the outlook for energy: a view to 2040 muhammad nurdin vice president - planning and commercial...
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The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040
Muhammad NurdinVice President - Planning and Commercial ExxonMobil IndonesiaUGM, December 20, 2014
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
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Energy Outlook Development
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
100 countries15 demand
sectors
Residential
Commercial
Lt. Transportation
Hvy. Transportation
Aviation
Marine
Rail
Chemicals
Asphalt
Lubricants
Flaring
Energy Industry
Agriculture
Heavy Industry
Power Generation
Motor Gasoline
Distillate
Naphtha
Jet Fuel
Fuel Oil
LPG
Lubes
Asphalt
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Biomass/Other
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
20 fuel types
Solar
Wind
Bio-mogas
Bio-distillate
Electricity
Market Heat
Technology & Policy
Trade Flows
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Energy Saved ~500
Energy DemandQuadrillion BTUs
Energy DemandQuadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
1.0%
Global Progress Drives Demand
Billion
Population GDPTrillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
2.8%
OECD
Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Leading Economic Growth 2010 to 2040
China~40%
India~15%
Key Growth
20%
Other25%
Percent Share
60+ Countries
10 Countries
Key Growth Countries (2040)
2040 Energy Demand
QUADS
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Mexico
Nigeria
South Africa
Thailand
EgyptTurkey
Indonesia
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Energy DemandQuadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
2.2%
Southeast Asia Energy Trends
Billion
Population GDPTrillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
0.9%
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
4.2%
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Southeast Asia Energy Demand by Country
By CountryQuadrillion BTUs
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
By FuelQuadrillion BTUs
Vietnam
Singapore
Rest of Southeast Asia
Philippines
Oil
Gas
CoalNuclear
Biomass
Other Renewables
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Residential/Commercial
Semanggi - Jakarta
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Residential/Commercial Outlook
By Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
Commercial
Residential
By Region
Quadrillion BTUs
Rest of World
OECD
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
India
Africa
China
Oil
Gas
Coal
Biomass
Electricity
Other
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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S.E. Asia Residential/Commercial Demand
By SectorQuadrillion BTUs
Residential
Commercial
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
By FuelQuadrillion BTUs
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other Renewables
Electricity
Coal
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Industrial
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Southeast Asia Industrial Demand
By SectorQuadrillion BTUs
Other
Heavy Industry
Chemicals
Energy Industry
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
By FuelQuadrillion BTUs
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Coal
Electricity
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Transportation
Alun-alun Selatan
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Commercial Transportation by Region - 2010Commercial Transportation by Region - 2040Sector DemandMBDOE
Light Duty
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
Aviation
Transportation Demand
MBDOE
2010
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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S.E. Asia Transportation Demand & Fleet Shift
TransportationMBDOE
Light Duty Vehicle FleetMillion Cars
Light Duty
Aviation
Heavy Duty
Marine
Rail
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Electricity Generation
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Southeast Asia Electricity Demand
Electricity Generation Fuel ConsumptionQuadrillion BTUs
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Electricity DemandThousand Terawatt Hour
Wind & Solar
Other Renewables
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Emissions Semanggi - Jakarta
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Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by RegionBillion Tonnes
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Asia Pacific
North America
Russia/Caspian
Europe
2010
2040
Emissions per CapitaTonnes / Person
CO2 Emissions Plateau
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Supply
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Liquids Supply
Liquid Supply by TypeMBDOE
Other
Biofuels
Conventional Crude & Condensate
Tight OilOil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
Crude and Condensate Resource*
Cumulative Production through 2040
Remaining Resource
Trillion barrels of oil
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
* Source: IEA
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Gas Resources Abundant; Supply Diversifies
Thousand TCFGas Production by RegionRemaining Recoverable Resource*BCFD
Conventional
Unconventional
BCFD
Unconventional
Conventional
ROW
Gas Production by Type
2012
AP
NA
Africa
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Russia/Caspian
Europe
North America
Latin America
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
* Source: IEA
Africa
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Russia/Caspian
Europe
North America
Latin America
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Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Quadrillion BTUs
Global Mix of Fuels
1800 1900 20001850 1950
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Other Renewables
2040
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Positioned to Take on the Challenges
History
Technology
WorkforceBusinessStrength
Corporate Citizenship
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LNG tanker
Advanced Drilling —Surpassing 7 Miles Horizontally
Technology and Innovations
Oil Sands
Arctic
Unconventional Gas
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Global Organization
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115 Years of Presence in Indonesia
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Aceh Production Operations Cepu Block
Three onshore gas fields. Divided in two Arun PSCs, South Lhoksukon (SLS) A and D, as well as one offshore gas field, the North Sumatra Offshore (NSO) A.
Gas produced from fields is sent to a facility owned by PT Arun NGL then managed to become LNG. Until now, PT Arun has supplied more than 4000 cargoes of LNG to Pertamina for sale to consumers in Korea and Japan.
Banyu Urip Project Status
• Banyu Urip is being built by 10,000 Indonesian workers, who make up 95 percent of the overall workforce
• Initial production of oil with a capacity of up to 40,000 barrels per day
• The project is expected to reach daily production capacity of 165,000 barrels in 2015.
• Banyu Urip will continue to ramp up production until it reaches full-field capacity in 2015.
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Conclusions
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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