the impact of implementation of individual visit scheme on the price of street level retail shops
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The Impact of Implementation of Individual Visit Scheme on the Price of Street Level Retail Shops. PhD Candidate: Liu Yan, Ivy Supervisor: Prof. K. W. Chau. 3rd , July, 2013. Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Impact of Implementation of Individual Visit Scheme on the Price of Street Level Retail
Shops
PhD Candidate: Liu Yan, Ivy Supervisor: Prof. K. W. Chau
3rd , July, 2013
Definition of Keywords
• Individual Visit Scheme (IVS)– began on July 28, 2003, allowed travelers from
Mainland China to visit HK and Macau on an individual basis
• Street Level Retail Shops– ground floor shops within tenant-mixed buildings with
a street-faced frontage and are commonly found in the older parts of the urban area
2
Figure 1 Street level retail shops
1 Background
2 Research Questions & Objectives
3 Literature Review & Hypotheses
4 Research Design
5 Data and Sources
Outline
6 Expected Outcome
• Tourism Industry– in 2009, it contributed to 3.3% of GDP, employed over
193,200 persons (5.5% employment)
– visitor arrivals in 2011 reached 41.9 million
• Mainland China Visitors– In 2011, largest source market with 28.1 million - 67%
– increases 19.43% annually from 1991 to 2011
– spend 73% expenditures on shopping on average
1 Background
5
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20110
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
Number of touristsNumber of Mainland touristsNumber of IVS
Figure 2 Visitor Arrivals by Country/Territory of Residence
(1993-2011)
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20010
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
YearReceipts from Visitors ($million)-Main-land ChinaReceipts from all Visitors ($million)
Figure 3 Receipts from Visitors(1993-2001)
Figure 4 Consumption Expenditure of all Visitors
($million) (1998-2011)
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
YearConsumption Expenditure of Visitors ($million)-Mainland ChinaConsumption Expenditure of all Visi-tiors ($million)
• Retail Industry in HK– total retail sales: $325 billion (2010)
– HK$64 billion, or 20%, was directly attributed to shopping spending of Mainland Chinese tourists
• Retail Property– over 97% is in the private sector
– a large amount of very small retail business types and a rather small scale of huge retailers
– shopping malls, street-level retail shops, open air bazaars, markets and cooked food stalls
10
• 2.1 Research Question– Shoppers can be classified into local-shoppers and
tourist-shoppers
– This study examines whether there is any relationship between changes on shopper mix and the implicit prices of street level retail shops attributes
– Makes use of the implementation of IVS in Hong Kong, which changed the shopper mix to undertake empirical tests
2 Research Questions & Objectives
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• 2.2 Research Objectives– Examine the differences in shopping behaviors between
local & tourist shoppers
– Identify factors that affect street level retail shops price in urban areas
– Identify attributes of street level retail shops which are likely to be affected by changes in local & tourist shopper mix
– Formulate and test hypotheses on the impact of IVS on the implicit prices of street level retail shops attributes
12
• 3.1 Tourism Shopping– local-shoppers and tourist-shoppers have different
shopping behaviors (Christiansen & Snepenger, 2002)
– Heung and Qu (1998), tourism shopping: expenditure on goods purchased in HK, by international visitors, either for consumption in HK or for export but not including expenditure on food, drink or grocery items
– Law and Au (2000): visitors’ total expenditures on non-F&B items could have been consumed locally, or could have been taken abroad
3 Literature Review
13
• 3.2 Retail Property• Macro view– Eppli and Benjamin (1994) : central place theory, retail
agglomeration economics, positive effects of large anchor-tenants and valuation of shopping centers
– Others: Sirmans and Guidry (1993), Benjamin, Boyle, and Sirmans (1990), O'Roarty, McGreal, and Adair (1997), etc
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• Micro view– Craig, Ghosh, and McLafferty (1984): area or market,
potential shops, optimal, physical features
– Sirmans and Guidry (1993) summarized four kinds of main factors: market condition, customer drawing power, building design and location
– Others: Yuo, Crosby, Lizieri, and McCann (2003), Gatzlaff, Sirmans, and Diskin (2001), etc. Teller (2008)
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• Hong Kong case– Richard S. Tay, Clement K. Lau, and Marie S. Leung
(1999)
– Chau, Pretorius, and Yu (2000) studied street level retail shops in Mong Kok
– Ning (2011) conducted a further research
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• 3.3 Property Price Determinants– Many studies have been done to study various factors that
affect property prices or rentals, say Archer, Gatzlaff, and Ling (1996), Gibbons and Machin (2008), Tsun (2010), etc
• Building Age – Hottest variables: Knight and Sirmans (1996), Lee, Chung,
and Kim (2005), Rehm, Filippova, and Stone (2006), etc
– Depreciation & negative effect v.s. positive influence
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• Neighborhood Attributes– Rodriguez and Sirmans (1994), Wolverton (1997), Yiu,
Chau, and Wong (2008), Kestens, Theriault, and Rosiers (2004), Hui, Chau, Pun, and Law (2007) etc
– Parks, hospitals, banks or supermarkets, sea view, mountain view
– For retail properties, the most important issue is the power of generating potential customers (R.S. Tay, C.K. Lau, & M.S. Leung, 1999)
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• Transportation – bus, railway, MTR availability, distance to certain
stations or CBD
– positive effect: Chalermpong (2007), Shin, Washington, and Choi (2007), Tse (2002), Choy, Mak, and Ho (2007)
– negative effect: Poon (1978) and Forrest, Glen, and Ward (1996), Nelson(2008), Chau and Ng (1998)
– little has been done with reference to retail property: Damm, Lerman, Lerner-Lam, and Young (1980)
19
• 3.4 Research Gap
– Previous research objectives focused mainly on shopping malls or shopping centers, nearly no studies on street-level retail shops
– There is no empirical study on the relationship of shopper mix and implicit prices of retail shops attributes
20
• 3.5 Hypotheses– H1: Implementation of the Individual Visit Scheme will
increase the positive impact of building age on prices of street level retail shops, other things being equal
Rationale– Older street level shops occupy premier locations first
as the urban area develops
– AGE is a proxy for how well-known these locations are
21
– H2: Implementation of the Individual Visit Scheme will increase the positive impact of upper level retail use on the prices of street-level retail shops, other things being equal
Rationale– Upper-level properties always carried out for other use;
– Different property type has different pedestrian drawing powers
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– H3: Implementation of the Individual Visit Scheme will increase the positive impact of proximity of the shops to tourist accommodation facilities, other things being equal
Rationale– Proximity to accommodation facilities is of value to
tourists but not local shoppers.
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– H4: Implementation of the Individual Visit Scheme will increase positive impact of proximity of the shops to MTR stations, other things being equal.
Rationale– Proximity to MTR is a measure of accessibility of
shops
– Accessibility of shops is more important to tourist than local shopper
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• Hedonic Price Model
ln(RP) =a0+a1AGE+a2AGE2+a3SIZE+a4SIZE2+a5FRON
+a6FRON2+a7COR+a8MTR+a9MTR2+a10AC
+a11AC2+a12IVS+a13IVS*AGE+a14IVS*FRON
+a15IVS*AC+a16IVS*MTR+ε– ln(RP) -natural log of the real price per saleable floor area– ai - coefficients – ε - error term
4 Research Design
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Variables DescriptionVariables Description Unit
RP Real price per saleable area $/M2
AGE Age of the shop Year
SIZE Saleable area of the shop M2
FRON Length of the frontage facing the street (equal zero if the shop is located inside a building
Meter
COR Shops located at the junction of 2 roads Dummy
MTR The distance to the nearest MTR station Meter
AC Numbers of hotels or guesthouse within 250m radius Number
IVS equals 1 after implementation of the Individual visit scheme Dummy
IVS*AGE Interaction between IVS and AGE --
IVS*FRON Interaction between IVS and FORN --
IVS*AC Interaction between IVS and AC --
IVS*MTR Interaction between IVS and MTR --
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5 Data and Sources
Variables Description Data sources
RPDeflated transaction price per saleable area
EPRC
INDEX Retail price index Rating and Valuation Department
MTR Distance to the nearest MTR stationSurvey and Mapping Office/ Google map
ACNumbers of hotels or guesthouse within 250m radius
Licensing Authority and Google map
COR Located in corner Site visit
AGE Building age EPRC
SIZE Shop size EPRC
FRON Length of frontage Site Measurement
IVS Individual visit scheme Hong Kong Tourism Board
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6 Expected OutcomeVariables Expected sign Remark
AGE +ve Control
AGE2 ? Control
SIZE +ve Control
SIZE2 ? Control
FRON +ve Control
FRON2 ? Control
COR +ve Control
MTR -ve Control
MTR2 ? Control
AC Insignificant Control
AC2 Insignificant Control
IVS +ve Control
IVS*AGE +ve H1
IVS*FRON +ve H2
IVS*AC +ve H3
IVS*MTR -ve H4
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THANK YOU