The Timken Company (TKR)Presented by,Han YangNurul Alam RafiKannu Priya

Presented on April 24, 2012

Agenda

•Introduction•Macro-economy•Industry•Timken’s Business•Financial analysis•Multiple valuation•DCF valuation•Recommendation

Introduction• Company: The Timken Company Ticker: TKR• Reg. in NYSE

• Current market price : $ 49.57 (Previous close price on 4/23/2012)• PEG = 0.84

• Industry : Industrial Machinery GICS Map place: 20106020

• Founded in 1899 by Henry Timken with two patents on the design of tapered roller bearings.

• TKR develops, manufactures, markets and sells products for friction management and mechanical power transmission, alloy steels and steel components.

• 1 yr implied growth in EPS = 28% Graham g = 1.25%

• Greenblatt profitability ratios:

EBIT/TA = 32% EBIT/EV=14.7% Sum= 47%

Relationship to economy• The Bearing industry is correlated to Macroeconomic

activities

Source: World Bank; Timken 09’, 10’ 10-K

Industry overview

•Bearing industry in the US generated $7.9 billion revenue in 2011.

•The industry is at mature stage•The annual growth rate from 2006 to

2011 is 1.4%•The forecasted annual growth for next 5

years is 2.3%

Up and down stream

•The up stream of bearing industry is steel industry.

•The customers of bearing products include

Transportation industryDefense industryClean energy (wind turbine)

Major players in the US

Source: IBIS World

Business Overview• Started with two patents on the design of tapered roller

bearing, Timken grew to become the world’s largest manufacturer of tapered roller bearing.

• 10 technology and engineering centers

• 14 distribution centers and warehouses and

• nearly 21,000 employees.

• operates in 30 countries and territories.

• Have many customers in many industries and no single customer generates 10% or more of total sales or segment sales

• Around 66% sales comes from the US market.

Bearings & Power Transmission• Bearings can be of different shapes and sizes.• Have 4 components: 1) the cone or inner race 2)the cup or outer race 3)the rollers in between cup and

cone 4)the cage between the rollers

Usage: • To reduce friction where shafts, gears or wheels are used.• To provide high load tolerance

Applications:• Transportation including cars, trucks, heavy trucks,

helicopters, airplanes and trains. • Industries including mills, mining, oil and gas extraction

and production, gear drives, health and positioning control, wind mills and food processing.

Tapered Roller Bearing Ball Bearings Spherical Plain Bearings

High Performance Bearings Precision Bearings Aerospace Bearings

Integrated Bearing Assemblies Precision Bearing Assemblies Picture source: www.timken.com

Steel• produces more than 450 grades of carbon, micro-alloy and

alloy steel, which are sold as ingots, bars and tubes in a variety of chemistries, lengths and finishes and custom made precision steel products for many industries.

Applications: a wide variety of end products including oil country drill

pipe, bits and collars, gears, hubs, axles, crankshafts and connecting rods, bearing races and rolling elements, bushings, fuel injectors, wind energy shafts and other demanding applications, where mechanical power transmission is critical to the end customer.

Distribution and Services

• Mostly use their own efficient distributors to sell products in Mobile industries, Process Industries and Aerospace and Defense segments.

• Has a joint venture named CoLinx, LLC in North America to support sales in Process segment.

• Timken provides expert services for bearing maintenance and repair. Total services accounted for less than 5% of the sales last year.

Risks

•Pricing pressure resulted from high competition in bearing and steel industry and potential over-capacity in Steel industry.

•Cyclical nature of many customers and sustained uncertainty in financial market.

•Substantial costs and limitations on operation imposed by environmental laws and regulations.

Recent Acquisitions and new products• Acquired Drives LLC in 2011. - Manufactures highly engineered products like

precision roller chain, pintle chain, agricultural conveyor chain, engineering class chain, oil filled roller chain and augur products.

• Acquired Philadelphia Gear Corp. in 2011. - provides aftermarket gear box repair services and

gear-drive systems for the industrial, energy and military marine sectors, including refining and pipeline systems, mining, cement, pulp and paper making and water management systems

Financial analysis – revenue

Timken 08’,09’,10’,11’ 10-Ks

Financial analysis – EBIT margin

Timken 08’,09’,10’,11’ 10-Ks

Financial analysis – Dep & Capex

Timken 08’,09’,10’,11’ 10-Ks

Financial analysis - ROE

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Profit margin 4.9% 5.4% -4.3% 6.8% 8.8%

Assets turnover 1.03 1.11 0.78 0.97 1.19

Leverage (A/E) 2.23 2.73 2.51 2.15 2.13

ROE 11.41% 16.31% -8.40% 14.15% 22.24%

Comparable Companies

MultiplesTimken (TKR)

SKF (SKFRY.PK)

NSK(NPSKY.PK)

Price per share $

50.51 25.09 13.64

D/A 9% 14% 35%

P/E 11 13.25 21.72

P/S .95 1.13 .83

EV/Revenue .96 1.27 1.08

EV/EBITDA 5.36 7.77 2.29

Revenue $

EBITDA $ EPS $

Anti Friction Bearings

3334 678 3.04

Steel 1836.7 316.5 1.55

Total 5170 924.2 4.59

Data source for multiples: Yahoo Finance

Contd.

Tenaris (TS)

Gerdau (GGB)

Nucor (NUE)

Steel Dynamics (STLD)

Price per share $

34.92 9.55 39.67 12.89

D/A 4% 31% 25% 0%

P/E 15.48 14.62 16.54 13.46

P/S 2.08 .85 .63 .36

EV/Revenue

2.03 1.12 .72 .6

EV/EBITDA 8.41 8.61 7.32 6.6

Data source for multiples: Yahoo Finance

Valuation

   Anti-friction Bearings &

Power Transmission Steel    

   Enterprise Value $

Equity Value per Share $

Enterprise Value $

Equity Value Per Share $

Value per Share $ Weight

P/E                          53.20   

                  23.25 

            76.45  0.25

EV/EBITDA             3,408.33   

             2,448.13   

               59.73  0.25

EV/Revenue            3,916.86   

              2,052.51   

               60.89  0.25

P/S                          33.42   

                        18.42 

               51.84  0.25

Final Value $       62.23  

Recommendation

•Multiple valuation: $ 62.23•DCF valuation: $63.67•Current price: $49.57

Recommendation: buy 200 share at market price – approximately 3% of total portfolio