the perils of measurement

32
The Perils of Measurement Dr Chris Yapp [email protected]

Upload: chris-yapp

Post on 04-Nov-2014

347 views

Category:

Business


2 download

DESCRIPTION

 

TRANSCRIPT

2. The Big Problem of MeasurementHitting the TargetMissing the Point 3. Let me tell you a storyIf we did Will the automobileimpact on society? Ifthings then so, how?the way wedo things now 4. Charles Handy on Change.. Performance B E A C D Time12/03/20124 5. Problem Types Do we know whereScaling practice YES We are going? Best practice TASK: TASK: Process Operational Development ManagementNOYES Do we know TASK: TASK: How to get Concept Direction There? CreationSettingNext practice Emerging practice NOAfter Eddie Obeng 12/03/2012 5 6. The Public Sector doesnt innovate because.... It cant go out of business Exceptionalism Its a monopoly or pseudo-competition Lack of competition Lack of skills.. Regulation Targets Politics Leadership Culture Trade Unions.......YAWN12/03/2012 6 7. Great Ormond Street12/03/20127 8. Diffusion of Innovations12/03/2012 8 9. Why do some Innovations takelonger to diffuse? Homophily Heterophily12/03/2012 9 10. High Whose problem?PoliticalSystem ThinkComplexity TankConsultantWisdom ofThe Crowds Academic /Expert Low Low HighUncertainty12/03/201210 11. HighWhat value? Political SystemThinkComplexityTank Track recordIdeasConsultantWisdom ofThe Crowds Knowledge Academic /Expert Low Low High Uncertainty12/03/201211 12. High During Step Change?PoliticalSystemConsultancy ThinkComplexitysqueezed as limited Tanktrack record ConsultantWisdom ofThe Crowds Academic /Expert Low LowHighUncertainty12/03/201212 13. Wisdom of the CrowdsIn the Future blind People willBe able to drive cars12/03/2012 13 14. Results Probability 0.9 with some 0.2 Today with Resources: 1-3 years In practice: 3-10 years In reality: 10-100 years12/03/2012 14 15. How Far? The Three HorizonsSource: IFFMarch 12 Chris Yapp15 16. Measure What?Input Process Output Outcome3/12/201216 17. Measure How? Measurement X is the output of a measurement process. Change the process and you change X Examples: Unemployment, Truancy, Speed of Light How consistent is the process? Bias, self-selection? Skills? Channel? Human Factors Operational Definitions3/12/201217 18. Starting the Journey Inputs Process People Time Skills Errors Money Variation Information Resources Efficiency and QualityEffectiveness and Consistency3/12/201218 19. W Edwards Deming It is important that an aim never be defined in terms of activity or methods. It must always relate directly to how life is better for everyone... The aim of the system must be clear to everyone in the system. The aim must include plans for the future. The aim is a value judgment.3/12/201219 20. Jakes story Jake is 28. he didnt do well at school. His parents split when he was 15. he dropped out of school. Within 2 years he was homeless. He took to drink and drugs. He stole to fund the habit and ended up in prison. Inside he was found to be dyslexic. His support stopped when he was released. He drifted, with spells of work and homelessness. Last year he met his first real girlfriend. She is now pregnant. They are very happy and Jake wishes to build the home and family he never had. He wants to get skills for a good job.3/12/2012 20 21. Helping Jake Outputs OutcomesHousing Skills Break generational cycleFamily Stable FamilyWork Ability to earn and work Dependency Jake mentoring others.3/12/201221 22. Open Innovation Innovating with lead users Co-design Co-creation Co-deliver 12/03/201222 23. Unintended Consequences Counter-intuitive result Interaction between different parts of system Targets distorting the system performance Performance measures reducing performance Injecting resources without involvement of key people Source: DEMOS; System Failure 24. Targets and Timescales All children should 80% of children should achieve their fullmeet the target by 2015 potential in education3/12/201224 25. Two useful ways of thinking.. Triple-loop learning Ashbys Law of Requisite Variety3/12/2012 25 26. Triple-Loop LearningSet ChangeReframeMaximise yieldAt lowest priceAnd reduce carbon3/12/2012 26 27. The ChallengeYieldCarbonTemperatureTemperatureCost ofEnergyTemperature3/12/2012 27 28. Ashbys Law of Requisite Variety The Economy If a system is to beIncrease number of people stable, it must have at least working as many control levers as Reduce the Debt degrees of freedomGrow the economy Green the economy3/12/201228 29. Organisational culture Specialists and generalists Personal credibility Tolerance of uncertainty Story telling Leadership Collaboration12/03/2012 29 30. Organisational Roles in Innovation Sponsor Product Champion Organisational Champion12/03/2012 30 31. Beware Whose definitions? Who is measuring? What gets Input, Process,Output or measured gets Outcome Shared Targets done? Unintended consequences3/12/2012 31 32. Leadership or Management? "The most important figures that one needs for management are unknown or unknowable (Lloyd S. Nelson, director of statistical methods for the Nashua corporation), but successful management must nevertheless take account of them."3/12/2012 32