the iron ore market mining on top helsinki - anton löf, raw materials group
DESCRIPTION
The iron ore market Mining on top Helsinki Anton Löf, Raw Materials Group Mining On Top: Helsinki 2013 16-17 September 2013 | HelsinkiTRANSCRIPT
Anton Löf (Magnus Ericsson)
Senior Iron Ore Analyst, Raw Materials Group
The iron ore market
Mining on top Helsinki
About IntierraRMG
• 30 years leadership in data, mapping, analysis
and reporting.
• Lease ownership, company evaluations, M&A,
due diligence, production statistics and project pipeline.
• Market and project reports, material flows analysis
and mineral economics policy
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the information contained herein and assume no responsibility for the use of the information.
Raw Materials Group
• Part of the IntierraRMG group since 2012
• 30 years industry leadership in data, mapping,
analysis and reporting.
• IntierraLive and Raw Materials Data.
• Strategy development
– Mining companies, equipment & service
• Mineral policy, investment promotion
– Governments, International organisations
• Pre-feasibility/Feasibility studies
– Financial institutions, companies
• UNCTAD Iron Ore Trust Fund.
• Steel production
• Iron ore production
• Iron ore trade
• Iron ore prices
• Corporate concentration
• Capacity
• Outlook
• Summary
Outline
UNCTAD Iron Ore Trust Fund
• 1987, since 2002 with Raw Materials Group of Sweden.
• Two annual publications
– Iron Ore Market Review in May
– Iron Ore Statistics in September • Half year update in November
• Financed by sales and contributions from Australia, Brazil, Canada, Sweden and US.
• Contact [email protected] for information.
• Iron ore market available in Chinese
Steel production
Crude steel production
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
1 600 000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Rest of the world
China
Iron ore supply
Iron ore mines 2012
Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
Global iron ore production
Source: UNCTAD, Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Australia
China
India
Brazil
Russian Federation
Other
Chinese production
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
1
99
0
19
91
19
92
19
93
1
99
4
19
95
1
99
6
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
China iron ore production
China ore production (unconverted)
RMG top companies 2012
Rank
2012
Controlling entity Country Controlled Share
of Total
production (Mt)
World prod % Rank 2011
1 Vale (Cia Vale do Rio Doce) Brazil 320 17.2 1
2 Rio Tinto UK 197 10.7 2
3 BHP Billiton Australia 187 10.0 3
4 Fortescue Metal Group Australia 61 3.3 6
5 State of India 1) India 59 3.2 5
6 ArcelorMittal Luxemburg 58 3.1 4
7 Anglo American UK 47 2.5 7
8 Cliffs Natural Resources USA 46 2.5 8
9 Metalloinvest Russia 40 2.1 9
10 System Capital Management Ukraine 31 1.7 10
Total, 10 largest 1046 56.3
Total, World 1863 100.0
Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
Iron ore trade
Global iron ore exports
Source: UNCTAD, Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Australia
India
South Africa
Brazil
Canada
CIS
Other
Global iron ore imports
Source: UNCTAD, Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Other
EU27
Japan
Korea, Republic of
China, Taiwan Province of
China
Chinese iron ore imports
Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
Iron ore prices
Iron ore prices, TSI 62 % Fe
0
50
100
150
200
250
05
/01
/20
09
16
/06
/20
09
30
/07
/20
09
15
/09
/20
09
29
/10
/20
09
14
/12
/20
09
01
/02
/20
10
17
/03
/20
10
05
/05
/20
10
21
/06
/20
10
04
/08
/20
10
20
/09
/20
10
03
/11
/20
10
17
/12
/20
10
04
/02
/20
11
22
/03
/20
11
11
/05
/20
11
27
/06
/20
11
10
/08
/20
11
26
/09
/20
11
09
/11
/20
11
23
/12
/20
11
10
/02
/20
12
27
/03
/20
12
15
/05
/20
12
02
/07
/20
12
15
/08
/20
12
01
/10
/20
12
14
/11
/20
12
02
/01
/20
13
26
/02
/20
13
16
/04
/20
13
06
/06
/20
13
23
/07
/20
13
USD
TSI 62 % Fe CFR Tianjin Port US$/t
Iron ore fines 62 % Fe, USD/t
Average yearly price
Corporate concentration
Production - Increased geographical
concentration
18%
22%
11% 8% 9%
6%
6%
20%
2000
Australia
Brazil
China
India
Russian Federation
Ukraine
United States
Others
28%
20% 15%
8%
6%
4%
3% 16%
2012
Australia
Brazil
China
India
Russian Federation
Ukraine
South Africa
Others
• In 2000 the 3 largest producing countries had 51% of the market. In 2012 it had increased to 63% • In 2000 the 5 largest producing countries had 68% of the market. In 2012 it had increased to 77%
Export - Increased geographical concentration
• In 2000 the 3 largest exporting countries had 71% of the market. In 2012 it had increased to 76% • In 2000 the 5 largest exporting countries had 80% of the market. In 2012 it had increased to 82%
33%
32%
7%
5%
4%
4% 3% 12%
2000
Australia
Brazil
India
Canada
South Africa
Ukraine
Sweden
Others
42%
29%
5%
3%
3%
2%
2%
14%
2012
Australia
Brazil
South Africa
Ukraine
Canada
Russian Federation
Sweden
Others
Corporate control over time
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012
% 1
3
10
Source: Raw Materials Data
Capacity
Capacity additions 2013-2015
• Total project pipeline contains 771 Mt of iron ore capacity to come on stream within the next 3 years.
• The project pipeline are based on companies statements on project completion
• Not all projects will be finalized in time but delays rarely exeds 3 years.
• It can be assumed with some degree of confidence that around 500 Mt with a low of 390 and a high of 580 Mt of new capacity will come on stream in the period to and including 2015.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010 2011 2012
Mt
Capacity to come online within the next 3 years
Possible
Probable
Certain
Outlook
Iron ore projects
Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
Project pipeline by region
32%
29%
13%
11%
11% 4%
Oceania
Latin America
Africa
Europe
Asia
North America
Chinese crude steel production
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
kt
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Global iron ore cash cost
Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
Conclusions
Summary
Molybdenum drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Summary
We estimate that the world iron ore market will be characterized by tight conditions for at least a few years to come, although prices will decline, as new production comes on stream, they will remain on a high level. The main factors influencing the market include:
• Chinese steel demand, While demand drivers remain in place, will grow considerably slower than during the past decade, while demand in the rest of the world will pick up.
• World steel demand and production will increase at rates that are high in a historical perspective but nevertheless lower than during the previous decade.
• Increasing supply constraints.
• Chinese iron ore production will remain significantly lower than domestic demand.
Anton Löf PO Box 3127 SE-169 03 Solna, Sweden [email protected] Tel: +46-8-744 00 65 Fax: +46-8-744 0066
www.rmg.se www.intierrarmg.se
Thank you !
NIckel drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Metals first isolated in
Sweden/Finland
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