The Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE) Clare BakerDavid SimpsonHelen Wood

Agenda for the morning

An overview of LSYPE (45 minutes to 1 hour) Comfort Break (10 minutes) An introduction to iLSYPE (45 minutes to 1 hour) Comfort Break (10 minutes) A chance to use iLSYPE (30 minutes) End (1pm at the latest)

Presentation OverviewWhat is LSYPE? Who takes part Survey content Data collection Linked data

Benefits

Uses of LSYPE

Data Enhancement and Access to LSYPE data

Challenges and the future of LSYPE

What is LSYPE?

A unique and invaluable dataset for Government analysis

and policy making

Initially funded by HM Treasury and intended as a cross-government project – currently managed by DCSF

Research aims –

factors affecting educational progress

transitions following compulsory education,

effects of background and behaviours,

attitudes and experiences

Not just restricted to education

Our unique selling point!

What is LSYPE? – Why Longitudinal? A longitudinal design provides more insight into causal

processes than cross-sectional studies. LSYPE can investigate:

– whether aspirations had been lower from a young age for certain groups and track these over time

– factors associated with changing aspirations such as changed family circumstances, parental attitudes, exam results etc.

– Investigate the degree to which intentions are converted into applications and acceptances for different groups.

What is LSYPE?

Longitudinal in design - the same young people interviewed every year from age 13/14 (2004)

Each annual LSYPE survey is referred to as a ‘Wave’. So far:

W1 Age 13/14 Year 9 2004 Data released to the public

W2 Age 14/15 Year 10 2005

W3 Age 15/16 Year 11 2006

W4 Age 16/17 Year 12 2007

W5 Age 17/18 Year 13 2008 Available on request (publication 2010)

W6 Age 18/19 Year 14 2009 Fieldwork nearly completed

Who takes part in LSYPE?Wave 1 (13/14) Young people and

both parents≈ 15,500 responding households (74%)

Wave 2 (14/15) Young people and both parents

≈ 13,500 responding households (86%)

Wave 3 (15/16) Young people and both parents

≈ 12,500 responding households (92%)

Wave 4 (16/17) Young people and one parent

≈ 11,500 responding households (92%)

Wave 5 (17/18) Young people only ≈ 10,500 responses in Wave 5 (89%)

Sampling Maintained Schools Independent Schools/PRUs

School sampling(33,000pupils)

Drawn from School Level Annual School Census (SLASC).

Oversampled deprived areas (1.5 times)Selection Probability based on Y9 pupils

Drawn from Pupil Level Annual School Census (PLASC).

Stratified by boarding status, attainment, gender.

Pupil sampling(21,000 pupils)

Drawn from PLASC. Contact details provided by co-operating schools.

Selection Probability based on Y9 pupils from Ethnic Minorities and school selection probibility

Pupils sampled from school rolls with specialist software

33/34 pupils selected at each school, or all pupils if school <34 but >5 Y9 pupils.

AchievedSample(15,500pupils)

21,000 details issued to field, of which 15,500 yielded responding households

Each year, sample issued from respondents to previous wave.

At Wave 4 an ethnic minority "Boost" sample to increase numbers.

How do we collect LSYPE data?

Waves 1 – 4: All interviews took place face-to-face.

Waves 5 and 6 – A range of modes was introduced:

on-line survey – first chance (around half) telephone survey – second chance (around one third) face to face survey – last chance (the remainder)

Participation is voluntary – respondents can drop out of the study at any time.

As a thank-you for taking part, respondents receive a High Street Voucher.

Survey Content“Main” Parent “Second”

ParentYoung Person

Employment Histories – including incomeRelationship histories (household composition)Demographics (ethnicity, gender, religion, disability etc)

Educational experiences/attainment- including bullying and truancyAspirationsOut of school activities- both positive & riskyHealth, disability & SENCaring responsibilitiesRelationship with parentsAttitudes & experiences re: local communityRelationships, sexuality etc.

Aspirations for the young personAttitudes to schooling and educationContact with servicesFamily Cohesion

Data LinkingLSYPE data can be linked to a number of other data sources to

supplement our data:

National Pupil Database (NPD) – exam results, school level information, geographic markers.

Individualised Learner Record (ILR) – Post-16 education, FE courses– Respondents were told we would link the data and asked if they

wanted to opt out. Few did.

Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS) – DWP benefit and employment programme data as well as employment records from HMRC.

– Respondents were asked if we could link their data

Data LinkingYouth Cohort Study (YCS) – A long running cohort study from ages 16-19,

Cohort 1 started in 1985. Cohort 13 in progress

From Wave 4 onwards (2007) LSYPE sample members were the same age as YCS Cohort 13. LSYPE and YCS were harmonised to create an extra large sample.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 LSYPEWave 4,

YCSSweep

1

LSYPEWave 5,

YCSSweep

2

Sa

mp

le S

ize

LSYPE YCS

Benefits Unique - the only study to have followed this cohort of young people

in this much detail.

Outcomes- cross sectional surveys show what is happening. Longitudinal surveys can show the consequences- useful for policy development.

Large sample size and low attrition - reduced potential for bias.

Highly engaged respondents- excellent rapport with researchers- allows us to ask more challenging questions.

Linked administrative data - of use to many government departments and policies.

Long shelf life – A strategic, multi-purpose survey. Doesn’t focus purely on specific policies.

How have LSYPE data been used?

By the Department:

Annual National Statistics publications. See: http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000795/index.shtml http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000850/index.shtml

Internal unpublished analyses:

RPA/NEETs:

Well qualified NEETs

Barriers to re-engagement

EMA eligibility/take-up

Jobs without training

Behavioural problems:

Contact with Educational Welfare, Social Services and the Police

Teenage Pregnancy Strategy Refreshment:

Characteristics of 17 year-old parents

REMOVE

How have LSYPE data been used?

LSYPE research framework agreement and research programme:- Fast and responsive tender process for research- Framework contractors build expertise with LSYPE

So Far:

Published

Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success

Examination Performance of Ethnic Minority pupils

In the pipeline…..

Risky Behaviours & social Activities

Disengagement from Education

Bullying

Community Cohesion

Youth Crime

Alcohol Use

IAG

REMOVE

How have LSYPE data been used?

By the Department: Annual National Statistics publications. See:

http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000795/index.shtml

http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000850/index.shtml Internal unpublished analyses Published analyses from a research framework

Published

Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success

Examination Performance of Ethnic Minority pupils

In the pipeline…..

Risky Behaviours & social Activities

Disengagement from Education

Bullying

Community Cohesion

Youth Crime

Alcohol Use

IAG

How have LSYPE data been used?

By other government departments: DEFRA/DCSF- rurality, attainment & post-16 participation

BIS-attitudes & intentions towards Higher Educationhttp://www.employment-studies.co.uk/pubs/report.php?id=bis_rp_003

Cabinet Office- attitudes & aspirations of those in deprived communities http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/social_exclusion_task_force/short_studies/aspirations.aspx

By academic researchers: Links between income & GCSEs Smoking, alcohol & personality traits Roles of attitudes & beliefs on child outcomes

Example FindingsNumber of years students reported being bullied (from Y9 to

Y11) and their subsequent destinations post-16

70

5

78

63

8

6960

9

6762

11

64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

% Full time Educationat 17

% NEET at 17 % Attained Level 2 by17

Per

cent

age

never once twice three times

Source: LSYPE Waves 1 - 5

Example FindingsPercentage of young people Not in Education Employment or

Training at 16, and at 17 by attainment in Year 11.

0

10

20

30

40

Non

e1

D-G

2 D

-G3

D-G

4 D

-G5

D-G

6 D

-G7

D-G

8 D

-G9

D-G

10 D

-G1

A*-

C2

A*-

C3

A*-

C4

A*-

C5

A*-

C6

A*-

C7

A*-

C8

A*-

C9

A*-

C10

A*-

C11

A*-

C12

A*-

C13

A*-

C14

+ A

*-C

GCSEs and equivalencies

Per

cent

age

NE

ET

NEET at 16

NEET at 17

Example FindingsAgreement with “Britain today is a place where people are

usually treated fairly no matter what background they come from”

5

5

6

15

15

14

10

13

13

42

48

53

47

49

57

61

60

62

40

38

31

32

30

25

25

21

21

12

9

9

6

6

4

4

6

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Black Caribbean

White

Mixed

Black African

Other

Bangladeshi

Indian

Other Asian

Pakistani

Percentage

Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree

Source: LSYPE Wave 5 and YCS 13 sweep 2

Example FindingsHow often do you speak to the following about what you

might do after Year 11?

1

1

1

2

12

13

3

4

6

15

35

41

10

12

19

34

34

33

18

22

32

32

13

9

68

61

43

17

7

4

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Connexions

Careers Advisory Service

Teachers Outside Lessons

Teachers as part of a lesson

Friends

Family, e.g. parents and siblings

A Lot Quite A lot A Little Not Very Often Not at all

Source: Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (2005 - young people aged 14)

Example FindingsEstimated Income based EMA eligibility by activity (aged 16)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ful

l-tim

eE

duca

tion

Job

with

Tra

inin

g

Job

With

out

Tra

inin

g

App

rent

ices

hip

etc. Oth

erE

d/T

rain

ing

NE

ET

All

% eligible for any EMA % eligible for £30 EMA

Example FindingsAge of Respondent’s mother by whether or not respondent has their own

child by the age of 17

27

35

22

7 1

35

26

8 48

*

25

*0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59

Age of mother when respondent was age 13/14

Per

cen

t

Do not have own children Have own children

Source LSYPE Waves 1,2 and 5Note: Weighted Sample is small for respondents w ith ow n children n=234.

Data EnhancementWaves 1-4 have been enhanced to aid users. Benefits

include:– Derived Variables– Edited, Labelled and re-ordered data– Detailed documentation– Weights to compensate for household non-response

A project currently underway to compensate for missing data:– To reduce biases due to non-response from individual

household members.– To reduce bias from missing data in Household income,

Socio-Economic Class and Parental Education.

How can I access LSYPE data?

LSYPE Datasets are available for users to download via the UK Data Archive. So far Waves 1- 4 have been deposited. See:

http://www.data-archive.ac.uk/

Wave 5 is available for users via an application to the Longitudinal Studies team and upon completion of a confidentiality agreement.

iLSYPE (more on this later)

Challenges

Making best use of longitudinal data

Resources

Lack of engagement across Government

Risks associated with changing to mixed-mode data collection

Managing expectations/demands

The future of LSYPE

Current cohort aged 18/19 and have just been interviewed for 6th time

About to start development for wave 7 interviews to take place 2010

Working closely with ESRC and OGDs for the possibility for ESRC to take over management of LSYPE after wave 7 (end 2010)

Development work for a second cohort (LSYPE2) - subject to Cross-Government funding

Any Questions?The Longitudinal Studies Team:

Clare Baker clare.baker@dcsf.gsi.gov.uk

Helen Wood helen.wood@dcsf.gsi.gov.uk

David Simpson david.simpson@dcsf.gsi.gov.uk

Michael Greer michael.greer@dcsf.gsi.gov.uk

Respondents’ website: www.nextstepsstudy.org.uk