the power of public opinion: pitfalls and...

NPO COLLABORATION DIALOGUR MAY 2017

The Power of Public Opinion: Pitfalls and Potential

Ubiquitous social media platforms are creating a world characterised by radical transparency. Corporations can no longer conceal their actions or secrets. Technological advances, including the emergence of the Internet of things, are generating huge amounts of data; more importantly, sophisticated analytics is converting that data into deep insight into the behaviour of humans and their organisations. http://www.adamsadams.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/King-IV-Report.pdf

We are the world’s leading opinion mining company.

Opinion mining (also known as sentiment analysis) refers to the use of natural language processing, text analysis and computational linguistics to identify and extract subjective information… Generally speaking, opinion data analysis aims to determine the attitude of a speaker or a writer with respect to some topic…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentiment_analysis

We believe that how people feel today influences what they do tomorrow.

Understanding one person is easy

Understanding everybody is hard

Sentiment clearly negative

Humans get humans

Machines are not great at understanding the nuances of human conversation (e.g. sarcasm)


Sorry, wrong!


Wrong again!

60% (at best)

machine

97% machine crowd

Opinion mining isn’t a big data problem, it is one of human understanding

CASE STUDY

Murray & Roberts IMPORTANCE OF RAPID RESPONSE

Background After the collapse of a Grayston bridge in Sandton on 14 October 2015 where two people died and 19 others were injured, the public took to social media to express their concern and anger towards the building companies involved.

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Negative Sentiment Share Price

Share price vs negative sentiment

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SOCIAL MEDIA HAS REAL-WORLD IMPLICATIONS

SANDTON BRIDGE COLLAPSE. M&R sees a 7% fall in share price on the day

October 2015

When did Murray & Roberts respond?

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14 October 2015 15 Oct

Consumers are angered by what they felt were insufficient statements by the company.

M&R issues their first statement through the media. Citizens are angered that they’re not being contacted directly, particularly through social media.

Activity half-life OUTRAGE IS CONCENTRATED IN THE FIRST HOURS AFTER A CRISIS

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All Conversations Outrage

2 days

10 hrs

October 2015

Afrisam’s handling of the crisis In the initial hours after the Sandton Bridge Collapse there was the allegation that an Afrisam cement truck was responsible for the incident.

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18:00 Afrisam responds (they continue to respond until 22:00)

16:57 First allegation that Afrisam truck was involved.

14 October 2015 15 Oct

Content and timing are key Afrisam responded with personal and authentic messages providing all available information in a timely manner.

Content and timing are key

Consumers responded positively.

AfriSam responded with personal and authentic messages providing all available information in a timely manner.

Key insights 1.  In today’s social media fuelled world, blanket responses on traditional media to a crisis are more likely to cause increased reputational damage, which is correlated (and potential causal) to changes in share price.

2.  Quick, honest, personalised and ongoing engagement on social media is key to managing a crisis.

3.  Having a existing social media crisis plan in place helps speed up response and get the messaging right.

“Proactive monitoring of intelligence to identify and respond to incidents, including cyber attacks and adverse social media events. “ King IV

CASE STUDY

Ford Kuga HOW DO PEOPLE REALLY FEEL?

The question we were trying to answer

January 16, 2017 – Ford South Africa issues a safety recall for Kuga models equipped with the 1.6-litre engine to address an engine overheating condition that could cause a fire.

Can AI provide accurate sentiment analysis during a brand crisis, or do we still need human insight to accurately understand how people feel?

Kuga: Not Crowd verified vs Crowd verified 1 DEC 2016 – 19 JAN 2017 Negative Neutral Positive

NOT CROWD VERIFIED CROWD VERIFIED

73,7%

18,4%

7,9%

50,4%

31,3%

18,3%

Kuga: Not Crowd verified vs Crowd verified 1 – 16 FEB 2017 Negative Neutral Positive


72,8%

19,4%

7,8%

52,7%

33,3%

14,0%

Ford Overall Sentiment BEFORE, DURING AND AFTER

2,0%

50,9% 47,1

%

53,1%

38,2%

8,6%

18,5%

46,4%

35,1%

Negative Neutral Positive

BEFORE 1 Oct – 30 Nov 2016

DURING 1 Dec– 19 Jan 2016

AFTER 1 – 16 Feb 2016

Ford: Not Crowd verified vs Crowd verified 1 DEC 2016 – 19 JAN 2017 Negative Neutral Positive

18,5%

46,4%

35,1%

25,6%

43,5%

30,9%


Ford: Not Crowd verified vs Crowd verified 1 – 16 FEB 2017 Negative Neutral Positive

53,1%

38,2%

8,6%

35,4%

43,8%

20,8%


Key insights 1.  Human verification and analysis is critical in getting an accurate understanding of the scope and scale of a brand crisis

2.  Understanding the exact sentiment on social media is important, but only becomes actionable when you also understand the topics driving that sentiment.

The power of Topic Analysis

Understanding public sentiment towards a politician, party, company or brand is useful information. Understanding the detail of the topics that are driving that sentiment is strategic intelligence that can drive competitive advantage and help manage risk effectively.

An interactive tool that allows an in-depth analysis of the key topics driving public opinion.

The BrandsEye Topic Wheel

CASE STUDY

Syrian refugee crisis GENERATING STRATEGIC INSIGHT FROM PUBLIC OPINION DATA

The question we were trying to answer

We did this research on behalf of a global charity who wanted to understand two key things:

1.  What types of humanitarian stories gain the most traction on social media

2.  What is the “half-life” of these impactful stories?

From the answers to these questions, they planned to adapt both the messaging and timing of donation campaigns.

Most Positive

25,2%

24,7%

21,5%

20,3%

20,3%

20,1%

20,1%

Iceland

Unites States of America

Australia

South Africa

Turkey

United Kingdom

Brazil

15,8%

14,1%

13,9%

13,5%

13,0%

12,6%

12,4%

Lebanon

Canada

Ukraine

Ireland

Germany

United Kingdom

Norway

Most Negative

Sentiment by country

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Syrian Refugee conversation Alan Kurdi

Alan Kurdi’s death shocks the world

3 months before

7 000 mentions per week

1 month after


Paris attacks

1 month after


Before & after Alan Kurdi VOLUME OF CONVERSATION ON SOCIAL MEDIA

JUN 2015 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2015

Key insights 1.  Human-centred stories appeal to the emotions of citizens around the world and compel them to share these stories. People are particularly drawn to narratives around the individual, especially children. Stories about groups of people (e.g. factions, cities, camps) are less impactful.

2.  Impactful photos or short videos appear to have the greatest impact and are shared prolifically. Text-based content does not perform well.

3.  Public engagement with a humanitarian story is most pronounced in the first 72hrs after an event – it drops materially after this time. However, the sentiment half-life is 24hrs – i.e. the level of emotive outrage halves after just one day. Calls for donations that happen within this window are up to 10x more effective. Therefore, speed of response from charities is the most vital element when looking to leverage a humanitarian event to gather donations.

4.  Interestingly, no major charity made a call for donations on social media within 48 hours of the Alan Kurdi event.

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Accurate Opinion Data. Better Decisions.

the power of public opinion: pitfalls and...

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