SLDS Webinar

SLDS Webinar 1-27-121The presentation will begin at approximately 2:00 p.m. ET

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A copy of this presentation and a link to the recording will be shared with the IES Grantees and EIMAC listservs.Early Warning SystemsSST Webinar1PanelistsJenny Curtin (Massachusetts)Bill Hurwitch (Maine)Tom Olson (South Carolina)

AgendaBackground and description of each states early warning systemBrief description of indicators or risk factorsInformation from MA users and implications for a new designQuestions from participants

SLDS Webinar 1-27-122Early Warning SystemsSST Webinar23Early Warning SystemsMassachusettsEarly Warning Indicator System Development

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST Webinar34Early Warning Systems -- MAMassachusetts Current Early Warning Indicator IndexMA created an Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII), which has been in place since 2008Each year all first-time grade 9 students are assigned to 1 of 5 risk levels (from very low risk to very high risk)The system has been refined each year but has always been based on middle school data and looked at the likelihood of a student not graduating within 4 years

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST Webinar45Early Warning Systems -- MAIn the current system risk levels assigned are based on five data elements:Spring 2011 grade 8 MCAS mathematics scoresSpring 2011 grade 8 English language arts (ELA) scores2010-11 grade 8 attendance rateNumber of 2009-10 and 2010-11 suspensions (in or out of school)Age as of September 1, 2011

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST WebinarESE used data from the 2008, 2009, and 2010 high school graduation cohorts to evaluate the connection between a students middle school performance and whether they graduated on time. After considering a variety of models, ESE identified one consisting of five factors that, taken together, predicted with a substantial degree of reliability whether a student graduated on time.

While each of the indicators is predictive of on-time graduation for students statewide, ESE found that the degree of predictability of individual indicators differed somewhat for students residing in urban communities versus students who reside in suburban or rural communities. As a result, risk levels were established separately for these populations in proportion to their actual on-time graduation rates.

56Early Warning Systems -- MAIn Process Expanded EWISThe development of the new system will focus on PK-12 and will look more broadly at the likelihood of a child/student falling off trackAmerican Institutes for Research is developing the new risk model based on national research and our local data and needsWe are also garnering multiple stakeholder input:Diverse EWIS Advisory Group at the state level Focus groups and interviews with district and school leaders

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST WebinarWhat has been the value so far and why did we decide to expand? Feedback from districts Successes and challenges to date (timing of the release of the data, only a single snapshot, etc.)

Products created by AIR through this project (and may be shared with other states!): A literature review and analysis of birth through grade 12 early indicators A literature review and analysis of using opportunity indicators to increase the number of students participating in higher-level coursework. Higher Education risk model recommendations which will Identify factors associated with student risk of stopping out and/or dropping out of public higher education. An early indicator risk model for K-12 IN PROCESS

67Early Warning Systems -- MANew Risk Model Key ConceptsAge GroupsFocus on the birth through 12th grade continuumGroups are developmentally appropriate and relevantIndicators Monitoring, end of year, and transitionOutcome VariablesRelevant to age groupActionable by adults responsible for age groupIndicator Risk Thresholds (low, moderate, and high risk)

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST WebinarBoth indicators and outcome variables are limited to data that are available

78Early Warning Systems -- MAAge Groupings and Outcome Variables

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

SST Webinar89Early Warning Systems -- MANext Steps for Expanded EWISThis project also includes the development of a technical solution to provide EWIS data to educatorsTraining will be provided to assist districts in the technical use of the data, as well as best practice for using the data to inform interventionsEWIS can be used as a trigger for further investigation on student needs (root cause analysis) EWIS is not a diagnostic tool

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST WebinarNext steps- We are expecting to be done with the risk model development by the end of March. We are starting to begin requirements gathering among stakeholders for the technical solution and the training Hoping to have the new risk model rolled out in fall 2012

910Early Warning Systems -- MAAdvice for Other StatesRely on stakeholder (internal and external) input throughout the processThere is a constantly changing data landscapeBe open to including data that is newly collected or expected to be collected in the near futureConsider creating a plan to revisit the risk model(s) regularly to refine and improve

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST WebinarImprovements in overall project, as well as helps to garner early buy-in

Example of course schedule data collection

1011Early Warning Systems -- MAMA EWIS information:http://www.doe.mass.edu/ccr/ewi/

MA Commissioners Updates related to the EWIS:http://www.doe.mass.edu/mailings/2011/cm092011.htmlhttp://www.doe.mass.edu/mailings/2012/cm0113.html

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST WebinarImprovements in overall project, as well as helps to garner early buy-in

Example of course schedule data collection

1112Early Warning SystemsMaineMaine At-Risk Data Mart

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST Webinar1213Early Warning Systems -- MESLDS data warehouse module that educators use to identify, address and manage a problem, opportunity or strategy.Uses SLDS data to identify students at riskAllow educators to create, assign and manage programs and interventions for at-risk students and track student progressProvide reports and data for analysis of model results as well as analysis to improve the model and programming

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST Webinar1314Early Warning Systems -- MEAt-Risk Drop-out ModelThe initial model was designed as a high school dropout early warning and management systemStudents are initially evaluated as they enter 9th grade using research-based indicators from SLDS dataEducators can assign learning strategies, programs and interventions and track progress during school year

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST Webinar1415Early Warning Systems -- MESLDS Webinar 1-27-12

SST Webinar1516Early Warning Systems -- MECollege Readiness ModelRequested by the Maine Community College System Presidents CouncilIdentify high school students at risk of needing postsecondary remedial or developmental coursesDeliver the courses during in high schoolImprove student performance on ACCUPLACER and other measures

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST Webinar1617Early Warning Systems -- MECollege Readiness Model GoalsReduce need for remedial or developmental courses in collegeReduce need for students to pay for a non-credit courseIndicate to students not considering postsecondary education that they may be college readyProvide feedback on readiness and success for high schools

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST Webinar1718Early Warning Systems -- MECollege Readiness Indicators*SAT Participation RatesSAT Scores/State Assessment ResultsHigh School GPACompletion of Algebra IIAttendanceCompletion of FAFSACompletion of 4 Years of MathematicsCourse Completion/Scores in Dual Enrollment/Early College, Advanced Placement and International Baccalaureate* New England Secondary School Consortium (CT/ME/NH/RI/VT)

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST Webinar1819Early Warning Systems -- MEConsiderationsValidate early warning system measures and weights with qualified researchEstablish processes to measure student progress and the effectiveness of programs and interventionsProvide the ability for educators to input school level data and programsSoft influences access and security

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST Webinar1920Early Warning SystemsSouth CarolinaStudent Potential Performance Snapshot

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12SST Webinar2021Early Warning Systems -- SCStudent Enrollment Journey13. Re-enrolled Dropout

Discipline, Expulsion, Attendance Indicators:14. At-Risk Discipline Events15. Suspension/Expulsions16. Absence Days

Retention, Grade Indicators:17. Times Retained18. Multiple Enrollments19. 9th Grade Math20. 9th Grade English

At-Risk Indicator Programs and Totals:21. Total At-Risk Indicators22. At-Risk Programs

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12Socio-Economic IndicatorsOverageHomelessSingle ParentDisplaced HomemakerEnglish as a Second LanguageDisabilityMigrantSEI (Socio-Economic Indicator Flag = Free/Reduced Lunch, Medicaid and TANF)Justice SystemFoster

Credits Earned Indicators:11. Total Credits Earned At-Risk

Assessment Indicators:12. Total PACT/Pass(Not Met 1 or 2)SST WebinarWith the Re-enrolled Dropout flag we can track students who dropout during a school year, but re-enroll in school the next year.

2122Early Warning Systems -- SCSLDS Webinar 1-27-12

SST WebinarThe ABCs of Drop-Out Prevention Attendance, Behavior, Credits Earned

Daily Absences- indicates the total number of days a student is absent is greater than 8No distinction is made between excused and unexcused absences

Discipline Events- indicate the total discipline events. These events includebut are not limited tothe followingCutting School/Truancy ( codes 150, 151, 152, and 153 in the Appendix )Arson, assaults, disturbing school, drugs, and other serious offences (codes 500-783 in the Appendix)Suspensions/Expulsions-indicate the total events that are coded with the standard SUS, SUPX (pending suspension), or EXP

Overage indicates that a student was or is two or more years over age for grade.PACT/PASS ELA or Math -indicates that a student scored Below Average or Not Met. (This is based on the most recent testing data in the warehouse.)English-indicates that the student scored 69 or below in English (grade 8, 9, 10, and/or 11). Math-indicates that the student scored 69 or below in Math (grade 8, 9, 10, and/or 11).

Credits earned--indicates the number of credits a student has accumulated at the end of each academic year between grades 9 and 11. This indicator is not flagged for seniors. Credit flag by grade 9th grade