the philippine economy: 2011 and beyond
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The Philippine Economy: 2011 and Beyond. Three Growth Sectors Business Process Outsourcing Tourism Mining Hard Infrastructure Support Transport and Telecommunications Utilities Power Facilities Soft Infrastructure Support Education Governance Finance. Construction Industry. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Philippine Economy: 2011 and Beyond
• Three Growth Sectors– Business Process Outsourcing– Tourism– Mining
• Hard Infrastructure Support– Transport and Telecommunications– Utilities– Power– Facilities
• Soft Infrastructure Support– Education– Governance– Finance
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 F20110.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Construction-to-GDP ratio GDP
Construction Output (in billion USD) and share to total GDP (%)
Source: NSCB
Construction Industry
Construction Industry
Employment in the Construction Industry (in Thousand)
6.40%
36.60%
57.00%
In Terms of Size
Large Contractors (AAA & AA)Medium sized Contractors (A&B)Small Contractors
59.90%
31.40%
3.80% 4.90%
Classification
General Engineering General BuildingTradeSpecialty
Total licensed contractors = 3,325
Construction Industry
Source: PCA Industry Report
213
1,8951,217
1,992
163126
1,044
10
4
3
11
1 1
21 Foreign Contractors
Japan China Korean ThaiAustrian Malaysian Australian
Construction Industry
Source: PCA Industry Report
Construction Industry
Prospects
Tourism – hotels, airports BPO – buildings Mining – office sites, mine developmentPower – power plantsPPP / Infrastructure – PPP list
Tarlac-Pangasinan-La Union Expressway (TPLEX)
• 88 km initially two-lane road
• 5-year construction
• BTO with 30-year concession
• $345M – project cost with $84M government subsidy
• Construction started in 2Q 2010; $43M
Road
Construction IndustryProspective Public-Private Partnership (PPP) List
TOLL ROADS• TPLEX Tarlac-La Union (ongoing) $345M• Daang Hari- Slex Link (ongoing) $36M• NAIA Expressway Phase 2 $235M• Cavite-Laguna (North-South) Expressway $233M• NLEX-SLEX Connector $477M
LIGHT RAIL• LRT 1 South Extension $1.5B• LRT Line 2 Phase 2 $251M
Prospective Public-Private Partnership (PPP) List
Construction Industry
AIRPORTS• Bohol Airport $169M• Puerto Princessa $98M• Legaspi Airport $71M• O&M Laguindingan Airport $33M
EDUCATION
• School Infrastructure Projects $233M
Real Estate
F
Source: BSP
OFW REMITTANCES
Real Estate
Socialized Low cost Mid Income High Rise Condo
Commercial & Others
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Issued Licenses to Sell
Source: HLURB
BIR: Increased Threshold for VAT Exemption in 2012
Not subjected to VAT
• Sale of a residential lot which is not more than USD46 thousand per unit from USD35 thousand
• Sale of a residential house and lot which is not more than USD74 thousand from USD58 thousand
• Lease of residentuial units which is not more than USD296.00
Real Estate
Real Estate
Foreign Ownership limitation on owning real properties
Entry Points
REIT – currently under discussionListed real estate companies
Source: DOE, Investment Opportunities Report by Usec. Asirit
Energy
Source: DOE, Investment Opportunities Report by Usec. Asirit
Energy
Source: DOE, Investment Opportunities Report by Usec. Asirit
TOTAL 5,438.0 838.0 5,116.0 2,428.8 80.0 9,510.8 14,878.8
Energy
Energy
Source: DOE, 2010 Power Situationer Report
Installed and Dependable Capacity, Philippines
Energy
Source: DOE, 2010 Power Situationer Report
Coal; 34%
Oil; 10%
Natural Gas; 29%
Geo-thermal; 15%
Hydro; 12%
Coal;
29.75%
Oil; 19.52
%
Natura
l Gas;
17.49%
Geothermal; 12.02%
Hy-dro; 20.78% Wind; 0.20%
Solar; 0.01%Biomass; 0.24%
Installed capacity = 16,359 MW Dependable capacity = 13,902 MW
Installed and Dependable Capacities in MW, Total Philippines
Energy
Source: DOE, 2010 Power Situationer Report
Gross Generation by Plant Type, in GWhr
Energy
Source: DOE, 2010 Power Situationer Report
Coal;
34%
Oil; 10%
Natural Gas; 29%
Geothermal; 15%
Hydro; 12%
2010 Gross Power Generation, Philippines
Total Generation = 67,743 Gwh
Energy
Source: DOE, 2010 Power Situationer Report
71%
29%
Non-NPC NPC
Generation by Ownership, in GWhrTotal Philippines
48,442 GWh
19,786 GWh
Energy
Luzon Visayas Mindanao -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Required Additional Capacity Committed CapacityExisting Capacity Required Reserve MarginPeak Demand
2011-2020
Luzon Visayas Mindanao -
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000
Required Additional Capacity Committed CapacityExisting Capacity Required Reserve MarginPeak Demand
2021-2030
MW
MW
Supply-Demand Outlook
The Philippines needs a total additional capacity of 14,100 MW
onwards to 2030
Source: DOE, 2011 Power Demand and Supply outlook
MABUHAY!