the new generational future of los angeles...interpretations of the pitkin-myers 2013 los angeles...

Interpretations of the Pitkin-Myers 2013 Los Angeles Generational Projections

Dowell Myers

USC Sol Price School of Public Policy

The New Generational Future of Los Angeles

Research conducted with John Pitkin,

assisted by Michelle Decker, with

Hyojung Lee, Ying Mao, Susie Choi,

MiYoung Kim, and Sarah Mawhorter

Support of First 5 LA and the Haynes

Foundation is gratefully acknowledged

10 Major Findings

1. Continued Low Population Growth

2. Declining Number of Children

3. Annual Flow of New Immigrants is Plunging

4. Foreign Born Peaked or Declining

5. Long Settled Foreign Born

6. Rise of the Immigrant Second Generation

7. Slower Racial and Ethnic Change

8. A Soaring Senior Ratio

9. The Homegrown Revolution

10. Rising Index of Children’s Importance

Interpreting the Changes

Continued Slow Population Growth

Immigration Turnaround: Foreign Born Peaked or Declining

Generation Transformation: Declining Number of ChildrenA Soaring Senior Ratio

Homegrown Revolution:New Importance of Investing in Children

Dowell Myers, USCPrice

Demographic Assumptions

are Core to Public Beliefs about Taxation and

Broader California PolicyNarratives

Are the Old Trends Still an Accurate Guide for the Future?


Reversal of Outlooks

1990 Outlook 2010 and beyondGrowth booming out Slow steady increaseof control

Accelerated immigration Diminished immigration, even during good economy

High fertility, too many kids Reduced fertility, anda shortage of children

Growth coming from outside: Growth from native foreign lands and other states Californians: homegrown

Continuing Low Population Growth

Observed and Expected Population GrowthIn Los Angeles Each Decade from 1950-2050


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1950‐60 1960‐70 1970‐80 1980‐90 1990‐00 2000‐10 2010‐20 2020‐30 2030‐40 2040‐50

Millions

Census DOF‐07 DOF‐13 Pitkin‐Myers 13

Total Population of Los Angeles CountyHow Much Will Growth Resurge?

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Millions

Pitkin‐Myers12DOF‐07

DOF‐13

Census


What Year Does LA CountyReach 12 Million Population?

• Old Expectation = 2030

• New Outlook = after 2060

Source: California Department of Finance, 2007 and 2013


Latino

Asian & PI

Black

White

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Racial Composition Over the Decades


Immigration Turnaround

Annual Immigrant ArrivalsPercentage Change in Net Flow Since 1970

Source: U.S. Census 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000; American Community Survey 2006, 2008 Dowell Myers, USCPrice

U.S.

California

Los Angeles County

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Foreign Born Share of The PopulationLeveling Off

United States

California

Los Angeles

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030


Longer Settled Immigrant Share RisesForeign Born Share of All LA ResidentsBy Length of Time in U.S.

<10 yrs

10 to 19 yrs

20 to 29 yrs

30 yrs+

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

� 1970 � 1980 � 1990 � 2000 � 2010 � 2020 � 2030

Per

cen

tage

of

all L

A C

oun

ty R

esid

ents




1990 Outlook 2010 and beyondAccelerated immigration Diminished immigration,

even during good economy

Most immigrants are recent Most are long-settledarrivals immigrants & older

Immigrant share soaring Immigrant share constantand assumed unlimited and stable for the future

A revolution in outlook on immigration

Generation Transformation

Declining Numbers of ChildrenSurging Numbers of Retirees

Annual BirthsNo longer on an Upswing after 1990

Los Angeles California

0

50

100

150

200

250

� 197

0� 1

974

� 197

8� 1

982

� 198

6� 1

990

� 199

4� 1

998

� 200

2� 2

006

� 201

0� 2

014

� 201

8 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

� 197

0� 1

974

� 197

8� 1

982

� 198

6� 1

990

� 199

4� 1

998

� 200

2� 2

006

� 201

0� 2

014

� 201

8


Losses of Children Under Age 10Among Counties of Southern California2000 to 2010


-20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Los Angeles

Orange

Ventura

San Diego

CALIFORNIA

Santa Barbara

San Bernardino

Imperial

Riverside

Percentage Losses or Gains

Declining Number of ChildrenIn Millions

0.727 0.738 0.646 0.550 0.518

0.655 0.8020.634

0.544 0.531

0.9441.128

1.1230.973 0.874

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Millions

10‐17

5‐9

0‐4

Growth in Age Groups

1990-2010 2010-2030

-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.0

0-4

5-9

10-1

718

-24

25-3

435

-44

45-5

455

-64

65-7

475

-84

85 +

x 10

0000

-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.0

0-4

5-9

10-1

718

-24

25-3

435

-44

45-5

455

-64

65-7

475

-84

85 +

x 10

0000

Senior Ratio Soars

US

CA

LA

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Seniors (65+) per 100 Working Age (25‐64)




1990 Outlook 2010 and beyondHigh fertility Reduced fertility, even

during good economy

Too many children A shortage of childrenA growing tax burden Not enough taxpayers

and workers for the future

Very few elderly Baby Boomer tsunamicreates soaring senior ratio

A revolution in outlook on the generations

The Homegrown Revolution

Source: Author’s analysis of U.S. Census 1980-2000 and American Community Survey 2005-2008 data

Rise of a Homegrown Majority

Birthplace of Young Compared to OldLA Residents By Age and Birthplace, 2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0‐4 5‐9 10‐17 18‐24 25‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65‐74 75‐84 85 +

Foreign Born

California Born

Other US Born

Pitkin-Myers LA 13

Rising Importance of ChildreniCi

Index of Children’s Importance

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Year of Birth




1990 Outlook 2010 and beyondGrowth coming from outside: Growth from native from immigrants and from Californians: homegrowninter-state

Growth is excess, too costly Too little growth and unwanted; Children need to be moreunder-investment in skill highly nurtured for strongerdevelopment of children per capita productivity and

future prosperity of the stateA revolution in outlook on the homegrown

Conclusions

• What is the most surprising finding about the new generational future of Los Angeles?

Is it the leveling off of the foreign born?Is it the new majority of the homegrown?Could it be the explosion of seniors?Or is it the scarcity of children

and their doubled importance?• Maybe it’s the realization that the residents

might really be connected after all?

The Intergenerational Partnership


More InformationDowell Myers and John Pitkin. 2013. The Generational Future of Los Angeles: Projections to 2030 and Comparisons to Recent Decades. Produced by the Population Dynamics Research Group, Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California. Text and supporting materials will be published at:

http://www.usc.edu/schools/price/research/popdynamics

A short descriptive title for the projection series is:

Pitkin-Myers 2013 Los Angeles Generational Projections.

Thanks for the support ofFirst 5 LAThe John Randolph and Dora Haynes Foundation

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