the pathway towards fossil parity for renewable - pareto … hydrogen.pdf · the pathway towards...
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The pathway towards fossil parity for renewable
hydrogen Bjørn Simonsen
VICE PRESIDENT MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND PUBLIC RELATIONS
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Hydrogen Fueling Hydrogen Solutions
..of hydrogen technology experience and excellence
90 years
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Nel ASA
• Global, listed, pure-play hydrogen company – facilities in Norway, Denmark and the U.S.
• Significant foothold in fast-growing markets & a solid backlog
• World-leading on hydrogen electrolyzers and fueling equipment – unrivalled performance and track-record
• Complete range of products optimally positioned for large market opportunities
• Capable of delivering solutions to produce, store and distribute hydrogen from renewable energy – serving industry, energy and gas companies
• >3500 hydrogen solutions delivered in ~80 countries world wide since 1927
Hydrogen Electrolysers Hydrogen Fueling Hydrogen Solutions Thre
e bu
sine
ss
segm
ents
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Fossil parity Renewable hydrogen outcompeting fossil hydrogen in the industry
sector and fossil fuel in the transportation sector
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Global hydrogen market General market update
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Global hydrogen market, by end-use:
Ammonia Refineries Methanol Other
• ~55 million ton/year market (~150 BUSD) • 15% merchant market (5 – 15 $/kg) • 85% on-site (~2$/kg)
• Only 1% from water electrolysis today, rest from SMR/gasification • Large potential for growth, driven by increasing focus on:
• climate and renewable energy • decreasing electricity prices • decreasing electrolyser CAPEX
• Special focus on refineries and green ammonia • Account for ~80% of market
• Assuming that total market is supplied by electrolysis, the market potential would be >200 B$
Large opportunities for electrolysis within the already existing hydrogen market
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Overall hydrogen market set to grow 10x by 2050
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General market update
If high share of RE, electrolysis market can potentially grow ~2000x
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The pathway towards fossil parity for renewable hydrogen General market update
~2015 ~2020 ~X-years
Nel electrolysis (large scale alkaline) [$/kW] <700 <500 <350
Solar (utility scale) [$/kW] ~1,500 ~700 <500
Solar PPA [$/kWh] 0.04 – 0.06 0.02 – 0.04 0.015 – 0.02
Total hydrogen production cost [$/kg] 2.7 – 4.0 1.3 – 2.7 1.0 – 1.3
• Large electrolyzer facilities from Nel already at CapEx parity with medium scale SMR1
• Nel targets to reach CapEx parity with large scale SMRs in foreseeable future
• Solar PV at utility scale has today reached a price of < 1 $/W
• LCOE from solar expected to drop by another 66% by 20402
• At 0.04 $/kWh renewable hydrogen is reaching fossil parity on an OpEx basis
1: SMR – steam methane reformer 2: Bloomberg New Energy Outlook 2017
Cost split of H2/Kg
CapEx OpEx
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Electrolysis off-grid/50% util. leads to 10 – 20% higher cost General market update
• 2020-numbers used in graph to the right
• Green line is off-grid/renewable
• Due to CAPEX accounting for low share of TCO, price sensitivity not very high on capacity utilization
Cost of H2 closely tied to cost of electricity Off-grid reduced utilization, increased H2 cost
~85% (on-site)
~15% (merchant)
1%
(toda
y’s
elec
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ser m
arke
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0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.2
Elec
trici
ty p
rice
[$/k
Wh]
Hydrogen production cost, including depreciation [$/kg]
Hydrogen cost
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Power-to-X General market update
Power
POWER-TO-GAS
POWER-TO-FUEL
POWER-TO-POWER
POWER-TO-LIQUID (BIOFUEL)
POWER-TO-NH3 (GREEN AMMONIA)
POWER-TO-CH3OH (GREEN METHANOL)
POWER-TO-CH4 (GREEN METHANE)
CO2-FREE STEEL/TITANIUM SLAG
• Hydrogen from electrolysis will be key in producing large quantities of sustainable energy in various forms
• Ability to adapt to diverse and intermittent renewable energy sources becoming increasingly important
Unparalleled position of electrolysis in producing other green energy forms
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H2
POWER-TO-OTHER (REFINERIES)
+ CO2
+ CO2
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Hydrogen is becoming relevant in all forms of transport
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General market update
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Recent survey increases the importance of hydrogen as a fuel
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“There will not be a single solitary drivetrain technology: Executives project a similar split by 2040 for BEVs (26%), FCEVs (25%), ICEs (25%) and hybrids (24%).”
“Fuel cell electric vehicles have replaced battery electric vehicles as this year’s #1 key trend until 2025”
#1 KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey is the compound input from 1000 executives from the automotive industry
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Fossil parity in the transport sector is achievable
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• Centralized production can use low cost RE and achieve high scale – Onsite prod. eliminates costs for distribution
• Centralized vs Onsite depends on power availability and pricing in the specific market
• <40€/MWh is needed for central production together with 50/70MPa trailers | <60€/MWh is needed for onsite
General market update
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What we do
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Nel Hydrogen Electrolyser
• Global leader in electrolysis based hydrogen production plants
• highest uptime, lowest conversion cost, robust and reliable
• Unrivalled track-record with >3500 hydrogen solutions delivered in >80 countries world wide since 1927
• Scalable production capacity for industrial and energy/transport applications – small scale to large scale solutions
Small scale turn-key modules Up to 600kg/day
Large scale plant solutions Up to any capacity size
Nel Hydrogen Electrolyser Production and installation of water electrolysers for hydrogen production
Alkaline and PEM electrolyzers Scalable and modular
Solar Grid Wind
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Markets served by water electrolysers
Renewable hydrogen opportunities
Chemical Industry Power Industry Steel Industry
Food Industry Glass Industry Polysilicon Industry Transport Sector
Historical market New markets
Laboratories
Life support
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Nel Hydrogen Fueling
• Global leader within hydrogen fueling solutions for vehicles, first to adapt the newest fueling standards
• Manufactured ~40 stations & delivered to 8 countries across Europe since 2003, ~20 currently in order
• Highest reported availability and innovative, in-house developed innovative technologies
High capacity, smallest footprint 200 kg/day, 10m2
Flexible installation, smallest footprint 50 m from station, 1/3 size of normal dispenser
Largest manufacturing facility 300 station per year capacity
Nel Hydrogen Fueling Production of hydrogen fueling stations for cars, buses, trucks, forklifts and other applications
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Station Module Dispenser Hydrogen Fueling storage
Hydrogen supply storage
H2Station®
• Compact modular turn-key system with flexible site integration
• Designed for volume manufacturing for EU & USA
Fueling station modules – designed for volume manufacturing Nel Hydrogen Fueling
70MPa
35MPa
35MPa
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Nel Hydrogen Solutions
• Unified delivery of complex renewable hydrogen solutions, efficient system integration, project development and sales across segments
Nel Hydrogen Solutions Utilizing market opportunities across the Nel group and offers complete solutions to customers
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• Sole provider of integrated solutions along the entire value chain:
1. Fueling Networks
2. Renewable Hydrogen & Storage Solutions
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Project examples
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Delivering megawatt PEM electrolyser systems for FC-buses in China Project examples
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● Delivered MW-systems under agreement between Nel/Proton and Synergy in China ● Synergy also cooperating with Ballard on fuel cell technology
● Total agreement covers up to 13 MW-systems with a total value, including installation and associated services, of more than USD 22 million
Providing sustainable fuel for the growing FC-bus population
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PEM electrolyzer and H2Station® for bus fueling in California
● First integrated Nel/Proton product offering
● One M-400 2 MW Proton PEM electrolyzer
● Two H2Station® for buses
● Total contract value of USD >8 million
● Delivery during 2018
Project examples
High capacity station for 25 buses in CA
Hydrogen storage Station module Dispensers 1 MW PEM electrolysis
35MPa
35MPa
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Supplying fueling stations to Shell in California
• Nel has exclusive framework contract with Shell (in partnership with Toyota and Honda) for supply, construction and maintenance of hydrogen stations San Francisco CA • Initial purchase order received Q1’17 with value of NOK ~140 million
• Received additional purchase order with value of NOK ~50 million during Q3
• H2Station® modules expected to ship in H1-2018
• Shell has issued an RFI for additional 100 hydrogen stations to California • Visibility on deliveries will help the industry to reduce costs
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Project examples
Locations where Shell receives CEC grants from current round of funding
Shell hydrogen stations in Northern CA Exclusive framework contract with Shell
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• Potential project of ~20 MW electrolysis
• Renewable hydrogen for multiple purposes: • Replace fossil hydrogen used in refinery process
• Energy storage and power generation
• Hydrogen used for transportation purposes
• Other value streams: • Oxygen used locally within refinery
• Heat used for city district heating
• Solution relevant for oil refineries across the globe
Multi-value stream project in Denmark
Potential large scale energy storage project in Fredericia, Denmark Project examples
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Shell oil refinery in Fredericia, Denmark
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World’s largest power-to-gas project planned for France
• H2V PRODUCT (FR) will inject hydrogen into natural gas grid in France • In dialogue with French government on incentive scheme to
realise the project
• Largest power-to-gas project in history • 700 MW | 380 M$ project • Direct injection of hydrogen and biogas in natural gas grid
• Design is ready & land secured
• Project phase during 2018 – 2025
• Location: Les Hauts and Normandie-regions in France
Project examples
700 MW electrolyser plant for power-to-gas in Northern France
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Delivering mega-scale hydrogen fueling stations for Nikola
• Sole equipment supplier to create the largest hydrogen fueling network in the world
• 16 mega-scale stations covering 2000 miles & up to 450 ton/day
• Signed PO for first two demo stations (each is 1 ton/day)
• Remaining 14 stations will have a capacity ranging from 8 – 32 ton/day
• Installation during 2019 – 2021
Project examples
Entered into exclusive partnership with Nikola Motor
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Additional support from Enova to Uno-X Hydrogen fueling stations
• Uno-X Hydrogen received support to establish 2 new hydrogen fueling stations in Ås & Hvam, Akershus
• After installation, JV will operate 5 HRS in Southern Norway
• Åsane, Bergen opens formally 26th of January 2018
• Currently ~90 FCEVs in Norway, annual sales growth of >2x
• Total of 4 HRS in Norway in 2017, 8 HRS in 2018
Project examples
20 MNOK support for establishment of 2 additional HRS in Akershus in 2018
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Hyon is equally owned by Nel ASA, Hexagon Composites ASA and PowerCell Sweden AB, and utilizes each partner’s respective world-leading technologies and competencies to manage and develop projects for effectively integrating and optimal zero-emission power solutions
for the customers
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1927 ..back to start?
2027
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Thanks for the ride, dinosaurs! We’ll take it from here.