the long-term energy supply and demand outlook in taiwan energy commission ministry of economic...
TRANSCRIPT
THE LONG-TERM ENERGY SUPPLY
AND DEMAND OUTLOOK IN TAIWAN
ENERGY COMMISSIONMINISTRY OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS
AUGUST 2001
MOEA
-15-
Contents
I. Energy Demand and Supply in Taiwan
II. Current Energy Policy
III. Key Issues and Challenges
IV. Closing Remarks
-16-
I. Energy Demand and Supply I. Energy Demand and Supply
in Taiwanin Taiwan
-17-
1. Structure of Energy Supply106.3
Million KLOE
Coal
Petroleum
Natural Gas
NuclearHydro
Percentage of Imported Energy in 2000 : 97%
Average Annual Growth Rate from 1980 to 2000 : 5.8%
1980 2000 yearDependence on imports:
86.4% 97.1%
2 7
51
31
9%
58.6
Million KLOE
34.3Million KLOE
93.4%
1990
6 %267115
14 %44
55
23
-18-
2. Structure of Energy Consumption - by energy forms90.9
52
29.6
Million KLOE
Million KLOE
Million KLOE
1980 2000 year1990
Coal
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Electricity
Total yearly electricity consumption increases
34 % 6
52 8
40 %
3
44
13
49
3
37
11
%
-19-
3. Structure of Energy Consumption - by sectors
90.9
52
29.6
Million KLOE
Million KLOE
Million KLOE
1980 2000 year1990
Industrial
Transportation
Agricultural
Residential
Commercial
OthersNon-energy Use
Energy consumption by the industrial, residential, and transportation sectors has increased substantially since 1980.
2%632
10 %12
65
2% 6 3 411 6
58
3% 6 2 6
12
16
55
-20-
4. Installed Capacity of Power Stations
1990 - 2000 Average Annual Growth RateTotal Installed Capacity: 7.3%Peak Load: 5.9%
Reserve Margin: 8.2 % 7.4 % 12.6 %1980 1990 2000
IPP
Cogeneration
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas-Fired
Oil-Fired
Coal-Fired
17,809MW
9,056MW
34,773MW
14%155911
5 % 291442721
6 %
15
15
13
13
15
23
-21-
5. Forecast of Energy Supply
-5
15
35
55
75
95
115
135
155
175
2000 2010 2020
Coal Petroleum Natural Gas Hydro Power Nuclear Power New Energy
Million KLOE
year
138.6
106.2
167.1
9.62.27.1
54.6
32.7
2.3
13.02.819.6
70.3
30.6
4.3
19.62.9
24.0
78.7
37.6
-22-
6. Forecast of Energy Demand
10 9.4 8.8
33.9 45.257.4
2.85.4
8.144.2
53.5
73.72.1
2.7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2010 2020
Coal Petroleum Natural Gas Electricity New Energy
Million KLOE
90.9
115.9150.7
year
-23-
II. Current Energy PolicyII. Current Energy Policy
Stabilizing Energy Supply
Increasing Energy
Efficiency
Deregulating Energy
Enterprises
EnhancingEnergy Safety and
EnvironmentalProtection
ReinforcingEnergy Researchand Development
Promoting Energy Education and
Dissemination
-24-
1.Intensification of integrated energy planning.
2.Promotion of diversification of primary energy.
3.Construction of energy infrastructure.
4.Maintenance of proper energy security stockpile.
5.Promotion of exploration in energy resources.
Increasing Energy
Efficiency
EnhancingEnergy Safety and
EnvironmentalProtection
Stabilizing Energy Supply
ReinforcingEnergy Researchand Development
Promoting Energy Education and
Dissemination
Policyguidelines
Policy contents
Deregulating Energy
Enterprises
Free, Orderly, Efficient, and Clean Energy Demand and Supply System
Master goal
1.Promotion of energy education in schools, industry and to the public.
2.Training professional personnel.
1.Enhancement of energy safety.
2.Active introduction of clean energy.
3.Promotion of high-efficiency and low pollution equipment and technologies.
4.Formulation of appropriate strategies to cope with the development of international environ-mental protection.
1.Promotion of R&D in energy conservation technologies.
2.Promoting the application of new and renewable energies.
3.Strengthening international cooperation.
1.Revision of related laws and regulations.
2.Establishment of a fair and competitive environment.
3.Promotion of the liberalization and privatization of energy enterprises.
1.Enhancement of energy productivity.
2.Stress on energy conservation.
3.Laissez faire determination of market mechanism.
4.Reasonable reflection of social cost in energy prices.
Change in Energy Situation Trend in Deregulating Energy Enterprises Pressure in Environmental Protection
Energy Policy
Back-ground
-25-
III. Key Issues and ChallengesIII. Key Issues and Challenges
-26-
1. Major Conclusions of National Energy Conference
To prioritize the implementation of energy conservation and promotion of energy efficiency, as "no regret strategy", with target of 28% energy saving by year 2020.
To promote the use of LNG, from annual consumption of 3.9 million tons in 1998 to 13 million tons in 2010. The price difference between natural gas and coal will be reduced.
To promote the use of co-generation, renewable energy, hydropower, and also to increase the weight of clean energy in energy portfolio.
-27-
Set the structure of the primary energy supply for the year 2020 at
Coal 27-30%
Petroleum 37-40%
National Gas 14-16%
Hydro 1-3%
Nuclear 13-15%
New Energy 1-3%.
-28-
Set the structure of the installed capacity for the year 2020 at
Coal-fired 35-37%
Oil-fired 4-5%
Gas-fired 27-29%
Hydro 9-11%
Nuclear 19-20%
New Energy 1-3%.
-29-
1. Deregulating Energy Enterprises: Within three months after the legislature approves
the Petroleum Administration Law, all varieties of oil products shall be allowed to import.
The revised draft of the Electricity Law will widely open the operating pattern of power generation. When the legislature approves the draft, the monopoly of Taiwan Power Company will be eliminated.
2. Key Issues and Challenges
-30-
2. Augmenting Research & Development on Renewable Energy: Implementing the Measures for Promoting Solar W
ater-Heating Systems (15-20% subsidized)
Implementing the Measures for Promoting Solar Photovoltaic Systems (up to 50% subsidized)
Implementing the Measures for Promoting Wind-Power Generators (up to 50% subsidized)
Formulating the law and the program for developing renewable energy respectively
-31-
3. Strengthening Energy Efficiency & Energy Conservation: Establishing an energy efficiency index and
auditing systemImplementing an auditing system for energy
usersRaising the energy efficiency standards of
equipment and revise fuel economy standards for vehicles
4. Establishing a Nuclear-Free Taiwan:Formulating a statute for the early decommission
of the existing three nuclear power plants
-32-
5.Promoting Privatization of Electricity Sector :
On September 3,1994, the MOEA published the
"Guidelines for the Opening of the
Independent Power Generation Industry". The MOEA then called for IPP projects in
January 1995, August 1995, and January 1999, respectively. So far, eight IPP projects with a total capacity of 7,220 MW have begun operation or are under construction.
-33-
The energy policy in Taiwan aims at sustainable development through the integration of the 3E (economic development, environmental protection, and energy security).
Our priorities are to promote energy conservation, energy efficiency, and open market, thereby strengthening our international competitiveness.
We welcome international energy cooperation to achieve these common goals.
IV. Closing RemarksIV. Closing Remarks
-34-
THANK YOU
ENERGY
-35-
-36-