the solar and space weather reseach group in lund space weather solar activity - the driver...
Post on 20-Dec-2015
221 views
TRANSCRIPT
The Solar and Space Weather Reseach Group in Lund
The Solar and Space Weather Reseach Group in Lund
• Space weather• Solar activity - the driver• Modelling and forecasting
space weather and effects using KBN
• ESA/Lund Space Weather Forecast Service
• Regional Warning Center Sweden in Lund
• www.irfl.lu.se
Space weatherSpace weather
• The solar activity causes conditions that can influence the Earth’s atmosphere, technological systems, and endanger human health and life.
• We call that space weather
SOHOSOHO
• Solar Heliospheric Observatory was launched on December 2, 1995
• SOHO carries three instruments observing the solar interior, six the solar corona and three the solar wind
Stanford collaborationStanford collaboration
MDI/SOHO reveals the interiorMDI/SOHO reveals the interior
MDI shows how magnetic elements form sunspots
MDI shows how the dynamo changes
Sunspots are footpointsof emerging magnetic flux tubes
Sunspots observed on solar surface
Sunspots observed on solar surface
Schwabe found the 11- year sunspot solar cycle. R = k(10g + f)
The two peaks of solar activity, 1.3 years separated!
Gleissberg solar cycle in sunspot group number
Gleissberg solar cycle in sunspot group number
Gleissberg found an amplitude modulation of the 11-yearcycle of 80-90 years, as seen by the sunspot group number
High solar activity and warm climate, low and cold climateHigh solar activity and warm climate, low and cold climate
The solar activity during 5 000 yearsderived from C14 measurments in old trees.
Cold climate in England, Holland during Little Ice Age. Vikings settled down in Greenland during warm Middle Age.
Possible physical explanation of solar climate relation
Possible physical explanation of solar climate relation
The solar coronal magneticflux has increased with 131%since 1901.
High solar activityCosmic ray decreasesCloud coverage decreasesHigher temperature
Clouds effect climate 100 times more effectively than CO2.
Solar activity and North Atlantic Oscillation Index
Solar activity and North Atlantic Oscillation Index
CMEs cause the most severe space weather effects
CMEs cause the most severe space weather effects
• Halo CMEs are most geoeffective
• Mass: 5-50 billion tons
• Frequency: 3.5/day (max), 0.2/day (min)
• Speed: 200-2000 km/s
Early CME signal in wavelet power spectra of MDI data
Early CME signal in wavelet power spectra of MDI data
Wavelet power spectra of MDI magnetic mean field
Wavelet power spectra of MDI magnetic mean field
Upper panel shows for 53 CME events.Lower panel shows for times without CMEs.
Probing CMEs with a solar radarProbing CMEs with a solar radar
15 000 antennas with sensorsand emitters, organized in 100clusters distributed within acircular region of about 350 kmdiameter. Frequency 10-250 MHz(30-1.5m). The total data rate will be 2.5 Tbits/s.
Modelling and forecasting with KBN
Modelling and forecasting with KBN
• The basis of using neural networks as mathematical models is ”mapping”. Given a dynamic system, a neural network can model it on the basis of a set of examples encoding the input/output behavior of the system. It can learn the mathematical function underlying the system operation (generalize), if the network is properly designed (architecture, weights) and trained (learning algorithm).
• Both architecture and weights can be determined from differential equations which describe the causal relations between the physical variables (the solution of the diff equation is approximated with a RBF). The network (KBN) is then trained with observations.
• The architecture (number of input and hidden nodes) can also be determined from dynamic system analysis (reconstruction of attractor from time series gives dimension).
• Neural network can discover laws from regularities in data (e.g. Newton’s law). If one construct a hierachy of neural networks where networks at each level can learn knowledge at some level of abstraction, even more advanced laws can be dicovered.
Workshops arranged by usWorkshops arranged by us
Workshops on ”Artificial Intelligence Applications in Solar-Terrestrial Physics” were held in Lund 1993 and 1997.
Real-time forecasts and warnings based on KBN Real-time forecasts and warnings based on KBN
Solar wind observations with ACE make accurate forecasts 1-3 hours ahead possible.
Solar observations with SOHO make warnings 1-3days ahead possible.
Solar input data
ESA Space Weather Programme Study
ESA Space Weather Programme Study
ESA/Lund Space Weather Forecast Service
ESA/Lund Space Weather Forecast Service
Near and farside solar activity from MDI/SOHO observationsNear and farside solar activity from MDI/SOHO observations
Latest information on arrival of halo CME at L1
Latest information on arrival of halo CME at L1
Latest info on forecasts of satellite anomalies
Latest info on forecasts of satellite anomalies
Latest information on forecasts of Kp, Dst, AE and GIC
Latest information on forecasts of Kp, Dst, AE and GIC
Test Dst forecastsTest Dst forecasts
Neural network forecasts of Dst vs other methods
Neural network forecasts of Dst vs other methods
Regional Warning CentersRWC-Sweden in Lund
Regional Warning CentersRWC-Sweden in Lund
Forecasts of aurora as SMS or voice messages
Forecasts of aurora as SMS or voice messages
Where to learn more about usWhere to learn more about us