the rechargeable battery market and main trends 2011-2020 rechargeable battery market and main...

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2025 AVICENNE ENERGY Mike Sanders

Novi, Michigan, USA September 2017

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2016 • The Li-ion battery value chain • xEV & ESS battery market • Forecasts & conclusions

https://advancedautobat.com/conferences/automotive-battery-conference-Europe-2016/index.html

https://advancedautobat.com/conferences/automotive-battery-conference-Europe-2016/index.html


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The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends

2016 – 2026


THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC

0

1000

2000

3000

2000 2016

Mill

ion

Uni

ts /

yea

r

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ionNiMH

165 M Portable

PCs

195 M Tablets

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2016

Mill

ion

Uni

ts/Y

ear

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

2,6

0,15

0

1

2

3

2000 2016

$/W

h

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

7 000

211 000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2000 2016

Tons

Tons of cathode active materials

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 2

Présentateur

Commentaires de présentation

1460 Smartphones


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2016 – 2026


THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2016

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments


CAGR Li-ion 2010-2016: +25%


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2016 – 2026


0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2016

MW

h

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2016 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)



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2016 – 2026



01020304050607080

1990

2000

2005

2010

2013

2014

2015

2016

Billi

on U

S $


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

69 BILLION US$ in 2016 – Pack level1

8% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2006-2016)

01020304050607080

1990

2000

2005

2010

2013

2014

2015

2016

Billi

on U

S$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

E-BIKES

POWER TOOLS

PORTABLE

SLI

SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc… PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests,

Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

INDUSTRIAL • MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others • STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others

(Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,

AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators



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2016 – 2026


LI-ION IN 2016 - MAIN APPLICATIONS

6

(1) Cell level Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes… Source: AVICENNE Energy 2017

90 000 MWh - 23 B$ (1) 5 675 M small cells

CAGR 2006/2016 +23 % per year in Volume

- 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000

100 000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2016

Others

Industrial,ESS

Auto, E-busChina

Auto, e-busExcl. China

Electronicdevices

Phones 17%

Portable PC 66%

Portable Electronics

17%

2000: < 2GWh

2016: 90 GWh

Electronic devices

35%

Auto, E-bus Excl. China

17% Auto, E-bus

China 33%

Industrial, ESS 5% Others

10%


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2016 – 2026


LI-ION BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN 2016 WORLDWIDE The worldwide Li-ion battery market Company market share in 2016 in volume (small cells only) 6,4 B cells

7

Others for Small cells: Chinese suppliers like Tenpower, DLG… (1) LIB battery pack market

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2017

The worldwide Li-ion battery market Company market share in 2016 in value(1) Estimated at B$ 31 in 2016

24%

7%

8%

19%

9%

5%

9%

3% 9% 8%

9%

10%

5% 4%

4%

BAK AESC 2%

First New Energy

3%

YUASA 1%

BYD 7%

COSLIGHT 1%

Microvast 2%

CALB 2%

A123 Wanxiang 1%

Optimum 2%

Zhuoneng 2%

OTHERS 31%

Others


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2016 – 2026


LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 70% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT

8 Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%Pr

oduc

tion

cost

LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 40 Ah EV pouch cell NMC

Operating profit

Proces Yield

Depreciation

SGA, overhead

R&D

Utility

Labor

Material

Cathode cost 22%

Anode cost 6%

Electrolyte 6%

Separator 7% Other

materials 11%

Depreciation 14%

Direct labor 4%

Energy, utilities

4%

R&D 6%

Sales & Adm 3%

Overheads 3%

Warranty 3%

Margin 7%

Cell Process Yield, Scraps

4%

Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 2016

Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017


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2016 – 2026


LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND

9

CATHODE 211 OOO T in 2016 Revenues: 4,75 B$ CAGR 06/16: +14%

ANODE 104 000 T Revenues: 1,16 B$ CAGR 06/16: +13%

ELECTROLYTE 103 000 T Revenues: 1,4 B$ CAGR 06/16 : 19%

SEPARATOR 1 500 M m² Revenues: 1,6 B$ CAGR 06/16 : 15%

CELL MANUFACTURERS

Revenues: 22,5 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

ANCILLARY Revenues: 1,5 B$

PACK MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

31 B$

Gross margin: <10%

Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016

Présentateur

Commentaires de présentation

Gross margin: Cathode: 20 to 25% Anode: 30 to 35% Electrolyte: 35% Separators: > 40%


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2016 – 2026


2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES 2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C)

10

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ells

/yea

r

Li-P Li-ion PrLi-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1)

(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

CAGR 16-25: + 6%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

MW

h

Other PortableElectronics

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones


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2016 – 2026


X-EV MARKET Why x-EV ? Definition & segmentation X-EV worldwide in 2016

By country By car makers By battery chemistry

X-EV forecasts AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts Battery chemistry forecasts Battery cost forecasts

X-EV battery forecasts 11

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

2016 2020 2025

MW

h fo

r Aut

o &

E-b

uses

E-buses

PHEV & EV inChina

EV

PHEV

HEV

CAGR 2016-2025:+ 17%

45 GWh

110 GWh

185 GWh


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2016 – 2026


HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2016 1,8 M HEV HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, 2000 - 2016

Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, 2000-2016

12 Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

TOYOTA OTHERS

USA

JAPON

EUROPE 0%

10%

20%

30%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016Pe

netr

atio

n of

HEV

Growth 2015-2016: +2% From 1,8 M to 1,84 M HEV

Gazoline price impact on HEV market in the US

0

1

2

3

4

0

200000

400000

600000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Gaso

line

$ /

Gallo

n

HEV

sale

s per

yea

r


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2016 – 2026


PHEV SOLD WORLDWIDE

World excl. China growth +14% Chinese Growth + 21%

China is leading the P-HEV market thanks to high incentives

13 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2017

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

P-HE

V (u

nits

) OTHERS CHINASAICBYDOTHERSAUDIPORSCHEHYUNDAIVOLVODAIMLERBMWHONDAMITSUBISHIVWFORDTOYOTAGM

+16%

US 24%

JAPAN 2%

EUROPE 38%

CHINA 30%

Others 6%

USA

Japan

Europe

China

Others -

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

P-HE

V (u

nits

)


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2016 – 2026


EV SOLD WORLDWIDE

World excl. China growth +14% Chinese Growth + 68%

China is leading the EV market thanks to high incentives

14 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2017

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

EV (u

nits

)

Other ChinaGACDongFeng NissanChanaJMCCHERYJACGeelyBAICZhidouZotyeKandiBYDOthersBOLLOREPSAHondaMITSUBISHIDAIMLERFIATGMFordKIAVWSMARTBMWToyotaRenaultNISSAN

+35%

US 16%

JAPAN 4%

EUROPE 21% CHINA

55%

Others 4%

USA

Japan

Europe

China

Others

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EV (u

nits

)


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2016 – 2026


XEV BUSES MARKET IN CHINA

24000 16000

88000 116000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EV Bus

PHEV Bus

xEV buses market in China: 132 000 xEV Buses sold in 2016

Rationales

15

The Chinese government is working on addressing environmental issues. Central and local governments are engaged in subsidy policies to promote EV/PHV/FCV as new energy vehicles. The amount of subsidy for EV/FCV with low environmental impact is set high. As the subsidy policy is announced to be carried out until 2020, it is predicted that this market will be on an expansion trend centering on EV. However, due to the occurrence of the case of receiving subsidies illegally in 2015, the government has begun to strictly control the production of new energy vehicles after 2016.


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2016 – 2026


XEV BUSES MARKET IN CHINA xEV buses market in China: 112 000 xEV Buses sold in 2015

132 000 xEV Buses sold in 2016

16

YUTONG 18%

KINGLONG 21%

ZHONGTONG 12%

BYD 5% DONGFENG

5%

GOLDEN DRAGON

4%

FOTON 3%

ANKAI 1%

ASIASTAR 1%

OTHERS 33%

The new energy bus market in China is mainly made up of EV with a large amount of subsidy from the government, and there are many cases where older makers also produce PHV. As a result of the illegal receipt of subsidy occurred in 2015, publication of the company name and administrative guidance (penalty) from the government were carried out. Consequently, several makers including King Long have significantly reduced their market share in 2016, and old makers such as Yutong and Zhong Tong are expanding their market shares.

YUTONG 15%

KINGLONG 6%

ZHONGTONG 12%

BYD 3%

DONGFENG 1%

GOLDEN DRAGON

2% FOTON

3%

ANKAI 4%

ASIASTAR 1%

OTHERS 53%


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2016 – 2026


LITHIUM ION CELL PRODUCTION

17

China – 53% USA – 2%

EU -<1%

Japan – 20%

Korea – 17%

Panasonic Sony NEC Maxell PEVE YUASA

SAFT FIAMM

BOLLORE

SAMSUNG LG SK Kokam

BYD GP

Lishen COSLIGHT

ATL BAK B&K

Wanxiang (A123)

LG Johnson-Controls

Enersys SAFT

SAMSUNG LG

Others* – 7%

Source: AVICENNE 2017 * OTHERS: Malaysia mostly (1) Government subsidies only

Korean companies start to move in Malaysia New production capacity in Europe and US

$ 562 M 3-5 GWh 2018

$ 5 Bn 35 GWh 2017

$ 562 M 3-5 GWh 2018

$ 600 M 1 GWh 2019

$ 1 700 M (1) 25 GWh 2025

$ 360 M 2-3 GWh 2018


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2016 – 2026


THE LITHIUM ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

18

3 major limiters on batteries, for the development of electric vehicle 1- SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON CRITERIA

2- TIME TO MARKET • The research and development in this industry is very long

and time consuming. • Time to market to commercialize a new material is long.

Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.

• LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago) • Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (20 years ago). • So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new

material in the battery industry.

3- BATTERY COST

2016 2020 2025 (1) Active material only

Average Cell price

Average Pack price

0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2016 2020 2025

$ /

kWh

MarginWarrantyOverheadsSales & AdmR&DEnergy, utilitiesDirect laborDepreciationScrapsOthersSeparatorElectrolyteAnode (1)Cathode (1)

0

100

200

300

400

Cell Pack Cell Pack CellPack

$ /

kWh

Pack CostCell ManufacturingOther MaterialsSeparatorElectrolyteAnodeCathode

2


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2016 – 2026


0,08 0,1

0,2

0,3

0,5

0,8

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

2010 2015 2020 2025M

illio

n ca

rs

HEV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS

19 HEV: 1kWh battery / car

HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured

0,18

0,8

1,2

0,02

0,24

0,45

0,8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

2010 2015 2020 2025

kWh

/ EV

Mill

ion

cars

EV manufactured

1,1

2,1

3,0

3,9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

2010 2015 2020 2025

% L

i-ion

HEV

Mill

ion

cars

0,35

0,65

1,05

PHEV: 12 kWh battery / car

0,45

1,25

2

China

World Excl. China World Excl.

China

China

World Excl. China


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2016 – 2026


TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND 2025 FORECASTS Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR 2016-2025: +17%

Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M$) CAGR 2016-2025: +12%

20

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEVEV EV & PHEV China E-bus China

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2010 2015 2020 2025

M $

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV

EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China


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2016 – 2026


X-EV BATTERY MARKET 2000 – 2025 IN M$

21

Pack Level CAGR 2015-2025: +11%

Cell Level CAGR 2016-2025: +12%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2010 2015 2020 2025

M $



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2010 2015 2020 2025

M $




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2016 – 2026



22 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017

Lead Acid Batteries 2016 +367 GWh for > US $ 33,4 Billion

79%

16%

SLI

Industry, ESS

E-bikes

Others

26% 22%

8%

44%

Telecom

UPS

OtherStationary, ESSMotive

Industrial Batteries – Lead acid batteries 58 GWh for US $ 10,4 Billion

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2016

GW

h


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

% In volume

% In volume

medical, marine, others…

In volume (MWh)


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2016 – 2026


THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 2016: US $ 69 BILLION

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000EV, E-Bus

Portable

SLI

Others

ESS

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

Lead Acid LIB Others

Others

ESS

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

US $ 23 Billion for “other”

applications



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2016 – 2026


TOTAL POTENTIAL MARKET (M$, PACK LEVEL1)

Application details US$ 22,8 Billion in 2016 (1)

24

E-Bikes 13% Power Tools

8%

Forklift 15%

Other Motive 1%

Telecom 14%

UPS 12%

ESS 13%

Others 24%

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included 2- Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering,…

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016

1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 6


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2016 – 2026


ESS SEGMENTATION

25

Services provided by Energy Storage System (ESS)

Regulation

Arbitrage Investment deferral

Grid independent power supply

• Reconcile momentary differences caused by fluctuations in generation and/ or loads – Frequency regulation – Voltage support – Load following/ ramping support – Power quality

Back-up and reserves

• Provide emergency power when utility power is not available – UPS (Uninterruptible power

supply) – Power continuity – Reserves to face lose of one

generator

Black start • Provide an active reserve of power

and energy to (re)start power generator

• Store energy when the price of electricity is low and releases it on the grid when prices are high

• Enable deferral of utility investments by using relatively small amounts of storage – Congestion relief – Avoid infrastructure investment

• Provide electricity power supply in an area not connected to the grid e.g. – Rural community – Based stations powered by Solar

energy

On grid services

Off grid services Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016


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2016 – 2026


ESS SEGMENTATION

26 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016


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2016 – 2026


ESS REQUIREMENTS

27

On structuring parameters: discharge time and average power, segments highlight different patterns

Source : AVICENNE Energy, 2016


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2016 – 2026


ENERGY STORAGE SOLUTIONS

28

Mapped on discharge time and power, technologies will appear suitable for certain segments only

Source: AVICENNE Energy, 2016


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2016 – 2026


ESS MARKET & FORECASTS

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2015 2025

MW

H

Generation and T&D segments (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)UPS (18)Power continuity, Telecom (17)ESS End Users (13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20)

From 36 GWh to 65 GWh in 2025 CAGR: +6%

ESS (1) excl Telecom & UPS CAGR: +13 to 15%

29 Source: AVICENNE Energy, 2016

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2015 2025 2025 Opt(1)

MW

H

Generation and T&D segments (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)

ESS End Users (13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20)

Li-ion 28%

Others 72%

Li-ion 52%

Others 48%

(1) If LIB cost is < 150$/kWh, the market could be much more important


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2016 – 2026


LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

30 Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes… Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016

From 90 GWh in 2016 to 300 GWh

CAGR 2016/2025 +15 % per year in Volume

2016: 90 GWh

2025: 300 GWh

Electronic devices

40%


13%

Auto, E-bus China 30%

Industrial, ESS 6% Others

11%

Electronic devices

18%


21%

Auto, E-bus China 43%

Industrial, ESS 7%

Others 11%

16%

22%

22%

17%

6%

CAGR 15/25 (Realistic)

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015

Others

Industrial, ESS

Auto, E-bus China

Auto, e-bus Excl.China

Electronic devices


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2016 – 2026


TAKEAWAYS

31 Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …

Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive & Industrial applications In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion for HEV P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 15 B$ market in 2016 - 28 B$ in 2020 & 38 B$ in 2025 with high numbers in China (2016: US$ 3,6 Billion for xEV and US$ 4,8 Billion for xE-Buses) EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 3% of the auto sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% in 2020/25 Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume, but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid from 2020. A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 10% in the next 15 years Lithium battery for other application (ESS, stationary, industrial…) will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 150 $/kWh

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE 2000-2025

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MW

h

Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%)NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (+0%)LIB for xEV (+13%) LIB for Others* (+12%)

25B$ 30B$

63 B$

94 B$

> 115 B$

210 GWh 325 GWh

628 GWh

847GWh

17

10

49

(CAGR 2016-2025)

38

(Pack level) 2,8

43B$

432 GWh

Battery Market 2015-2025 CAGR = +6% / Li-ion>+10%


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2016 – 2026


THANK YOU

Mike SANDERS Senior Advisor Avicenne Energy US Email: [email protected] Mobile: 302-540-9457

32

mailto:[email protected]


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2016 – 2026


33

1- E-BIKES LIB: FROM US$ 1,9 BILLION IN 2016 TO 6,5 IN 20251 - CAGR16-25: +15%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2010 2015 2020 2025

LIBLead Acid

Market 2016-2025 (US $, Million) – CAGR: 10% Main drivers E-bike in China: Banning of gasoline powered motorcycles in china boost e-bikes: “Necessary” In US, Europe and Japan, “Green image”, sport, leisure, transportation: “Environment & Health” LIB penetration in China from 6 to 14%

Main Limiters In Japan, US and Europe, E-bikes are already equipped by Li-ion In China the only parameter to choose a battery is the cost Chinese E-bike ASP: 320 $/kWh: very difficult to penetrate this market

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

Performances characteristic 1- Cycle life 2-Energy density 3- Low cost Average Capacity:300 Wh

Battery needs Most valuable improvements 1- Price decrease 2- Cycle life 3- Fast charge Form factor: from cylindrical to Laminate No standardization

LIB needs

0%

50%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025

LIB Penetration (% device)

China US, EU, Jap

Note: 1- Pack level – 2- A Johnson Matthey affiliate

0

5000

10000

2010 2015 2020 2025

LIB market (M$)

CHINA Others

Competitors BMZ (Germany) AXEON2 (UK) HITECH (Taiwan) Phylion (China)

Customers Bosch,

Panasonic Bion-X TranX-Z

+ > 500 e-bike mfg.

ASP1 : 2016: 480 $/Kwh 2025: 330 $/kWh

ASP : 2016: 77 $/kWh 2025: 70 $/kWh

2% 8%

86%

4%

LIB 2025 by Area US

Europe

China

Others

6% 16%

67%

11%

LIB 2016 by Area US

Europe

China

Others


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2016 – 2026


34

2- POWER TOOLS LIB: FROM US$ 1,4 BILLION IN 2016 TO 2,2 B IN 20251 – CAGR:+6%

0

1000

2000

3000

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Li-ion

NICd

Market 2015-2025 (US $, Million) – CAGR:+4% LIB Main drivers Higher voltage

NiCd substitution NiCd regulation Cordless power tools & gardening tools market increase (+4% per year) Higher energy density, less weight

LIB main Limiters LIB average sales price Reliability High rate discharge Fast charge Life time


Important characteristic: 1- Higher power & capacity 2-Fast recharge 2012 ASP NiCd: 350 $/kWh 2012 ASP LIB: 550 $/kWh Average Capacity: 60 Wh

Battery needs Most valuable improvements 1- Price decrease 2- Fast charge 3- High rate discharge Form factor: Cylindrical No standardization

LIB needs

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

LIB Penetration

Note: : 1- Pack level

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

LIB market (M$)

Customers Bosch B&D TTI

Makita Jingding Hilti …

ASP1 2012:560 $/Kwh 2020: 390 $/Kwh

ASP: 2012: 335 $/kWh 2020: 275 $/kWh

Battery 2013 by Area >75% of the power tools are made in China But, battery pack could be made on the end-user area (Ex: Bosch – Axeon Poland)

LIB 2020 by Area Power tools will be made in China Local demand in Europe, US, next to the end user to increase flexibility & Just in Time mfg.

Competitors Cell/Pack Mfg.: TOP3: Samsung, Panasonic, Sony (> 75%) Pack makers: AXEON (Bosch),


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2016 – 2026


35

3- MOTIVE INDUSTRIAL: FORKLIFTS2 LIB: FROM US$ 0,56 BILLION IN 2016 TO 2,4 IN 20251 - CAGR16-25: 18%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2010 2015 2020 2025

LIB

Lead Acid

Market 2016-2020 (US $, Million) – CAGR:7% Main drivers Where economies are healthy, they reflect strong motive power production Europe & US got high E-forklift ratio compare to Asia LIB higher life time (* 3 to 5) Multiple shift operation where battery change is required (time consuming)

Main Limiters Low penetration of E-forklift in Asia High LIB capital price (x 5 compare to lead acid) Safety concerns in two of the lift truck types, sit-down rider and high reach, the counterbalance for the lift truck is supplied mainly by a lead acid battery


important characteristic 1-high charge/discharge rates

and capacity 2-high life time, range,

Average Capacity: 22 kWh

Battery needs Most valuable improvements

1- Price 2- Convince customers on “total cost of ownership”

Form factor: large format prismatic – size standardization

LIB needs

0%

10%

20%

2010 2015 2020 2025

LIB Penetration

Note: : 1- Pack level 2- Including all kind of Material handling equipment

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

2010 2015 2020 2025

LIB market (M$)

Customers For lead acid, After market represent 60% of the market: lot of different customers (industrials) For LIB, OEM Forklift: TOYOTA, Kion , Jungheinrich, NACCO , Crown, Mitsubishi Caterpillar

32%

34%

16%

18%

LIB 2025 by Area

US

Europe

ASP 2016: 500 $/kWh 2025: 300 $/kWh

ASP 2016:120 $/kWh 2025: 100 $/kWh

Battery 2016 by Area Europe – largest producer of motive power batteries – has higher percentage of electric vs. gas trucks (75%) than in N. America (64%) – China: High % of Gas/propane trucks (> 80%)

Competitors Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys (35%), Exide (10%), East Penn (10%), Hoppecke (10%), Crown (10%) LIB systems: BMZ, Lithium Balance, …


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2016 – 2026


36

4- STATIONARY: TELECOM MARKET LIB: FROM US$ 0,4 BILLION IN 2016 TO 1,2 IN 20251 – CAGR16-25: 13%

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

2010 2015 2020 2025

LIB

Lead Acid

Market 2016-2025 (US $, Million) – CAGR: +2% Main drivers

LIB developed for new equipment Increased Bandwidth requirements Wireless Market driving growth Strong Network Growth in China, India, E. Europe & S. America 2G-> 3G -> 4G … need new equipment's LIB: Specially in Hot climate

main Limiters

Lead Acid Vs. Li-ion… Lead Acid capital cost 5 times cheaper Total cost of ownership could be compare with Lead acid

14%

28%

20%

14%

16% 8%

Battery 2016 by Area ChinaEuropeUSIndiaOthers


Most important performances characteristic

1- Hot T°C performances 2- Customized for the new Equipment network

Average Capacity: 5-10 kWh modules (100 Ah)


1- Capital costs 2- Safety Proof 3- Reliability

Customized battery developed for new equipment

LIB needs

0%

10%

20%

2010 2015 2020 2025

LIB Penetration

Note: : 1- Pack level

-

500

1 000

1 500

2010 2015 2020 2025

LIB market (M$)

Customers Not so many customers; big telecom carriers in each countries

16%

21%

19% 19%

20% 5%

Battery 2020 by Area ChinaEuropeUSIndiaOthersJapan

ASP 2016: 490 $/kWh 2025: 310 $/kWh

ASP 2016: 180 $/kWh 2025: 155 $/kWh

Competitors Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys (35%), Exide (10%), and local suppliers in each countries LIB systems: “large companies” : SAFT, others?


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2016 – 2026


37

5- STATIONARY: UPS MARKET LIB: FROM US$ 0,27 BILLION IN 2016 TO 0,9 IN 20251 – CAGR16-25: : 14%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2010 2015 2020 2025

LIB

Lead Acid

Market 2016-2025(US $, Million) – CAGR: +3% Main drivers

UPS Drivers: New Data Storage Centers Mobile Society

LIB drivers: Less volume, less place > Life time

LIB is more needed where data are sensitive Li-ion battery could also help to save electricity during peak time

main Limiters

Safety could be an important issue here


Most important performances characteristic

1- Back-up at high current 2- weight, volume 3- life time

Average Capacity: 3-5 kWh modules


1- Convince on Safety 2- Capital Cost 3- Reliability

Form factor: Cylindrical New development for new equipment

LIB needs

0%

5%

10%

15%

2010 2015 2020 2025

LIB Penetration

Note: UPS: Uninterruptible Power Supply APC: American Power Conversion

-

500

1 000

2010 2015 2020 2025

LIB market (M$)

Customers Few leaders/many products: Emerson/Liebert, Schneider/APC, Eaton Powerware, Gamatronic, Riello

ASP 2016:490 $/kWh 2025: 300 $/kWh

ASP 2016: 185 $/kWh 2025: 155 $/kWh

Competitors Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys (35%), Exide (10%), and local suppliers in each countries LIB systems: local companies providing > services

14%

28%

20%

14%

16% 8%

Battery 2016 by Area

ChinaEuropeUSIndiaOthersJapan

16%

21%

19%

19%

20%

5%

Battery 2020 by Area ChinaEuropeUSIndiaOthersJapan


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2016 – 2026


LEAD ACID BATTERY SUPPLIERS 2016

38

Lead Acid battery Market share : JCI is leading the SLI market (B$ 20,7)

JCI 4%

YUASA 11%

EXIDE 11%

EASTPENN 6%

C&D 8%

FIAMM 4%

ENERSYS 19%

OTHERS 37%

Lead Acid battery Market share : Enersys is leading the Industrial market (B$ 11,7)

Over the past 15th years, the global lead-acid battery industry has experienced significant consolidation and currently the main international players are EnerSys, Exide Technologies, Johnson Controls, Inc., and GS Yuasa Corporation (“GS Yuasa”).

JCI 36%

YUASA 9%

EXIDE 10%

EASTPENN 7%

Camel 3% FENGFAN

3% FIAMM

3%

OTHERS 29%

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017


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The rechargeable battery market 2016-2025

SEPTEMBER 2017

26th Edition

THE LEAD ACID BATTERY MARKET BY APPLICATION AND TECHNOLOGY IN 2016

39

75%

25%

Lead acid battery market in 2016: US $ 33 Billions

Flooded VRLA

79%

9%

7% 4% 1%

Lead acid battery market in 2016: 367 GWH

SLI Stationary Motive E-bikes Others

84%

16%

Lead acid battery market in 2016: 367 GWH

Flooded VRLA

61% 22%

10% 3% 4%

Lead acid battery market in 2016: US $ 33 Billions

SLI Stationary Motive E-bikes Others



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2016 – 2026


LEAD ACID MARKET FORECASTS BY APPLICATION

-

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

E-Bikes MotiveStationary (UPS, Telecom, ESS) Others

Lead acid battery demand (2010-2025) – MWh – CAGR16-25: +4%

Rationales

40

SLI: CAGR2016-25: +5% thanks to After market (80% of the market) Micro-hybrid growth In development countries

Motive (85% Forklift): CAGR2016-25: +5% Forklift market increase is small (+2%) But more and more electrical forklift (80% in Europe, 65% in the US and 35% in Asia) In development countries

UPS & Telecom: CAGR2016-25: +3% “Big data” Mobile communications Energy Storage systems growth

E-bike 100% of the market in China – Lead acid replaced by Li-ion (15% LIB e-bike sold in 2016 to 60% in 2025)

+5%

+3%

-5%

+5%



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2016 – 2026


LEAD ACID MARKET FORECASTS BY TECHNOLOGY Lead acid battery demand (2010-2025) – MWh – CAGR16-25: +4%

Rationales

41

Motive Battery technology

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50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

0

20000

40000

60000

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100000

120000

140000

EFB AGM Flooded batteries GEL

+9%

+21%

0%

50%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025

Flooded

AGM

+4%

Stationary Battery technology

0%

50%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025

Flooded

AGM

E-bikes: almost 100% AGM batteries Motorcycles: almost 100% GEL batteries


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