the traders forum tuesday 12 th march 2013 presenter: shaun van den berg head of client education...

The Traders ForumThe Traders Forum

Tuesday 12Tuesday 12thth March 2013 March 2013

Presenter: Shaun van den BergPresenter: Shaun van den Berg

Head of Client EducationHead of Client Education

• Technical Market Overview• Technical Trading

• Support & Resistance• Fibonacci Retracement• Moving Averages• Stochastic & RSI indicators

• The Stockbroker (Trade Ideas) • The Investor (Long-term Investment Opportunities)

• Open the Floor• Upcoming Webinars• Summary • Conclusion

AgendaAgenda

Technical Market OverviewTechnical Market Overview

• Dow Jones Industrial Average• Hang Seng & Nikkei Indices• DAX Index

• Brent Crude Oil• Gold $ & Platinum $• Euro / US $• Rand $

• JSE Top 40 Index• JSE FINDI 30 Index • JSE Mining Index

Technical Overview Technical Overview

Dow Jones Industrial Average (Weekly) Dow Jones Industrial Average (Weekly)

BullishBullish

SupportSupport

ResistanceResistance

Hang Seng Index (Weekly) Hang Seng Index (Weekly)

BullishBullish

SupportSupport


Nikkei Index (Weekly) Nikkei Index (Weekly)

BullishBullish

SupportSupport


DAX Index (Weekly) DAX Index (Weekly)

BullishBullish

SupportSupport


Brent OilBrent Oil

BullishBullish


SupportSupport


SupportSupport

SupportSupport

Gold $ Gold $

BearishBearish


SupportSupport



SupportSupport

ChannelChannel

SupportSupport

Platinum $Platinum $

BullishBullish

SupportSupport


Support / ResistanceSupport / Resistance

SupportSupport

Euro/ USDEuro/ USD


USD WeaknessUSD Weakness


SupportSupport

Rand $Rand $


ZAR WeaknessZAR Weakness


JSE Top 40 IndexJSE Top 40 Index

BullishBullish


SupportSupport


SupportSupport

JSE FINDI 30 IndexJSE FINDI 30 Index

BullishBullish

SupportSupport

SupportSupport ResistanceResistance

21 28 4June

11 18 25 2July

9 16 23 30 6August

13 20 27 3 10 17September

25 1 8October

15 22 29 5 12November

19 26 3 10December

18 24 72013

14 21 28 4 11February

18 25 4March

11 18 25

280

285

290

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

3500.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

100.0%

JSE-MINI (315.590, 316.300, 314.690, 315.240, +1.06998)

30

40

50

60

70Relative Strength Index (38.9525)

50

Stochastic Oscillator (16.0098)

JSE Mining Index JSE Mining Index

BullishBullish

SupportSupport

SupportSupport

• DJIA• Bullish• Broken Resistance • Becoming Overbought

• Hang Seng Index • Bullish / Overbought• Broken Support

• Nikkei Index• Bullish • Overbought

• DAX Index • Bullish / Overbought• Broken Support• New Highs

• Brent Crude Oil• Bullish / Broken Support

Summary: Technical Overview Summary: Technical Overview

• Gold $• Bearish / Support

• Platinum $• Bullish / Support

• EUR/ZAR• Weakness• Resistance

• Rand $• Weakness

• JSE Top 40 Index• Bullish

• JSE FINDI 30 Index• Bullish • Overbought

• JSE Mining Index • Bullish / Support• 61.8% Fib retracement

Technical AnalysisTechnical Analysis

Support & Resistance / Trend Lines / Fibonacci retracement Support & Resistance / Trend Lines / Fibonacci retracement Moving Averages Moving Averages Stochastic & RSI indicatorsStochastic & RSI indicators

Resistance

Resistance

Support

Support

Support

Resistance

Resistance

Support

Support

Support

Resistance

Resistance

Support & Resistance levels highlight possible “turning points”

Support

Resistance

Resistance

Support

Support & ResistanceSupport & Resistance

SupportTrend Line

ResistanceTrend Line

Support Trend Line

Resistance Trend Line

As long as the price stays above/ below the Support or Resistance lines, the trend is either bullish or

bearish

Trend LinesTrend Lines

Support & Resistance / Trend LinesSupport & Resistance / Trend Lines

SupportSupport

SupportSupportSupportSupport

SupportSupport





SupportSupport

• Series of numbers - Add the previous two numbers to come up with the next number in the sequence. – Example: 1,1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 …

• “Golden Mean” - Measure the ratio of any number to the succeeding higher number – Example: 1/2 = .500, 2/3 = 0.666, 3/5 = 0.666 …. 34/55 = .618.

• Measure the ratio between alternate numbers– Example: 1/3 = 0.333, 2/5 = 0.400, ….34/89 = 0.382

• Fibonacci Retracement Levels – 0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764

• Fibonacci Extension Levels– 0, 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.382, 1.618

Fibonacci RetracementsFibonacci Retracements

• First draw a line between two extreme points (i.e., a significant trough & peak). (It is always applied from left to right)

• It measures the size of a price move & subsequently places horizontal support & resistance levels on a price chart - Used to make trading decisions

• A series of up to nine horizontal lines will be drawn at the Fibonacci levels of 0.0%, 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 261.8%, & 423.6%.

• After a significant move (either up or down), prices will often rebound & retrace a significant portion (if not all) of the original move.

• The 38.2%, 50% & 61.8% levels are the most commonly used levels that the price could retrace back to.

• The Fibonacci tool can also project extension levels that show where the price could go to - Used for profit taking or even counter trend entries.

• Most common extension levels used by traders are the 138.2% & 161.8%.

• Note: Fibonacci is not a trading system in itself –used in conjunction with/ part of a trading system.


Fibonacci ExtensionsFibonacci Extensions

• Moving Averages (MA) smooth out the data / Warn of a trend change after it has taken place.

• A crossover is any penetration of a MA – Whipsaws (False signals).

• Valid penetrations - Filtering techniques. For example:

– Take action on a MA crossover 3% penetration / Ignore all others.

• Better way to avoid whipsaws - Use more than one MA.

• Signals are given by a shorter-term MA crossing above or below a longer-term MA.

• Two MAs found to be reliable in determining primary market moves are the 50-day (10-week) & 200-day (40-week) moving average crossover.

– Buy signals - When the 50-day or 10-week MA moves above the 200-day or 40-week MA & when the 200-day or 40-week MA is advancing.

– Sell signals - When the 50-day or 10-week MA moves below the 200-day or 40-week MA and when the 200-day or 40-week MA is declining.

Moving Average CrossoversMoving Average Crossovers

Moving Average CrossoversMoving Average Crossovers

• Stochastic - oscillator that indicates overbought & oversold conditions in the market. – During periods of price decreases, the price closes

tend to accumulate near the low of the price range – During periods of price increases, the price closes

tend to accumulate near the high of the price range.

• Slow Stochastic - Smoothed by means of a MA.

• The Slow Stochastic, plots two lines: the %K and %D. – Area above 80 - Overbought– Area below 20 - Oversold

Stochastic IndicatorStochastic Indicator

Stochastic IndicatorStochastic Indicator

• Relative Strength measures the strength of one entity relative to the strength of another entity.

• RSI indicator – Compare the internal strength / "Internal Strength Index

• Momentum indicator - Measures an equity's price relative to itself / Relative to its past performance.

• Front weighted - Gives a better velocity reading than other indicators.

• Less affected by sharp rises or falls in price performance / Filters out some of the 'noise' in trading activity.

• Buy & sell levels depend on period used – Shorter periods volatile indicator that reaches further extremes. – Longer periods less volatile but reaches extremes less often. – Vast majority seem to change direction at 30 & 70.

• Treats price as a rubber band - Stretch just so far - forced to contract.

• Lends itself to trend lines, support & resistance lines,& divergence.

• Look for divergence between price action and RSI. – Upwardly sloping price & downward sloping RSI – warning / one of them is

wrong - Price is about to break down. – Downward sloping price & upward sloping RSI - Price is about to break up.

RSI indicatorRSI indicator

RSI indicatorRSI indicator

The Stockbroker The Stockbroker

Technical & Trade IdeasTechnical & Trade Ideas

The StockbrokerThe Stockbroker

Daily & Intra-daynewsletter

Trade Spotlights

CFD & SSF Trader

Trade Ideas

Entry Levels

Swing Traders

Target Price

Stops

Average Trade DurationAverage Trade Duration

SectorsSectors

Longs versus ShortsLongs versus Shorts

Shorts: 28/80 = 35%Longs: 52/80 = 65%

Total PerformanceTotal Performance

Winners versus LosersWinners versus Losers

Losers: 34/80 = 42.5%Winners: 46/80 = 57.5%

First Quarter 2013 TradesFirst Quarter 2013 Trades

22 Trades13 Losers (59.10%)9 Winners (40.90%)

Losers: 45.81% / 13 = - 3.52%Winners: 49.74% / 9 = 5.53%

Closed TradesPPC (PPC)LifeHC (LHC)

Open TradesBHP Billiton (BIL)Vodacom (VOD)

Unopened TradesTFG (TFG)Old Mutual (OML)

Trade Ideas Trade Ideas

Trade SpotlightsABIL (ABL)Implats (IMP)

Email [email protected] to be added to The Stockbroker mailing list

Closed Trades : PPC (PPC)Closed Trades : PPC (PPC)

Instrument: CFD / SSFInstrument: CFD / SSFDirection: Buy / LongDirection: Buy / Long

Entry: 3385cEntry: 3385cTake Profit: 3600cTake Profit: 3600cStop loss:Stop loss: 3301c 3301c

Risk/ Reward: 1:2.56 Risk/ Reward: 1:2.56

Potential Profit:Potential Profit:215c per share215c per share6.35% (36.29%)6.35% (36.29%)

Closed @ 3600cClosed @ 3600c6.35% (36.29%)*6.35% (36.29%)*

*17.5%

Closed Trades : LifeHC (LHC)Closed Trades : LifeHC (LHC)




Potential Profit:Potential Profit:391c per share391c per share

12.18% (81.23%)12.18% (81.23%)

Closed @ 3400cClosed @ 3400c5.95% (39.68%)5.95% (39.68%)

Open Trades: Vodacom (VOD)Open Trades: Vodacom (VOD)





5.71% (38%)5.71% (38%)

Open Trades: BHP Billiton (BIL)Open Trades: BHP Billiton (BIL)





Unopened Trades: TFG (TFG)Unopened Trades: TFG (TFG)





8.63% (49.31%)*8.63% (49.31%)*

*17.5%

Unopened Trades: Old Mutual (OML)Unopened Trades: Old Mutual (OML)

Instrument: SSFInstrument: SSFDirection: Sell / Short Direction: Sell / Short




Trade Spotlights: ABIL (ABL)Trade Spotlights: ABIL (ABL)

Trade Spotlights: Implats (IMP)Trade Spotlights: Implats (IMP)

Long-term opportunitiesLong-term opportunities

The Investor The Investor

The InvestorThe Investor

Bi-monthly newsletter One Share Spot

Long-term equity investor

Positives & Negatives

Technical ViewRecommendation

Equity Account

3-year view15%

compounded

MethodologyMethodology

Step 1:Click

Research

Step 2:Click

Search

PEG ratio (PE%) is less than or equal to 85%

Quality rating (%) is greater than 70%

MethodologyMethodology

*

*

*

*

• Sasol (SOL)• Bowcalf (BCF)• Sunint (SUI)• Hudaco (HDC)• WBHO (WBO)

The Investor - Share PicksThe Investor - Share Picks

Email [email protected] to be added to The Investor mailing list

OpenDate Stock Entry 11.3.2013 P&L %

20121206 SOL 35500 40750 14.79%20130117 BCF 760 801 5.39%20130130 SUI 9870 10400 5.37%20130214 HDC 9700 9600 -1.03%20130228 WBO 15000 16500 10.00%

*

*

Sasol (SOL)Sasol (SOL)

Sasol (SOL)Sasol (SOL)

Updated: 12 March 2013

Interim dividend 484.50 cpsPayable Monday, 15 April 2013

Sasol (SOL) (Weekly) Sasol (SOL) (Weekly)

Bowcalf (BCF)Bowcalf (BCF)

Bowcalf (BCF)Bowcalf (BCF)

Results expected: 14 March 2013

Bowcalf (BCF) (Weekly)Bowcalf (BCF) (Weekly)

Sunint (SUI)Sunint (SUI)

Sunint (SUI)Sunint (SUI)

Updated: 26 February 2013

Interim dividend 97.11 cpsPayable Monday, 25 March 2013

Sunnit (SUI) (Weekly)Sunnit (SUI) (Weekly)

Hudaco (HDC)Hudaco (HDC)

Hudaco (HDC) Hudaco (HDC) 8.2.20138.2.2013

WBHO (WBO)WBHO (WBO)

Open the FloorOpen the Floor

• Learn to trade Equity Derivatives Webinar (Full)

– Date: Thursday, 14 March 2013

– Time: 13:00 14:00

• Advanced Technical Analysis (Candlesticks)

– Date: Wednesday, 20 March 2013

– Time: 13:00 14:00

• Introduction to Exchange Traded Products (ETFs & ETNs)

– Date: Wednesday, 10 April 2013

– Time: 13:00 14:00

• Introduction to Fundamental Analysis

– Date: Wednesday, 24 April 2013

– Time: 13:00 14:00

Upcoming WebinarsUpcoming Webinars

**Please note: limited to 100 people

• Durban – Date: Wednesday, 17 April 2013 – Time: 17:30 for 18:00 until 20:00

• Johannesburg – Date: Tuesday, 28 May 2013– Time: 17:30 for 18:00 until 20:00

• Pretoria– Date: Tuesday, 25 June 2013 – Time: 17:30 for 18:00 until 20:00

• Johannesburg – Date: Tuesday, 30 July 2013– Time: 17:30 for 18:00 until 20:00

• Cape Town – Date: Wednesday, 21 August 2013– Time: 17:30 for 18:00 until 20:00

Traders Forum Meetings Traders Forum Meetings

• Presentation link will be emailed• Information session

– Open a trading account (EQT / SSF & CFD)– Add more funding– Trade & invest

• Subscribe to tools– The Stockbroker (CFD & SSF traders)– The Investor (Long-term Equity investors)

• Look out for– Upcoming Webinars (SSF/ CFD & TA)

• Good Luck & Happy Trading!

Summary: The Traders ForumSummary: The Traders Forum

Contact us

Thank YouShaun van den Berg

[email protected]

(011) 996 5254

This publication has been issued by PSG Online. It is confidential and issued for the information of clients only. It shall not be reproduced in whole or in part without our permission. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources which and persons whom we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgement as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report is provided for informational purposes only. No information contained herein, no opinion expressed and no recommendation made constitutes a representation by us or a solicitation for the purchase of any of the securities mentioned herein and we have no responsibility whatsoever arising here from or in consequence hereof. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mention herein may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions using their own independent advisers as they believe necessary and based upon their specific financial situations and investment objectives. The employees of PSG Online may from time to time own securities mentioned herein. Analyst Certification The research analyst who prepared this report certifies that the view expressed herein accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views about the subject security and issuer and that no part of his compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views contained in this report.

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the traders forum tuesday 12 th march 2013 presenter: shaun van den berg head of client education...

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