The Russia-China Partnership

PAST 20 YEARS – DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA-CHINA PARTNERSHIP

One of the most important legacies of the Gorbachev era 1989: Normalization of USSR-China relationship 1992: Upgrading the relationship in Beijing 1996: Concept of Strategic Partnership announced in

Shanghai 1999: first joint naval exercises 2001: Treaty for Good Neighborliness, Friendship and

Cooperation, signed in Moscow 1995-2007: Full settlement of the border issues Economic and military cooperation Same positions on most international issues, joint diplomatic

initiatives, growing coordination of foreign policies

Not an alliance (3 disappointing precedents: 1895, 1945, 1950)

But a new type of relationship between two major powers

What is new: Context: globalization and multipolarity Power trends

The 2 countries, adapting to the realities of the globalized post-Cold War world, are discovering more and more points of common interest and concern and acting together

A growing factor in Eurasian and global politics

What is the norm for the four-century old relations? Very few conflicts (if one compares this relationship with

others) Russia’s wars with Sweden, Germany, Poland, France,

Austria, Turkey, Iran With China: When Russia was expanding into Siberia: minor clashes

with Cossack settlers in the Primorskiy Krai, 17th century The Qing Empire was very strong at the time, it was not a

matter of Russian domination

Late 19th century: Russia dominant, takes advantage of Qing decay

Russia’s participation in the suppression of the Ihetuan (Boxer) Rebellion in 1900

The conflict over the China Eastern RR, 1928 The Damansky Island clash, 1969 Indirect conflicts in Afghanistan and Vietnam No large-scale military conflict between the two states Russia is the only country with which China has entered into

an alliance with – 3 times over the past century!

Parallel experiences: Major setback for both empires in the 1840s-1850s:

Britain as the main driver, the global hegemon at the time

Lost wars with Japan at the turn of the 20th century Revolutions and fall of the two empires (Russia,

1905-07, China, 1911, Russia, 1917) Civil wars Alliance in WWII Alliance in the most dangerous period of the Cold

War (on the same side in Korea and Vietnam) Imperial revival under Communist regimes

Ideological affinity 1917 was a major watershed Bolshevik anti-imperialism (incl. Russian) The science of revolution Systemic emulation (Soviet modernization model

for Mao, China’s market reforms for Gorbachev)

What led to the rift in the 1960s: Out of phase ideologically – Soviet abandonment

of Stalinism and attempts at rapprochement with the US – at a time when Maoism was just getting into its high gear and relations with the US were on the verge of war

“Soviet revisionism” Later, under Brezhnev’s more conservative

leadership – Full-fledged clash between the two foreign policies Soviet hegemony in the comm. movement,

influence in the 3d world

But then geopolitics played the decisive role - Nixon moved to support Beijing in its standoff with

Moscow Triangular balancing Relations began to normalize when ideological

change came to USSR with Gorbachev

Role of US From 1970s till 2000s, the US generally regarded China as

a geopolitical ally And it has built a massive economic relationship with China Collapse of USSR made geopolitical reliance on US almost

irrelevant for China Meanwhile, geopolitical cooperation with Russia developed Under Bush Jr., US has tended to regard China as a rising

threat And it put Russia under growing pressure through its

security policies Shared security concerns

So, if we are witnessing today a remarkable scope of cooperation with minimal differences, it should not be surprising, because cooperation is historically a more normal mode of Sino-Russian relations than the familiar China-Soviet split of the 1960s-1980s

What brings the two countries together – and what generates differences (not conflicts, not tensions, not even frictions) between them?

Power trends: Systemic crisis in Russia – successful reforms in

China Collapse of the Soviet Union – growth of China Compared to the past, an unprecedented interplay

Qing – Romanov USSR – ROC and PRC

Population, 2007: China – 1,322 mln.

Growth rate – 0.6% Russia – 141 mln.

Decline rate – 0.5% If current population trends continue, by 2050:

China will rise the level of 1.5 bln. Russia will fall to the level of 100 mln.

Population of border regions Russian Far East – 7.5 mln. China’s Heilunxian Province – 120 mln. Maritime Province: 2.3 mln. China: 70 mln.

China: GDP, PPP – $7 trln. GDP per capita - $5,300 Real growth rate – 11.4%

Russia: GDP, PPP - $2 trln. GDP per capita - $14,600 Real growth rate – 7.6%

Expenditures on R&D, 2003, % of GDP: China – 1.3% Russia – 0.3% Number of people employed in the R&D sector,

1995-2003: China: increase from 470,000 to 820,000 Russia: decline from 804,000 to 411,000 Now, China is offering investments in Russian R&D

------------------ Tatyana Chesnokova and Natalia Cherkesova, Rossia – Delete? 2030 god:

Global’naya skhvatka tsivilizatsiy. M., Yauza-EKSMO, 2007

Comprehensive national power, Chinese calculations:

United States 90.62 Britain 65.04 Russia 63.03 France 62.00 Germany 61.93 China 59.10 Japan 57.84 Canada 57.09 South Korea 53.20 India 50.43

Geopolitics Global level

Opposition to US hegemony and unilateral use of force

Support of multilateralism Economic cooperation with all Opposition to new arms races

Regional level Demarcation of the borders Stability in Asia Hostility to Islamism

Trade and investment Russia to China: Energy resources, raw materials,

arms, technology transfers China to Russia: Consumer goods Asymmetrical Quality of trade remains unsatisfactory Investment goal: $12 bln. by 2020 Trade remains a major link between US and China Russia’s interest in technological dvelopment –

China’s offers, money, joint ventures Symbiosis is possible

The volume of Sino-Russian trade is 2 percent of China's total foreign trade, or 1/10th the amount of China's trade with the United States, 1/9th of that with Japan, 1/8th of that with the European Union, and 1/6th of that with South Korea. Putin has sought to promote sales of Russian industrial goods, but China is not much interested in anything except commodities and arms. It does not take much looking in the Russian press, moreover, to find articles suggesting that imports of Chinese goods are threatening whole sectors of Russian industry, or that it is unwise to sell weapons to a large and dynamic country that poses a potential strategic and demographic threat to Siberia.

Ideology Market authoritarianism (left-wing in China, right-

wing in Russia) State-capitalist models Defence of sovereignty in the face of globalization Opposition to Western democracy promotion

Russia-China Economic links underdeveloped, political relations

excellent US-China

Developed economic links, political relations cool US-Russia

Minimal economic links, political relations deteriorating

This puts Russia at a disadvantage

Russian public opinion ..\Russia-China\Russian public attitudes, 2007.doc In a 2007 opinion poll, conducted among listeners

of the popular radio station “Echo of Moscow”, 74% endorsed the opinion that Russia must conclude an alliance with China to counterbalance the US. “Together, we’ll become bigger than the Americans”, wrote one listener.

“China is a great country from which we should learn a lot – qualities like resourcefulness, initiative, persistence, hard work. I don’t understand those who see China as an enemy. China is our closest neighbour and strategic partner. If your neighbour is richer and more successful than you, you shouldn’t undermine him – instead, you should try hard to improve your own performance. Likewise, we Russians should not envy China and foster an enemy image. We should strive to reach the same level of economic development and of national cohesion. Everyone would only benefit from that”

Gennady Lysak, Russian businessman, provincial MP in Primorskiy kray*

*Лед российско-китайских отношений тает, Konkurent.ru, 2006-01-16

Russia’s place in Chinese foreign policy Not the No.1 priority But a key partner It is important to keep Russia friendly, and to team

up with it China is using Russia But economic relations with the West are far more

important

China’s place in Russian foreign policy Neither is it priority No.1 Relations with the West more important Russia is using China

Russia’s growing rift with the West World public opinion on Russia

A balance of interests Each other’s strategic rear Gradually, the two sides are finding more and more

uses for their partnership

Academician V. Myasnikov: “The level of strategic partnership, one rung below that of a

full-fledged alliance, has a number of advantages. Unlike an alliance, the partnership does not make Russia responsible for any of China’s actions, nor does it involve major commitments which would limit Russia’s freedom of maneouvre. At the same time, it does increase mutual trust between the two countries. Finally, the partnership, acting through the various geopolitical “polygons”, stimulates other powers to try to develop their relations with both Russia and China up to the level of Russian-Chinese relations. This last point is currently more advantageous for China, but Russia also benefits from the fact that other powers are interested in preventing an even closer rapprochement between Russia and China.”

http://asiapacific.narod.ru/countries/china/o_rossiysko_kit_otnosheniah.htm

China, too, is wary of alliances, prefers more flexible forms of relations

Power trends Russia is behind, and falling farther back China feels confident, Russia uncertain China has the initiative, Russia reacts Russia won’t be able to compete with China Russia may be marginalized Especially if its relations with the West should deteriorate There is a logic in the idea of balancing out China But such balancing out is considered by China as a major

threat to be neutralized So, the balancing can only be done through multilateral

organizations

China is not afraid of Russia’s rise It welcomes it – while the West is concerned This draws Russia closer to China In Russia, rise of China generates some concerns Asymmetry of perceptions Still, cooperation deepens

Sources of problems 1.Competition for Central Asian oil and gas 2.Both sides’ interest in multipolarity, in balancing

each other out – may create distrust For instance, if Russia moves too close to the US Or, if China teams up with US to contain Russia

3.Trade issues: disappointment on both sides with quality

4.Russian concerns about Chinese takeover of the Russian Far East

But: it’s a network instead of a hierarchy

Bad scenarios 1. A China-Russia anti-Western alliance 2. A China-Russia war Neither is very likely The prospects for the partnership are good And the partnership poses no threat to others It is not a problem for Eurasia It is a solution

Amb. Denisov: “It is a good example of how two major states belonging to different sociopolitical and cultural-civilizational models

have managed to find mutually acceptable solutions to the immensely complex and delicate problems inherited from

history, in the first place, the border issue, and to work out a model of peaceful and goodneighborly coexistence.

Russian-Chinese relations have reached a qualitatively new level, that of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation.”

Amb. Denisov: “Russia and China are two great powers and Permanent

Members of the United Nations Security Council. In recent years the emergence at the global and regional levels of new acute international problems, challenges and threats has predetermined a multitude of new points of contact and spheres of real cooperation for Russia and China. A fruitful bilateral partnership in international affairs is based on the

similarity of national interests of Russia and China, on the identity of approaches of Moscow and Beijing to the key global problems - future world pattern, strategic stability, central role of the United Nations, in international affairs and so on. Given the attempts to use the globalization for gaining unilateral economic and geopolitical advantages, the upholding by Russia and China of the principles of multilateralism in international affairs, respect for sovereignty of states and the rights of peoples to an independent choice of their development road has a special importance.”