
Nuclear
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
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D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Projection of Final Energy in the Reference Scenario
9547- 0,1%
9393- 1,7%
9176- 4,0%
9557
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ
Industry: Structural changes - 10,8%
Small cons.: Structural changes. Slight measures of insulation - 17,8%
Household: Incr. gas-heating.First measures of insulation for old buildings within renovation. - 7,6%
Transport: Increase PT und FT, decr. spec. fuel-consumption.Incr. share of public transport PT and FT-rail. + 14,2%
Coal- 40%
Oil- 9 %
Gas+12%
Electr+1%
2000 2030
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Projection of Electricity Production in the Reference Scenario
537.2 536.3524.4 525.8 (- 2%)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030
TWh
Industry
CHP
Others
PV
Wind
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Hard coal
Lignite
Nuclear
+ 65%
- 18%
+324%
+152%
GL
Projection of Installed Net Capacityin the Reference Scenario
115.5 114.9
109.0 108.7 (- 6%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030
GW
Industry
CHP
Others
PV
Wind
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Hard coal
Lignite
Nuclear
27,9+ 12%
16,3- 18%
27,8+68%(CCP)
12 +100%
25
19,2
16,5
GL
CHP +37%
PV:1500MW
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Projection of Final Energy Demand for the Residential Sectorin the Reference Scenario
2786
2824+ 1,4%
2741- 1,6% 2574
- 7,6%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ
Coal products 0
Oil products - 52%
Gas + 15%
Electricity + 9%
Renewables - 37%
District heating +36%
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Projection of Passenger Transportin the Reference Scenario
926
1190+ 28%1116
+ 20%1025
+ 11%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2000 2010 2020 2030
10
9 Pkm
Airplane + 174%%
Railway + 129%
Bus + 134%
Car-Gasoline - 12%
Car-Diesel + 50%
+ 4
%
+ 3
%
+/-
0%
+ 3
6% + 8
8%
+14
1%
Projection of Freight Transportin the Reference Scenario
489
889+ 82%
750+ 53%
613+ 25%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2010 2020 2030
10
9 Tk
m
Airplane + 270%
Railway + 149%
Ship + 74%
Road (Truck) +68%
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Scenario: „Innovation + Saving“
The most important changes compared to the reference scenario:
Power plants Efficiency improvement 2 – 3 points.
Industry Measures of energy saving for production and utilization of process heat and electricity.
Small consumer Thermal insulation of buildings within renovation.Measures for saving of process heat and use of electricity.
Household Thermal insulation of old buildings within renovation.Improved standard of space heat demand for new houses.More efficient use of electricity in new appliances.
Transport Vehicles with a clear reduction of fuel consumption. Share of public transport at the upper limit.
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Primary Energy in the Scenario "Innovation+Saving"
13887
1295212257
14539
-16%
-12%
-7%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Nuclear
Renewables
Gas
Oil
Lignite
Hard coal
2000 203020202010
Ref. I+S
PJ
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
CO2-Emissions in the Scenario "Innovation+Saving"
801
692
796
654
864
- 66- 8,1%(- 25%) - 109
- 13,6%(- 31%)
- 142- 17,9%
(- 35% compared to 1990)
755822
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Mio. t
Transport
Household
Small Consumer
Industry
Conversion-50
-100
-150
-200
Em
iss
ion
sC
ha
ng
e
2000 203020202010
Basis Spar Diff.
ca. 85% KW ,HKW
x 4
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Final Energy in the Scenario "Innovation+Saving"
9547 9393 91769557
-18%-15%
- 8%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
PJ
Industry heat
District heat
Renewables
Electricity
Gas
Oil products
Coal products
2000 203020202010
Ref. I+S
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Reduction Scenario
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Primary energy for the CO2-Reduction scenario
14539
12452 1225711234
1295213887 13641
- 1024- 8,4%
- 500- 3,9%
- 246- 1,8%
-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
PJ
Hard coal Lignite
Oil Gas
Renewables Nuclear
- 500
- 1000
- 2500
- 2000
- 1500
* incl. Müll
x 4
500
1000
xxx
0
1500
DifferencePJ
2000 203020202010
Base CO2 Diff.
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Share of Sectors to Saving* of Final Energy in the Reduction Scenario
33% 32%
29%4%
5%
19%
62%
63%
34%
18%
700- 7,6%
288- 3,1%
177- 1,9%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ
* Compared to reference scenario
Industry: Measures of energy saving for production and utilization of process heat and electricity. - 9,3%
Small consumer: Savings of Process heat and warm water, insulation of buildings, heat pump(12%), (biomass) - 9,7%
Houshold: Thermal insulation of old buildings within renovation. (-9%),gas condensing boiler, solar panel, heat pump, (biogas), efficient use of electricity for new appliances - 9,3%
Transport: Use of trucks with lower fuel consumption (and biodiesel). - 4,1%
Share
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Electricity Production
537 536 531 524 517 526 517
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2000 2010 2020 2030
TWh
Industry
CHPS
Others
PV
Wind
Hydro
Nat.gas
Oil
Hard coal
Lignite
Nuclear
Base load
22%
39%
18%
2000 2010 2020 2030
Net installed capacity of power stations
116 115 115109
117
109
121
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2010 2020 2030
GW
Industry
CHPS
Others
PV
Wind
Hydro
Nat.gas
Oil
Hard coal
Lignite
Nuclear
Base load
16,414%
39,132%
35,029%
Reduction Scenario
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Costs of CO2-Reduction in the Reduction Scenario
- 4.0
- 1.8
- 0.7
0.8*109/a
2.8*109/a
6.2*109/a
+ 10.2
+ 4.6
+ 1.5
19.2 €/t
25.8 €/t
32.5 €/t
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2010 2020 2030
Ad
dit
ion
al c
os
ts 1
09 Eu
ro p
er
ye
ar
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Av
era
ge
co
sts
Eu
ro /
To
nn
e C
O2
Transport
Household
Small consumer
Industry
Conversion
Saving of primaryenergy
Cumulated additional costs: 98*109 Euro
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Constraints on CO2-Emissions
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mio
. t
Reference-scenario
1990 - 2002 *
*Temperaturbereinigte Werte
-15%-19%
- 21%- 21%
- 23%
- 31%
0
- 40%
- 31%
- 35%
- 45%
- 50%
None (- 25%)
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
CO2-Reduction* in the Year 2030
103
139
190
240
291
9491%
12086%
13672%
15866%
17058%
19
54
82
121
9
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
- 31% - 35% - 40% - 45% - 50%
Reduction compared to 1990
Mio
. t
Electricity+CHP Rest of conversion
Indusry HouseholdSmall consumer Transport
43%
12%
34%
11%
2/3
* compared to reference scenario
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Others
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
-29.1Mt
-24.7Mt
-15.1Mt
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Eq
uiv
alen
t o
f P
rim
ary
En
erg
y (P
J)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
CO
2 in
mill
ion
to
n
Bioethanol traffic
Rapeseed oil CHP
Rapeseed oil traffic
Biomass smallconsumerBiomass residence
Biomass industry
Biomass CHP
Biogas CHP
Biogas small consumer
Wind power
CO2-reduction
CO2-Reduction
Additional Use of Renewable Energy and corresponding CO2 Reduction
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Saving of Space Heating for different Measures of Insulation in old Buildings
0102030405060708090
100110
Fe1 Fe2
Fe1Da1
Fe2Da1
Fe2Da2
Fe1Da1
Aw1
Fe1Da1
Aw1Kd1
Fe2Da2
Aw1
Fe3Da2
Aw1
Fe2Da2
Aw2
Fe3Da2
Aw2
Fe2Da2
Aw2Kd1
Fe2Da2
Aw2Kd2
Fe3Da2
Aw2Kd1
Fe3Da2
Aw2Kd2
Sav
ing
kW
h/m
2
* Angaben des Lehrstuhls für Energiewirtschaft und Kraftwerkstechnik, Technische Universität München
SFH 1995: 156 kWh/m2MFH 1995: 125 kWh/m2
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Distribution of Measures for Insulation of Buildings (Old Houses 2020, Reduction Scenario)
38
12
1
10
31
2 24
2 20 0 0 0 1
31 00 0 0 0
11 12
4 3 31
2 2 35
0 0
14
29
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Standa
rd Fe2
Fe1Da1
Fe2Da1
Fe2Da2
Fe1Da1
Aw1
Fe1Da1
Aw1K
d1
Fe2DA2A
w1
Fe3Da2
Aw1
Fe2Da2
Aw2
Fe3Da2
Aw2
Fe2Da2
Aw2K
d1
Fe2Da2
Aw2K
d2
Fe3Da2
Aw2K
d1
Fe3Da2
Aw2K
d2
Fe2 a
.R.Z
.
Fe1Da1
a.R
.Z.
Fe2Da1
a.R
.Z.
Fe2Da2
a.R
.Z.
Sh
are
of
tota
l liv
ing
sp
ac
e in
%
SFH MFH
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Fuzzy linear optimization means that one assumes fuzzy aspiration levels for each of the goals, the problem is then f.ex. transformed into a crisp "satisfaction model" by using membership functions for the constraints (equal to some "satisfaction" functions). The idea is then to maximize "total satisfaction", i.e. maximizing a minimum operator for all the membership functions. This normally give as a solution beeing some kind of a compromise, i.e total satisfaction < 1.
FUZZY LINEAR OPTIMIZATION
Conventional: Fuzzy:Min Z = Cx Cx<~zAx<=b Ax<~b (included some crisp <=)x>=0 x>=0
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Membership-function fi (Satisfaction): (assuming linear)
1-((Bx)i-bi)/di
0 di (Bx)i
bi bi+di
1
Max Min fi((Bx)i) where Min-Operator = Intersection Set of fi
Max Min (1+bi’ – (B’x)i) ; bi’=bi/di Bi’=Bi/di
Assuming variable ß=common satisfaction:(Bx)i<=bi+(1-ß)di 0<ß<1
Crisp LP-Problem:Max ßßdi+(Bx)i<=bi+di
(Ex)j<=gj, i.e. dj=0
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
EXAMPLE: Refinery Least costs solution:
Costs = 1201Emissions = 830Gasoline = 40Emissions too high (prefer -100)Gasoline too low (prefer +2)Accept higher costs (max +100)
Fuzzy – solution as a compromise:
Costs = +38Emissions = -63Gasoline = +1.3(ß = 0.63)
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
Elektrizität
Wärme
Raffinerie
Gas
Kohleveredlung
Verkehr
Haushalte
Industrie
Kleinverbrauch
Personen-,Tonnenkilometer
Raumwärme
Prozesswärme
Kraft und Licht
Inland
Import
Export
Primär Umwandlung Verbrauchssektoren Nachfrage
Industriegüter
Struktur des gesamtenergiewirtschaftlichen ModellsKFA-STE
Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele
KFA-STE
DomesticMining
Productionof Energy
Import
Industry
Small-ScaleConsumers
Households
Transport
Primary Energy Final Energy Demand
NetProduction
(DM)
Process Heat
Space Heat
Per Capita
Light
Communication
Power
PassengerTransport
(km)
Transportof Goods
(km)
CoalConversion
Refinery
Power Plantsand Electricity
Distribution
CHP andDistrict HeatDistribution
GasDistribution
Har
d C
oal
Lig
nit
e C
oal
Oil
Nat
ura
l Gas
Nu
clea
rR
enew
able
s
Har
d C
oal
Pro
du
cts
Lig
nit
e C
oal
Pro
d.
Fu
el O
ilD
iese
l Oil
Pet
rol
Pet
rol G
asM
eth
ano
l/Eth
ano
lD
isct
rict
Hea
tE
lect
rici
ty
€