the sbnation fantasy 2013 fantasy draft...

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The SBNation Fantasy 2013 Fantasy Draft Guide

Jason Chilton, Editor

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Big Boards Overview …………….……………... Big Board – PPR Leagues ……………………… Big Board – Non-PPR Leagues ……………… Player Rankings Overview …………………… Player Rankings – Quarterbacks …………. Player Rankings – Running Backs ………. Player Rankings – Wide Receivers ………. Player Rankings – Tight Ends ……………… Player Rankings – Team Defenses ………. Player Rankings – Kickers …………………… The Last Word …………………………………….

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12 21 35 51 57 59 61

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FOREWORD Welcome to the 2013 SBNation Fantasy Guide! While others in your league wasted their hard-earned dollars on glossy mags that came out in mid-July and are still touting Percy Harvin as a #1 WR, you shrewdly waited for the best Guide in the business with up-to-the-moment data and evaluations…and you got it for free! Your season is off to a good start. You’ll notice that the rankings in this Guide don’t correspond exactly to the position rankings that you’ll find on the SBNation.com/Fantasy site. That’s for the simple reason that no two Fantasy minds are ever going to think exactly alike. For that matter, YOU shouldn’t base your entire draft strategy on a single person’s thoughts or cheat sheets, but use them as a starting point in forming your own opinions about player value. This guide aims to help you think about that value in a systematic way. The Big Boards up front present a ‘super cheat sheet’ approach that ranks players while also comparing players across different positions to help you decide who offers the most relative value when it’s your turn to pick. The Player Rankings explain WHY the each player earned the slot he did on the Big Board. They also aim to provide enough data, thought process and schedule analysis for you to fully understand each ranking and decide if you agree with where that player stands relative to his peers. Draft day shapes your team…but your work doesn’t end there. To bring home a title you’ll need to make smart decisions all season long on everything from start/sit choices to trades to waiver wire selections. And you’re in luck! SBNation.com/Fantasy will be your one-stop shop all season long for analysis, advice and live War Room chats to keep your team honed to a razor’s edge. We hope you enjoy this Guide – now study up and get ready pick some winners.

Happy Drafting,

Jason Chilton Editor @SBNationFantasy @KnowTheGame60

BIG BOARDS

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The Big Board is designed to help you make smart, quick decisions in every round of your Fantasy draft. It’s set up in the same way that many NFL teams construct their own boards on Draft Day – it assigns round grades to each player and puts positions side by side to help you understand not only which player to take at a certain position, but which players at other positions have equivalent values based on positional scarcity and how much each player is likely to score over and above the players that will be available later in the draft. The idea is that you’d only take a player from Round 3 on the Big Board if all the players from Round 2 are gone. As your draft progresses , if you take three running backs in your first three selections it may be wise to pick another position even if there’s a higher-rated back on the board. Likewise, if your league allows flexible lineups with, say, one back and three receivers, you may want to get one stud back and the load up on receivers since there are more high-scoring receivers than backs in PPR leagues. But on the whole, sticking to the Big Board should help you land a deep and talented squad while finding value in every round. As a note, both Big Boards (PPR and non-PPR) are designed with a twelve-team league in mind. Additionally, both assume a standard four points per TD pass for QBs. If your league awards six, move each QB up a round and work hard to get Rodgers, Brees or Manning – ESPECIALLY if it’s also a non-PPR league where QBs will dwarf everyone else in scoring.

Top Tier

#1 Starter

#2 Starter

#3/Flex

#4 - Depth

#5 - Fliers

Handcuffs

True difference-makers at their position. Grab all of these guys you can.

Guys who can carry the load as your #1 starter at a position.

Quality starters who are a cut below the #1 slot.

Not every-week starters, but good flex and spot-start options with upside.

Receivers best suited for depth and bye-week fill-in work.

Late-round guys with the upside to become more than waiver-wire fodder.

Players with a starter in front of them who may be more valuable if you own that starter.

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Big Board – 12 Team PPR Leagues

Doug Martin Calvin Johnson

Adrian Peterson Dez Bryant

C.J. Spiller Demaryius Thomas

Jamaal Charles

LeSean McCoy

Trent Richardson

Ray Rice

Matt Forte

Alfred Morris

Aaron Rodgers Marshawn Lynch A.J. Green Jimmy Graham

Arian Foster Brandon Marshall

Reggie Bush Julio Jones

Steven Jackson Andre Johnson

Chris D. Johnson

Maurice Jones-Drew

Peyton Manning Stevan Ridley Larry Fitzgerald

Darren Sproles Randall Cobb

Eddie Lacy Victor Cruz

DeMarco Murray Vincent Jackson

Lamar Miller Roddy White

Frank Gore

Drew Brees David Wilson Marques Colston Rob Gronkowski

Darren McFadden Dwayne Bowe Jason Witten

Giovanni Bernard Danny Amendola

Ahmad Bradshaw Pierre Garcon

Reggie Wayne

Cam Newton Montee Ball Hakeem Nicks Vernon Davis

Tom Brady Shane Vereen Jordy Nelson Tony Gonzalez

Robert Griffin III Le'Veon Bell Wes Welker

Antonio Brown

Andrew Luck Ryan Mathews Mike Wallace

Matthew Stafford Chris Ivory Torrey Smith

Colin Kaepernick Andre Brown Cecil Shorts

Tony Romo Daryl Richardson Eric Decker

Russell Wilson Mark Ingram DeSean Jackson Greg Olsen

Matt Ryan Ben Tate Josh Gordon Jermichael Finley

DeAngelo Williams Golden Tate

T.Y. Hilton

Mike A. Williams

James Jones

Steve L. Smith

Michael Vick Rashard Mendenhall Tavon Austin Kyle Rudolph

Bryce Brown Vincent Brown

Bernard Pierce Steve Johnson

Kenny Britt

Anquan Boldin

Miles Austin

Greg Jennings

ROUND 6

ROUND 7

ROUND 8

ROUND 1

ROUND 2

ROUND 3

ROUND 4

ROUND 5

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Eli Manning Danny Woodhead Michael Floyd Jordan Cameron SEA

Isaiah Pead Emmanuel Sanders Jared Cook

Knowshon Moreno Lance Moore

Ryan Broyles

Kenbrell Thompkins

Jay Cutler Isaiah Pead Kendall Wright Owen Daniels HOU

Christine Michael Alshon Jeffery Fred Davis CHI

Jacquizz Rodgers Ryan Broyles

Brian Hartline

Andy Dalton Vick Ballard DeAndre Hopkins Antonio Gates CIN

Matt Schaub Jonathan Stewart Rueben Randle STL

Isaac Redman Sidney Rice

Darius Heyward-Bey

Sam Bradford Shonn Greene Justin Blackmon Dwayne Allen GB

Michael Bush Cordarrelle Patterson Brandon Myers NE

Joseph Randle Aaron Dobson

Fred Jackson

Josh Freeman Roy Helu Mohamed Sanu Martellus Bennett CLE

Johnathan Franklin Malcom Floyd Tyler Eifert DEN

Bilal Powell Kenny Stills BAL

Ryan Tannehill Stepfan Taylor Robert Woods Julius Thomas ARI

Alex D. Smith Daniel Thomas Denarius Moore Brandon Pettigrew MIA

Carson Palmer Knile Davis

Ben Roethlisberger Brandon Jackson Markus Wheaton PIT

Toby Gerhart Jarrett Boykin CAR

LaMichael James Donnie Avery NYJ

Jeremy Kerley

Brice Butler

ROUND 12

ROUND 13

ROUND 14

ROUND 15

ROUND 16

KICKERS!!!!! KICKERS EVERYWHERE!!!!!

ROUND 9

ROUND 10

ROUND 11

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Big Board – 12 Team Non-PPR Leagues

Doug Martin Calvin Johnson

Adrian Peterson

C.J. Spiller

Trent Richardson

LeSean McCoy

Alfred Morris

Marshawn Lynch

Jamaal Charles

Arian Foster

Matt Forte

Stevan Ridley

Aaron Rodgers Chris D. Johnson Dez Bryant Jimmy Graham

Ray Rice Demaryius Thomas

Maurice Jones-Drew Julio Jones

Steven Jackson A.J. Green

Eddie Lacy Brandon Marshall

Peyton Manning Frank Gore Andre Johnson Rob Gronkowski

Drew Brees DeMarco Murray Vincent Jackson

Cam Newton Lamar Miller Larry Fitzgerald

Reggie Bush Randall Cobb

Victor Cruz

Tom Brady Ahmad Bradshaw Marques Colston Vernon Davis

Robert Griffin III Montee Ball Roddy White

Andrew Luck David Wilson Dwayne Bowe

Matthew Stafford Le'Veon Bell Pierre Garcon

Colin Kaepernick Giovanni Bernard Jordy Nelson Jason Witten

Tony Romo Darren McFadden Torrey Smith Tony Gonzalez

Chris Ivory Hakeem Nicks

Mark Ingram Mike Wallace

Russell Wilson Andre Brown Cecil Shorts

Matt Ryan Ryan Mathews Danny Amendola

Daryl Richardson Reggie Wayne

Ben Tate DeSean Jackson

Rashard Mendenhall Golden Tate

Josh Gordon

Darren Sproles Eric Decker Greg Olsen

DeAngelo Williams Antonio Brown

Shane Vereen Mike A. Williams

Bernard Pierce Wes Welker

James Jones

Michael Vick Bryce Brown T.Y. Hilton Jermichael Finley SEA

Knowshon Moreno Steve L. Smith Kyle Rudolph

Isaac Redman Tavon Austin

Kenny Britt

Miles Austin

ROUND 6

ROUND 7

ROUND 8

ROUND 1

ROUND 2

ROUND 3

ROUND 4

ROUND 5

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Eli Manning Jonathan Stewart Vincent Brown Jordan Cameron SF

Christine Michael Steve Johnson Jared Cook

Isaiah Pead Anquan Boldin

Greg Jennings

Michael Floyd

Jay Cutler Vick Ballard Lance Moore Owen Daniels HOU

Danny Woodhead Chris Givens CHI

Kenbrell Thompkins

Emmanuel Sanders

Alshon Jeffery

Ryan Broyles

Andy Dalton Shonn Greene Kendall Wright Fred Davis CIN

Matt Schaub Jacquizz Rodgers DeAndre Hopkins Antonio Gates STL

Brian Hartline

Rueben Randle

Sam Bradford Michael Bush Sidney Rice Brandon Myers GB

Fred Jackson Justin Blackmon Dwayne Allen NE

Joseph Randle Cordarrelle Patterson

Darius Heyward-Bey

Ryan Tannehill Roy Helu Aaron Dobson Martellus Bennett CLE

Johnathan Franklin Mohamed Sanu Tyler Eifert DEN

Bilal Powell Malcom Floyd Julius Thomas

Josh Freeman Stepfan Taylor Robert Woods Brandon Pettigrew BAL

Alex D. Smith Brandon Jackson Denarius Moore ARI

Daniel Thomas Markus Wheaton MIA

Carson Palmer Knile Davis Kenny Stills Jermaine Gresham PIT

Ben Roethlisberger Toby Gerhart Jarrett Boykin CAR

LaMichael James Donnie Avery NYJ

ROUND 12

ROUND 13

ROUND 14

ROUND 15

ROUND 16

KICKERS!!!!! KICKERS EVERYWHERE!!!!!

ROUND 9

ROUND 10

ROUND 11

PLAYER RANKINGS

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The Player Rankings section goes into detail on how we ranked every player. The Player Writeup explains our thought process and outlook on each guy’s prospects for the upcoming season. Additionally, each ranking includes a range of information to help you make decisions on who to target. These rankings are presented in the order we’d draft these players in a PPR league with six points for rushing/receiving TDs and a point for every 10 yards rushing/receiving. The non-PPR Big Board ranks players in the proper order for the same scoring system minus points for catches, but if your league has any other scoring quirks make sure to factor them in when finalizing your own rankings. On the next page, the various stats and figures presented in each ranking are broken down in detail.

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Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD 5

2011 502 4643 9.2 45 6 60 257 3 403 4

2012 553 4303 7.8 39 8 54 259 2 358 4

577 4772 8.3 39 10 50 250 2 374 13

SF WAS CIN BYE DET BAL CLE MIN CHI PHI NYG MIN DET ATL DAL PIT CHI

22.2 22.0 22.2 0.0 24.1 22.0 22.2 25.3 20.7 26.8 24.3 25.3 24.1 24.3 23.4 21.6 20.4


2011 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5

2012 583 4667 8.0 37 11 23 7 0 324 3

630 5156 8.2 37 13 17 9 0 342 13

BAL NYG OAK PHI DAL JAC IND WAS BYE SD KC NE KC TEN SD HOU OAK

19.1 21.3 25.3 23.7 20.5 23.9 21.5 19.1 0.0 21.5 19.5 19.7 19.5 22.7 21.5 17.3 24.5


2011 657 5476 8.3 46 14 21 86 1 404 4

2012 670 5177 7.7 43 19 15 5 1 367 3

640 5040 7.9 40 17 18 18 0 346 12

ATL TB ARI MIA CHI NE BYE BUF NYJ DAL SF ATL SEA CAR STL CAR TB

23.9 21.8 20.3 22.3 20.1 22.1 0.0 23.9 21.0 23.0 21.6 23.9 18.0 21.2 20.5 21.2 22.5


2011 517 4051 7.8 21 17 126 706 14 384 4

2012 485 3869 8.0 19 12 127 741 8 341 4

505 4085 8.1 23 15 102 534 8 342 12

SEA BUF NYG BYE ARI MIN STL TB ATL SF NE MIA TB NO NYJ NO ATL

17.6 21.5 21.5 0.0 19.1 22.3 19.3 20.2 21.5 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.2 22.6 19.6 22.6 21.5

Upside

2013 Projections: R/R Total

QB Player Risk

Broncos System Risk

Upside


Drew Brees Top

Tier

Passing Rushing Risk/Reward

QB Player Risk

Weekly

Scoring

The return of Sean Payton lends a decided "getting the band back together" feel to this Saints' season, and many expect their offense

to wreck the league like the Bluesmobile in a shopping mall. But the Saints are actually facing a fairly stout slate of pass defenses this

season, and there are reasons to be nervous on the offensive front. Brees' greatness will keep the Saints flying high, but he may not

outperform his peers to the degree that some are expecting.

Weekly

Scoring


Total

Points

Total

Points

Risk/Reward

QB Player Risk

Panthers System Risk

Weekly

Scoring

Top

Tier

Aaron Rodgers

QB

Packers

2013 Projections:


Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Manning silenced his doubters last season with a virtuoso performance. Reports have him GAINING arm strength this offseason, and

the addition of Wes Welker to the pass-catching corps gives Manning a borderline unfair set of weapons. Combine that with a

commitment to run more up-tempo and a hilariously soft schedule of opposing pass defenses and you've got a recipe to challenge for

the league's best fantasy QB.

Rodgers struggled in 2012 to deliver the kind of insane efficiency he's become known for, thanks in no small part to a wheels-off

offensive line and a gimpy WR corps. The line could still be shaky, but Rodgers' otherworldly talent and the Pack's plethora of

weapons keeps him in the top spot. Don't over-draft him, however - there's seldom been a deeper year at the QB position.

Peyton Manning Top

Tier

Despite struggles with consistency as a passer, Cam Newton's live arm and even live-er legs have made him a Top 5 scoring QB in

each of his first two seasons. Carolina made a move AWAY from the read-option in the latter part of last season, and Newton

responded with crisper passing and actually improved his running production to boot. It's not clear exactly what to expect from

Carolina this season, but it's become a very good bet that Newton will find a way to score in bunches.

Weekly

Scoring

Total

Points

Total

Points

Rushing

Saints System Risk

Upside


Cam Newton Top

Tier

Passing

Players are sorted into color-coded tiers in the rankings pages as well as on the Big Board.

Each player’s stats from the last two seasons are presented, as well as their projections for 2013.

Each player represents a unique combination of risk and reward. The Player component measures how likely a player’s talent and injury odds are to let him hit his projected stats. The System component measures the other factors in a player’s success – everything from quality OL to the talent of a receiver’s QB to competition for snaps. Finally, Upside measures the likelihood that a player will exceed his ‘base case’ statistical projection. In each category, the higher the number the better.

Each player’s scoring total for each week of the season is projected based on the quality of the opponents they’ll be facing. QBs are measured against an opponent’s overall projected pass defense rating. Running back stats are calculated based on run defense quality (for ground stats) and the coverage ability of a defense’s linebacker corps (for passing stats). Receivers are measured against a combination of overall pass defense and the quality of the corner(s) they are most likely to face, while Tight Ends are measured against overall pass defense quality as well as linebacker and safety coverage ratings.

PLAYER RANKINGS - KEY

QUARTERBACKS

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2011 502 4643 9.2 45 6 60 257 3 403 4

2012 553 4303 7.8 39 8 54 259 2 358 4

577 4772 8.3 39 10 50 250 2 374 13


22.2 22.0 22.2 0.0 24.1 22.0 22.2 25.3 20.7 26.8 24.3 25.3 24.1 24.3 23.4 21.6 20.4


2011 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5

2012 583 4667 8.0 37 11 23 7 0 324 3

630 5156 8.2 37 13 17 9 0 342 13


19.1 21.3 25.3 23.7 20.5 23.9 21.5 19.1 0.0 21.5 19.5 19.7 19.5 22.7 21.5 17.3 24.5


2011 657 5476 8.3 46 14 21 86 1 404 4

2012 670 5177 7.7 43 19 15 5 1 367 3

640 5040 7.9 40 17 18 18 0 346 12


23.9 21.8 20.3 22.3 20.1 22.1 0.0 23.9 21.0 23.0 21.6 23.9 18.0 21.2 20.5 21.2 22.5


2011 517 4051 7.8 21 17 126 706 14 384 4

2012 485 3869 8.0 19 12 127 741 8 341 4

505 4085 8.1 23 15 102 534 8 342 12


17.6 21.5 21.5 0.0 19.1 22.3 19.3 20.2 21.5 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.2 22.6 19.6 22.6 21.5

Upside


QB Player Risk

Broncos System Risk

Upside


Drew Brees Top

Tier


QB Player Risk

Weekly

Scoring

The return of Sean Payton lends a decided "getting the band back together" feel to this Saints' season, and many expect their offense

to wreck the league like the Bluesmobile in a shopping mall. But the Saints are actually facing a fairly stout slate of pass defenses this

season, and there are reasons to be nervous on the offensive front. Brees' greatness will keep the Saints flying high, but he may not

outperform his peers to the degree that some are expecting.

Weekly

Scoring


Total

Points

Total

Points

Risk/Reward

QB Player Risk


Weekly

Scoring

Top

Tier

Aaron Rodgers

QB

Packers

2013 Projections:


Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Manning silenced his doubters last season with a virtuoso performance. Reports have him GAINING arm strength this offseason, and

the addition of Wes Welker to the pass-catching corps gives Manning a borderline unfair set of weapons. Combine that with a

commitment to run more up-tempo and a hilariously soft schedule of opposing pass defenses and you've got a recipe to challenge for

the league's best fantasy QB.

Rodgers struggled in 2012 to deliver the kind of insane efficiency he's become known for, thanks in no small part to a wheels-off

offensive line and a gimpy WR corps. The line could still be shaky, but Rodgers' otherworldly talent and the Pack's plethora of

weapons keeps him in the top spot. Don't over-draft him, however - there's seldom been a deeper year at the QB position.

Peyton Manning Top

Tier

Despite struggles with consistency as a passer, Cam Newton's live arm and even live-er legs have made him a Top 5 scoring QB in

each of his first two seasons. Carolina made a move AWAY from the read-option in the latter part of last season, and Newton

responded with crisper passing and actually improved his running production to boot. It's not clear exactly what to expect from

Carolina this season, but it's become a very good bet that Newton will find a way to score in bunches.

Weekly

Scoring

Total

Points

Total

Points

Rushing

Saints System Risk

Upside


Cam Newton Top

Tier

Passing

13

Tom Brady

QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD 5

Patriots 2011 611 5239 8.6 39 12 43 109 3 382 3

2012 638 4827 7.6 34 8 23 32 4 348 4

606 4679 7.7 34 12 25 38 1 321 12

BUF NYJ TB ATL CIN NO NYJ MIA PIT BYE CAR DEN HOU CLE MIA BAL BUF

21.7 19.1 19.9 21.7 19.7 23.1 19.1 20.3 19.1 0.0 19.3 19.3 17.7 19.7 20.3 19.5 22.2

Robert Griffin

IIIQB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD 3

Redskins 2011 0 4

2012 394 3211 8.1 20 5 118 833 7 329 4

472 3932 8.3 28 11 87 481 5 336 11

PHI GB DET OAK BYE DAL CHI DEN SD MIN PHI SF NYG KC ATL DAL NYG

23.1 18.4 21.1 24.3 0.0 20.6 18.6 19.3 21.4 22.0 23.1 19.7 21.2 19.8 21.2 20.6 20.5

Andrew Luck


Colts 2011 0 3

2012 627 4374 7.0 23 18 62 255 5 304 3

2013 Projections: 595 4588 7.7 29 16 53 223 3 324 10

OAK MIA SF JAC SEA SD DEN BYE HOU STL TEN ARI TEN CIN HOU KC JAC

24.7 19.9 19.4 23.5 16.6 21.4 19.1 0.0 17.7 18.5 22.4 18.4 22.4 19.4 17.7 19.6 23.1

Colin

Kaepernick


49ers 2011 5 35 7.0 0 0 2 -2 0 1 5

2012 218 1809 8.3 10 3 63 417 5 181 3

2013 Projections: 448 3532 7.9 24 13 96 511 7 317 13

GB SEA IND STL HOU ARI TEN JAC BYE CAR NO WAS STL SEA TB ATL ARI

18.7 17.5 21.4 19.1 18.4 19.0 22.3 23.1 0.0 19.5 22.3 19.7 19.1 17.5 20.0 21.3 19.5

2013 Projections:

2013 Projections:

Rushing Total

Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

#1 QBPassing Rushing Total

Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Offseason jitters about the Pats' almost entirely-rebuilt air attack are subsiding by the day. Brady has a target lock on new acquisition

Danny Amendola, Gronkowski may avoid the PUP list, while new targets like Kenbrell Thompkins and Shane Vereen will help pick up the

slack. While Brady won't reach the heights of his last couple of seasons, he's still a great option as your QB1.

Weekly Scoring

#1 QBPassing

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

RGIII was a revelation last season, and only injury could stop him. His recovery and how the Redskins will handle him upon his return is

one of Fantasy's biggest storylines - we think he'll be just fine. There are things we aren't privy to on the state of the art injury recovery

these days, but the cross-sports evidence is overwhelming that injuries don't mean what they used to. Griffin will run less, throw more,

take advantage of full seasons from Pierre Garcon and Fred Davis, and exploit an easy schedule to be among the position's best.

Weekly Scoring


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

#1 QB Passing Rushing Total

Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R TotalOnce Kaepernick took the reins in mid-season, he started laying a beatdown on the league that rivaled what RGIII was up to in

Washington. How defenses adapt to the read option is the BIGGEST story in Fantasy this year - and we think the read option will be just

fine. It's not a Wildcat gimmick, but a fully integrated offensive approach. Kaepernick won't be running wild like he did in last year's

playoffs, but he can get 500 yards on the ground by accident while his phenomenal arm strength and accuracy do the rest. Don't bet

against him.

Weekly Scoring

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Many pundits look askance at Luck's so-so efficiency as a rookie and project something of a sophomore slump - don't believe it. Luck

was in a deep-ball offense with young weapons everywhere and a laughable OL - that's not a recipe for Tom Brady-style pitch and catch.

Luck's line will be vastly improved, his weapons are upgraded through experience and the addition of stud receiving back Ahmad

Bradshaw. Look for him to take the next step into the league's elite this season.

Weekly Scoring

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

14

Matthew

Stafford


Lions 2011 663 5038 7.6 41 16 22 78 0 357 3

2012 727 4965 6.8 20 17 35 128 4 298 3

2013 Projections: 704 5083 7.4 31 20 35 105 2 330 10

MIN ARI WAS CHI GB CLE CIN DAL BYE CHI PIT TB GB PHI BAL NYG MIN

23.0 18.9 19.9 18.7 18.5 20.1 20.1 21.3 0.0 18.7 19.5 20.3 18.5 24.4 19.9 22.1 23.0

Tony Romo


Cowboys 2011 522 4184 8.0 31 10 22 46 1 292 3

2012 648 4903 7.6 28 19 30 49 1 300 2

2013 Projections: 632 5025 7.9 32 16 25 55 0 318 9

NYG KC STL SD DEN WAS PHI DET MIN NO BYE NYG OAK CHI GB WAS PHI

20.2 18.6 17.4 20.4 18.0 18.2 22.5 20.1 21.2 21.6 0.0 20.2 24.0 17.1 16.9 18.2 21.9

Russell Wilson


Seahawks 2011 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

2012 393 3118 7.9 26 10 94 489 4 292 4

2013 Projections: 426 3580 8.4 28 15 81 378 4 302 11

CAR SF JAC HOU IND TEN ARI STL TB ATL MIN BYE NO SF NYG ARI STL

18.0 18.3 21.7 16.8 19.9 20.8 17.4 17.5 18.4 19.8 20.5 0.0 20.8 18.3 19.8 17.4 17.5

Matt Ryan


Falcons 2011 565 4177 7.4 29 12 37 84 2 291 4

2012 615 4719 7.7 32 14 33 138 1 323 3

2013 Projections: 602 4677 7.8 29 15 35 123 1 306 11

NO STL MIA NE NYJ BYE TB ARI CAR SEA TB NO BUF GB WAS SF CAR

21.5 17.5 19.0 18.8 17.9 0.0 18.6 17.3 18.1 15.5 18.6 21.5 20.2 17.0 18.2 18.4 18.1

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

There are real questions about how good a QB Matt Stafford can be when he's not throwing to the game's ultimate superweapon, and

his survivability on 700+ dropbacks with a Riley Reiff/Jason Fox tackle tandem is also up for debate. But tremendous volume + Calvin

Johnson = a very high floor, and the ceiling starts to look better if Stafford can raise his game a bit while taking advantage of improved

targets like Reggie Bush and Ryan Broyles.

Weekly Scoring


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

R/R Total


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

Upside

Romo enjoyed a stat-jack last season, but was less efficient and more volume-dependent as the Dallas run game collapsed. The plan

this season is to lean more on the run game... and that plan will fail. Dallas' OL is already a M*A*S*H unit, and rookie TE Gavin Escobar

has looked worthless in the preseason. It'll be 3 wides and 600+ attempts for Romo yet again, but the efficiency will see an uptick

thanks to rookie WR Terrance Williams and the devastating Dez Bryant. Waiting a round or two and grabbing Romo could pay big

dividends this year - he'll hang right with his more highly drafted peers.

Weekly Scoring

System Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Many had high hopes for Russell Wilson, but few people envisioned him taking the reins in his first game as a rookie. Fewer still

expected the kind of second-half explosion the Seattle offense generated once more read-option looks took advantage of Wilson's legs

and his prodigious ability to exploit the space they opened up in the rest of the defense. The loss of Percy Harvin hurts a bit, but he's

got the same cast that helped him take the league by storm as a rook - Wilson will be just fine.

Weekly Scoring

System Risk

Upside

R/R TotalMatt Ryan took the step his fans had been waiting on last season, as an up-tempo passing attack played to his strengths and generated

plenty of chances for weapons like Jones, White and Gonzalez to thrive. Adding a strong receiving back like Steven Jackson is a plus,

but Ryan has to contend with a schedule with far fewer cupcake secondaries than last year's slate. That plus an iffy right tackle

situation give you pause, but Ryan's slot at the bottom of the QB1 tier is less an indictment of him than an endorsement of the overall

riches at the position.

Weekly Scoring


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

15

Eli Manning


Giants 2011 589 4933 8.4 29 16 35 15 1 305 4

2012 536 3948 7.4 26 15 20 30 0 250 3

2013 Projections: 583 4596 7.9 30 14 25 55 0 295 11

DAL DEN CAR KC PHI CHI MIN PHI BYE OAK GB DAL WAS SD SEA DET WAS

18.5 17.0 17.0 17.6 21.3 16.2 20.1 21.3 0.0 22.7 16.0 18.5 17.2 19.4 14.6 19.0 17.1

Michael Vick


Eagles 2011 423 3303 7.8 18 14 76 589 1 255 4

2012 351 2362 6.7 12 10 62 345 1 173 4

2013 Projections: 525 3724 7.1 24 17 73 475 4 299 10

WAS SD KC DEN NYG TB DAL NYG OAK GB WAS BYE ARI DET MIN CHI DAL

18.0 19.7 18.3 17.9 19.6 18.3 19.0 19.6 22.4 17.0 18.0 0.0 17.3 19.4 20.3 17.1 19.0

Jay Cutler


Bears 2011 314 2319 7.4 13 7 18 55 1 149 3

2012 434 3033 7.0 19 14 40 233 0 207 4

2013 Projections: 538 3970 7.4 27 17 43 215 1 277 11

CIN MIN PIT DET NO NYG WAS BYE GB DET BAL STL MIN DAL CLE PHI GB

16.7 19.0 16.2 18.1 19.4 18.3 16.6 0.0 15.5 18.1 16.6 15.9 19.0 17.6 16.7 20.1 15.5

Andy Dalton


Bengals 2011 516 3398 6.6 20 13 37 152 1 224 4

2012 529 3669 6.9 27 16 47 120 4 275 3

2013 Projections: 558 4042 7.2 29 15 38 106 2 285 10

CHI PIT GB CLE NE BUF DET NYJ MIA BAL CLE BYE SD IND PIT MIN BAL

16.0 16.7 15.9 17.2 17.5 18.8 18.7 16.7 17.7 17.0 17.2 0.0 19.0 19.0 16.7 19.6 17.0


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

While Vick has explosive potential with Chip Kelly in town, it's important to accurately assess where his points will come from. The

threat of the run from Kelly's QB's has typically been more vital to the offense than their actual running, so don't expect a 700+ yard

bonanza on the ground. His arm strength will play up on bombs to DeSean Jackson, but his intermittent accuracy won't let him fully

exploit the offense's quick passing opportunities. With all that said, he'll be a frequent threat for QB1-level scoring while he's healthy

and in the drivers' seat for Philly. Questions about in the QB2 market this year, so a high-impact dice roll isn't a bad option.

Weekly Scoring

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Manning's virtuoso performance in the face of relentless pressure in 2011 was pretty amazing, but the odds - and injuries in the WR

corps - caught up to him last season. The OL still doesn't look terrific, but a healthy-ish Hakeem Nicks with a strong backstop in Rueben

Randle should give Manning more places to go with the ball this year. He'll bounce back and provides an outstanding tandem-start

option, either as insurance for RGIII or in a rotation with Mike Vick or Andy Dalton.

Weekly Scoring

Matthew Stafford without the big arm, Andy Dalton has been dependent on the wildly talented A.J. Green to maintain viability as a QB

in fantasy (or on the field, for that matter). While we're not doing backflips over Dalton's talent, he's got the chance to take a statistical

step forward as the Bengals have added intriguing talent in Tyler Eifert and Giovanni Bernard to go along with a (hopefully) full season

from Mohamed Sanu. Behind a strong OL, Dalton should have the tools to be a solid QB2.

Weekly Scoring

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Jay Cutler is actually the QB that many people think Tony Romo is. In fairness, Cutler's one of the few QBs who's had even worse

protection than Romo and took a merciless while running a deep shot offense behind a vile OL. New coach Marc Trestman is a savvier

offensive operator, and the Bears' new OL might be average - a drastic improvement. With reasonable protection and some non-

Brandon Marshall options (if he chooses to use them), Cutler can be a solid QB2 with spot-start potential.

Weekly Scoring


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

16

Sam Bradford


Rams 2011 358 2164 6.0 6 6 18 26 0 107 3

2012 552 3702 6.7 21 13 38 128 1 238 4

2013 Projections: 570 4176 7.3 27 15 35 131 1 279 10

ARI ATL DAL SF JAC HOU CAR SEA TEN IND BYE CHI SF ARI NO TB SEA

15.8 18.4 17.8 16.8 20.5 15.2 16.5 14.2 19.6 18.6 0.0 15.7 16.8 15.8 19.6 17.0 14.2

Ryan Tannehill


Dolphins 2011 0 2

2012 484 3294 6.8 12 13 49 197 2 198 3

2013 Projections: 538 3877 7.2 25 18 55 237 2 273 8

CLE IND ATL NO BAL BYE BUF NE CIN TB SD CAR NYJ PIT NE BUF NYJ

16.5 18.1 17.9 19.0 16.3 0.0 17.9 16.7 16.5 16.6 18.1 16.2 16.0 16.0 16.7 17.9 16.0

Josh Freeman


Buccaneers 2011 553 3590 6.5 16 22 55 238 4 233 3

2012 558 4065 7.3 27 17 40 135 0 267 4

2013 Projections: 545 4095 7.5 27 15 37 144 1 277 9

NYJ NO NE ARI BYE PHI ATL CAR SEA MIA ATL DET CAR BUF SF STL NO

16.2 19.4 17.0 15.7 0.0 20.2 18.3 16.4 14.1 17.2 18.3 18.1 16.4 18.3 16.7 15.9 19.4

Matt Schaub


Texans 2011 292 2479 8.5 15 6 15 9 2 166 4

2012 544 4008 7.4 22 12 21 -9 0 235 2

2013 Projections: 554 4272 7.7 28 14 20 10 0 270 9

SD TEN BAL SEA SF STL KC BYE IND ARI OAK JAC NE JAC IND DEN TEN

18.0 19.1 16.0 13.5 16.2 15.4 16.4 0.0 18.0 15.2 21.2 20.1 16.5 20.1 18.0 15.9 19.1


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Sam Bradford hasn't done a ton to justify his #1 pick status so far, but 1999 Kurt Warner would have had trouble getting much out of

the 2011 and 2012 Rams. Jake Long's arrival kicks Roger Saffold to RT and improves two spots on the OL, and Bradford suddenly has

an intriguing cast of weapons despite the loss of do-it-all runner Steven Jackson. His division slate is unappealing, but Bradford has

some attractive matchups that guys like Tavon Austin and Jared Cook can help him exploit.

Weekly Scoring


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Matt Schaub's upside is firmly capped by a run-heavy offense. With that said, there's a lot to like about him as a backup option this

season. He's got three legitimate targets for the first time in a while, and the run game may sputter enough to require some extra

passing while still presenting enough of a threat to keep play action profitable. Schaub won't knock anyone's socks off, but with a slate

of sorry pass defenses there will be plenty of games where he can serve as an acceptable option.

Weekly Scoring


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Tannehill simply wasn't ready to be a full-time starter as a rookie, but he turned in a game effort that mixed some solid moments in

with the expected hide-your-eyes throws. In his second year he's got a cast of weapons that looks lively outside, headlined by FA

acquisition Mike Wallace, but distinctly lacks a middle-of-the-field security blanket with the loss of Dustin Keller. His protection may be

spotty, but if it holds up Tannehill has the arm and wheels to post some solid weeks.

Weekly Scoring


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Freeman looked to have left his sophomore slump behind for much of 2012 before a spectacular faceplant down the stretch. He's an

extremely high-beta selection this year. If he gets back to his early 2012 (or even 2010) form, he can flirt with QB1 stats in many

weeks. If he starts giving the ball to the other team, it's hard to think Greg Schiano will give him a long leash depite public

proclamations of support - there's no question the Bucs' third-round selection of Mike Glennon was the real message.

Weekly Scoring

DID NOT PLAY

17

Ben

Roethlisberger


Steelers 2011 513 4077 7.9 21 14 31 70 0 240 3

2012 449 3265 7.3 26 8 26 92 0 236 3

2013 Projections: 518 3847 7.4 23 12 28 84 1 248 9

TEN CIN CHI MIN BYE NYJ BAL OAK NE BUF DET CLE BAL MIA CIN GB CLE

17.4 14.9 13.9 17.1 0.0 14.5 14.8 19.3 15.2 16.4 16.2 14.9 14.8 15.4 14.9 13.8 14.9

Carson Palmer


Cardinals 2011 328 2753 8.4 13 16 16 20 1 154 2

2012 565 4018 7.1 22 14 18 36 1 244 3

2013 Projections: 574 4176 7.3 26 15 20 30 0 259 8

STL DET NO TB CAR SF SEA ATL BYE HOU JAC IND PHI STL TEN SEA SF

14.7 17.0 18.3 15.7 15.2 15.5 13.0 17.2 0.0 13.9 19.2 17.3 19.1 14.7 18.3 13.0 15.5

Alex D. Smith


Chiefs 2011 445 3144 7.1 17 5 52 179 2 219 3

2012 218 1737 8.0 13 5 30 132 0 130 2

2013 Projections: 559 3993 7.1 23 19 45 180 1 257 8

JAC DAL PHI NYG TEN OAK HOU CLE BUF BYE DEN SD DEN WAS OAK IND SD

18.8 16.3 18.7 16.9 17.9 19.8 14.0 15.5 16.9 0.0 15.2 17.1 15.2 15.3 19.8 17.1 17.1

Joe Flacco


Ravens 2011 542 3610 6.7 20 12 39 88 1 227 3

2012 531 3817 7.2 22 10 32 22 3 251 3

2013 Projections: 547 3839 7.0 22 15 30 45 0 231 10

DEN CLE HOU BUF MIA GB PIT BYE CLE CIN CHI NYJ PIT MIN DET NE CIN

13.6 13.9 12.5 15.3 14.3 12.7 13.4 0.0 13.9 13.9 12.9 13.4 13.4 16.0 15.1 14.2 13.9


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

There aren't many experiences that could make Arizona's backfield seem like a refuge, but two seasons in Raiderland will certainly do it.

Palmer will welcome even the scant protection that Arizona's rebuilt OL can offer, and Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are miles

better than anything he had to throw to in Oakland. He's not the best bet to last 16 games and his arm isn't ideally suited for Bruce

Arians' offense, but Palmer should still have his moments in 2013.

Weekly Scoring


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Big Ben’s near-legendary refusal to take no for an answer on any play has led to countless highlights of him spinning, shrugging off two

would-be tacklers and staggering under the weight of a third before heaving the ball downfield. Time and again he manages to make

the play, but it's not a style that ages well. What's more, despite a revamping the early returns on the Steelers' OL have been far from

positive. With fewer weapons and iffy protection, Roethlisberger's prospects are iffy at best.

Weekly Scoring

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

The Ravens' offense took off after jettisonning Cam Camerson as their OC and Joe Flacco reached new heights, with a Lombardi Trophy

awaiting him atop the mountain. A hot streak does not an elite QB make, however, and Flacco's ability to keep his play at a

consistently high level is still up for debate. What's less debateable is the drastic dropoff in the Ravens' skill position talent due to free

agency and injury. Even a top-tier QB can only go so far spamming Torrey Smith and Ray Rice for a full season, and it will be tough for

Flacco's stats to match those of his weapon-wealthier peers.

Weekly Scoring


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

There's a strong chance that Alex Smith will be overexposed in Andy Reid's chuck-it-around attack, but in between the gaffes he'll

manage some solid weeks thanks to a comically easy slate of pass defenses. His limitations as a downfield passer and a paucity of solid

weapons outside of Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles put a hard cap on his potential, however.

Weekly Scoring

18

Philip Rivers


Chargers 2011 582 4624 7.9 27 20 26 36 1 283 2

2012 527 3607 6.8 26 15 27 40 0 237 3

2013 Projections: 553 3692 6.7 25 18 25 50 0 235 8

HOU PHI TEN DAL OAK IND JAC BYE WAS DEN MIA KC CIN NYG DEN OAK KC

12.7 17.3 16.5 15.0 18.4 15.7 17.4 0.0 13.9 13.8 14.5 14.2 14.1 15.5 13.8 18.4 14.2

Brandon

Weeden


Browns 2011 0 3

2012 517 3385 6.5 14 17 27 111 0 186 3

2013 Projections: 561 3892 6.9 21 18 29 113 0 233 9

MIA BAL MIN CIN BUF DET GB KC BAL BYE CIN PIT JAC NE CHI NYJ PIT

14.4 13.9 16.1 14.0 15.4 15.3 12.9 14.1 13.9 0.0 14.0 13.6 17.2 14.3 13.0 13.6 13.6

Christian

Ponder


Vikings 2011 291 1853 6.4 13 13 28 219 0 135 3

2012 483 2935 6.1 18 12 61 246 2 214 3

2013 Projections: 500 3474 6.9 23 18 55 231 2 248 8

DET CHI CLE PIT BYE CAR NYG GB DAL WAS SEA GB CHI BAL PHI CIN DET

16.2 14.0 15.0 14.6 0.0 14.7 16.3 13.9 15.8 14.8 12.8 13.9 14.0 14.8 17.9 15.0 16.2

Jake Locker


Titans 2011 66 542 8.2 4 0 8 56 1 49 3

2012 314 2176 6.9 10 11 41 291 1 151 4

2013 Projections: 520 3610 6.9 22 19 60 360 2 261 9

PIT HOU SD NYJ KC SEA SF BYE STL JAC IND OAK IND DEN ARI JAC HOU

15.4 14.5 17.3 15.4 15.9 13.7 15.8 0.0 15.1 18.9 17.3 19.8 17.3 15.5 15.0 18.9 14.5


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

After a fall-off in 2011 and an absolutely wretched 2012, Philip Rivers' status as a quality QB is in serious doubt. His prospects are

hardly enhanced by the loss of deep burner Danario Alexander and what looks to be another failtastic Chargers' OL. A move to a quick-

passing offense should help lessen the beating Rivers takes this year, but it's not likely to make him all that attractive even as a backup

option.

Weekly Scoring

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

A punchline for most of 2012, Weeden has shown some moments of legitimate frisk in the Browns' new downfield attack. You almost

certainly don't want him as your backup, but he's better than the guys below him as a deep-league option and he should be able to at

least help Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron fulfill a good chunk of their potential this year.

Weekly Scoring


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Locker offers some intrigue - he's got a reasonable cast of receiving weapons, an improved OL, and he's more than capable of chipping

in a few hundred rushing yards and some TDs on the ground over a full season of work. But if he doesn't know where the ball is going

when he throws it, do you know if you can count on him as your backup QB?

Weekly Scoring


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Ponder has added some intriguing weapons in Greg Jennings and rookie Cordarrelle Patterson, and with AP in the backfield play action

passes will always be on the menu. But when a guy is getting confused by coverage looks in the preseason, it's no kind of a good sign.

Ponder is more likely to squander his newfound offensive talent than to capitalize on it.

Weekly Scoring

DID NOT PLAY

19

E.J. Manuel


Bills 2011 0 4

2012 0 3

2013 Projections: 431 2887 6.7 17 21 70 450 4 231 12

NE CAR NYJ BAL CLE CIN MIA NO KC PIT NYJ BYE ATL TB JAC MIA NE

0.0 0.0 13.1 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.8 15.2 13.6 13.1 13.1 0.0 14.5 13.6 15.8 13.8 12.9

Blaine Gabbert


Jaguars 2011 413 2214 5.4 12 11 48 98 0 135 2

2012 278 1662 6.0 9 6 18 56 0 102 3

2013 Projections: 545 3758 6.9 20 22 43 142 1 229 7

KC OAK SEA IND STL DEN SD SF BYE TEN ARI HOU CLE HOU BUF TEN IND

14.4 18.3 12.1 15.7 13.6 14.0 15.7 14.2 0.0 16.5 13.4 12.9 14.2 12.9 15.6 16.5 15.7

Terrelle Pryor


Raiders 2011 0 2

2012 30 155 5.2 2 1 10 51 1 24 2

2013 Projections: 445 2715 6.1 11 17 75 388 3 192 6

IND JAC DEN WAS SD KC BYE PIT PHI NYG HOU TEN DAL NYJ KC SD DEN

14.4 18.3 12.1 15.7 13.6 14.0 0.0 14.2 13.0 16.5 13.4 12.9 14.2 12.9 15.6 16.5 15.7

Mark Sanchez


Jets 2011 542 3474 6.4 26 18 37 103 6 271 2

2012 453 2883 6.4 13 18 22 28 0 152 2

2013 Projections: 520 3434 6.6 17 22 40 160 1 205 5

TB NE BUF TEN ATL PIT NE CIN NO BYE BUF BAL MIA OAK CAR CLE MIA

12.5 12.6 13.5 14.3 13.5 12.0 12.6 12.4 14.3 0.0 13.5 12.3 12.7 15.8 12.1 12.4 12.7

R/R Total

You don't want Gabbert, but with improved protection there may be guys you want even LESS than him. If you're in a crazy-deep

league, he's a better option than the guys below him on this list.

Weekly Scoring


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

Player Risk


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

It looks like the Oakland brass wants to give Pryor at least a long look this season, and he's the likeliest bet to start Week One out of

any of Oakland's dire QB stable. The results will not be good.

Weekly Scoring

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

Let's save ourselves some time. No. Just, no.

Weekly Scoring

NO!Passing Rushing Total

Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Manuel was always likely to seize the reins early in Buffalo, but Kevin Kolb's concussion woes have made him the unchallenged starter.

He may be challenged to play in Week One thanks to a balky knee, and very little about his lack of polish as a passer puts a serious

damper on his potential in 2013.

Weekly Scoring


Points

Risk/Reward

RUNNING BACKS

20

21

Att Yard YPC TD Target Rec Yard YPA TD 5

2011 209 973 4.7 12 23 18 139 6.0 1 207 5

2012 348 2097 6.0 12 51 40 217 5.4 1 349 5

323 1793 5.6 13 45 36 203 5.6 1 320 15


20.4 19.0 19.4 19.2 0.0 19.0 21.3 19.6 19.3 20.4 19.6 19.6 19.0 19.0 22.8 20.4 20.4


2011 0 4

2012 319 1454 4.6 11 70 49 472 9.6 1 314 4

307 1458 4.8 12 60 53 390 7.4 2 322 12


19.3 21.9 19.4 20.6 0.0 22.9 20.8 19.4 19.8 19.3 20.8 20.7 19.4 21.2 17.7 18.8 21.9


2011 107 561 5.2 4 53 39 269 5.1 2 158 4

2012 207 1244 6.0 6 57 43 459 10.7 2 261 5

267 1427 5.4 8 59 48 411 8.6 2 292 13


18.8 18.9 18.5 18.7 19.2 20.4 18.7 21.1 18.7 18.7 18.5 0.0 19.9 18.3 19.8 18.7 18.8


2011 12 83 6.9 0 6 5 9 1.5 1 20 4

2012 284 1513 5.3 5 49 36 236 6.6 1 247 4

247 1356 5.5 8 68 59 424 7.2 3 303 12


18.2 17.1 20.3 19.1 19.0 20.2 15.6 17.5 18.7 0.0 16.7 17.6 16.7 18.6 20.2 18.4 17.6

Upside


C.J. Spiller went off like a bomb in 2012. In the eleven games where he got 12 or more touches, he averaged over 120 combined yards

and challenged Jamaal Charles' insane 2012 season for pure per-touch destruction. With run-friendly coach Doug Marrone stepping in

from Syracuse, the sky is the limit for Spiller in 2013. The expected coronation of E.J. Manuel could put a cap on the offense's overall

productivity, but it could also open up the kind of read-option opportunities that made Chris Johnson into CJ2K.

Weekly

Scoring

C.J. Spiller Top

Tier

Rushing Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Bills System Risk

Doug Martin Top

Tier


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Buccaneers System RiskDID NOT PLAY

Upside


Though overshadowed by outright cyborg Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles managed quite a return of his own in 2012 - a 1500-yard

effort that was even more impressive given the Chiefs' dumpster fire of a season. Andy Reid turns backs into PPR monsters, and The

Walrus' arrival combined with an improved OL and a cake schedule makes Charles a safe bet for Top-5 back status. Should AP take

time off to finally go hunt down Sarah Connor, the top spot could be there for the taking.

Weekly

Scoring

Jamaal Charles Top

Tier


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Chiefs System Risk

Upside


Last season, we said it was 'inconceivable' that Adrian Peterson could regain his full measure of speed, power and grace so quickly after

a major knee injury. Apparently, that word does not mean what we thought it meant. Peterson's run at the record was absolutely

dazzling last season, and more than a year out from surgery with a road-grading OL it's hard to put a cap on what he's capable of.

While regression to the mean may be more likely than a further ascent into the stratosphere, it's hard to put any other back - or player,

for that matter - at the top of the board.

Weekly

Scoring

Adrian Peterson Top

Tier


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Vikings System Risk

Upside


His starting guards went down, his head coach somehow turned the take-a-knee play into controversy, and his QB's final five games

were the most depressing finish since Requiem for a Dream. Through it all, though, rookie runner Doug Martin kept grinding to turn in

one of the best first-year showings in league history. He lacks the sizzle of other top runners, but he brings the steak in pure Emmitt

Smith/Ray Rice fashion. With his OL restored to health and more support from his defense, Martin's sophomore effort should see him

challenge for the Fantasy RB title.

Weekly

Scoring

22


2011 273 1309 4.8 17 69 48 315 4.6 3 330 4

2012 200 840 4.2 2 67 54 373 6.9 3 205 4

283 1416 5.0 9 64 56 343 6.1 2 298 12


19.4 18.4 18.0 17.4 20.0 17.5 17.9 20.0 21.2 18.3 19.4 0.0 19.1 19.2 18.2 17.7 17.9


2011 0 4

2012 267 950 3.6 11 70 51 367 7.2 1 255 3

301 1294 4.3 12 78 55 412 7.5 1 304 10


18.2 18.2 18.5 19.8 20.0 19.5 18.7 18.4 18.2 0.0 19.8 18.3 19.4 18.3 18.0 18.2 18.3


2011 291 1364 4.7 12 104 76 704 6.8 3 373 4

2012 257 1143 4.4 9 83 61 478 7.8 1 283 3

228 1025 4.5 8 91 75 481 6.4 1 280 12


16.4 17.4 15.4 18.4 17.0 17.2 16.8 0.0 17.4 18.6 16.6 16.6 16.8 17.2 18.1 17.1 18.6


2011 204 999 4.9 3 76 52 490 6.4 1 225 4

2012 248 1094 4.4 5 60 44 340 7.7 1 223 4

259 1202 4.7 7 75 59 366 6.2 2 270 12


17.8 16.5 16.2 17.4 18.3 18.2 17.7 0.0 16.6 17.4 16.2 15.9 16.5 16.1 16.7 19.2 16.6

Weekly

Scoring

Richardson is a tough, dynamic and all-around excellent runner who could lead all backs in touches this season. It's even possible that

all of that is enough to overcome the indisputible fact that God hates Cleveland. But whether His wrath manifests itself in more

nagging injuries (he always seems to have one), a smiting of the OL (his guards are dropping like flies in the preseason) or a full-on

collapse from Brandon Weeden (which hardly requires Divine intervention), SOMETHING is likely to make every yard a struggle. And

that's a tough row to hoe, even for a back of Richardson's talent.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


LeSean McCoy Top

Tier


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Eagles System Risk

Upside


After suffering through a nightmare season for the erstwhile 'Dream Team' and getting concussed to boot, LeSean McCoy has to be

salivating to take the field in 2013. Fantasy owners should be drooling too - Chip Kelly brings an up-tempo, high-octane ground attack

that should produce major numbers for its feature back. The offensive line will look worlds better than it did in 2012, and outside of

deep shots to DeSean Jackson the passing game could make McCoy a major focus as well. Shady won't top 300 carries, but his per-

touch productivity keep him square among the elite at his position.

Weekly

Scoring

Trent Richardson Top

Tier


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

DID NOT PLAYBrowns System Risk

Ray Rice #1

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Ravens System Risk

Upside


Rice has some “I wouldn’t call him poor exactly, but he does take his dates to Golden Corral” man’s Emmitt Smith in his game as a

somewhat undersized runner with great vision, patience and the ability to bounce off tacklers and make them miss in the hole. He's

also dynamite as a receiver, and he may shoulder an even bigger receiving load this season with Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin gone.

The flip side is ceding more carries to hard-running backup Bernard Pierce, but the quality of the Ravens' OL and Rice's skill set combine

to make him a safe and solid choice as a #1 back.

Weekly

Scoring

Matt Forte #1

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Bears System Risk

Upside


The Bears' offense was largely an afterthought in the Lovie Smith era, while the offensive line resembled an afterbirth. New coach

Marc Trestman aims to clean up the mess, and Matt Forte figures to be a major beneficiary. Attention has finally been paid to the OL,

which could achieve a long dreamt-of level of 'average' if additions like Jermon Bushrod, Matt Slauson and rookie Kyle Long pan out.

Trestman is also emphasizing shorter drops and safer throws for Jay Cutler while appearing open to more red zone carries for his lead

runner. In addition to giving Bears' fans a reason not to head to the beer line when the offense takes the field, all that means a top 10

PPR ranking for Forte.

23


2011 0 4

2012 335 1606 4.8 13 16 11 77 7.0 0 257 3

325 1511 4.7 13 26 22 136 6.2 0 265 11


19.0 16.2 16.8 18.9 0.0 16.1 15.7 15.3 16.3 15.9 19.0 14.8 17.6 16.1 17.4 16.1 17.6


2011 285 1204 4.2 12 41 28 212 5.2 1 248 3

2012 315 1590 5.0 11 30 23 196 8.5 1 274 3

301 1475 4.9 12 26 18 155 8.6 1 259 9


15.3 14.4 16.6 14.0 17.0 17.4 16.5 14.7 14.9 17.0 15.6 0.0 17.6 14.4 17.3 16.5 14.7


2011 278 1224 4.4 10 72 53 617 8.6 2 309 32012 351 1411 4.0 15 58 40 217 3.7 2 305 3

285 1211 4.3 12 40 32 198 5.0 1 251 10


15.3 16.7 14.8 15.3 13.8 14.3 15.1 0.0 16.2 15.9 17.8 16.0 14.8 16.0 16.2 14.5 16.7


2011 217 1097 5.1 6 52 43 296 5.7 1 224 3

2012 227 986 4.3 6 52 35 292 8.3 2 211 4

220 957 4.4 6 77 57 400 7.0 2 241 10


14.8 15.4 15.9 14.3 14.8 15.0 16.0 14.3 0.0 14.3 14.5 14.3 14.8 17.1 14.5 16.2 14.8

A one-cut wonder in the proud Shanahan/Kubiak tradition, Foster found fewer places to cut to in 2012 as the right side of his OL failed

to hold up their end of the bargain. Questions remain on the OL, and more have been raised about Foster's explosiveness after some

very pedestrian Yards After Contact and Yards per Reception numbers last season. He'll remain a workhorse, but those questions and

some health concerns leading up to Week One knock him out of the top tier of 2013 backs.

Weekly

Scoring

Arian Foster

RB

Texans

2013 Projections:

#1

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System RiskUpside

R/R Total

Weekly

Scoring

Marshawn Lynch #1

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Seahawks System Risk

Reggie Bush #2

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Lions System Risk

Upside


Mike Shanahan is the Simon Cowell of the NFL, giving obscure sixth-round runners a one-of-a-kind platform to become household

names. He tends to be similarly capricious with his affections, but Alfred Morris won his season-long devotion by turning in a 1600-

yard, 13-TD showcase. Some of that total was read-option largesse generated by RGIII, but Morris proved adept at the Shanahan one-

cut style and was frequently a load to tackle. Questions around Griffin's health and its impact on the Redskin run game keep Morris

from being a slam-dunk elite choice, but as long as he stays on Shanahan's good side there will be plenty of production.

Weekly

Scoring

Alfred Morris #1

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Redskins System RiskDID NOT PLAY

Upside


It's usually raining in Seattle, but Marshawn Lynch has also been responsible for a hail of Skittles with frequent jaunts to the end zone.

Russell Wilson's downfield passing and read-option savvy gave Lynch a ton of room to roam last season. Similar production should be

in store, but the picture isn't entirely sunny - again, no surprise for Seattle. The OL is still nothng to write home about, Lynch's violent

running style poses an injury risk, he's not too involved in the passing game and could have his workload scaled back a bit to keep him

fresh. Those factors could make Lynch's production spikier than you like from your lead back, but he should be spiking enough

footballs to make up for it.

Upside


Reggie Bush goes to New Orleans to become the Next Big Thing - becomes Eric Metcalf Lite. Reggie Bush goes to Miami, Darren

Sproles goes to New Orleans and becomes what Reggie Bush was supposed to be. Meanwhile, Bush's catches get dialed back but he

finally shows signs of being a competent between-the-tackles runner. Now Bush goes to Detroit to be...the Next Big Thing? Probably

not, but at least he stands to see a major spike in his receiving totals with the pass-happy Lions. If he can stick as the ground game's

lead component while seeing 11-12% of 700 throws come his way, he'll push for RB1 status.

Weekly

Scoring

24


2011 260 1145 4.4 5 58 42 333 5.7 1 226 3

2012 257 1042 4.1 4 53 38 321 8.4 0 198 3

249 1008 4.1 10 54 42 272 6.5 2 242 9


16.4 14.2 14.5 14.6 14.5 0.0 14.2 15.5 14.6 14.9 14.2 16.4 15.9 14.9 15.8 13.3 14.6


2011 262 1047 4.0 4 79 57 418 5.3 0 228 3

2012 276 1243 4.5 6 49 36 226 6.3 0 219 4

273 1337 4.9 6 47 38 257 6.8 2 245 9


14.8 13.4 15.2 14.7 14.9 15.1 13.5 0.0 14.3 15.7 15.9 17.5 15.9 14.3 15.7 15.7 13.4


2011 343 1606 4.7 8 64 43 374 5.8 3 307 3

2012 86 414 4.8 1 18 14 86 6.1 1 76 4

278 1237 4.5 9 50 37 223 6.0 1 243 10


14.7 17.3 15.0 15.8 14.1 14.2 15.0 13.4 0.0 16.3 15.5 13.3 14.8 13.3 16.0 16.3 15.8


2011 88 443 5.0 1 5 3 13 2.6 0 55 4

2012 290 1263 4.4 12 14 6 51 8.5 0 209 3

302 1331 4 12 15 10 69 7 0 222 11


14.7 13.5 12.7 14.7 13.9 15.1 13.5 13.0 13.3 0.0 13.0 12.8 12.0 13.3 13.0 13.1 14.7

A powerful and decisive runner operating behind one of the league's top O-lines, Ridley should have little trouble picking up where he

left off in 2012. While the Patriot passing game is in flux, their offense can still impose its will between the tackles and may even up its

emphasis on the run game. Ridley's negligible role in the passing game caps his upside, but his overall ecosystem gives him a very high

floor that many owners could prefer to more high-variance options in the #2 Back tier.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


Pocket Hercules finally found his Kryptonite in 2012 as…wait, no, Hercules isn't Kryptonite. He failed to eat his spinach and thus….no,

wait, that's not right either. Forget the metaphors - MJD was laid low by a Lisfranc injury and logged very limited carries in the

preseason. He fought through an iffy OL and all-around bad team to lead the league in rushing in 2011, but the odds seem stacked

even higher against him in 2013. His skills and workload give him plenty of upside, but he's still something of a buyer beware situation.

Maurice Jones-Drew #2

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Jaguars System Risk

Steven Jackson #2

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Falcons System Risk

Upside


After Chris Johnson's Twinkie- and Pall Mall-laden holdout led to a disastrous 2011 campaign, he bounced back close to his (non-Vince

Young enabled) career averages last season. However, he still epitomized boom-or-bust and was massively dependent on long, clean

runs while posting an anemic 2.0 Yards After Contact average. An improved OL will help his fortunes, but Johnson simply isn't the back

he looked to be in 2009. He can win you some weeks if paired with a consistent #1 RB and #1 WR, but counting on him as a top option

is courting a .500 record at best - and you deserve better.

Weekly

Scoring

Chris D. Johnson #2

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Titans System Risk

Upside


Kudos to Steven Jackson for finally escaping a borderline abusive relationship with the St. Louis Rams' offense. Unfortunately, Jackson

got out right as the Rams are turning things around, and his new home may not mean that big a spike in productivity. The Falcons' OL

simply aren't good run blockers, and topping 250 carries in a pass-happy offense could be a challenge. He should snag 40+ receptions

and manage double-digit TDs, but his age and Atlanta's style could put serious caps on his upside. He's still a dependable option in a

sea of RB2 uncertainty, though, so play it safe or roll the dice as you prefer.

Weekly

Scoring

Weekly

Scoring

RB Player Risk

Patriots System Risk

Upside


Stevan Ridley #2

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

25


2011 87 603 6.9 2 111 86 710 6.4 7 271 4

2012 48 244 5.1 1 104 75 667 8.9 7 214 4

79 410 5.2 2 96 77 605 7.9 6 226 12


13.9 13.8 14.6 14.2 13.5 14.3 0.0 14.8 13.2 13.2 12.1 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.1 14.4 13.8


2011 0 4

2012 0 4

277 1205 4.4 9 39 29 233 6.0 1 233 11


12.7 14.7 14.8 0.0 14.7 13.7 14.0 13.9 13.6 16.4 15.4 13.9 14.7 15.0 13.9 13.8 13.6


2011 0 3

2012 161 663 4.1 4 41 34 247 7.3 0 149 4

228 980 4.3 7 53 41 321 8 2 225 9


15.1 13.6 13.2 13.9 13.2 14.7 16.0 14.5 13.8 15.3 0.0 15.1 16.0 13.4 13.8 14.7 16.0


2011 0 3

2012 51 250 4.9 1 8 6 45 7.5 0 42 4

239 1133 4.8 6 51 41 280 5.5 2 230 10


14.2 14.8 14.8 15.6 13.8 0.0 15.2 13.9 15.1 13.5 14.2 13.9 13.8 13.9 13.9 15.2 13.8

Saints System Risk

Upside


It took all of about two games after his 2011 arrival for Darren Sproles to make Saints fans forget about Reggie Bush, as he became the

focal point (OK, maybe A focal point, as they had a lot of foci that year) of a devastating Saints' offense. With Sean Payton in Sherriff

Goodell's Bountygate hoosegow in 2012, the New Orleans offense still jacked stats but was less efficient. Their decreased utlization of

Sproles was part and parcel of that, and if Payton's return means 2011 touches for Sproles he'll approach 2011 points - which were

prodigious. Likely he'll land somewhere in the middle, but that's still strong RB2 territory.

Weekly

Scoring

Darren Sproles #2

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

DeMarco Murray #2

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Cowboys System RiskDID NOT PLAY

Lamar Miller #2

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Dolphins DID NOT PLAY System Risk

Upside


It's fitting that Murray's college rallying cry was Boomer Sooner - he's a boom-or-bust back who's going to find himself in the trainer's

room sooner or later. He's got the speed and power to produce strong numbers and can be featured in the passing game, but Murray

hasn't proved that he can even approach a full season's workload without breaking down. What's more, the Cowboys' OL can count on

solid play from exactly two out of five positions with one of those being a rookie. Slot him in the middle of the Boom-or-Bust Boys as a

#2 back.

Weekly

Scoring

Eddie Lacy #2

Back

R/R Total

Tiring of a run game that did little more than set up Aaron Rodgers for 3rd-and-8 heroics, Green Bay took Bama's Eddie Lacy in the

second round with a Jonathan Franklin chaser in the fourth. Lacy has been the one to shine in camp, however, and has a firm grasp on

lead back duties. With a season-ending injury to DuJuan Harris and a faceplant from fellow rookie Johnathan Franklin, Lacy could

approach 280 carries in a high-scoring offense while playing enough third downs to catch 20+ balls.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


Touches were tough to come by for Lamar Miller in 2012 as the Dolphins featured Reggie Bush and then felt compelled to waste

carries on Daniel Thomas. With Bush gone, however, the door is open for Miller to seize a featured back role. He's got the quicks and

long speed to make some real noise, and showed a reasonable amount of power and between-the-tackles ability in last year's limited

run. Miller's size, the iffy state of the Miami OL and GM Jeff Ireland's continued pimping of Thomas all introduce some downside into

the mix, but Miller still represents a solid RB2 option with upside.

Weekly

Scoring


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Packers DID NOT PLAY System Risk

DID NOT PLAY Upside

2013 Projections:

26


2011 282 1211 4.3 8 31 17 114 3.7 0 198 3

2012 259 1212 4.7 8 36 28 234 8.4 1 227 3

258 1133 4.4 9 32 26 205 8 1 220 9


13.5 13.5 14.3 12.7 12.0 14.0 14.7 14.1 0.0 13.1 14.9 14.1 12.7 13.5 12.8 14.3 14.0


2011 0 3

2012 71 358 5.0 4 9 4 34 8.5 1 73 4

215 1050 4.9 6 44 35 292 8.2 2 217 10


12.1 11.8 12.2 12.2 14.4 12.0 12.3 14.4 0.0 14.4 12.4 12.1 13.2 12.5 12.5 13.0 13.2


2011 113 614 5.4 4 23 19 154 6.7 1 126 2

2012 216 707 3.3 2 63 42 258 6.1 1 157 4

230 968 4.2 6 68 50 415 6.1 1 230 9


14.4 14.3 13.1 14.7 13.9 13.5 0.0 13.5 15.9 15.1 12.3 15.0 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.9 13.1


2011 0 3

2012 0 4

195 915 4.7 6 50 39 355 7.1 2 214 10


11.8 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.0 13.0 12.8 11.8 12.0 12.0 12.3 0.0 12.3 12.7 11.9 12.2 14.0

Upside


Swap our 2012 predictions for Adrian Peterson and Darren McFadden, we did a pretty good job last year. Of course, that's a bit like

saying, "Other than that, Mrs. Kennedy, how'd you like the parade?" The Raiders' severely ill-advised switch to a zone-blocking attack

helped to sink their season, and took many fantasy teams down with them. A shift back to a power-based scheme will help this year,

but Oakland's OL still looks dire - especially after the loss of LT Jared Veldheer. Dump-off passes and big-play potential still lend some

appeal, but Run DMC will have to be tougher than leather to excel on this year's hideous Raider squad.

Weekly

Scoring

Darren McFadden #2

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Raiders System Risk

Upside


Frank Gore isn't a flashy option (though a 54-yard preseason jaunt showed he still has some pep in his step), but the pure power of the

49ers run game ensures he'll bring plenty of cash to the table. The 49ers should run the ball 500 times this year behind the league's

best OL, and grabbing just half of those carries ensures that Gore will be a steady presence in your Fantasy backfield.

Weekly

Scoring

Frank Gore #2

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

49ers System Risk

David Wilson #2

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Giants System RiskDID NOT PLAY

Upside


Wilson's raw speed is jaw-dropping, and he may be as likely as any back outside of the Chris Johnson/CJ Spiller/Jamaal Charles troika to

house multiple 50+ yard runs this season. The downside of the equation is a tendency to dance in the backfield, along with iffy pass-

protection skills. Those deficiencies could open the door for a real time-share with the talented Andre Brown, who figures to nab the

goal-line work in any case. Wilson will have some huge weeks, but consistency is unlikely to be a hallmark.

Weekly

Scoring

Giovanni Bernard #3

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Bengals System RiskDID NOT PLAY

Upside


Giovanni Bernard has a gear that Benjarvus Green-Ellis just lacks…and then he has a couple more gears past that. Marvin Lewis is no

one's idea of a great decision-maker, but even he'll have little choice but to give Bernard the lion's share of the Bengals' backfield work

by midseason. And once he takes over that role...look out.

Weekly

Scoring

DID NOT PLAY

27


2011 171 659 3.9 9 44 34 267 6.1 2 193 3

2012 221 1015 4.6 6 31 23 245 7.9 0 185 3

233 1070 4.6 6 48 36 281 7.8 2 219 9


15.6 13.2 12.0 14.0 13.5 13.5 12.8 0.0 12.0 12.8 14.6 14.0 14.6 14.3 12.0 13.2 14.0


2011 0 2

2012 0 4

249 1145 4.6 9 24 18 127 7 1 205 10


11.8 13.3 14.2 14.2 12.1 12.8 13.0 12.7 0.0 12.3 12.1 11.8 12.1 13.4 12.3 10.8 14.2


2011 0 3

2012 62 251 4.0 3 13 8 149 18.6 1 72 3

119 499 4.2 3 80 62 525 6.6 4 206 10


13.2 11.8 12.2 12.5 13.9 13.7 11.8 12.5 12.2 0.0 12.7 12.0 11.3 12.8 12.5 12.4 13.2


2011 0 3

2012 0 4

202 865 4.3 7 27 19 155 5.7 0 163 11


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 13.4 16.0 13.3 14.8 14.3 13.6 13.4 13.3 14.4 13.8 13.6

Montee Ball

Le'Veon Bell #3

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

#3

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Broncos DID NOT PLAY System Risk

Weekly

Scoring

DID NOT PLAY

Steelers System RiskDID NOT PLAY

Shane Vereen #3

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk


Upside


Bradshaw's troublesome feet and the emergence of David Wilson spelled the end of his time with the Giants. A healthy Bradshaw

could make some noise in Indy, though, as he's far and away the most talented back on the roster and still has plenty of speed and

shake to deploy. That plus his skills as a pass catcher give him plenty of upside, but his injury history makes him tough to count on.

Weekly

Scoring

Ahmad Bradshaw #3

Back


Points

DID NOT PLAY

System Risk

Upside


Vereen got limited run in 2012, but the Pats' situation could provide him with a much larger role in 2013. Specifically, he could inherit

Aaron Hernandez' old 'mobile chess piece/mismatch creator' role which could potentially lead to a bunch of high-quality targets from

Tom Brady. He's not likely to reach a Sproles-caliber workload, however, and if Gronkowski comes back quickly while rookies like

Kenbrell Thompkins and Zach Sudfield pan out, Vereen might see a lot fewer balls coming his way.

Weekly

Scoring

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Colts

Weekly

Scoring

DID NOT PLAY Upside


Contending teams with 38-year old QBs don't jack around with second-round choices, so when Denver took Ball in the second round it

was natural to assume a star turn was in the offing. However, concerns about Ball's pass-protection chops has raised the specter of a

split-time situation. Ronnie Hillman may have fumbled away his shot in the preseason, but Knowshon Moreno could cut into Ball's

work substantially until Ball gets his protection issues squared away. That uncertainty and John Fox's back-by-committee proclivities

push Ball down the board, but if he truly seizes the job he'll make some major hay in a high-powered O.

Upside


After enduring a disastrous ground game in 2012, the Steelers tabbed Michigan State runner Le'Veon Bell to lead a resurgence. While

he's not a truly dynamic runner, Bell does bring a reasonable degree of shiftiness and solid zone-run savvy to go with a strong

speed/power combination. His foot injury should keep him out through the Steelers' Week 5 bye, but the potential for a feature-back

role in the season's second half keeps him from falling any lower.

28


2011 222 1091 4.9 6 59 50 455 7.7 0 241 3

2012 184 707 3.8 1 56 39 252 4.5 0 141 3

221 928 4.2 5 49 42 260 6 1 197 8


10.8 14.0 13.1 11.8 14.0 12.7 12.6 0.0 12.9 11.5 11.9 11.9 12.9 13.2 11.5 14.0 11.9


2011 79 374 4.7 1 1 0 0 0.0 0 43 3

2012 40 217 5.4 2 3 2 15 7.5 0 37 4

264 1135 4.3 9 16 12 71 6 0 187 9

TB NE BUF TEN ATL PIT NE CIN NO BYE BUF BAL MIA OAK CAR CLE MIA

10.7 11.0 12.3 12.6 12.3 11.2 11.0 11.7 12.7 0.0 12.3 11.0 11.0 13.4 11.0 11.2 11.0


2011 0 3

2012 73 385 5.3 8 17 12 86 7.2 0 107 4

162 775 4.8 9 28 20 180 6.4 1 176 11


10.2 9.8 10.1 10.2 12.1 10.0 10.2 12.1 0.0 12.0 10.4 10.2 10.8 10.4 10.4 10.8 10.8


2011 0 4

2012 98 475 4.8 0 36 24 163 6.8 0 88 3

183 804 4.4 6 40 29 180 6 1 169 10


10.8 10.9 10.2 9.3 10.8 9.3 10.2 10.4 11.3 11.0 0.0 10.1 9.3 10.8 11.5 9.9 10.4

Chris Ivory #3

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Jets System Risk

Ryan Mathews #3

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Chargers System Risk

Upside


The Jets WANT Ivory to succeed in a feature back role, and that counts for a lot. But questions about his durability and the near-

certainty of a disastrous Jets' season put a serious damper on his value.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


The Three M's - Mathews, McFadden and Murray - served as the Four Horsemen for many fantasy teams' hopes in 2012. Of the three,

Mathews may have the worst 2013 prospects. He gives Murray and McFadden a run for their money in the injury-prone department,

features an OL that may be only marginally better than the Raiders' pending disaster, and has the backfield-mate most prone to siphon

off work in Danny Woodhead. If he's still on the board at this point in the draft, take him - but he won't be, and your team will be all

the better for it.

Weekly

Scoring

Andre Brown #3

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Giants DID NOT PLAY System Risk

Upside


Brown enjoyed a tremendously productive run in the middle of the 2012 season before getting shelved with a broken leg. He's the #2

back in New York, but he's also got the inside track to both goal-line and third-down work. While a preseason fumble raised eyebrows,

David Wilson is no paragon of ball security and Wilson's tendency to dance is the more likely trait to earn Tom Coughlin's ire. With

third down and goal-line work in hand, it won't take too many regular downs for Brown to put up some impressive point totals.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


Despite early-season hype for Isaiah Pead, Daryl Richardson has locked down lead-back duties going into the 2013 season. That

designation may not mean a wealth of opportunity, though, as it's easy to imagine a scenario where Richardson handles 13-15 carries

a game as the lead in a 3-headed backfield.

Weekly

Scoring

Daryl Richardson #3

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Rams System RiskDID NOT PLAY

29


2011 122 474 3.9 5 13 11 46 3.5 0 93 3

2012 156 602 3.9 5 10 6 29 2.9 0 99 3

212 921 4.4 10 10 7 42 6 0 163 9


10.4 9.0 10.0 9.2 9.3 9.2 0.0 10.4 9.6 9.6 8.8 10.4 9.6 9.2 8.8 9.2 9.0


2011 175 942 5.4 4 19 13 98 5.2 0 141 3

2012 65 279 4.3 2 11 11 49 4.5 0 56 5

125 618 4.9 5 28 20 180 6.4 1 136 11


7.0 8.3 6.9 8.9 7.6 7.6 7.1 0.0 8.6 7.2 8.3 8.0 8.9 7.0 8.6 7.2 8.3


2011 155 836 5.4 7 25 16 135 5.4 0 155 2

2012 173 737 4.3 5 20 13 187 14.4 2 147 4

200 898 4.5 5 25 19 152 8.0 1 160 8


9.8 10.5 10.7 0.0 10.2 9.7 9.2 9.3 10.4 8.8 9.6 9.5 9.3 10.9 9.6 10.9 10.4


2011 228 928 4.1 9 28 18 154 5.5 0 180 3

2012 51 182 3.6 0 11 9 62 6.9 1 39 3

225 923 4.1 6 35 26 184 7 1 179 8


10.4 11.5 12.1 10.4 10.7 9.9 11.0 11.6 0.0 9.8 11.5 11.6 12.8 10.4 12.0 11.0 9.9

Ben Tate #3/

Cuff


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Texans System Risk

Upside


Tate struggled through an injury-riddled 2012, failing to capitalize on the promise he showed as a one-cut clone to Arian Foster in

2011. Entering this season, however, it's Foster who is dogged by injury and tales of a time share - at least early in the season - have

been raised in Houston. While Tate may not score as much as some of the lower-tier "lead" runners from other teams if Foster stays

healthy, but if Foster (already dinged, high-mileage Foster) goes down then Tate skyrockets. The upside is too big to ignore.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


A reunion with former coach Bruce Arians augured big things for Rashard Mendenhall. Since then, knee issues have resurfaced while

injuries and general Cardinals-ness have again plagued the Arizona OL. For right now he's a lead back in the NFL, which has value, and

there's not a lot that's inspiring behind him in the backfield. But can you envision a situation where you'd really, really want to start

Rashard Mendenhall?

Weekly

Scoring

Rashard Mendenhall #3

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Cardinals System Risk

Upside


The Panthers' former GM was very slow to understand the fungibility of running backs in the NFL, and DWill still has a big, shiny

contract to show for it. That contract helped put the 'former' in 'former Panthers' GM', but for the present Williams is Carolina's lead

back as ankle woes have landed Jonathan Stewart on the PUP. Williams always tantalizes for a couple of games, but then mixes in long

stretches of brutal futility. 2013 probably won't be much different.

Weekly

Scoring

DeAngelo Williams #3

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk


Upside


Ingram has been a disappointment during his first two seasons in New Orleans, but he seems to have firmly staked out the early-down

and goal-line role this season with Sean Payton's return. If you said Pierre Thomas deserved at least an equal role…you'd be right, but

you don't get what you deserve. You often get what you're gifted, and as long as Ingram doesn't stumble too badly he can parlay the

gift of a starting role into double-digit TDs at least.

Weekly

Scoring

Mark Ingram #3

Back


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Saints System Risk

30


2011 0 4

2012 115 564 4.9 4 19 13 56 4.3 0 99 5

118 616 5.2 5 21 15 95 6.4 0 116 12


7.4 7.2 7.1 6.7 7.8 6.7 7.0 7.8 8.3 7.1 7.4 0.0 7.4 7.4 7.0 6.9 7.0


2011 0 3

2012 108 532 4.9 1 11 7 47 6.7 0 71 4

167 837 5.0 4 22 15 114 7.6 0 134 11


7.8 8.1 7.3 8.9 7.9 8.2 8.1 0.0 8.1 8.6 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.6 8.0 8.6


2011 0 3

2012 84 327 3.9 1 12 10 62 6.2 0 55 4

122 549 4.5 3 31 24 174 7.2 1 120 10


7.2 8.1 8.5 8.6 7.2 7.7 7.7 7.9 0.0 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 8.0 7.4 6.6 8.5


2011 81 319 4 4 58 42 473 12 3 166 3

2012 76 301 4.0 4 55 40 446 11.2 3 157 4

102 428 4.2 1 71 58 376 6.5 1 150 0


8.4 10.6 10.0 8.8 10.6 9.5 9.6 0.0 10.3 8.9 9.3 9.0 10.3 10.2 8.9 10.6 9.0

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk


Upside


Woodhead does what he does as a scatty pass-catcher who ekes out more yards than you'd expect on carries. He's a near-lock for

third down duties in San Diego, and given the odds of another Ryan Mathews faceplant Woodhead could see an even bigge role as the

season goes on.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


Hillman surged into the lead for Denver backfield duties at one point during the preseason, but now it looks like a full-blown committee

with Hillman's fumble-itis pushing him to the back of the line.

Weekly

Scoring

DID NOT PLAY

Danny Woodhead #4/

Cuff


Points

Ronnie Hillman #4/

Cuff


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Broncos System Risk

Upside


Pierce is a powerful, violent runner who will see an uptick in carries as Ray Rice does even more heavy-lifting in the pass game. He'd be

a borderline RB1 with Rice out, and is a must-have handcuff for Rice owners who can managed some decent flex totals even when Rice

is healthy.

Weekly

Scoring

Bernard Pierce #4/

Cuff


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Ravens DID NOT PLAY System Risk

Upside


Bryce Brown had a scintillating three-game stretch after LeSean McCoy went down in 2012, but fumbles and a tendency to bounce

every run outside brought him back to Earth. Brown's ability to rip off yards in chunks make him an intriguing RB4 in his own right

given the volume of carries available in Chip Kelly's offense. If you own LeSean McCoy, grab this man.

Weekly

Scoring

Bryce Brown #4/

Cuff


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Eagles DID NOT PLAY System Risk

31


2011 0 2

2012 10 54 5.4 0 4 3 16 5.3 0 10 4

132 606 4.6 4 29 18 143 7.9 0 117 9


0.0 7.6 7.0 6.4 7.5 6.4 7.0 7.2 7.8 7.6 0.0 6.9 6.4 7.5 7.9 6.8 7.2


2011 57 205 3.6 1 27 21 188 7.0 1 72 3

2012 94 362 3.9 1 59 53 402 7.6 1 141 4

100 413 4.2 2 45 36 286 7.9 1 124 10


8.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.3 0.0 7.4 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.4 8.4 8.1 7.6 8.3 6.7 7.7


2011 0 3

2012 211 814 3.9 2 27 17 152 8.9 1 132 3

126 540 4.3 4 18 32 95 3.0 0 119 9


8.5 7.2 6.6 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.0 0.0 6.5 7.0 8.0 7.6 8.0 7.8 6.5 7.2 7.6


2011 0 3

2012 0 4

63 329 5.2 1 26 20 181 9.0 1 83 11


5.1 4.5 5.3 4.6 5.3 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.9 5.2 5.1 0.0 5.6 4.5 5.6 5.3 5.0

Upside


If every #1 running back went down in the first game of the 2013 season, Christine Michael would be a good bet to end the season as

the #1 Fantasy running back. A tremendous blend of speed and power with above-average wiggle, Michael will caddy for Marshawn

Lynch out of the gate but could explode if given the opportunity. Lynch owners who don't grab this guy in the 12th are playing with

fire.

Weekly

Scoring

Weekly

Scoring

Christine Michael #4/

Cuff


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk


Upside


Ballard is a plodder, but anyone who could gain good yardage against good SEC defenses while playing on a bad SEC team can't be

totally discounted. He'll need Ahmad Bradshaw's feet to betray him again before amassing any real fantasy value, however.

Weekly

Scoring

Jacquizz Rodgers #4/

Cuff


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Falcons System Risk

Upside


Pead lost out to Darryl Richardson for lead back duties, but Richardson doesn't seem like the type to lock up a job and throw away the

key for an entire season. Pead is worth a late-round stash in the hopes that he'll carve out a larger role as the season goes on.

Weekly

Scoring

Isaiah Pead #4/

Cuff


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Rams System Risk

Vick Ballard #4/

Cuff


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Colts System Risk

Upside


Rodgers is a speedy scatback who makes things happen when he catches the ball…and not so much when he runs it. He's moderately

overhyped this season - if the Falcons weren't willing to give him more run with an oaf like Michael Turner submarining their offense

last year, what are they going to give him now that a better lead back is in town?

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

32


2011 142 761 5.4 4 61 47 413 6.8 1 194 3

2012 93 336 3.6 1 23 17 157 9.2 1 78 4

102 458 4.5 3 33 23 236 10.3 1 116 9


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 8.6 9.5 8.1 8.9 8.9 8.6 10.0 8.8 10.0 9.0


2011 0 3

2012 110 410 3.7 2 23 19 244 12.8 0 96 2

127 527 4.2 3 16 9 98 10.9 1 95 8


8.6 8.3 7.7 7.8 0.0 5.1 5.1 6.1 5.1 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.2 8.0


2011 253 1054 4.2 6 41 30 211 5.1 0 193 4

2012 276 1063 3.9 8 30 19 151 7.9 0 188 3

102 445 4.4 6 15 8 35 5.9 0 92 10


4.9 4.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.6 0.0 4.6 5.3 5.4 5.9 5.4 4.7 5.2 5.3 9.0


2011 112 473 4.2 2 26 16 195 7.5 0 95 3

2012 72 371 5.2 2 12 9 60 6.7 0 64 4

103 464 4.5 3 18 15 104 6.9 1 96 9


5.9 5.9 6.2 5.6 5.2 6.1 6.4 6.1 0.0 5.8 6.5 6.2 5.6 5.9 5.6 6.2 9.0

Steelers System Risk

Upside


Achilles surgery is never a pleasant prospect, but Kendall Hunter appears to be back at close to full strength and locked into an 8-10

carry role in San Francisco with the first claim on lead-back duties should harm befall Frank Gore.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


With Le'Veon Bell out, Redman should be Pittsburgh's "lead" back through their Week 5 bye. That "lead" gets quotes because

everyone from Jon Dwyer to Stephens-Howling to Felix F. Jones could also be in the mix, and it's not a promising situation. Once Bell is

back, he'll quickly put a hammerlock on available carries.

Weekly

Scoring

Kendall Hunter #4/

Cuff


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

49ers System Risk

Upside


In one of the offseason's more bizarre signings, the Titans handed Shonn Greene $10 million to back up their $40 million starter. It's

hard to say how things will shake out, but if Greene fulfills his intended goal-line role behind an imrpoved OL there may be a little value

to be mined.

Weekly

Scoring

Shonn Greene #4/

Cuff


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Titans System Risk

Isaac Redman #4/

Cuff


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

DID NOT PLAY


Upside


Stewart's troublesome ankles will cost him the first six games of the season. Then, he'll come back and put together a couple of solid

outings. Then, something else will go wrong. We've seen this one.

Weekly

Scoring

Jonathan Stewart #4/

Cuff


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

33


2011 256 977 3.8 7 47 37 418 8.9 1 225 3

2012 114 411 3.6 5 11 9 83 9.2 0 88 3

122 489 4.0 6 11 8 44 5.5 0 97 9


6.1 5.8 5.8 6.2 6.6 6.5 6.1 0.0 6.0 6.2 5.8 5.5 5.8 5.9 5.9 7.0 9.0


2011 170 934 5.5 6 50 39 442 8.8 0 213 3

2012 115 437 3.8 3 42 34 217 6.4 1 123 3

107 420 3.9 4 20 16 92 5.7 0 91 8


6.1 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.1 7.0 6.2 6.2 6.2 0.0 6.7 6.0 6.6 6.1 9.0

Others Receiving Votes

Stepfan Taylor (ARI/R)

Brandon Jackson (CLE)

Toby Gerhart (MIN)

Bilal Powell (NYJ)

LaMichael James (SF)

Daniel Thomas (MIA)

Knile Davis (KC/R)

Upside


At 32, Jackson may have very little left in the tank. He's worth stashing late for Spiller owners, but his hard-charging 2011 season is a

distant, distant memory.

Weekly

Scoring

Bills System Risk

Upside


Bush's role as a goal-line back and occasional between-the-tackles hammer doesn't offer a ton of utility - and it may offer even less

now that Marc Trestman seems inclined to allow Matt Forte to try his hand inside the 5 yard line.

Weekly

Scoring

Michael Bush #4/

Cuff


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Bears System Risk

Fred Jackson #4/

Cuff


Points

Risk/Reward

RB Player Risk

Roy Helu (WAS)

The clear #2 behind Alfred Morris, Helu is a must-have for Morris owners and an interesting late-round lotto

ticket for others.

Joique Bell (DET) Bell will get the nod if Reggie Bush goes down, and could see enough change-of-pace carries to give him some

flex value in deep leagues.

Could actually be the favorite to start Game One, and will have a role as long as Montee Ball is iffy in pass pro

and Ronnie Hillman keeps fumbling.

With Rashard Mendenhall's balky knee, Taylor could be in line for substantive carries sooner rather than later.

Too bad he wouldn't be running behind a more substantive line.

The clear backup to Trent Richardson - he doesn't offer much upside, but Richardson's owners should consider

him in the 15th round or so.

The Vikings run game would fall off a cliff without AP, but Gerhart could at least be an iffy flex play if disaster

strikes.

Chris Ivory can't stay healthy, and the Jets will try to run as often as they can to mask their QB woes.Franklin has been tremendously unimpressive in the preseason, but after the loss of DuJuan Harris to injury he's

as good a bet as any to step in should Eddie Lacy go down.

Knowshon Moreno

(DEN)

Johnathan Franklin

(GB/R)

James is a waterbug who'll get some change of pace/jet sweep carries, but is well behind Kendall Hunter in the

pecking order.

Thomas looks to have little in the way of skill, but Dolphins' GM Jeff Ireland keeps pimping him for a role in the

backfield. He's a handcuff for Miller, but won't do much on his own.

Davis got amazingly little out of his size and speed in college, but he's the #2 back in KC and Jamaal Charles' foot

strain makes him worth a look.

WIDE RECEIVERS

34

35

Target Rec Yard YPA TD 5

2011 158 96 1,681 10.6 16 360 5

2012 204 122 1,964 9.6 5 348 3

172 108 1,704 9.9 13 357 13


23.9 20.2 23.5 20.1 21.8 20.7 22.5 23.8 1.0 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.8 26.4 22.4 23.4 23.9

Target Rec Yard YPA TD 42011 103 63 928 9.0 9 210 42012 138 92 1,382 10.0 12 302 4

143 97 1,469 10.3 13 322 12


19.6 19.5 18.4 20.7 18.7 19.7 22.2 21.1 20.0 21.2 0.0 19.6 23.5 16.7 18.2 19.7 22.2


2011 70 32 551 7.9 4 111 4

2012 141 94 1,442 10.2 10 298 3

132 88 1,385 10.5 11 293 12


16.6 17.4 20.9 20.3 17.7 20.8 18.4 17.2 0.0 18.4 17.3 17.7 17.3 18.8 18.4 14.6 20.9


2011 115 65 1,057 9.2 7 213 4

2012 164 97 1,350 8.2 11 298 4

155 95 1,311 8.4 11 292 13


16.3 16.7 17.8 16.9 19.5 21.9 20.1 16.7 19.6 18.3 16.9 0.0 20.2 19.9 16.7 19.6 18.3

Upside


Green’s mix of size, speed, leaping ability and timing saw him outrun corners on fly routes and out-jump safeties in the red zone

while also zipping away from pursuers on bubble screens and slants. The 'third year receiver leap' would put Green in the

stratosphere, but a merely adequate QB combined with increased competition for targets combine to lower his ceiling a tad. His

schedule - particularly in the first half of the season - does him no favors either.

Weekly

Scoring

Broncos System Risk

A.J. Green Top

Tier

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward

Wide Receiver Player Risk

Bengals System Risk

Upside


Thomas was able to make some hay in 2011 with the Tim Tebow Random Deep Ball Generator, but crushed the AFC West once a

legitimate QB arrived on the scene. No one on the team - and few guys in the league - can replicate Thomas' role as a vertical

threat, so he's the least likely Bronco to have his opportunities curtailed with Wes Welker's arrival. Increased pace should make

up for most of his lost targets, and a laughable slate of pass defenses have him primed for another massive campaign.

Weekly

Scoring

Risk/Reward

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Receiving Total

Points

Top

Tier

The most dominating player in the league, Calvin Johnson enjoys a dynamic unlike any other receiver - Stafford will challenge any

coverage on throws to Johnson, and Johnson rewards him with leaping grabs that absolutely demoralize the defense. Assuming it

doesn't take Stafford half a season to remember Megatron's dominance this time, he should at least challenge last year's insane

numbers while easily doubling that TD total. Once the top tier backs are gone, Johnson is a great choice.

Calvin Johnson

Wide Receiver

Upside


The question of whether Dez Bryant's game could catch up to his physical gifts had been thrown around Dallas more or less since

he came off the board in the 2010 Draft. If the back half of the 2012 season is any indication, the answer is a resounding "yes".

An absurd 50/879/10 line over the final eight games served notice to the league that playtime is over, and that Bryant's route-

running and mental acuity in the offense was finally up to snuff. The sky is the limit in 2013.

Weekly

Scoring

Demaryius Thomas Top

Tier

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Dez Bryant Top

TierReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward

Wide Receiver Player RiskCowboys System Risk

Lions

2013 Projections:

Weekly

Scoring

36


2011 141 81 1,214 8.6 6 238 4

2012 192 118 1,508 7.9 11 335 3

156 105 1,294 8.3 10 295 12


17.6 18.8 15.9 19.8 19.8 19.0 18.5 0.0 17.0 19.8 17.0 17.3 18.8 18.7 16.2 20.8 17.0


2011 94 54 959 10.2 8 198 4

2012 128 79 1,198 9.4 10 259 4

135 84 1,281 9.4 12 284 13


20.0 17.4 18.6 19.5 16.1 0.0 16.4 15.9 18.6 15.1 16.4 20.0 21.2 17.2 18.7 17.8 18.6


2011 51 33 492 9.6 2 94 5

2012 162 112 1,598 9.9 4 296 3

138 98 1,357 9.8 7 276 12


17.7 18.1 15.6 13.7 16.1 15.8 16.2 0.0 17.7 14.4 20.2 20.1 17.6 20.1 17.7 16.0 18.1


2011 154 80 1,411 9.2 8 269 3

2012 156 71 798 5.1 4 175 4

148 95 1,229 8.3 10 278 12


16.6 18.5 19.1 15.6 15.1 17.5 14.4 18.2 0.0 14.8 20.7 18.3 20.0 16.6 19.1 14.4 17.5


Larry Fitzgerald would have carried Carson Palmer from Oakland to Phoenix on his back in order to get a real NFL QB back in the

desert. Fitzy's still got plenty in the tank, and he'll manage elite production most games Palmer is under center. Given the

dubious quality of the Cards' OL, however, the question is how many games a 34-year old Palmer will BE under center - because if

he goes down things get ugly in a hurry. The recent loss of rookie G Jonathan Cooper does nothing to improve the situation.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


There are concerns that Andre Johnson may be slowing down a tad. If he is, though, a 112-catch, near-1600-yard season is a

funny way of showing it. Dr. 'Dre still offers a rare blend of size, body control and route-running precision that lets him answer

every question the defense throws his way. A legitimate second option in DeAndre Hopkins will cut into Johnson's target totals,

but the resulting increase in offensive efficiency and decrease in double-teams should balance the scales.

Weekly

Scoring


Upside


Julio Jones takes a back seat to no one in sheer talent, and the shift to a more up-tempo attack saw him post strong numbers in

2012. However, the secondaries of the NFC South won't prove quite as pathetic this season, and a tough trip through the NFC

West will also test the Falcons' ability to thrive with a shaky RT situation. Jones is still a great option, but a tough slate pushes him

to the bottom of the Top Tier.

Weekly

Scoring

Andre Johnson #1

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Texans System Risk

Upside

Julio Jones Top

Tier

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Falcons System Risk

Larry Fitzgerald #1

WR

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Upside


Marshall was basically the blanket to Jay Cutler's Linus last season, and he saw the ball thrown his way even when blanketed with

double coverage. New head coach Marc Trestman and a potentially competent OL should make the Bears' O more effective

overall, but the new system could dial Marshall's targets back to a slightly more sane range. That, his lack of vertical dominance

and some late-breaking concerns about his recovery from hip surgery drop him a bit, but Marshall should still be an elite option to

head your WR corps.

Weekly

Scoring

Brandon Marshall Top

TierReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Bears System Risk

37


2011 31 25 375 12.1 1 69 4

2012 104 80 954 9.2 8 223 3

125 94 1,116 8.9 9 273 11


16.3 16.6 15.8 0.0 17.8 15.3 16.3 18.8 16.2 17.8 17.8 18.8 17.8 16.0 16.8 16.1 16.2


2011 121 82 1,536 12.7 9 290 4

2012 143 86 1,092 7.6 10 255 2

138 88 1,201 8.7 9 262 10


16.2 15.2 15.7 16.2 17.3 15.7 17.6 17.3 0.0 19.6 14.3 16.2 16.1 17.3 13.0 16.7 16.1


2011 115 60 1,106 9.6 9 225 3

2012 147 72 1,384 9.4 8 258 3

136 78 1,302 9.6 10 268 10


14.7 18.2 17.7 14.4 0.0 19.1 17.4 16.6 13.8 16.9 17.4 17.7 16.6 19.3 16.7 15.9 18.2


2011 179 100 1,296 7.2 8 278 4

2012 143 92 1,351 9.4 10 287 4

133 87 1,238 9.3 7 252 12


17.6 15.4 15.4 16.6 16.3 0.0 16.0 15.6 15.6 12.9 16.0 17.6 16.6 14.7 15.9 15.2 15.6

Upside


Mr. Dependability turned in another rock-solid campaign in 2012, actually increasing his production despite ceding targets to

Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. We're not predicting the end of the line for White by any means, but the continued ascendance

of Jones combined with a far tougher schedule decreases the odds of another #1 WR season. He's still a tremendousply

productive player, however, and for that reason sits atop the #2 WR tier.

Weekly

Scoring

Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Falcons System Risk

Jackson's size, speed, leaping ability and ball skills helped him get off to a high-flying start last season. However, his stats took a

nosedive in the second half as QB Josh Freeman went through a full-blown existential crisis. A bounce-back from Freeman isn't a

certainty, but at least Jackson offers a massive passing window for a QB trying to regain his footing. He'll get moved around

more this season to take advantage of matchups, and his downfield upside keeps him in the #1 wideout tier.

Weekly

Scoring

Vincent Jackson #1

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Buccaneers System Risk

Roddy White #2

WR

Receiving

Upside


Aaron Rodgers' favorite target is a fine thing to be, and 3rd year wideout Randall Cobb may be just that in 2013. He's posted a

frankly absurd 78% Catch Rate in his first two seasons with Rodgers, and staying close to that on a larger base of targets will

make him a PPR machine. If Green Bay stays committed to creative slot and backfield alignments to get Cobb favorable

matchups, he'll be tough to stop with the game's best QB delivering the ball. NOTE: Projected total points include 130 rushing

yards.

Weekly

Scoring

Victor Cruz #1

WR

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Giants System Risk

Upside


Upside


The repeated 70-yard fluke scores of 2011 were tougher to come by last season, but Cruz still managed a strong season even

given amidst the Giant's 2012 travails. Eli Manning is capable of more than he showed last year, and Cruz remains virtually

matchup-proof as he operates out of the slot on most plays. He lacks the pure upside of a some guys ahead of him on this list,

but he's a safe and consistent choice as a #1 wideout.

Weekly

Scoring

Randall Cobb #1

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Packers System Risk

38


2011 107 80 1,143 10.7 8 242 4

2012 130 83 1,154 8.9 10 258 3

120 80 1,137 9.5 9 248 9


16.7 14.3 13.9 17.1 14.6 17.0 0.0 18.5 14.1 16.5 16.1 16.7 13.2 16.2 15.2 16.2 14.3


2011 142 81 1,159 8.2 5 227 3

2012 114 59 797 7.0 3 157 3

143 88 1,169 8.2 8 252 10


18.2 15.5 17.2 15.2 16.4 18.3 12.8 13.4 17.4 0.0 14.5 16.1 14.5 15.3 18.3 16.1 16.1


2011 114 85 689 6.0 3 172 5

2012 101 63 666 6.6 3 148 3

136 92 1,104 8.1 7 245 11


18.5 14.1 14.3 16.2 15.6 17.5 14.1 16.6 14.1 0.0 15.9 15.4 13.6 14.3 16.6 15.0 18.5


2011 134 70 947 7.1 6 201 4

2012 68 45 644 9.5 4 133 4

113 79 1,072 9.5 10 246 10


17.0 13.9 15.4 18.0 0.0 14.8 12.8 14.3 15.5 15.3 17.0 14.9 15.8 14.5 15.5 14.8 15.8

Player Risk

Saints System Risk

Upside


Pierre Garcon looked like he was ready to make a season's worth of beautiful music with RGIII before a balky toe sabotaged

things, costing Garcon nearly half the season. His late-season productivity (33 catches and 3 TDs in the last six games) augurs

well for 2013, and he's far and away the #1 target in the Redskins' air attack. The toe is still a concern, but he's looked great in

the preseason and his upside makes him a strong option as a #2 WR.

Weekly

Scoring

Risk/Reward

Wide Receiver

Upside


Solve for the value of a receiver where n = number of games played, receptions = n*6, and n < 16. Perhaps substantially < 16.

That's the quandary with Amendola, who should provide a reasonable facsimile of Wes Welker in every game he plays.

Unfortunately, when you're catching that many balls over the middle you need to know how to get down so you can pop back up.

Amendola lacks Welker's savvy in that regard - meaning that your personal guess on n has a lot to do with how he's valued.

Weekly

Scoring

Pierre Garcon #2

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Redskins System Risk

Upside


A lot of people set up Nativity scenes over the holidays - Dwayne Bowe and Larry Fitzerald put together a Book of Revelations

diorama with Cassell, Quinn, Skelton and Lindley as the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. Salvation is on the horizon with the

arrival of Alex Smith - he's merely competent, but competent plus pass-happy Andy Reid equals a vast increase in Bowe's

productivity. Halleleuah!

Weekly

Scoring

Danny Amendola #2

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward



Dwayne Bowe #2

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Chiefs System Risk

Upside


Marques Colston has headlined the Saints' receiving corps for several years now, and the former small-school TE and seventh-

round draft choice has used great size, outstanding hands, tremendous body control and deceptive speed to thrive as a complete

threat. His production can be a bit spiky, though, and he's apparently still having some foot problems in the latter part of

August. Make your risk/reward decision carefully.

Weekly

Scoring

Marques Colston #2

WRReceiving Total

Points

39


2011 132 75 960 7.3 4 195 4

2012 195 106 1,355 6.9 5 272 3

141 85 1,047 7.4 7 232 10


17.4 14.8 14.3 16.9 11.8 15.7 13.8 0.0 12.1 13.6 15.6 12.4 15.6 13.9 12.1 14.4 16.9


2011 128 76 1,192 9.3 7 237 4

2012 100 53 692 6.9 3 140 2

128 81 1,088 8.5 8 237 8


14.8 13.9 14.6 14.5 16.5 12.4 14.9 16.5 0.0 17.5 13.5 14.8 14.7 15.4 11.9 15.7 14.7


2011 61 45 582 9.5 2 115 4

2012 73 49 745 10.2 7 166 4

109 77 1,104 10.1 8 235 11


5.0 14.4 14.2 0.0 14.7 13.7 12.6 14.6 12.2 16.2 15.0 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.1 12.4 12.2


2011 118 86 848 7.2 7 213 4

2012 175 118 1,354 7.7 6 289 3

125 91 987 7.9 7 232 12


12.4 15.0 16.5 14.5 13.6 15.2 14.6 13.5 0.0 15.1 14.0 14.9 14.0 14.9 15.1 12.8 16.5

Risk/Reward


Broncos System Risk

Upside


Welker's arrival in Denver has been hyped to the moon, but it will be important to properly set expectations when valuing him in

your draft. He's a tremendously skilled and productive guy, but as a short/intermediate route runner with secretly iffy hands he

is massively target-dependent. And even with the Broncos going up-tempo, there will be only so many targets to go around -

cracking 130 will be tough, and the math from there makes him a mid-range #2 WR.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


Nelson's size, speed, great hands and tremendous body control basically mean he's whenever he's on the field for a QB with

Aaron Rodgers' zip and deft touch. Staying on the field has proved a tad troublesome, though, and a preseason knee scope has

his Week One status in doubt. There's no doubting his upside, but injury concerns and the challenges of every-week consistency

in Green Bay's target-rich attack push Nelson down the list.

Weekly

Scoring

Hakeem Nicks #2

WR Player Risk

Giants System Risk

Reggie Wayne #2

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward

Wide Receiver

Total

PointsRisk/Reward

Wide Receiver

Upside

2013 Projections:

Jordy Nelson #2

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Packers System Risk

Receiving

R/R Total

Hakeem Nicked has joined The Big Always Hurt and No-show Moreno in the Pantheon of Awesome Nicknames for Injury-Prone

Athletes. A prodigious talent, Nicks can't string 16 healthy games together and his repetitive lower body injuries are a cause for

serious concern. When he's on, though, he's a great weapon who becomes a very tempting target in the 5th round. Make use of

the rarely seen WR handcuff and grab Rueben Randle, who could step up admirably when Nicks goes down.

Weekly

Scoring

Player Risk

Colts System Risk

Upside


Andrew Luck directed an absolute hail of footballs at Reggie Wayne in 2012, and Wayne responded with a turn-back-the-clock

season that put him among the elite at his position. He won't see 195 targets again, and in frequent 2-TE sets he won't have the

move-around flexibility to find attractive matchups that he enjoyed last season. But even if Indy's new OC doesn't bend over

backwards to make Wayne the full focus of the air attack, he's still the favorite target of a very talented QB.

Weekly

Scoring

Wes Welker #2

WRReceiving Total

Points

40


2011 124 69 1,108 8.9 2 192 4

2012 106 66 787 7.4 5 175 3

132 83 1,006 7.7 7 226 10


15.5 13.8 12.9 14.7 0.0 12.5 13.3 17.2 15.1 16.4 15.5 12.6 13.3 14.7 13.8 13.3 12.6


2011 114 72 1,193 10.5 8 239 3

2012 119 64 838 7.0 8 196 4

123 72 1,079 8.8 9 234 10


13.1 15.7 15.7 16.1 13.8 0.0 17.1 15.6 14.8 13.2 15.7 14.9 13.0 13.0 15.6 17.1 13.0


2011 95 50 841 8.9 7 176 4

2012 110 49 855 7.8 8 183 4

132 72 1,051 8.0 9 232 11


14.8 13.7 13.1 17.8 15.9 14.5 13.5 0.0 13.7 15.0 12.6 13.5 13.5 15.9 16.8 15.9 15.0


2011 94 44 612 6.5 8 153 4

2012 122 85 1,064 8.7 13 269 3

105 73 926 8.8 9 219 11


12.8 14.1 15.6 14.7 12.8 15.2 13.5 13.1 0.0 13.5 12.5 13.6 12.5 14.0 13.5 12.0 15.6

Wide Receiver

#2

WR


While Demaryius Thomas headlined Denver's 2012 air attack, Eric Decker had an outstanding season in his own right and battled

James Jones for the league lead in receiving TDs. Like Jones, Decker could be hard-pressed to repeat those touchdown numbers

and also faces the prospect of losing some targets to Wes Welker. Don't get too down on Decker, though - size, speed, an elite

QB and a Charmin-soft schedule keep him firmly in the #2 WR ranks.

Weekly

Scoring

Mike Wallace #2

WR

Mike Wallace is a deep ball receiver. Ryan Tannehill has a deep ball arm. Do the Dolphins have a deep ball Left Tackle?

Tannehill's iffy prospects of completing too many seven step drops unmolested could put a damper on Wallace's fantasy outlook,

but if Miami can keep him upright then he should be able to do plenty of business with his fleet-footed and highly-compensated

new toy.

Weekly

Scoring

Receiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Upside


With the loss of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta, Torrey Smith and Ray Rice will see a ton of targets as the foci of the Ravens' air

attack. While Smith's vertical chops are solid, he's still developing as an all-around route runner and faces a potentially

murderous slate of opposing corners - both factors that could curtail his production in his first season as The Man in Baltimore.

Weekly

Scoring

Eric Decker

Broncos System Risk

Upside

Receiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward

Wide Receiver

Player Risk

Ravens System Risk

Upside


With Mike Wallace taking his talents to South Beach, Antonio Brown takes over the 'X' receiver role in the Steeler offense.

Injuries to Big Ben and to Brown himself put a lid on his 2012 totals, but there's a lot of bounce-back potential for 2013. To

realize it, though, the Steelers' OL will need to show a lot more than they've shown thusfar in the preseason. If they can't, even

Roethlisberger's heroics won't make more than a mid-range #2 WR out of his #1 target.

Weekly

Scoring

Player Risk

Dolphins System Risk

Upside


Torrey Smith #2

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward

Antonio Brown #2

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward



41


2011 0 2

2012 105 55 979 9.3 7 195 4

121 68 1,069 8.8 9 229 9


14.7 17.7 12.0 15.6 13.9 14.0 15.6 14.2 0.0 15.9 12.6 12.4 14.0 12.4 16.9 15.9 15.6


2011 104 58 961 9.2 4 178 3

2012 87 45 700 8.0 2 127 4

115 68 1,004 8.7 9 223 10


14.0 15.1 13.8 13.2 14.3 12.3 14.1 14.3 16.7 12.9 14.0 0.0 11.9 15.0 14.2 12.5 14.1


2011 0 3

2012 92 50 805 8.8 5 161 4

102 65 952 9.3 8 208 9


0.0 0.0 15.7 14.7 17.5 16.5 14.2 15.3 14.2 0.0 14.7 13.3 18.3 16.1 13.1 13.3 13.3


2011 58 35 382 6.6 3 91 3

2012 67 45 688 10.3 7 156 4

97 65 960 9.9 9 215 11


13.7 13.1 16.4 11.5 14.4 14.8 11.7 12.9 12.1 14.4 14.0 0.0 14.8 13.1 13.7 11.7 12.9

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

Browns System Risk

Upside


There were few bigger fantasy surprises in 2012 than Cecil Shorts, who overcame both anonymity and some dreadful

quarterbacking to post some impressive per-game numbers. While flash-in-the-pan WRs are far from unheard of, Shorts didn't

rely on fluky TDs and showed strongly in offseason work. The Jags' QB situation isn't going to get WORSE, and could actually

improve simply due to improvements along the OL. With Justin Blackmon an iffy proposition, Shorts will reap the benefits.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


Tate's most memorable 2012 moment was the Inaccurate Reception against the Pack in Week Four, but don't forget that he's got

a lot of downfield savvy and plays with one of the league's best deep-ball QBs. Seattle will line up in a host of formations this

season, and Tate figures to be on the field for all of them. With Harvin out and Sidney Rice's health in its typically dubious state,

Tate figures to garner plenty of high-value targets even in the Seahawks' run-heavy offense.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


Fresh off a drug suspension from Baylor, Gordon breathed life into a moribund passing game as a rookie and had little trouble

taking the top off of defenses. Unfortunately he also took the top off a codeine bottle once too often in the offseason and is

opening things up with a two-game suspension. While his head is in question, his talent isn't - let your starters handle the first

couple of weeks, and take him as a #3 WR with considerable upside in the Browns' new vertical offense.

Weekly

Scoring

Golden Tate #3

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward



Josh Gordon #3

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Weekly

Scoring

Cecil Shorts #2

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Jaguars System Risk

DeSean Jackson #2

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Eagles System Risk

Upside


Jackson was a massive disappointment following his 2012 holdout and subsequent contract heist. Now Chip Kelly is attempting

to apply his Midas touch to the Eagles' offense, and the returns have been fairly promising thusfar. Jackson has had a strong

showing in camp, and he's far and away the #1 focus of Philly's air attack. Mike Vick's arm is still live, and while consistency will be

an issue DJax can win you some games as a home run-hitting #2.

42


2011 0 3

2012 90 50 861 9.6 7 178 5

104 66 1,000 9.6 8 214 11


15.9 12.9 13.1 15.5 10.2 13.7 12.6 0.0 12.2 12.8 14.3 13.0 14.3 13.1 12.2 12.4 15.5


2011 124 65 771 6.2 3 160 3

2012 126 63 996 7.9 9 217 4

123 69 1,020 8.3 8 219 10


13.8 14.5 14.1 13.3 0.0 15.2 14.1 13.5 11.0 13.8 14.1 14.1 13.5 14.1 12.9 12.6 14.5


2011 85 50 692 8.1 5 149 2

2012 98 64 784 8.0 14 226 4

100 68 857 8.6 8 201 9


12.6 12.5 12.3 0.0 13.0 11.9 12.6 13.3 10.6 14.1 12.8 13.3 13.0 13.1 12.3 11.8 10.6


2011 129 79 1,394 10.8 7 260 4

2012 138 73 1,174 8.5 4 214 3

118 69 1,058 9.0 6 211 10


11.0 15.4 13.9 0.0 13.0 13.8 12.7 11.9 14.2 13.0 14.1 13.8 11.9 14.6 11.7 14.6 14.2

DID NOT PLAY

James Jones #3

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Mike A. Williams #3

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


T.Y. Hilton #3

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward

Wide Receiver

Buccaneers System Risk

Upside


We speculated that Williams could be a casualty of Greg Schiano's "my way or the highway" approach, but instead Williams

accepted coaching and had a bounceback campaign that cashed in on the promise of his strong rookie season. He's a big,

talented deep threat who sees plenty of single coverage thanks to Vincent Jackson, and outside of those two there just aren't too

many other places for Josh Freeman to go with the ball.

Weekly

Scoring

Packers System Risk

Upside


Upside


Though he's getting up there in years, Smith still has the speed to get deep and the toughness and body control to haul in some

crazy grabs. Newton isn't the world's most efficient QB, but if he carries forward his success from the latter part of 2012 he'll

make Smith a very solid #3WR with #2 upside.

Weekly

Scoring

Player Risk

Colts System Risk

Upside


T.Y. Hilton is a classic case of asking yourself what you want out of your #3 wideout. The move away from the Bruce Arians deep-

ball offense and the bizarre presence of Darius Heyward-Bey at #2 on the depth chart makes consistent production a question

mark. However, if you need a guy who can put up big points in certain weeks he's a great option - he SHOULD beat out DHB

sooner rather than later, and matchups against some stank secondaries mean juicy spot start opportunities.

Weekly

Scoring

"Never pay for last year's receiving TDs" is a fantasy football mantra for good reason - the repeatability of outlier TD years is an

extremely dicey propsition. With that said, there's still a lot to like about James Jones. He's got great long-ball speed, and has

cleaned up the precision of his routes to win Aaron Rodgers' trust all over the field and particularly in the red zone. He's a #3WR

with upside, but missed time by any of Green Bay's other weapons will see him zoom up the charts.

Weekly

Scoring

Steve L. Smith #3

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward



43


2011 0 3

2012 0 4

97 68 717 7.4 4 206 11


12.8 12.8 13.4 13.1 15.3 12.2 13.0 10.9 14.5 13.8 0.0 12.9 13.1 12.8 13.9 11.8 10.9


2011 40 19 329 8.2 2 64 3

2012 0 2

123 76 946 7.7 6 207 8


11.4 13.6 13.4 12.2 14.9 12.8 14.5 0.0 12.5 11.8 12.4 12.3 12.3 13.4 11.8 14.9 12.3


2011 134 76 1,004 7.5 7 218 3

2012 148 79 1,046 7.1 6 220 2

122 75 906 7.4 7 207 8


14.3 12.9 11.4 12.2 11.6 12.6 13.8 13.9 13.3 11.4 11.4 0.0 13.2 11.6 15.4 13.8 14.3


2011 26 17 289 11.1 3 64 3

2012 90 45 589 6.5 4 128 3

112 63 886 7.9 8 199 8


11.0 10.6 13.4 11.0 12.6 11.0 12.2 0.0 11.9 15.2 13.4 15.2 13.4 12.1 10.8 15.2 10.6

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY


When a coach who wants to win every game 13-10 trades up in the first round for a receiver, it makes one sit up and take notice.

What you'll notice is that Tavon Austin not only has blazing speed, but a wealth of open-field shake and a reasonable amount of

route-running polish. Austin will get the ball in a variety of ways, but the Rams aren't the Saints - the total volume of

opportunities could hold him back off the bat. NOTE: Projected points total includes 300 rushing yards and two rushing TDs.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


Kenny Britt has great potential, and always will.

Weekly

Scoring

Bills System Risk

Upside


"Someone has to catch the balls" isn't high-end Fantasy analysis, but let's face it - SOMEBODY has to catch the balls in San Diego.

And that somebody is very likely to be Vincent Brown. He's frequently turned heads in his young career when healthy, and his

game is far better suited to the Chargers' new short-passing attack than Malcom Floyd's. The run game will disappoint and the

Chargers will be behind - often - setting up a target-rich environment for Brown to exploit.

Weekly

Scoring

Kenny Britt #3

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Titans System Risk

Upside


On the plus side of the ledger for Stevie Johnson, he's managed back-to-back thousand yard campaigns while enduring

quarterbacking that ranged from "so-so" to "doo-doo". He's slated to see a lot of time in the slot this year in search of favorable

matchups, and is the unquestioned #1 target in the Buffalo passing game. The downside is the prospect of even more dubious

QB work and a run-heavy scheme from Doug Marrone. Johnson will manufacture some points, but the upside is very limited.

Weekly

Scoring


Steve Johnson #3

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Vincent Brown #3

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Tavon Austin #3

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Rams System Risk

Upside

44


2011 106 57 887 8.4 3 164 3

2012 112 65 921 8.2 4 181 3

108 69 907 8.4 6 196 9


11.5 10.5 13.6 12.1 10.8 11.0 14.3 15.1 0.0 12.6 13.7 12.9 12.1 10.5 11.4 12.9 11.0


2011 115 69 1,045 9.1 7 216 4

2012 119 66 943 7.9 6 196 4

118 72 978 8.3 6 206 10


13.8 11.9 12.0 13.0 11.8 12.4 13.6 12.7 13.2 13.3 0.0 13.8 14.8 11.5 11.1 12.4 13.6


2011 101 67 949 9.4 9 216 2

2012 62 36 366 5.9 4 97 3

110 68 901 8.2 6 194 8


13.2 10.8 11.1 11.0 0.0 12.7 13.1 11.7 12.5 12.7 10.3 11.7 10.8 11.7 14.3 12.5 13.2


2011 0 2

2012 86 45 562 6.5 4 125 3

121 76 928 7.7 7 211 8


12.8 13.1 14.6 13.4 13.0 13.1 10.7 13.2 0.0 12.1 15.4 13.6 14.9 12.8 14.2 10.7 13.1

DID NOT PLAY

Player Risk

49ers System Risk

Upside


Boldin's days of running past the opposition are long gone - if they ever existed to begin with. However, he's still a big, tough and

savvy target who will be a reliable chain-mover for Colin Kaepernick. He should see a lot of favorable slot matchups and will be

one of Kaep's favorite targets along with Vernon Davis, but this is not a high-octane passing offense - draft accordingly.

Weekly

Scoring


Questions were raised about Michael Floyd's football character when he arrived in the desert last season, but by all accounts he

kept his head on straight and actually managed a decent stat line given the Cardinals' QB apocalypse. His offseason work with

legendary workout warrior Larry Fitzgerald shows his head is in the right place, and the addition of Carson Palmer and Bruce

Arians' deep-ball offense could make Floyd a very attractive spot play.

Weekly

Scoring

Risk/Reward



Upside

Miles Austin #4

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Cowboys System Risk

Upside


How are those hammies, Miles? It's hard to say whether Austin's perpetual tweaks are making the Cowboys' training staff earn

their money or suggest that they're stealing it, and it's also hard to say that they'll allow him to play 16 games this season. But

he still has the speed and technical proficiency to rack consistent catches when healthy, and that upside keeps him from falling

any lower. WR is deep enough that you can easily plug in another solid option during his inevitable time in the tub.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


The "pay big money to make another team's #2 WR your #1" has been a free agency pratfall dating back to the days of Alvin

Harper. Jennings was arguably Green Bay's #1, but Christian Ponder arguably shouldn't be anyone's #1. If Ponder takes a big

step forward, Jennings can garner enough quality targets to be a functional #3WR, but risks are high and Jennings has been

getting massively overdrafted in most rooms.

Weekly

Scoring

Michael Floyd #4

WRReceiving Total

Points

Greg Jennings #4

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Vikings System Risk

Anquan Boldin #4

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward

Wide Receiver

45


2011 43 22 288 6.7 2 63 4

2012 74 44 626 8.5 1 113 2

116 75 923 8.0 5 198 9


13.1 12.0 10.9 13.0 0.0 12.5 12.0 14.6 12.7 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.0 11.8 12.0 11.3 12.3


2011 92 66 763 8.3 8 190 3

2012 104 65 1,041 10.0 6 205 4

96 63 864 9.0 6 186 11


11.4 11.9 11.6 11.8 11.0 12.8 0.0 12.4 12.1 11.6 11.9 11.4 9.6 11.6 11.4 11.6 11.9


2011 0 4

2012 32 22 310 9.7 2 65 3

110 70 823 7.5 6 189 9


12.8 11.2 12.0 11.1 10.7 11.5 11.8 11.8 0.0 11.1 11.7 11.9 10.7 13.1 11.0 13.4 12.8


2011 0 2

2012 104 64 626 6.0 4 151 3

116 75 834 7.2 6 195 8


11.3 11.0 13.0 12.3 12.1 9.7 12.1 0.0 11.2 14.0 12.6 14.6 12.6 11.4 11.8 14.0 11.0

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

Lance Moore #4

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Saints System Risk

Upside


Lance Moore may be physically dwarfed by his partner in crime Marques Colston, but Moore thrives with great speed, a savvy

understanding of coverages and the ability to break routes at angles sharp enough to make Euclid stand up and applaud. He may

not match 2012's numbers and consistency can be tough to come by when Brees is spreading it around, but you can't ignore the

trusted target of such a high-end QB.

Weekly

Scoring

Weekly

Scoring

Ryan Broyles #4

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Lions System Risk

Upside


Ryan Broyles has the chance to cash in on the promise that made Titus Young a hot fantasy commodity last season - becoming

the de facto #2 option in a passing game that will throw the ball 700 times. Broyles' recovery from knee surgery has been

outstanding (or the New Normal in the post-AP world), but recent reports of soreness may mean that he's not firing on all

cylinders come Week One. Nonetheless, if he hits full stride by midseason he could produce like a PPR #2 down the stretch.

Weekly

Scoring

Emmanuel Sanders #4

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward



Upside


With Antonio Brown moving into Mike Wallace's old 'X' receiver role, Sanders becomes the 'Z' and should get plenty of love as

one of only two proven options in the Pittsburgh passing game. By many reports, Sanders has looked as good or better than his

highly-paid counterpart, and should have plenty of motivation in a contract year of his own. He's not a red zone terror by any

means, but should chip in enough chatches to be a solid backup option in PPR.

Upside


Kendall Wright is a dynamic downfield receiver who slimmed down in the offseason to further increase his explosiveness. He

should be no worse than receiver 1A in Tennessee, and could see a ton of targets if and when Kenny Britt completes his latest

pratfall. The problem is that Jake Locker very simply can't hit what he aims at, which could make consistency tough to come by.

Weekly

Scoring

Kendall Wright #4

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Titans System Risk

46


2011 0 3

2012 0 4

101 67 789 7.8 6 182 10


10.4 10.1 10.0 10.4 9.8 10.6 10.1 10.1 9.3 0.0 9.9 9.4 9.1 10.0 10.1 9.4 10.4


2011 0 2

2012 80 42 698 8.7 3 130 4

100 59 846 8.5 7 185 9


10.3 12.6 12.2 11.5 14.4 10.1 12.0 9.8 13.0 12.7 0.0 10.2 11.5 10.3 13.0 12.2 9.8


2011 0 2

2012 48 24 367 7.6 3 79 4

95 57 819 8.6 6 175 9


10.7 11.5 10.2 11.1 11.6 11.3 10.8 0.0 10.0 11.1 10.3 10.4 11.5 10.6 10.9 12.2 10.0


2011 0 3

2012 0 3

102 64 783 7.7 5 172 9


10.9 11.3 10.0 8.6 10.4 10.2 10.1 0.0 10.9 10.3 12.6 12.3 11.0 12.3 10.9 10.0 11.3

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

Kenbrell Thompkins #4

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward



Upside


Could Kenbrell Thompkins be the unknown name that sets fantasy hearts aflame in 2013? He appears to have edged out fellow

rookie Aaron Dobson for the "X" receiver role in New England, and anyone who starts for the Pats and gains Tom Brady's trust is

worth a long look. Don't go TOO overboard - even the Pats have only so many balls to go around with Amendola, Gronkowski

and Vereen all claiming their share. But if you want a latter-round flyer with big-time upside, Thompkins may fit the bill.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


The most pro-ready receiver of the 2013 draft class is already turning heads in Houston, and should step right in to be a major

component of the Texans' passing game. The volume won't be there to make Hopkins a fantasy stud off the bat, but as he gets

his feet wet he could be an attractive flex play down the stretch.

Weekly

Scoring

Bears System Risk

Upside


If Jay Cutler is willing to look at anyone besides Brandon Marshall this season, Jeffery could put up some strong showings thanks

to his height and downfield/red zone potential. A retooled OL could actually give Cutler time to make second and third reads this

year, but whether he's inclined to do so is up in the air.

Weekly

Scoring

Alshon Jeffery

DeAndre Hopkins #4

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Texans System Risk

#4

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Upside


Chris Givens is blazing fast, and that speed should let him carve out a pretty consistent deep threat role in the Rams' new-look air

attack. There's upside to be had, but a potential target fight featuring a highly drafted rookie and a high-dollar free agent TE

could mean some lean weeks, especially considering his QB has yet to really prove anything at the pro level. Take him as a #4

WR and pick your spots, though and there will be weeks where Givens leaves you smiling.

Weekly

Scoring

Chris Givens #4

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Rams System Risk

47


2011 68 43 615 9.0 1 111 3

2012 131 74 1,083 8.3 1 188 3

102 65 864 8.5 4 175 10


10.8 11.1 10.7 11.5 10.2 0.0 11.2 11.2 10.6 10.8 11.1 10.5 11.0 10.1 11.2 11.2 11.0


2011 0 3

2012 32 19 298 9.3 3 67 5

79 50 674 8.5 4 141 11


8.6 8.3 8.7 8.4 9.9 7.4 9.3 9.9 0.0 10.5 8.1 8.6 8.8 9.2 7.1 9.1 8.8


2011 58 35 382 6.6 3 91 3

2012 67 45 688 10.3 7 156 4

73 48 680 9.3 7 158 10


9.5 9.6 11.3 8.9 10.0 10.4 9.5 9.4 9.8 9.7 10.3 0.0 10.7 9.6 10.4 9.5 9.4


2011 0 2

2012 132 64 865 6.6 5 181 3

94 53 666 7.1 6 155 7


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 12.3 13.4 13.0 0.0 13.9 12.7 11.9 12.3 11.9 13.6 13.9 13.4

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

Player Risk

Seahawks

Rueben Randle #5

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward

Wide Receiver

If everything goes according to plan in New York, Rueben Randle won't be worth starting in too many games this season despite

his prodigious talent. As soon as something goes wrong with one of Hakeem Nicks' wheels, however - and something will -

Randle becomes capable of WR3 or even WR2 production. He's absolutely worth a stash as a WR4/5, and presents a rare

instance where a WR handcuff could make a ton of sense for nervous Nicks owners.

Weekly

Scoring

Sidney Rice #5

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward

Wide Receiver

Player Risk

Giants System Risk

Upside


Justin Blackmon #5

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Jaguars System Risk

Upside


Blackmon came into the league with million-dollar talent, but a ten-cent head has already landed him a four-game suspension

courtesy of the Commish. Once he's back he may serve as second fiddle to Cecil Shorts, but the Jags will still be losing a lot and

throwing a lot and their QB situation can't get worse. Blackmon's worth a stash to see if he can conjure up some late-season

magic.

Weekly

Scoring

Brian Hartline #4

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Dolphins System Risk

Upside


Siri herself couldn't give Brian Hartline directions to the end zone last season, but outside of that he developed quite a nice

rapport with rookie QB Ryan Tannehill. Mike Wallace takes over #1 duties, but with the Dolphins' TE corps in shambles there

should still be a reasonable number of targets headed Hartline's way.

System Risk

Upside


When he's healthy, Sidney Rice's game is tailor-made for Russell Wilson's deep-ball magic. Unfortunately Rice hasn't been 100%

since his magic 2009 season in Minnesota, and recent platelet injections in his knee aren't a favorable sign. If you're already solid

at receiver he's an appealing flyer, but don't go in counting Rice playing a consistent role for your team off the bat.

Weekly

Scoring

48


2011 0 4

2012 0 3

85 48 655 7.7 5 144 10


9.0 7.5 8.8 8.3 0.0 8.6 9.2 8.1 8.6 8.8 7.1 8.1 7.5 8.4 9.9 8.7 9.0


2011 0 3

2012 25 16 154 6.2 4 55 4

80 56 571 7.1 5 143 10


7.8 8.2 8.1 8.8 9.1 9.1 8.9 8.9 8.5 8.6 8.8 0.0 9.0 9.0 8.2 9.3 8.6


2011 76 33 618 8.1 5 125 2

2012 114 51 741 6.5 7 167 4

71 37 489 6.9 3 104 8


6.8 7.6 6.2 6.8 6.6 6.1 0.0 5.7 7.4 7.1 5.5 7.0 6.4 5.7 6.1 6.6 6.2


2011 0 3

2012 85 56 814 9.6 5 167 3

55 35 431 7.9 5 108 9


5.5 7.4 7.1 6.7 7.9 6.9 7.9 0.0 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.3 7.9 6.5

Upside


Floyd has shown rapport with Philip Rivers in the past, and he could get loose for a few deep TDs this year. But the shift to a

more controlled, short-passing offense - while it might save Rivers' life behind a lackluster OL - does little to jive with Floyd's

downfield talents.

Weekly

Scoring

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

Chargers DID NOT PLAY System Risk

Malcom Floyd #5

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward



Following a productive career at Temple, Sanu battled injuries for much of his rooke year before making a late-season love

connection with Andy Dalton that generated four TDs on a mere 25 targets. Fluky? Yeah, probably, and there's a lot of

competition for targets in Cincy. But if Sanu can become a reliable, chain-moving target who attracts throws in the red zone,

that's not a bad option at this point in the draft.

Weekly

Scoring

Vikings System Risk

Upside


Apparently, ex-Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley could recruit some talented wideouts - Patterson, Justin Hunter and Da'Rick

Rogers all suited up for the Vols at one point. Their lack of polish raises questions whether he could COACH wideouts, but

Patterson may be turning the corner and gaining some consistency to go with his outstanding athleticism. Ponder is a dubious

QB at best, but Patterson could become a late-season flex play on raw talent alone.

Weekly

Scoring

Mohamed Sanu #5

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Bengals System Risk

Upside

Cordarrelle

Patterson#5

WRReceiving

Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Upside


Moore has talent, and there's always the chance that the Oakland passing game could recapture some of its 2012 garbage time

magic. However, the odds are much greater that it simply ends up being hot garbage, and Moore's deep-ball proclivities are an

awful match with the rag-armed Matt Flynn or the scatter-armed Terrelle Pryor. While there are guys on the board with a shot of

earning roles in legitimate NFL offenses, it's tough to justify a flyer on Moore.

Weekly

Scoring

Denarius Moore #5

WRReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward


Raiders System Risk

49


2011 0 5

2012 0 4

97 56 698 7.2 3 144 13


9.2 8.6 9.0 8.7 8.9 8.7 8.5 9.5 8.5 8.3 9.0 0.0 8.8 8.9 10.3 8.5 9.2

Others Receiving Votes

Kenny Stills (NO/R)

Aaron Dobson (NE/R)

Jarrett Boykin (GB)

Donnie Avery (KC)

Jeremy Kerley (NYJ)

Brandon LaFell (CAR)

Keenan Allen (SD/R)

Brian Quick (STL)

Justin Hunter (TEN/R)

Brice Butler (OAK)

As long as he's even with T.Y. Hilton in the pecking order, DHB has some value. As soon as Hilton pulls

ahead, though, the 2TE-heavy nature of the offense will greatly curtail his opportunities

Fast, tough and acrobatic, Wheaton should quickly earn a role in Pittsburgh's 3-wide sets.

For the moment, Stills seems to have nailed down the old Robert Meachem/Devery Henderson deep-ball

role for New Orleans. The random TD potential puts him on the radar.

While he's behind Kenbrell Thompkins in the WR2 pecking order, if Dobson surges ahead at some point this

season he'll be a valuable commodity.

Being #4 in Green Bay can pay dividends - could be worth a late-round flier, particularly for nervous Jordy

Nelson owners.

With Jon Baldwin gone, Avery is the clear #2 option for a pass-happy Andy Reid. He's not a great fit with

Alex Smith, but may be worth a look for sheer volume.

The Jets' passing game could be an atrocity this season, but Kerley has shown some chops and is the best

thing they have.

LaFell is the clear #2 receiver in Carolina, but the #3 option behind Steve Smith and Greg Olsen.

The rookie has battled leg problems since his senior year, but there's an opportunity to carve out a

substantial role in San Diego's air attack.

A size-speed project who has fallen well behind his more polished peers, Quick could still be worth a look if

he can start to put the pieces together this season

Hunter can run and jump, but he's done little to endear himself to his coaches in his rookie year. The light

could come on at some point, but he's looking at very limited snaps unless something changes.

Markus Wheaton

(PIT/R)

Darius Heyward-Bey

(IND)

Risk/Reward


Bills System Risk

Upside


Woods' preternaturally polished route-running skills garnered plenty of attention at USC, and they've got him slotted as an

opening-day starter in Buffalo. While it's far from a high-value passing attack, his clear role and skill set make him worth a late-

round look.

Weekly

Scoring

DID NOT PLAY

DID NOT PLAY

Robert Woods #5

WRReceiving Total

Points

A size-speed guy who might be the brightest light in Oakland's shoddy receiving firmament. They gotta

throw to SOMEBODY.

TIGHT ENDS

50

51


2011 149 99 1,310 8.8 11 296 5

2012 135 85 982 7.3 9 237 4

134 89 1,069 8.0 10 256 14


16.4 16.0 16.7 14.2 13.8 18.6 0.0 14.1 17.3 17.5 15.8 16.0 16.7 14.2 13.8 18.6 16.0


2011 124 90 1,327 10.7 17 325 5

2012 79 55 790 10.0 11 200 5

86 60 861 10.0 9 200 12


0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 15.3 20.6 15.3 12.5 11.9 0.0 16.4 16.8 15.1 15.2 12.5 14.9 13.3


2011 117 79 942 8.1 5 203 4

2012 147 110 1,039 7.1 3 232 4

117 86 848 7.2 6 207 13


13.3 10.1 14.0 11.4 12.9 15.1 13.9 12.3 10.9 15.8 0.0 13.3 15.1 9.3 10.8 15.1 13.9


2011 95 67 792 8.3 6 182 4

2012 61 41 548 9.0 5 126 4

104 68 928 8.9 7 203 12


11.2 10.8 12.2 14.5 12.0 11.6 13.0 13.0 0.0 12.9 16.3 15.6 14.5 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.6

49ers System Risk

Upside


Davis is an absurd physical monster who can take over games, but who couldn't click with Colin Kaepernick once he took over the

Niners' QB job. They ironed some problems out in the playoffs, and with the loss of Michael Crabtree they'll have plenty more

chances to work out the kinks this season. Kaepernick basically has no choice but to heavily feature Davis this year, and he'll be

lining up all over the field to find favorable matchups. Considering their combined skill sets, the upside is enormous.

Weekly

Scoring

Vernon Davis Top

Tier

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward

Tight End Player Risk

Cowboys System Risk

Upside


When the going gets tough in Dallas - as it so often does behind their garbage OL - Romo looks to Witten for a bailout, and

Witten usually delivers. He won't rack up 110 targets again this year, but he's not slowing down and looks great in a thin year for

TE's. As a bonus, he faces a slate of linebackers and safeties who should provide pants-on-head coverage incompetence all the

way up until the fantasy playoffs.

Weekly

Scoring

Upside


Gronkowski is an unparalleled force of nature whenever he steps on the field for New England. But just when will that be?

Offseason back surgery makes it almost certain that he won't suit up for Game One - the latest word is that he's expected to

avoid the PUP list and should be back by Week Four or so. If that holds up, Gronk is still worthy of being the second tight end off

the board in Round 4 or so - take Zach Sudfield and maybe another insurance TE late, and get ready for big numbers when

Gronkowski is back on the field.

Weekly

Scoring

Jason Witten Top

Tier

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Rob Gronkowski Top

TierReceiving Total

PointsRisk/Reward



Jimmy Graham

Tight End

Saints

Player Risk

System Risk

Upside

R/R Total

Risk/RewardTotal

Points

ReceivingTop

Tier

2013 Projections:

When you lead the world in scoring at your position despite a "down" season, you are officially a bad man. Jimmy Graham has

his own BMF wallet, and in a contract year it's scary to think what he might accomplish. It's unwise to wait until Round 3 before

taking your first runner, but if you get a quality back in the first round Graham is a fine second round selection - if Gronk doesn't

return in the first few weeks of the season, Graham will outscore the #2 guy at his position by more than any other player.

Weekly

Scoring

52


2011 116 80 875 7.5 7 210 3

2012 124 93 930 7.5 8 234 4

112 83 796 7.1 6 199 10


16.2 14.4 9.8 12.8 12.0 0.0 11.1 11.6 12.8 10.7 11.1 16.2 9.7 11.1 15.5 10.9 12.8


2011 89 45 540 6.1 5 129 4

2012 104 69 843 8.1 5 183 3

98 68 783 8.0 6 182 11


10.2 9.2 13.0 0.0 11.0 10.6 13.6 10.5 10.7 10.3 12.2 9.3 10.5 15.3 11.4 15.3 10.7


2011 92 55 767 8.3 8 180 3

2012 86 61 667 7.8 2 140 4

93 67 742 8.0 6 177 9


10.2 14.6 12.5 0.0 11.9 11.0 11.2 10.5 8.9 13.4 12.9 10.5 11.9 10.6 11.3 8.8 8.9


2011 39 26 249 6.4 3 69 3

2012 93 53 493 5.3 9 156 3

97 62 628 6.5 8 173 10


11.4 8.6 10.7 8.4 0.0 11.6 12.4 10.1 10.9 14.0 9.7 10.1 8.6 10.6 12.9 12.0 11.4

Vikings System Risk

Upside


Rudolph ran wild in the red zone in 2012, cashing in nine TDs to rank third among all tight ends. Unfortunately, life on the

Ponder-osa isn't always easy - Rudolph managed to haul in barely half the passes thrown his way for an anemic 5.3 Yards Per

Attempt while posting three zero-catch outings that left his fantasy owners out in the cold. He could take the next step and

become a Top Fiver at the position - or, if Ponder gets a better connection going with Greg Jennings or Cordarrelle Patterson, he

could become a one-trick red-zone pony.

Weekly

Scoring

Packers System Risk

Upside


If you played fantasy last year, or are a Packers' fan, then you or someone you know got burned by Jermichael Finley. We get it.

But the sure-thing, top-tier TE list is vanishingly small this year. Feel free to ask Cowboys, Giants and Titans fans about the

'consistency' that guyss like Martellus Bennett or Jared Cook bring to the table, or how Kyle Rudolph's owners enjoyed the trio of

goose eggs he put up last year. If you're in the dice-rolling stage, you may as well roll with Aaron Rodgers throwing you the ball.

Weekly

Scoring

Kyle Rudolph#1 TE

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward



Upside


After being ignored by noted tight end hater Mike Martz in Chicago, Olsen's top-shelf athleticism got put to far better use by Cam

Newton and the Panthers. He's pretty much the #2 option for an upper-echelon QB in Cam Newton, and is the best combo of

quality and consistency left on the tight end board by a good stretch.

Weekly

Scoring

Jermichael Finley#1 TE

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Upside


If you watched Tony Gonzalez' 2012 season, you can basically skip R.E.D. and R.E.D. 2 on Netflix - the plot is basically the same.

After falling short against the Niners in last year's playoffs, Gonzalez elected not to Retire, and should still be Extremely

Dangerous to defenses this year. You have to account for a little added risk due to his age, but the odds are still good that

Gonzalez goes out with a bang this season.

Weekly

Scoring

Greg Olsen#1 TE

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Tony Gonzalez Top

Tier

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Falcons System Risk

53


2011 81 49 759 9.4 3 143 2

2012 72 44 523 7.3 4 120 4

91 62 702 7.7 6 168 9


10.3 10.1 10.7 9.7 11.5 10.6 11.5 9.6 11.5 10.8 0.0 8.5 9.7 10.3 14.4 9.9 9.6


2011 84 54 677 8.1 3 140 4

2012 104 62 716 6.9 6 170 3

95 60 656 6.9 7 168 11


9.9 10.9 9.9 9.0 9.2 12.1 8.8 0.0 10.2 9.7 13.1 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.2 11.1 10.9


2011 0 3

2012 40 20 226 5.7 1 49 4

92 62 703 7.6 6 168 10


9.1 10.9 10.4 12.4 9.0 11.8 10.4 9.7 10.9 0.0 12.4 8.7 12.0 11.9 8.8 11.2 8.7


2011 88 59 796 9.0 3 157 4

2012 31 24 325 10.5 - 57 3

74 56 717 9.7 6 164 9


12.1 9.5 10.8 13.2 0.0 10.3 8.1 11.2 9.9 9.5 12.1 9.3 11.7 8.8 9.6 10.3 11.7

Did Not Play


Fred Davis has been the Next Big Thing at TE two or three times now, dating back to when Chris Cooley was leading the Redskins

in receptions. Despite a suspension, last year looked extremely promising for Davis with a mobile, accurate QB and a bootleg-

happy offensive coach - a combination that led to many a Shannon Sharpe stat-jack in Denver. An Achilles injury short-circuited

Davis' 2012, but he looks to be firing on (mostly) all cylinders, as does RGIII. Could 2013 be the year Davis fulfills his long-

overdue promise?

Weekly

Scoring

Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Redskins System Risk

Upside

Jordan Cameron#1 TE

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Browns System Risk

Upside


Other times, a new face is what you really want. The latest ex-basketballer in the Antonio Gates/Jimmy Graham tradition,

Cameron didn't see much playing time in 2012 but has consistently wowed observers this offseason. Rob Chudzinski and Norv

Turner loves them some TE's, and Cameron seems to be developing a strong rapport with a not-as-terrible-as-you-probably-

remember Brandon Weeden. He's a dice roll, but one that could pay off handsomely.

Weekly

Scoring

Texans System Risk

Upside


Sometimes Ol' Reliable is all you really need. Plenty of teams won their leagues by waiting on a TE and grabbing Owen Daniels

late, and the same strategy could pay off this year. While he lacks the upside of some guys ahead of him on this list, Daniels has

a strong history in this offense with this QB and still fills a valuable role as a middle-of-the-field chain mover. He'll lose some

targets to DeAndre Hopkins and is starting to get up there in years, but is a very safe bet for back-end TE1 production.

Weekly

Scoring

Fred Davis#2 TE

Receiving

Rams System Risk

Upside


Folks raved about Jared Cook's athleticism in Tennessee, and if anything the applause has gotten louder since the Rams opened

up the vault to bring him to St. Louis. His speed, height and leaping ability can make him a major weapon in the seam, and Sam

Bradford is a definite upgrade from The Hurt Locker. But if Cook gets embroiled in a target fight with Givens, Pettis, Austin and

Daryl Richardson in an offense that still ain't gonna get confused with the Greatest Show on Turf, his consistency won't come

close to matching his potential.

Weekly

Scoring

Owen Daniels#1 TE

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Jared Cook#1 TE

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


54


2011 88 64 778 8.8 7 184 3

2012 80 49 538 6.7 7 145 3

89 56 623 7.0 7 160 8


9.2 11.1 10.0 9.4 12.0 9.4 10.0 0.0 12.0 10.2 7.6 8.1 10.3 10.6 10.2 12.0 8.1


2011 0 3

2012 105 79 806 7.7 4 184 3

89 64 670 7.5 4 155 9


9.2 10.1 9.8 8.0 10.9 7.3 8.6 10.9 0.0 11.9 8.5 9.2 11.9 9.0 8.2 9.7 11.9


2011 0 2

2012 66 45 521 7.9 3 115 4

77 56 642 8.3 6 156 10


12.8 8.1 9.0 10.6 8.9 9.7 10.9 0.0 9.8 11.9 10.7 9.5 10.7 11.0 9.8 8.6 10.6


2011 26 17 144 5.5 - 31 3

2012 90 55 626 7.0 5 148 4

83 52 626 7.5 6 150 10


9.9 8.3 6.9 9.4 12.0 10.2 11.5 0.0 8.3 9.4 8.7 10.7 8.3 9.0 8.8 10.6 8.3

Did Not Play

Did Not PlayColts System Risk

Upside


Despite being overshadowed by Coby Fleener and his Stanford connection with QB Andrew Luck, Dwayne Allen was the more

productive of Indy's tight ends in 2012. With 2-TE sets looking to be the order of the day this season, Allen will see the field on

most regular sets and is far more likely than Fleener to be the lone TE in 3-wide sets due to his far superior blocking. Add that to

the underappreciated fact that Allen is just a better athlete and receiver, and you've got the makings of a solid TE2.

Weekly

Scoring

Dwayne Allen#2 TE

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Upside


Bennett's playful disregard for sound coaching advice during his rookie Hard Knocks appearance set the stage for a career that's

been more about clowning than competing at the highest level. While he's a stout run blocker, his immaturity and inattention to

detail have kept his physical gifts from translating into the passing game. His tendency to run sloppy routes and volleyball-set

passes into the waiting hands of defenders should be a great fit with an easygoing guy like Jay Cutler.

Bears System Risk

Giants System Risk

Upside


Not since Charlie Sheen and Emilio Estevez in Men at Work did two guys get as much done in garbage time as Brandon Myers

and Carson Palmer. While Myers takes a step up in QB quality with his move to New York, he takes a step down in the pecking

order - when the Giants line up three receivers (which they'll do a ton to benefit Victor Cruz) Myers becomes the fourth-best

option to throw to. That, plus the threat of getting pulled in certain packages due to his dire blocking, will make it tough to get

the target volume he needs to succeed.

Weekly

Scoring

Martellus Bennett#2 TE

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Weekly

Scoring


Upside


A procession of injuries and the implosion of the Chargers' offense has brought Antonio Gates, former standard-bearer for the

tight end position, to low estate. But there's reason to believe that he could put together one more respectable season before

he rides off into the sunset. His seam-stretching days may be behind him, but he should still be able to work open and get in on

the plentiful short and intermediate throws that the new Chargers' O calls for.

Weekly

Scoring

Brandon Myers

Antonio Gates#2 TE

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


#2 TEReceiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


55


2011 0 3

2012 0 3

72 47 563 7.8 5 133 10


5.6 5.5 6.8 7.4 8.1 5.7 7.9 10.4 8.8 10.3 10.4 0.0 10.2 10.6 8.5 9.8 10.3


2011 0 2

2012 0 4

76 52 587 7.7 4 135 8


8.4 9.8 11.1 10.2 8.6 9.2 8.7 11.1 0.0 8.3 7.4 9.1 7.4 9.2 8.3 8.5 11.1


2011 126 83 777 6.2 5 191 3

2012 102 59 565 5.5 3 134 3

95 60 586 6.2 5 148 8


8.8 9.1 12.2 7.5 8.7 9.3 10.4 9.5 0.0 7.5 7.3 8.7 8.7 11.2 9.2 10.8 8.8


2011 0 3

2012 0 4

72 48 528 7.3 5 131 9


9.4 8.3 10.6 7.2 8.4 7.1 7.0 7.4 0.0 7.8 8.4 7.9 9.3 9.4 8.4 7.0 7.1

Did Not Play

Did Not Play

Did Not Play

Did Not Play

Did Not Play

Did Not Play

Broncos System Risk

Upside


An afterthought entering camp, Julius Thomas elbowed his way to the head of the TE class in Denver and figures to play the in-

line role in many of the Broncos' 3-wide sets. While targets may be hard to come by, the sheer volume of the Denver air attack

and laser accuracy of Peyton Manning make Thomas worth a look as a late-round flier.

Weekly

Scoring

Bengals System Risk

Upside


Eifert and his rookie teammate Giovanni Bernard are in similar situations with the Bengals. Each has a plodding vet in front of

him who'll cut into his volume early, but who could easily be nudged out of the way by the second half of the season. In Eifert's

case, the plodding vet is Jermaine Gresham. Those volume concerns make Eifert an ideal high-upside TE2 to pair with a strong

TE1 - if he fulfills his promise in the second half of the season, you can trade either one and still be in great shape for the fantasy

playoffs.

Weekly

Scoring

Julius Thomas#2 TE

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Tyler Eifert#2 TE

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


Lions System Risk

Upside


Pettigrew got caught up in the wash of a Lions passing game that was disappointing despite tremendously high volume. Of

course, 'disappointing despite tremendously high volume) more or less sums up Pettigrew's receiving career to this point. His

incredibly pedestrian YPA numbers are due to drops, iffy route running and some good old-fashioned Matthew Stafford scatter-

arm. None of those factors figure to improve enough to make Pettigrew a recommended TE this year.

Weekly

Scoring

Brandon Pettigrew#2 TE

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward



Upside


Housler's size and speed have drawn plenty of notice in Arizona, and he's definitely got some sleeper appeal if he can develop a

connection with Carson Palmer. That connection has been slow to develop thusfar, however, and Housler starts the year battling

injury. You can do better.

Weekly

Scoring

Robert Housler#2 TE

Receiving Total

Points

Risk/Reward


56

TEAM DEFENSES

57

Points/ Yardage

Prevention Sacks Turnovers

Special

Teams

Scoring TOTAL

Houston 5 4 3 4 16

Chicago 4 4 4 4 16

St. Louis 4 5 3 4 16

Seattle 5 3 4 3 15

Cincinnati 4 5 3 3 15

Baltimore 4 4 3 4 15

Green Bay 4 3 4 3 14

Cleveland 4 3 4 3 14

Miami 4 3 3 4 14

San Francisco 4 3 3 3 13

Denver 4 3 3 3 13

Arizona 3 3 3 4 13

Carolina 3 4 3 3 13

Washington 3 3 4 3 13

Buffalo 3 3 3 4 13

New York (A) 3 3 3 3 12

New England 3 3 4 2 12

Detroit 3 4 3 2 12

New York (N) 2 4 3 3 12

Minnesota 3 3 2 4 12

Tennessee 2 3 3 4 12

Pittsburgh 3 3 3 2 11

Dallas 3 3 3 2 11

Tampa Bay 3 2 3 2 10

Kansas City 3 2 3 2 10

San Diego 2 2 3 3 10

Atlanta 2 2 3 3 10

Indianapolis 2 2 2 3 9

New Orleans 2 2 2 2 8

Philadelphia 1 3 2 2 8

Jacksonville 2 1 1 2 6

Oakland 1 1 1 1 4

There’s such a wide variety of defensive scoring systems across different Fantasy leagues that it’s nearly impossible to make blanket recommendations as to which defense will be ‘best’ in your league, or even which round you should start thinking about selecting a defense in your draft. Instead, we’ve compiled the chart below to present our rankings of every team defense across the four categories that tend to correspond with defensive scoring in most systems – points/yardage prevention, sacks, turnovers and special teams scoring. Consider the categories that your league emphasizes for scoring, as well as the relative scoring potential of a top defense versus a quality #3 WR or RB when you decide which defense to target and when.

58

KICKERS

59

Most Fantasy guides will tell you to wait on a kicker until the last round…and this one is no different. Just about every study performed on kickers shows that their season-to-season variability is so great, and the scoring difference between most of the top dozen kickers is so small, that there’s almost no value in trying to bag a “great” kicker in the 13th round – especially when you factor in passing up on a position player with sleeper appeal or handcuff value. With that said, you might as well try to pick the best kicker you can. And there are a few situations, such as TD-only position player leagues that award 5 points for 50-yard kicks, where there’s actual value in taking a kicker as early as the 14th or so. With THAT said, it still goes against everything we believe in to create actual kicker rankings. But here are a few things to consider when making your (hopefully 16th-round) selection: -Kicker accuracy is variable enough year over year that you shouldn’t give it a ton of thought. A few cases, like Mason Crosby’s full-on descent into Yipsville in 2012, are probably worth staying away from, but in general a guy who connected on 85% of his kicks last year isn’t much more likely to show more accuracy in 2013 than a guy who connected on 80%.

-The ‘ideal’ kicker would be a guy in a high-scoring offense, preferably one that’s pass-happy and gains a ton of yards while stalling out some in the red zone. He’d kick for a warm weather team indoors, and play as many games as possible in warm weather – inside or Down South games in Weeks 14-16 are particularly desirable for obvious reasons. He’d have a good team defense that keeps setting the offense up in strong field position. And, of course, he’d have a strong and accurate leg – strength is more of a year-to-year constant than accuracy, but don’t over-rate it unless your league scoring sufficiently rewards 50+ yard kicks. A quick review of the top kickers should help you determine who best meets these criteria.

-- If he’s available (and of reasonable quality), the kicker who plays for your squad’s leading touchdown-maker can be a wise choice. Time and time again it’s been proven that consistent scoring is better than spiky scoring when it comes to amassing a strong regular season win percentage and setting yourself up for good playoff position. If your guy fails to get it in the end zone, having at least 3 points directly tied to that failure can be quite a nice consolation prize. It’s probably not worth taking Buffalo’s kicker if your lead dog is C.J. Spiller, but Adrian Peterson/Blair Walsh, Tony Romo/Dan Bailey or Calvin Johnson/David Akers can all be sensible matches.

-- Another “all things being equal” strategy to consider is taking a kicker with a later bye week. Why put yourself through the hassle of finding another kicker to fill in for your guy’s bye (or, God forbid, carrying a backup kicker) when you can just pick up a quality guy who was dropped on his Week 5 bye, drop your original guy and roll through the rest of the season with no worries? Quite often, kickers who finish in the Top 5 in scoring get dropped on their bye week and aren’t ever picked up again by their original owners. If making waiver claims isn’t prohibitive in your league, planning to select a kicker for your stretch run once you’ve already got 5-6 weeks of 2013 performance data in the books can be a nifty strategy – as well as one more quality reminder that you SHOULDN’T TAKE A KICKER EARLY.

60

THE LAST WORD

61

The first rule of Fantasy football is to have fun. If you’re not enjoying the whole process – getting ready for the draft, draft night, watching the games and running smack at your boys on the league message board – then you’re doing it wrong. With that said, nothing is more fun than winning. And one of the keys to winning in Fantasy football is the willingness to divorce yourself from your personal allegiances when it’s time to select a player. That means the willingness to pass on a player from your home team/college team/whatever if there are better players on the board, and it ALSO means the willingness to choose a player from your rival team/rival college team/whatever if he’s the best player available. An anecdote may help you to get into the proper mindset. When Luke Skywalker stood in Jabba’s throne room, he delivered a very simple ultimatum: “I’m taking Captain Solo and his friends. You can either profit by this or be destroyed.” A similar reality could face you at some point on draft day. Let’s say you’re a Cowboys fan and you hate the Eagles and Redskins. I mean fist-clenching, mouth-foaming, cross-your-heart-and-hope-they-die HATE those dudes. In that case, you’re probably not too favorably disposed towards either LeSean McCoy or Alfred Morris. But here’s the thing – barring injury, McCoy will rack up 1700 combined yards this year, and Morris will rush for at least 1400 yards and a dozen TDs. These things WILL happen, whether you like it or not. If either of those guys is the best player on the board when it’s your selection, you have a choice. They can either do these things FOR your Fantasy team and get you paid, or they can do them TO your Fantasy team AND your real life team, screw you two ways and leave you unpaid. Jabba didn’t listen, and remember where that got him? Choked out by a slave girl and cooked like a ribeye on his own Sail Barge. Don’t be like Jabba – get paid. And have fun. Happy Drafting, Jason Chilton and the SBNation Fantasy team

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