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The Three Fundamentals to the

Ultimate Reliability in Consumer

Electronics

November 3 2016

Craig Hillman

SMTA Webinar

9000 Virginia Manor Rd Ste 290, Beltsville MD 20705 | 301-474-0607 | www.dfrsolutions.com

o Solve the Problem and Move On

o Go to the Source (DPA Doesn’t Work)

o Efficiently Simulate

THE THREE FUNDAMENTALS OF RELIABILITY

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o Consumer Electronics

o Cheap

o Disposable

o Poor Quality

o Military/Space Electronics

o Expensive

o Robust

o Long-Lasting

CURRENT PARADIGM

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Is it possible to have low-cost electronics with

very high reliability?

How would you do it?

What would it mean for every other industry

willing to pay large sums to meet market

expectations of performance?

CAN YOU BREAK THIS PARADIGM?

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Low Cost, High Reliability?

iPad2: A Case Study

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o iPad 2: Much more complicated than typical

hi-rel electronics

o Over 1000 components

o Over 250 unique parts

o Very small components:

01005, 0201, 0402, 0603

o Almost 25 ball grid arrays

(BGA) with up to 1000 I/O

o How reliable is this piece of consumer

electronics?

LOW COST, HIGH RELIABILITY? CASE STUDY


o Truly revolutionary: A consumer electronic as reliable

(or more) than typical high-reliability electronics

o Key Drivers: More robust software, elimination of moving

parts (fans, keyboard, hard drive)

WARRANTY RETURNS: iPAD2


o For pure electronic hardware, the iPad had a reliability of 99.97% (300 ppm)

o With over 1000 components, this works out to a failure rate of ~300 ppb/component

o Over a one-year time period, this is <1 FIT (10-9 device-hours)

o No special qualificationNo OEM-level screening

FAILURE RATE: iPAD2


STOP!!

iPad2 environment is

too easy

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o How about brake modules?

o Below the shock absorber

o Temperatures up to 105°C

o Severe shock and vibration

o Examples from DOT

o Hyundai Brake Module: 0.3 IPTV (99.97%)

o GM Antilock Brake Module: 0.03 IPTV (99.997%)

COTS RELIABILITY: AUTOMOTIVE MODULES


o The GM ABS had a reliability of 99.997% (30 ppm)

o With ~300 components, this works out to a failure rate of ~100 ppb/component

o Over a one-year time period, this is <1 FIT (10-9 device-hours)

o No special qualification No OEM-level screening

FAILURE RATE: GM ABS

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o The reliability of these two electronics is so high, if

they were arranged in a redundant configuration

they may never fail

o A system with two (2) redundant iPad2 hardware

would have a theoretical reliability of 99.99999%

THOUGHT OF THE WEEK

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How did

they do it?

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o Reliability assurance (aka,

risk mitigation) should never

be a MAKE-WORK program

o Any actions (analysis, testing,

design rules, manufacturing,

material selection, etc.) should

be judged based on cost and

time-to-market

o Cold-Hard Cash

SOLVE THE PROBLEM

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Several years ago, DfR Solutions was closely

engaged with two cell phone manufacturers on

drop performance of electronic hardware

SOLVE THE PROBLEM: CASE STUDY A

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OEM #1

o Set up multiple Drop Test

Centers of Excellence

o Up 50 team members

researched fundamental

performance of BGA/CSP

during drop

o Actively involved in

industry committees,

standards, and

conferences

SOLVE THE PROBLEM: CASE STUDY A (cont.)

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OEM #2

o Quickly performed a cost-

benefit analysis on

underfill ‘everywhere’ vs.

comprehensive test and

analysis

o Based on the value of

engineering resources and

time-to-market, moved

forward with underfill

‘everywhere’


o What was the end result?

o Independent studies found that OEM #2 consistently

had faster time-to-market and higher performance

under drop

o Lesson learned:

o If you can solve the problem, solve it, don’t study it

o Engineers are expensive; focus them on the ‘science of success’

o Time to market (or time to deployment) is critical

SOLVE THE PROBLEM: CASE STUDY A (cont.)

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o Counterfeit parts can be a big reliability problemo Especially for low volume, long life programs like

military/space/aviation

o Extensive amount of legislation and regulation in the area of electronic parts

o Section 818 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012

o DFARS 252.246-7007 Contractor Counterfeit Electronic Part Detection and Avoidance System

o DFARS 252.246-7008 Sources of Electronic Parts: Avoidance

o SAE AS5553 Counterfeit Electronic Parts: Avoidance, Detection, Mitigation, and Disposition

o SAE AS6081 Counterfeit Electronic Parts for Distributors

o JEDEC JESD243 Counterfeit Electronic Parts: Non-Proliferation for Manufacturers

SOLVE THE PROBLEM: CASE STUDY B

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o Many DoD organizations and contractors (and labs)

spent a lot of resources clarifying the definition of

authorized suppliers and counterfeit detection

processes

o Document creation, round-robin evaluation, etc.

o Extensive bureaucracy to confirm compliance with new

regulations

o However, Henry Livingston of BAE Systems reported

that >99% of all counterfeits are from independent

distributors and other non-authorized sources

SOLVE THE PROBLEM: CASE STUDY B (cont.)

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o Two major military contractors (and DfR customers) did

one thing different from their peers

o They banned all procurement from unauthorized sources

o No more independent brokers

o The results?

o Both companies have reported no new counterfeit issues since

implementation of the ban

o Engineering resources much more effectively utilized, faster

time to market

SOLVE THE PROBLEM: CASE STUDY B (cont.)

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o A major cell-phone manufacturer is well-known for the

degree of control they place over their supply chain

o They will even procure the equipment, develop the process

recipe, and specify the material source

o The value of the contractor is sometimes limited to contracting

personnel and factory space

o It is important to note that the engagement is all about

the process

o This major cell-phone manufacturer tends to do little to no

post-process evaluation

GO TO THE SOURCE

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o In dealing with electronic parts,

military/aerospace/space industry tend to favor

destructive physical analysis (DPA)

o It is my observation that DPA does not work

o Often a poor filter for poorly controlled processes

o Can drive false rejects

o Major NASA re-organization driven by extensive DPA

rejects, resulting in cost overruns and schedule delays

in several major programs

GO TO THE SOURCE (cont.)

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o Major medical electronic OEM selected ceramic capacitors based on DPA and screening activities (‘medical-grade’)

o Would still periodically experience production, test, and field issues

o If 80% failed screen and DPA, supplier would send remaining 20%

o Transitioned to non-medical grade ceramic capacitor manufacturer known to have best process control in the industry

o Approximately 10X reduction in ceramic capacitor failure rate

GO TO THE SOURCE: CASE STUDY A

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o Use of Automotive Grade parts is considered one of

the lowest-cost options to obtain high-reliability parts

GO TO THE SOURCE: CASE STUDY B

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o Why is automotive grade successful at ensuring reliability?

o Tested to one of the AEC qualification documents (Q100, Q101, Q200) with rigorous process change notification

o Certified to ISO/TS-16949

o Requires a Production Part Approval Process (PPAP)[typically compliant to AIAG manual]; PPAP would include PFMEA, control plan, drawing, MSA, capability data, etc

o Commitment to Zero-Defect

o Nothing about DPA or OEM-level screening

GO TO THE SOURCE: CASE STUDY B (cont.)


EFFICIENTLY SIMULATE

“Everything should be

made as simple as

possible, but not any

simpler.” – Albert Einstein

Find the simplest model

that captures the effects

that affect you.

Intelligently combine

effects into the whole.


o Industry leaders understand the limitations of their

design

o Driven by targeted, simplified simulations performed

at the appropriate stage of development

o Start simulations early in the process, but do not

overcommit resources

EFFICIENTLY SIMULATE (cont.)

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o What is susceptible to degradation in electronic designs?

o Integrated Circuits (EM, TDDB, HCI, NBTI)

o Interconnects (Die Attach, Wire Bonds, Solder Joints, Vias)

o Ceramic Capacitors (oxygen vacancy migration)

o Electrolytic Capacitors (electrolyte evaporation, dielectric dissolution)

o Film Capacitors

o Memory Devices (limited write cycles, read times)

o Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) and Laser Diodes

o Resistors (if improperly derated)

o Silver-Based Platings (if exposed to corrosive environments)

o Relays and other Electromechanical Components

o Connectors (if improperly specified and designed)

o Tin Whiskers

WHERE ARE THE LIMITATIONS?

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o Electronic OEM performs three (3) levels of thermal

simulation

o Step 1: Rule of Thumb (image)

o Step 2: Initial CFD Calcs

o Step 3: Full 3D CFD Simulation

EFFICIENTLY SIMULATE CASE STUDY A

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o Major downhole supplier performs thermo-mechanical and mechanical simulation on every design

o Environment is extremely aggressive (e.g., >125C)

o Initial simulations are performed using Sherlock

o 3D Model is extracted from actual ECAD, but shapes are simplified

o Initial insights available within 2 to 10 hours

o Designs of concern are evaluated through more complex FEA simulations

o Final evaluation can take days, weeks

EFFICIENTLY SIMULATE CASE STUDY B

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o There are numerous opportunities to design and

build very high reliability, relatively low cost

electronics (consumer, industrial, military, etc.)

o Requires focus

o Solve the Problem: Leverage personnel appropriately

(focus is on time-to-market)

o Go to the Source: Implement activity where it counts

o Efficiently Simulate: Simplification allows for more insight

CONCLUSION

the three fundamentals to the ultimate ... - dfr solutions

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