the real deals (01-12-2011)

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  • 8/3/2019 The Real Deals (01-12-2011)

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    Kim Eng Research is a subsidiary of Malayan Banking Berhad

    SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

    THEREALDEALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstateSingapore

    Co. Reg No: 198700034EMICA (P) : 090/11/2009

    1 December 2011

    Mix and m atc h fo r added appea lSince the Confirmed List of the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme was reinstated last year, four

    mixed-use sites integrated with transport nodes have been sold. All received keen interest from developers

    with each tender attracting at least six bids. The latest in the lineup was a site at Bukit Panjang that has a

    maximum allowable GFA of more than 612,000 sq ft, of which at least 35% must be allocated for commercial

    use. Sim Lian Group submitted the top bid of $805 psf ppr, which was 11% above the second-highest offer

    from Keppel Land. Previous tenders for integrated sites at Bedok and Punggol saw top bids of $841 psf ppr

    and $753 psf ppr, respectively.

    Of the four sites (including the latest that has yet to be officially awarded), the first to launch is Bedok

    Residences by CapitaLand. The project offers 583 residential units, of which over 80% were sold in less than

    a week at an ASP of $1,350 psf. It is integrated with a retail mall of about 375,000 sq ft (roughly the size ofJunction 8 at Bishan), the Bedok bus interchange and the Bedok MRT station. Next to launch will be the site

    at Punggol called Watertown. We expect units there to fetch between $1,000 psf and $1,200 psf.

    In the following pages, we highlight two existing integrated projects the 536-unit Compass Heights at

    Sengkang and the 610-unit The Centris at Boon Lay and note that the gross rental yield exceeds 4% in

    both cases.

    Latest mixed-use site integrated with transport node at Bukit Panjang

    Source: URA

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    1 December 2011 Page 2 of 8

    THEREALDEALSIns&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

    Tender results for integrated sites

    Date Location

    GFA

    (sq ft)

    Tenderprice

    ($m)

    Tenderprice

    ($psf ppr) Developer ProjectSep 2010 New Upper Changi Road 938,165 788.9 840.9 CapitaLand Bedok ResidencesNov 2010 Peck Seah St / Choon Guan St 1,697,892 1,708.1 1,006.0 GuocoLand -Feb 2011 Punggol Central 1,356,232 1,021.0 752.8 Frasers Centrepoint WatertownNov 2011 Jelebu Road / Petir Road 612,084 492.9 805.3 Sim Lian -

    Source: URA

    Com pass Heig ht s (TOP 2002)

    Location of Compass Heights at Sengkang

    Source: onemap.sg

    Transaction prices for Compass Heights

    Source: URA

    Rental yield for Compass Heights

    QuarterMedian rental

    ($psf pm)Median price

    ($psf)Rental yield

    (%)Number of

    contracts signedNumber of

    transactions3Q11 $3.15 883 4.28 22 12

    Source: URA

    Resale prices for the nine-year-old project have tracked a healthy uptrend in recent years, doubling to nearly$883 psf in 3Q11 from $485 psf when the project was first launched in 2001. Even so, the units are still at a

    16% discount when compared to nearby The Luxurie, which was recently launched by Keppel Land at a

    median price of $1,050 psf. The median rental for Compass Heights was $3.15 psf pm in 3Q11, a yield of

    4.28%.

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    30-Nov-00 14-Apr-02 27-Aug-03 08-Jan-05 23-May-06 05-Oct-07 16-Feb-09 01-Jul-10 13-Nov-11

    CompassHeights

    TheLuxurie

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    1 December 2011 Page 3 of 8

    THEREALDEALSIns&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

    The Cent r is (TOP 2009)

    Location of The Centris at Boon Lay

    Source: onemap.sg

    Transaction prices for The Centris

    Source: URA

    Rental yield for The Centris

    QuarterMedian rental

    ($psf pm)Median price

    ($psf)Rental yield

    (%)Number of

    contracts signedNumber of

    transactions3Q2011 $3.66 1,046 4.20 42 12

    Source: URA

    Located right in the heart of Jurong, The Centrist consists of 12 blocks with a total of 610 units built above

    Jurong Point 2, the extension of Jurong Point Shopping Centre. The project was launched in 2006 at an ASP

    of $500 psf but recent transactions have been above the $1,000 psf mark. The median price and median

    rental in 3Q11 stood at $1,046 psf and $3.66 psf pm, respectively. Rental yield is also attractive at 4.2%.

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,2001,400

    02-Jul-06 28-May-07 22-Apr-08 18-Mar-09 11-Feb-10 07-Jan-11 03-Dec-11

    TheCentris

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    1 December 2011 Page 4 of 8

    THEREALDEALSIns&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

    MARKET SNAPSHOT 1 Decem ber 2011Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 [email protected]

    Upcom ing VVIP Launches

    The Hillier (District 23)A development nestled in Hilllview Avenue, a privateresidential enclave overlooking Bukit Timah Hill and theBukit Timah Nature Reserve. Features SOHO-conceptresidences sited above a retail podium.

    *Shhh... if you have not yet been invited, you are probably nota VVIP. Wait for the public launch.

    Recent t ransac t ions

    Project

    Size

    (sq m)

    Price

    ($psf)

    Contract

    dateThe Centris 85 1,202 Nov-11

    The Centris 196 810 Nov-11

    Compass Heights 222 606 Nov-11

    Compass Heights 115 774 Oct-11

    Compass Heights 144 787 Oct-11

    Compass Heights 123 971 Oct-11

    The Centris 104 1,090 Oct-11

    The Centris 121 1,060 Oct-11

    The Centris 89 1,180 Oct-11

    The Centris 168 823 Oct-11

    The Centris 99 1,107 Sep-11

    Compass Heights 103 936 Sep-11

    Compass Heights 99 880 Sep-11

    The Centris 162 853 Sep-11

    Compass Heights 116 823 Sep-11

    The Centris 162 773 Sep-11

    The Centris 114 1,091 Aug-11

    The Centris 99 1,145 Aug-11

    The Centris 99 1,127 Aug-11

    Compass Heights 124 903 Aug-11

    The Centris 117 953 Aug-11

    The Centris 126 1,010 Aug-11

    Compass Heights 99 891 Aug-11

    The Centris 148 816 Aug-11

    Compass Heights 99 891 Jul-11

    Compass Heights 120 840 Jul-11Source: URA

    Property Stoc ks

    Name Price RNAV

    Disc/Prem

    toRNAV NTA/share*

    Disc/Prem to

    NTA/shareCapitaLand 2.58 3.92 -34% 3.18 -19%CityDev 10.16 13 -22% 7.31 39%Ho Bee 1.19 2.69 -56% 2.22 -46%HPL 1.76 4.39 -60% 2.7 -35%

    KepLand 2.54 5.08 -50% 2.78 -9%SC Global 1.15 4.74 -76% 1.6 -28%SingLand 5.70 9.82 -42% 10.74 -47%UOL 4.21 N.A. N.A. 6.43 -35%Wheelock 1.59 N.A. N.A. 2.35 -32%Wing Tai 1.08 2.85 -62% 2.49 -57%

    N.A. = No Coverage *As at latest reported

    Property Pr ice Ind ic es Index Level ChangeSRPI Overall (Oct 11) 167.9 +0.9%RESI Composite (2Q11) 4.5 -0.5URA PPI (3Q11) 205.7 +1.3%HDB Resale (3Q11) 187.2 +3.8%

    Governmen t Land Sales (GLS)Recently Awarded Sites

    Jalan Loyang Besar / Pasir Ris Rise (36.3k sqm, 355units) Awarded to Hoi Hup, Sunway and Straits

    Construction for $141m ($361 psf ppr)Pasir Ris Drive 3 / Pasir Ris Link, EC (39.0k sqm, 390

    units) Awarded to Ho Lee / United Engineers for $122m($291 psf ppr)

    Flora Drive (41.9k sqm, 415 units) Awarded to KohBrothers for $163m ($361.2 psf ppr)

    Yishun Central 7 / Canberra Drive, EC (67.9k sqm, 725units) Awarded to MCC Land for $213.8m ($292.6 psfppr)

    Punggol Central / Edgedale Plains (60.8k sqm, 610units) Awarded to Qingjian for $218.9m ($334.6 psf ppr)

    Yishun Ave 1 / Miltonia Close (35.5k sqm, 355 units)Awarded to TG Dev for $138.9m ($363.6 psf ppr)

    Chestnut Ave (39.3k sqm, 380 units) Awarded to SPSetia for $180m ($425.8 psf ppr)

    Confirmed List (Recently Open for Tender)Alexandra Road (48.8k sqm, 545 units) Tender closing

    on 6 December 2011Chestnut Ave / Almond Ave (12.9k sqm, 35 landed

    units) Tender closing on 8 December 2011Punggol Central / Punggol Place (54.1k sqm, 540

    units) Tender closing on 15 December 2011Mount Vernon (72.8k sqm, 785 units) Tender closing

    on 10 January 2012Jalan Lempeng (68.4k sqm, 685 units) Tender closing

    on 12 January 2012Kovan Road / Simon Road (35.7k sqm, 360 units)

    Tender closing on 18 January 2012

    Reserve List (Recently Open for Tender)Jalan Jurong Kechil (14.2k sqm, 240 units)Buangkok Dr / Sengkang Central (55k sqm, 495 units)Tanah Merah Kechil Rd (39.2k sqm, 470 units)Stirling Road A (44.5k sqm, 445 units)Stirling Road B (44.1 sqm, 445 units)Elias Rd / Pasir Ris Dr 3 (32.7k sqm, 295 units)Hillview Ave (35.4k sqm, 405 units)Sengkang Square (64.4k sqm, 710 units)

    Upper Serangoon View/ Upper Serangoon Road, EC(43.3k sqm, 420 units)Source: HDB, URA

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    1 December 2011 Page 5 of 8

    THEREALDEALSIns&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

    MARKET SNAPSHOT (CONTD) 1 December 2011Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 [email protected]

    Primary Mark etTotal

    no.of

    units

    Unitssold

    to-date

    Take-up

    rate(%)

    Unitssold

    (Oct)Median

    ($psf)

    City & Southwest (1-8)

    Rangoon 88 48 35 72.9 35 1,461

    Reflections at KeppelBay 1,129 831 73.6 9 1,739

    Skyline Residences 283 186 65.7 9 2,010

    Orchard/ Tanglin/ Holland (9-10)

    D'Leedon 1715 451 26.3 10 1,577

    Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14)

    Regent Residences 180 128 71.1 128 1,321Rezi 26 106 90 84.9 90 1,161

    EuHabitat 748 612 81.8 61 1,207

    The Seawind 222 39 17.6 39 1,462

    Vacanza @ East 473 378 79.9 17 1,119

    Riviera 38 102 11 10.8 11 1,154

    Suites 28 74 35 47.3 10 1,096

    East Coast (15-16)

    Waterfront Isle 561 503 89.7 15 1,055

    Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18)

    ARC at Tampines 574 378 65.9 149 729

    Seastrand 473 333 70.4 41 952

    Waterview 696 572 82.2 9 892

    Serangoon / Thomson (19-20)

    Parc Vera 452 190 42.0 144 840A Treasure Trove 882 777 88.1 103 914

    The Minton 1,145 774 67.6 49 914

    BoathouseResidences 493 309 62.7 36 947

    Austville Residences 540 372 68.9 33 705

    Bliss@Kovan 140 56 40.0 26 1,383

    The Luxurie 622 236 37.9 26 1,059

    Riverparc Residences 504 500 99.2 20 665

    Thomson Grand 361 159 44.0 20 1,214

    Suites @ Paya Lebar 99 40 40.4 13 1,343

    Terrasse 414 318 76.8 11 890

    West (22-24)

    Blossom Residences 602 446 74.1 37 697

    The LakefrontResidences 629 619 98.4 11 1079

    North (25-28)

    Este Villa 121 121 100.0 121 614

    Luxus Hills 288 217 75.3 21 1,517

    Woodhaven 337 238 70.6 19 1,030

    The MiltoniaResidences 410 319 77.8 17 855

    The Canopy 406 385 94.8 11 676Source: URA

    Secondary Mark et

    District$psf

    Sep11$psf

    Oct11MoM %Change

    City & Southwest 1,439 1,432 -0.5

    Orchard/Tanglin/Holland 1,713 1,757 2.6

    Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi 1,225 1,179 -3.8

    Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang 989 1,040 5.1

    East Coast 1,054 1,031 -2.2

    Changi/Pasir Ris 786 782 -0.6

    Serangoon/Thomson 924 910 -1.6

    West 756 748 -1.1

    North 727 742 2.1Source: URA

    Renta l Mark et

    District$psf pmSept11

    Yield%

    $psf pmOct11

    Yield%

    City & Southwest 5.3 4.3 5.6 4.7

    Orchard/Tanglin/Holland 4.4 3.1 4.5 3.1

    Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.4

    Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang 3.1 3.8 3.1 3.8

    East Coast 3.1 3.6 3.2 3.7

    Changi/Pasir Ris 2.8 4.3 2.7 4.2

    Serangoon/Thomson 2.7 3.5 2.9 3.8

    West 2.9 4.6 3.0 4.7

    North 2.5 4.1 2.6 4.3

    Source: URA

    Top 5 Resale Transact ions by $psf

    Project Tenure District $psf

    Parkview Eclat Freehold 10 3,212

    Beaufort on Nassim Freehold 10 3,099

    Paterson Suites Freehold 9 3,047

    Nassim Mansion Freehold 10 2,931

    Grange Residences Freehold 10 2,775Source: URA

    Bott om 5 Resale Transact ions by $psf

    Project Tenure District $psf

    Carmi Mansion Freehold 14 457

    Phoenix Heights 99yr (fm 1969) 23 521

    Lakeside Apartments 99yr (fm 1977) 22 532

    Goodwill Court Freehold 15 541

    Tampines Court 101yr (fm 1985) 18 566Source: URA

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    THEREALDEALSIns&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

    DEVELOPERS LANDBANK 1 Decem ber 2011Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 [email protected]

    Developer District Landbank Tenure UnsoldUnits

    CityDev

    06 SouthBeach(BeachRoad) 99yr 11909 Futura(LeonieRoad) Freehold 12210 BoulevardHotel(CuscadenRoad) Freehold 20310 LuckyTower(GrangeRoad) Freehold 17811 BuckleyClassique(BuckleyRoad) Freehold 2217 HedgesPark(FloraRoad) 99yr 18118 NVResidences(PasirRis) 99yr 3618 PasirRisGrove,parcel3+stateland(PasirRis) 99yr 75218 PasirRisDrive8,parcels4+5(PasirRis) 99yr 1,51718 Tampines/UppChangiRdNorth Freehold 60519 H2OResidences(SengkangWestAve) 99yr 15319 BartleyRoadGLS(BartleyRoad) 99yr 56023 ChoaChukangGLS(EC)(ChoaChuKangDrive) 99yr 49023 SegarRoadGLS(EC)(SegarRoad) 99yr 237

    Sentosa ResidencesatW(SentosaCove) 99yr 207TotalUnsoldUnits 5,381

    KepLand 01 MarinaBaySuites(MarinaBay) 99yr 7702 Keppel&GETowerssite(TanjongPagar) Freehold 62004 ReflectionsatKeppelBay(KeppelBay) 99yr 31304 KeppelBayPlot3(KeppelBay) 99yr 30704 KeppelBayPlot4(KeppelBay) 99yr 23404 KeppelBayPlot5(KeppelBay) 99yr 9419 SengkangGLSsite(SengkangSquare) 99yr 47122 TheLakesideResidences(LakesideDrive) 99yr 24

    TotalUnsoldUnits 2,140

    CapitaLand

    03 TheInterlace(GillmanHeights) 99yr 35109 UrbanResort(CairnhillRd) Freehold 4010 Dleedon(FarrerRd) 99yr 1,28010 TheNassim(NassimRd) Freehold 5515 MarinePoint(MarineParade) Freehold 15016 BedokTownCentreSite(BedokCentral) 99yr 46920 BishanGLSsite(BishanStreet14) 99yr 65026 YioChuKangsite(YioChuKangRd) Freehold 140

    TotalUnsoldUnits 3,135HoBee Sentosa SeascapeatSentosaCove(SentosaCove) 99yr 112

    Sentosa PinnacleatSentosaCove(SentosaCove) 99yr 357TotalUnsoldUnits 469

    UOL 02 SpottiswoodeResidences(SpottiswoodePark) Freehold 3516 BedokReservoir(BedokReservoirRd) 99yr 640

    TotalUnsoldUnits 675Allgreen 02 Skysuites@Anson(EnggorStreet) 99yr 194

    05 ProjectatWestCoastRd(WestCoastRoad) Freehold 8009 RVResidences(RiverValley) 999yr 24812 RiverBay(MarThomaRd) 999yr 14712 Riviera38(MarThomaRd) 999yr 10221 TheCascadia(BukitTimahRoad) Freehold 25

    TotalUnsoldUnits 796Wheelock 09 ScottsSquare(ScottsRoad) Freehold 91

    10 Ardmore3(ArdmorePark) Freehold 84TotalUnsoldUnits 175

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    THEREALDEALSIns&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

    DEVELOPERS LANDBANK (CONTD) 1 Decem ber 2011Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 [email protected]

    Developer District Landbank Tenure UnsoldUnitsGuocoland 02 TanjongPagarGLSwhitesite(PeckSeah/ChoonGuan) 99yr 50010 LeedonResidence(LeedonHeights) 99yr 424

    26 TheWaterline(YioChuKangRd) Freehold 40TotalUnsoldUnits 964

    BtSembawang 09 TheVermontonCairnhill(CairnhillRd) Freehold 6609 PatersonSuites(PatersonRd) Freehold 2409 StThomasWalk(StThomasWalk) Freehold 221

    TotalUnsoldUnits 311

    FrasersCentrepoint

    09 StarHubCentre 99yr 24015 FlamingoValley(SiglapRd) Freehold 22016 WaterfrontGold(BedokReservoirRd) 99yr 416 WaterfrontIsle(BedokReservoirRd) 99yr 8118 Seastrand(PasirRisDrive3) 99yr 21518 PasirRisGLSsite(FloraDrive) 99yr 38019 BoathouseResidences(UpperSerangoonRoad) 99yr 29119 EsparinaResidences(Sengkang) 99yr 119 PunggolGLSmixedsite(PunggolCentral) 99yr 68527 EightCourtyards(YishunAve2) 99yr 141

    TotalUnsoldUnits 2,258

    WingTai

    03 AscentiaSky(Redhill) 99yr 4709 HELIOSResidence(CairnhillCircle) Freehold 6409 BelleVueResidences(OxleyWalk) Freehold 3810

    Le

    Nouvel

    Ardmore

    (Ardmore

    Park)

    Freehold

    42

    10 Anderson18(ArdmorePark) Freehold 15711 L'VIV(NewtonRd) Freehold 4023 ForesqueResidences(PetirRoad) 99yr 299

    TotalUnsoldUnits 687

    MCLLand10 NOBHill(EweBoonRd) Freehold 7015 CasaNassau(EastCoastRd) Freehold 6517 PasirRisGLSsite(JalanLoyangBesar) 99yr 58019 Terrasse(HougangAve2) 99yr 122

    TotalUnsoldUnits 837

    SCGlobal9 TheMarq(PatersonHill) Freehold 379 Hilltops(CairnhillCircle) Freehold 2089 MartinNo.38(MartinRd) Freehold 2310 TheArdmore(ArdmoreRoad) Freehold 50

    Sentosa SevenPalms(SentosaCove) 99yr 31TotalUnsoldUnits 349GrandTotal 18,177

    Source:HDB,URA

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    1 December 2011 Page 8 of 8

    THEREALDEALSIns&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

    APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS

    This report, and any electronic access to it, is restricted to and intended only for clients of Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. ("KER") or a related entity to KER (as thecase may be) who are institutional investors (for the purposes of both the Singapore Securities and Futures Act (SFA) and the Singapore Financial Advisers Act(FAA)) and who are allowed access thereto (each an "Authorised Person") and is subject to the terms and disclaimers below.

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