the millennial strategy€¦ · web-survey of millennials in the battleground october 2016 . 1...
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The Millennial Strategy Web-survey of millennials in the battleground
October 2016
1
Methodology Battleground Web-Survey of 1,000 Millennial Likely Voters. This online survey took place October 1-4 in 11 presidential battleground states. Likely voters were determined based on stated intention of voting in 2016, and vote history in 2012 and 2014. Millennials were defined as being born in 1980 or later. Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 likely millennial voters unless otherwise noted. Millennials from the following presidential battleground states were included: AZ, CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation in the online panel rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. If this were a probability sample the margin of error would be +/- 3.10 percent, margin of error would be higher among regional and demographic subgroups. Regression analysis. A series of fractional logistic regressions were conducted to obtain the marginal effects of the explanatory variable (presidential vote, interest in election) on outcome variables (messages and statements), representing the change in outcome probabilities estimated for the explanatory variable, all else held equal. No causation is implied by these results.
54
29
14 3
HillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
Johnson Stein
4 – Way Vote
+25
60
34
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --
Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein?
+26
Clinton starting to see big margins with millennials
2
2 – Way Vote
64
34
54
29
14 3
46 51
44
35
17 4
Obama Romney Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Obama Romney Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote
for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein?
Clinton close to ’12 margin, running better with white millennials
3
+30 +25 +5
Millennials White Millennials
2016 2012 2016 2012
+9
+14 -5
39
9 2 4 8
0 6
32
Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable
21
4 1 2
10
1 7
52
Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable
Clinton
Trump
Not Clinton
Not Trump
4
Potential: 62%
Potential: 38%
Huge “Never Trump” contingent
49 58
42
64
31 27
37
23 20 14
21 13
Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary
Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein?
5
+5 +18
Men Women
Marriage Gap: 36
+31 +41
Unmarried Women
Gender Gap: 13
Married Women
Trump Johnson/Stein
Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein
Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein
Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein
Clinton
Unmarried women are driving the Clinton margin
42
64
33
53
37
23
45
31
21
13
22 16
Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary
Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein?
6
+12 +5
Married Women Unmarried
Women
+41 +22
White Unmarried
Women
White Married
Women
Trump Johnson/Stein
Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein
Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein
Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein
Clinton
Including white unmarried women
49
31
20
58
27
14
42
35
24
47
36
18
Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein
Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein
Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein
Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein
Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary
Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein?
7
+7 +18
Men Women
+31 +11
White Women White Men
Little difference between white men and women
50
30
20
44 41
16
41
34
25
42 36
22
Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein
Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein
Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein
Clinton Trump Johnson/Stein
Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary
Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein?
8
+7 +20
White College
Women
White Non-
College Women
+3 +6
White Non-
College Men
White College
Men
Clinton has big lead with white college & working class women
91
2 5 3
90
3 5 2
96
2
96
3
HillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
Johnson Stein HillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
Johnson Stein HillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
HillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
Initial Vote
+89
Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for
90% of Democratic millennials consolidated, potential for 95+
9
Re-Vote
+87 +94
Democratic Base Millennials
+93
Initial Vote Re-Vote
-2 -1
6
75
19 8
77
14 1 10
85
10
85
HillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
Johnson HillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
Johnson Stein HillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
Clinton Trump
Initial Vote
+69
Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for
Trump has only 75% of GOP millennials & they don’t consolidate
10
Re-Vote
+69 +75
Base Republican Millennials
+75
Initial Vote Re-Vote
-- --
22 20
56
35
49
8
Democrats &lean Dems
Independents Republicans &lean Reps
Obama Romney Johnson
Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --
Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein?
Johnson voters are mostly Republican
11
+34
Party ID 2012 Voters
Johnson Voters
+14
32
54
17
69 15
77
Very warm (75-100) Warm (51-74) Very cool (0-25) Cool (26-49)
12
Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a
VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.
Mean: 61.3
Net: +39
Gary Johnson
Net: -60
Mean: 20.9
Johnson voters are strongly anti-Trump
Donald Trump
Johnson Voters
13
WILL MILLENNIALS VOTE?
71
49 52 52
38
52 47 48
55 52 51
48 47 45
How interested are you in the November elections for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested. You can choose any number between 1 and 10.
The biggest question: will millennials turn out?
14
% 10 – Extremely Interested
16
10
10
14
50
33
35
42
14
34
31
22
50
67
65
58
Millennials want a revolution, including half of Clinton voters
15
Sanders Voters
Third Party Voters
Clinton voters
Millennials
Below are a few statements about the presidential election and issues facing the country. For each, please indicate how much
you agree or disagree with that statement.
NET
+34
+16
+30
--
Disagree Agree
We need a revolution in this country and we don't have time for incremental change.
18 11 12 10 21 22 16 13
42 49 45 47 39 38 46 49
50 57 61 61 56 54 59 63
Very warm (75-100) Warm (51-74) Very cool (0-25) Cool (26-49)
Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a
VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.
Mean: 29.0
Net: -51 Net: -32
Mean: 35.3
Big Banks CEOs of Large
Businesses
Deep anti-corporate mood among millennials
Wall Street
Mean: 30.2
Net: -49
Mean: 35.1
Net: -35 Net: -50
Mean: 29.5
Mean: 31.6
Net: -43
Clinton Voters
Millennials Clinton Voters
Millennials Clinton Voters
Millennials
16
Mean: 27.7
Net: -46
Trickledown
Economics
Mean: 33.2
Net: -32
Clinton Voters
Millennials
24
13
48
38
25
31
52
62
For each, please indicate how much you agree or disagree with that statement.
17
They do think the outcome of this election will matter
On the issues important to me, there is no real difference between Hillary
Clinton and Donald Trump.
+4
+24
No matter who is elected in November, it won't make much difference for people
like me.
Agree Disagree
32
52
18
47
Never for Clinton Strongly For Clinton to Stop Trump
-5
I could never vote for Hillary Clinton, even if that means Donald Trump
becomes president.
Which one of the following statements comes closer to your point of view, even if neither is exactly right.
About half of Third Party voters might shift to stop Trump
18
If it seems like Donald Trump might win the election, I would vote for Hillary
Clinton to stop him.
Could Never Vote for Clinton Would Vote Clinton to Stop Trump
Third Party Voters
74
5 11 9
Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
19
Sanders Primary Voters
Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat
Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein?
Quarter of Sanders millennials holding back
25 percent holding back
16
14
49
33
19
41
19
24
46
31
51
67
81
59
Concerns Clinton beholden to special interest holding them back
20
Third Party Voters
Winnables/In-reach
Sanders voters
Millennials
Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it.
NET
+34
+18
+62
+2
Disagree Agree
Hillary Clinton is too beholden to special interests to look out for people like me.
21
AN ECONOMIC MESSAGE TO
MOTIVATE MILLENNIALS
38 33
40
27 36
32 37
32
HillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
HillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
HillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
HillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
Initial Vote
+5
Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for
Third Party voters shift when they hear Clinton economic message
& contrasts, no movement when exposed to Johnson attacks
22
Re-Vote
REASONS TO VOTE FOR CLINTON DOUBTS ABOUT JOHNSON
+13 +4
+8 +1
Initial Vote Re-Vote
+5
Third Party Voters – in 2 way
TAKE ON TRICKLE DOWN: I think it's time that the wealthy and corporations paid their fair
share to support this country, because they have made all the gains in the economy. But the
plan Donald Trump has put forward it is Trumped-up trickle down. His plan would have the
biggest tax cuts for the top one percent that we've ever had, including a 4 billion dollar tax
break for his family. Slashing taxes on the wealthy hasn't worked. It got us into the mess we
were in, in 2008. Broad-based growth is what we need in America, not more advantages for
people at the very top.
30
33
35
35
28
31
83
77
82
Very convincing
Somewhat convincing
A little convincing
These are some statements from Hillary Clinton. How convincing is each statement?
Strong support for Clinton economic messages
CLINTON ECONOMIC MESSAGES
OPPORTUNITY: Inclusive growth is what we need in America. That includes building up
and investing in the middle class, but also addressing implicit bias in ourselves and our
police officers, taking aim at systemic racism in our criminal justice system, and ensuring the
color of your skin doesn't determine where you live, the quality of your education, or what
jobs you can get. We cannot just say law and order. Inclusive growth means all Americans
have the opportunity to go to college, start a business and pursue their dreams.
ECONOMY FOR EVERYONE: We have to build an economy that works for everyone, not
just those at the top. We have to invest in infrastructure, innovation and technology, and
renewable energy. We have to create a fairer economy by raising the national minimum
wage, guaranteeing equal pay for women, and ensuring workers share in the profits they
make, not just the executives at the top. We need to do more to support people struggling to
balance family and work, like ensuring paid family leave, and affordable child care and debt-
free college. And let's do it by having the wealthy pay their fair share and close the corporate
loopholes.
23
25
25
23
27
25
23
68
74
77
Take ontrickledown
Economy foreveryone
Opportunity
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
24
50
47
42
32
27
34
94
89
95
Economy foreveryone
Take ontrickledown
Opportunity
Trickledown economic message appeals to key millennial targets
37
35
28
33
32
36
82
82
92
Take ontrickledown
Economy foreveryone
Opportunity
Third Party Voters Winnable/In-reach Sanders Voters
These are some statements from Hillary Clinton. How convincing is each statement?
23
23
24
21
25
26
25
30
69
67
68
68
Very convincingSomewhat convincing
Either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be elected President in November. Here are some reasons why people say it is
important to NOT vote for Gary Johnson and instead vote for Hillary Clinton. How convincing is each statement?
Contrast on taxation leading reason to vote for Clinton
REASONS TO VOTE FOR CLINTON
TRICKLE-DOWN ECONOMICS: Clinton wants to end the reign of trickle-down economics and raise taxes on the wealthy who have seen all the new income gains so they pay their fair share and so we can invest in the middle class. Trump will enact the biggest tax cut for the one percent in history, including a 4 billion dollar tax break for his family, and make inequality even worse.
REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS & HEALTH: Clinton will fight back against attempts restrict access to quality, affordable reproductive health care and protect funding for Planned Parenthood. And she will defend access to affordable contraception, preventive care, and safe and legal abortion. Trump wants to criminalize abortion and said that a woman who seeks an abortion should be punished.
CLIMATE: Clinton understands that climate change is a real threat. She wants to make America the world's clean energy superpower, protect regulations on polluters, and uphold the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Donald Trump said global warming was a hoax made up by the Chinese. He wants to eliminate the EPA, give more tax breaks to oil companies, roll back regulations on coal plants, and gets his energy policies straight from oil company CEOs.
SECURITY: Clinton is prepared to be Commander in Chief. She has a deep knowledge of foreign affairs and national security and has the diplomatic skills and judgement to pursue our interests abroad and keep us safe at home. Trump lacks the temperament to be Commander in Chief. He wants to roll back our commitment to NATO allies, and praises authoritarian adversaries like Vladimir Putin.
25
14
14
13
21
19
23
59
59
65
Reproductive rights& health
Trickle-down
Climate change
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
26
15
15
9
24
22
29
69
69
68
Reproductiverights & health
Trickle-down
Climate change
Taxes, climate & abortion contrasts key for target groups
23
21
17
30
35
43
86
91
94
Trickle-down
Security &foreign affairs
Climate change
Third Party Voters Winnable/In-reach Sanders Voters
Either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be elected President in November. Here are some reasons why people say it is
important to NOT vote for Gary Johnson and instead vote for Hillary Clinton. How convincing is each statement?
REASONS TO VOTE FOR CLINTON
11
14
23
32
39
38
44
28
22
28
77
68
61
62
Most won’t vote for someone who wouldn’t tackle climate
27
Third Party Voters
Winnables/In-reach
Sanders voters
Millennials
Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it.
NET
+36
+24
+22
+54
Disagree Agree
Climate change is a severe threat and I won't vote for a candidate who won't take action to address it.
27 44
12 10
21
25
28 11
59
84
66
38
Millennials Sanders Voters Winnable/In-reach Third Party Voters
Much more likelySomewhat more likelyA little more likely
Below are some statements about why some people say they are voting for Hillary Clinton. How likely are you to vote for Hillary
Clinton after reading each statement?
28
Sanders is a key messenger for reaching millennials
Bernie Sanders says that Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party have the most progressive platform in history. He has said that they agree on ending Citizens United, to stopping the
new TPP trade deal, reining in Wall Street and making sure the wealthiest corporations and people start paying their fair share of taxes. And she worked with Senator Sanders on a bold
plan to make college affordable and debt-free.
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