the transition to high school: initial hs experiences and 9 th grade failure jerald r. herting...

The Transition to High School:

Initial HS Experiences and 9th Grade Failure

Jerald R. HertingJerald R. Herting

October 19October 19thth

UW-BHS Project WorkshopUW-BHS Project Workshop

So why be concerned about the So why be concerned about the initial 9initial 9thth grade experience? grade experience?

9th Grade Facts 16% of first time 916% of first time 9thth graders have GPA < 1 graders have GPA < 1

• 37% have GPA below 2.037% have GPA below 2.0

35% of all students fail at least one class during 35% of all students fail at least one class during first semester of 9first semester of 9thth grade grade• Prevalent across all student subgroups Prevalent across all student subgroups

99thth Grade downturn is experienced across a Grade downturn is experienced across a spectrum of 8spectrum of 8thth grade performance (i.e. not just grade performance (i.e. not just the past poor performers)the past poor performers)

99thth Grade GPA is major predictor of high school Grade GPA is major predictor of high school completioncompletion

A place for policy and interventionA place for policy and intervention

Understanding the risks and processes of Understanding the risks and processes of success and failure identify what can be success and failure identify what can be changedchanged

Intervention programs/initiatives have Intervention programs/initiatives have targeted features of this transition and it is targeted features of this transition and it is worthwhile to examine these program worthwhile to examine these program effects effects • To what degree are targeted features related To what degree are targeted features related

to 9to 9thth grade success or failure grade success or failure

Transition to High School Study 99thth grade survey of students grade survey of students

• ~ 65 question ‘pencil and paper’ survey of all 9~ 65 question ‘pencil and paper’ survey of all 9thth graders graders• Conducted 6Conducted 6thth week of classes—prior to quarter grades week of classes—prior to quarter grades• Educational experiences and expectationsEducational experiences and expectations

88thth grade survey of teachers grade survey of teachers• All 8All 8thth grade teachers evaluate the likelihood that the grade teachers evaluate the likelihood that the

student will have academic or behavioral problems or be at student will have academic or behavioral problems or be at risk of dropping out in high school.risk of dropping out in high school.

School recordsSchool records• Match school records (grades, etc) & surveysMatch school records (grades, etc) & surveys

Coverage (Year 2004 and 2005)Coverage (Year 2004 and 2005)• Response rate ~71% for students enrolled in district for 8Response rate ~71% for students enrolled in district for 8thth

and 9and 9thth grades grades

Making the transitionMaking the transition

Family and SES Risk Factors

Initial High School

Experiences

8th Grade Performance

9th Grade Failure

Theoretical Model

Family and SES

Risk Factors

Aspects of Initial HS

Experiences:Preparedness

OrientationEngagement


9th Grade Failure

Intervention Model

Key features of Key features of initial 9initial 9thth grade experience grade experience

Preparedness (lack of)Preparedness (lack of) 4 items4 items ““I find it difficult to be ready for class“I find it difficult to be ready for class“

Achievement OrientationAchievement Orientation 1 item1 item ““How far would you like to go in school”How far would you like to go in school”

School Engagement/Attachment School Engagement/Attachment 7 items7 items ““I think that it is important to have a high I think that it is important to have a high

grade point average”grade point average”

Some descriptive bivariate relationsSome descriptive bivariate relations

Risk and Family SESRisk and Family SES

88thth grade performance grade performance

Initial experience in HSInitial experience in HS

9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Gender

2.66

2.23*

Female Male

*Statistically significant difference at the .01 level

9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Family Intactness

2.58

2.17*

Living w/ 2 Parents Not Living w/ 2 Parents


9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by 8th Grade GPA

1.76

3.21*

8th GPA LE 3.0 8th GPA GT 3.0

8th GPA: Median = 2.95 Mean = 2.79*Statistically significant difference at the .01 level

9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Student Academic Orientation: Educational Expectations

1.94

2.87*2.66

Expect < BA Expect BA Expect > BA


9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Student Academic Preparation: Perception of Workload in 9th grade

2.82

2.10*

Below Median: Work Load is Not Difficult Above Median: Work Load is Difficult

*Statistically significant difference at the .01 levelNote: A high value on scale indicates difficult workload

9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Student Academic Engagement Scale

2.11

2.80*

Below Median: Lower Levels ofEngagement in School

Above Median: Higher Levels ofEngagement in School


Family and SES Risk Factors

Initial High School

Experiences


9th Grade Failure

Multivariate Analysis—Part One

What predicts initial HS experiences

Preparedness (lack of)Preparedness (lack of)• 88thth grade performance, ethnicity, gender, grade performance, ethnicity, gender,

parental educationparental education Achievement OrientationAchievement Orientation

• 88thth grade performance, ethnicity, gender, grade performance, ethnicity, gender, parental education, low SESparental education, low SES

EngagementEngagement• 88thth grade performance, ethnicity, parental grade performance, ethnicity, parental

educationeducation

Multivariate Analysis—Part Two

Family and SES

Risk Factors





9th Grade Failure

Predicting 9Predicting 9thth Grade GPA Grade GPA Effect p-value

Predictors:*

8th grade GPA .72 .00

Initial High School Experience

Preparedness (lack of) - .26 .00

Orientation .04 .00

Engagement .20 .00

R-square .61

*controls for gender, ethnicity, parental education, SES, family structure, and cohort

Discussion/SummaryDiscussion/Summary

Direct impact of initial HS experienceDirect impact of initial HS experience• Preparedness, orientation, engagement all Preparedness, orientation, engagement all

affect 9affect 9thth grade performance grade performance

Continued effects of past achievementContinued effects of past achievement

Continued effects of backgroundContinued effects of background

Family and SES

Risk Factors





9th Grade Failure

Strategic Intervention

Next stepsNext steps Explore the role of school contextExplore the role of school context

• Effects of initiatives at middle schoolsEffects of initiatives at middle schools• Effects of WSA Effects of WSA

Presence of scholarshipPresence of scholarship Restructuring of HSRestructuring of HS

Two features to exploreTwo features to explore• Do such initiatives add directly to prevent Do such initiatives add directly to prevent

failure/encourage achievementfailure/encourage achievement• Do they enhance effects of initial HS Do they enhance effects of initial HS

experienceexperience

Thanks to---Thanks to---

BHS study groupBHS study group Nick Pharris-Ciurej and Patty Glynn Nick Pharris-Ciurej and Patty Glynn

for providing assistance with data for providing assistance with data and analysisand analysis

Joe Willhoft and Robin Munson for Joe Willhoft and Robin Munson for initial help in starting the 9initial help in starting the 9thth grade grade projectproject

Tacoma Public SchoolsTacoma Public Schools

9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Race/Ethnicity

2.08 2.091.94

2.59*2.74*

AfricanAmerican

Asian Hispanic NativeAmerican

White

*A statistically significant difference exists between this and all other groups

Median 3.05Median 2.12 Median 2.19 Median 1.92 Median 2.78

Predicting 9Predicting 9thth Grade GPA Grade GPA Effect p-value

Predictors:

Constant - .32 .09

Year entered HS .04 .09

Female (male reference) .07 .01

Asian .12 .00

African American - .18 .00

Hispanic - .13 .02

Native American (white reference) - .14 .17

Parental Education (years) .01 .05

Low SES - .25 .00

Non-Intact Family - .10 .00

8th grade GPA .72 .00

Initial High School Experience

Preparedness (perceived high workload) - .26 .00

Orientation .04 .00

Engagement .20 .00

R-square .61

the transition to high school: initial hs experiences and 9 th grade failure jerald r. herting...

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