ipsos perils of perception
DESCRIPTION
La ricerca mondiale sui pregiudiziTRANSCRIPT
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 1
Perils of Perception
A FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 2
These are the findings from our 14
country study looking at how accurate –
or inaccurate – people are when asked
to estimate basic facts about their
population or social issues.
It shows how wrong we often are:
Perceptions are not reality…
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 3
IN YOUR OPINION WHAT
PERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED
BETWEEN 15 AND 19 GIVE
BIRTH EACH YEAR?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 4
24 3
18 1
17 0.5
16 2
15 1
16 3
15 2
14 0.4
14 0.2
14 1
12 0.6
11 0.7
11 0.5
8 0.7
+21
+17
+17
+14
+14
+14
+14
+14
+13
+13
+12
+11
+10
+7
US
Poland
Italy
Hungary
Canada
Great Britain
Australia
Germany
South Korea
Spain
France
Belgium
Japan
Sweden
AVG.
GUESS ACTUAL % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH
Q. In your opinion
what percentage of
girls aged between 15
and 19 give birth each
year?
People across the
world hugely
overestimate the
proportion of
teenagers who
give birth each
year.
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 5
Ave
rag
e g
ue
ss %
% Girls aged between 16 and 19 years that give birth each year
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 1 2 3 4
People across the world hugely
overestimate the proportion of
teenagers who give birth each
year.
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low
Q. In your opinion
what percentage of
girls aged between 15
and 19 give birth each
year?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 6
WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE
POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE
IMMIGRANTS TO THIS
COUNTRY?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 7
30 7
32 13
29 10
28 10
16 2
35 21
14 1.75
24 13
23 12
23 13
10 2
10 2
23 16
35 28
+23
+19
+19
+18
+14
+14
+12
+11
+11
+10
+8
+8
+7
+7
Italy
US
Belgium
France
Hungary
Canada
Poland
Great Britain
Spain
Germany
Japan
South Korea
Sweden
Australia
AVG.
GUESS ACTUAL % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH
Q. What percentage of
the population do you
think are immigrants to
this country?
All countries
overestimate
their level of
immigration
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 8
Ave
rag
e g
ue
ss %
% Immigrants to this country
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Q. What percentage of
the population do you
think are immigrants to
this country?
All countries
overestimate their
level of immigration
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 9
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW
MANY DO YOU THINK ARE
MUSLIM?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 10
31 8
29 6
20 2
18 2
21 5
20 4
15 1
16 2
19 6
17 5
7 0.1
5 0.4
5 0.1
4 0.1
AVG.
GUESS ACTUAL
+23
+23
+18
+16
+16
+16
+14
+14
+13
+12
+7
+5
+5
+4
France
Belgium
Canada
Australia
Great Britain
Italy
US
Spain
Germany
Sweden
Hungary
South Korea
Poland
Japan
TOO HIGH % POINT DIFFERENCE
Q. Out of every 100
people how many do
you think are Muslim?
People in a
number of
countries
massively
overestimate
the proportion
of Muslims
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 11
Ave
rag
e g
ue
ss %
% Muslims
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Q. Out of every 100
people how many do
you think are Muslim?
People in a number of
countries massively
overestimate the proportion
of Muslims
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 12
National
Perceptions
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW
MANY DO YOU THINK ARE
CHRISTIAN?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 13
+13
+10
+9
-14
-14
-15
-15
-16
-18
-19
-20
-21
-22
South Korea
Japan
Hungary
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
Poland
Australia
Belgium
Sweden
Great Britain
Canada
US
42 29
12 2
62 53
58 58
69 83
49 63
62 77
79 94
45 61
46 64
48 67
39 59
49 69
56 78
% POINT DIFFERENCE
AVG.
GUESS ACTUAL TOO LOW TOO HIGH
Q. Out of every 100
people how many do
you think are Christian?
In contrast to the
Muslim question,
majority-Christian
countries tend to
underestimate
how many people
count themselves
as Christian.
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Ave
rag
e g
ue
ss %
% Christians
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Q. Out of every 100
people how many do
you think are Christian?
In contrast to the Muslim
question, majority-Christian
countries tend to underestimate
how many people count
themselves as Christian.
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 15
National
Perceptions
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW
MANY DO YOU THINK ARE
OVER 65?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 16
48 21
42 15
39 14
43 18
37 14
36 14
40 18
41 19
38 18
37 17
40 21
41 25
32 16
33 19
+27
+27
+25
+25
+23
+22
+22
+22
+20
+20
+19
+16
+16
+14
Italy
Poland
Canada
Spain
Australia
US
Hungary
Belgium
France
Great Britain
Germany
Japan
South Korea
Sweden
AVG.
GUESS ACTUAL % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH
Q. Out of every 100
people how many do
you think are over 65?
All countries
hugely
overestimate the
proportion of
their population
aged 65+
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 17
Ave
rag
e g
ue
ss %
% Over 65
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Q. Out of every 100
people how many do
you think are over 65?
All countries hugely
overestimate the proportion
of their population aged 65+
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 18
National
Perceptions
OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLE
VOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DO
YOU THINK VOTED IN THE LAST
ELECTION?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 19
57 80
54 75
49 66
47 64
60 76
43 59
55 69
58 72
72 85
51 61
57 67
84 93
42 49
85 89 -4
-7
-9
-10
-10
-13
-14
-14
-16
-16
-17
-17
-21
-23
AVG.
GUESS ACTUAL
France
Italy
Great Britain
Hungary
South Korea
Japan
Spain
Germany
Sweden
Canada
US
Australia
Poland
Belgium
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW
Q. Out of every 100
eligible voters how
many do you think
voted in the last
election?
All countries
underestimate
the proportion of
the population
that voted in the
last major
national
election
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 20
Ave
rag
e g
ue
ss %
% Voted in last election
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Q. Out of every 100
eligible voters how
many do you think
voted in the last
election?
All countries underestimate
the proportion of the
population that voted in the
last major national election
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 21
National
Perceptions
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF
WORKING AGE ABOUT HOW
MANY DO YOU THINK ARE
UNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING
FOR WORK?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 22
49 12
32 4
39 11
32 6
34 9
31 8
46 25
29 9
23 6
24 7
24 8
23 7
19 4
20 6 +14
+15
+16
+16
+17
+17
+20
+21
+23
+25
+26
+28
+28
+37 Italy
South Korea
Hungary
US
Poland
Belgium
Spain
France
Australia
Great Britain
Sweden
Canada
Japan
Germany
AVG.
GUESS ACTUAL % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH
Q. Out of every 100
people of working age
about how many do you
think are unemployed
and looking for work?
Unemployment
levels are
hugely
overestimated in
every country
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 23
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Ave
rag
e g
ue
ss %
% Unemployed and looking for work
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Q. Out of every 100
people of working age
about how many do you
think are unemployed
and looking for work?
Unemployment levels are
hugely overestimated in
every country
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 24
National
Perceptions
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE
AGED BETWEEN 18 AND 24
ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK
ARE NOT IN EDUCATION,
EMPLOYMENTOR TRAINING?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 25
37 9
39 17
31 12
51 35
23 8
28 14
22 8
34 20
37 24
38 28
31 21
30 24
29 26
46 54
+28
+22
+19
+16
+15
+14
+14
+14
+13
+10
+10
+6
+3
-8
South Korea
US
Australia
Italy
Germany
Canada
Japan
Belgium
France
Hungary
Great Britain
Sweden
Poland
Spain
AVG.
GUESS ACTUAL TOO LOW TOO HIGH % POINT DIFFERENCE
Q. Out of every 100
people aged between
18-24 about how many
do you think are not in
education, employment
or training?
Youth
unemployment is
underestimated
in every country
except Spain
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 26
Ave
rag
e g
ue
ss %
% 18-24 not in education, employment or training
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Youth unemployment is
underestimated in every
country except Spain
Q. Out of every 100
people aged between
18-24 about how many
do you think are not in
education, employment
or training?
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 27
National
Perceptions
WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFE
EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A
CHILD BORN IN 2014?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 28
89 80
83 80
85 82
85 82
82 80
81 80
82 81
82 82
80 82
78 80
81 84
78 82
72 77
68 75
AVG.
GUESS ACTUAL
Q. What do you think
the life expectancy will
be of a child born in
2014?
+9
+3
+3
+3
+2
+1
+1
-2
-2
-3
-4
-5
-7
South Korea
Great Britain
France
Sweden
Germany
Belgium
Spain
Australia
Canada
US
Japan
Italy
Poland
Hungary
TOO LOW TOO HIGH DIFFERENCE IN YEARS
People in most
countries have
a fairly
accurate
picture of life
expectancy
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 29
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90
Ave
rag
e g
ue
ss %
Average life expectancy
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Q. What do you think
the life expectancy will
be of a child born in
2014?
People in most
countries have a fairly
accurate picture of life
expectancy
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 30
Looking across all questions,
we have calculated a
measure of how accurate
the population of each
country is.
This gives us our
“Index of Ignorance”
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 31
Italy
US
South Korea
Poland
Hungary
France
Canada
Belgium
Australia
Great Britain
Spain
Japan
Germany
Sweden
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
7th
2nd
10th
6th
11th
8th
14th
1st
13th
4th
3
rd
12th
9th
5th
INDEX OF
IGNORANCE
Sweden
Germany
Japan Spain
GB
US
Poland Hungary
Italy
South Korea
Belgium
France Canada
Australia
(Least accurate at top)
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 32
National
Perceptions PERILS OF
PERCEPTION IN
ITALY
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 33
0,5 4
12 7
21
35
83
75 78
17 20
49
30
48 51
69
54
82
%15-19 girls that
gave birth
%Muslim
%Unemployed
%Immigrants
%Over 65
%18-24s not in
education,employment or
training
%Christian
%Voted
Lifeexpectancy
OVERALL
Summary.
Actual guess Average guess