the tsupitero newsletter 06-25-2013

The Tsupitero Newsletter is a daily Technical Analysis report by Miko S. Sayo. The report is divided into three parts:

1. A daily Technical Analysis report of the PSEi;

2. A comprehensive Technical Analysis report of the most active and volatile stock during the day; and,

3. Recommended stocks for tsupita (short-term) trades, and, notes for Tsupiteros, which includes the following: the top 10 stocks that foreign funds are buying and selling; the top 10 most active stocks; the top 10 most volatile stocks; and, the top 10 gainers and losers for the day. These statistics would exclude stocks that are illiquid.

The comprehensive Technical Analysis report of the most volatile and most active stock during the day is divided between a Technical Analysis for Tsupiteros (short-term traders) and a Technical Analysis for Position Traders. Each of these Technical Analyses will include such data as its daily chart, support, resistance, trend, average true range, relative strength vs. the Phisix, a discussion of the technical character of the stock and a recommendation. Included also in the analysis of each of these stocks are other practical information such as the top three buying and selling brokers for the past five days, the amount that these brokers bought and sold for the past five days, the net foreign buying and/or selling for the past five days and the news or rumor currently affecting the movement of the stock in the short-term.

With regards to the "Recommended stocks for Tsupita" section of the newsletter, I usually choose around 3 stocks that are actually my best bets for a short-term trade or for a Tsupita. With each stock recommendation, there is a short technical description of the stock as well as my suggested trigger for buying the stock.

The cost of a one-month subscription to the Tsupitero newsletter is P1,000.00. To subscribe to the Tsupitero newsletter, please email Miko at [email protected]. One may pay by simply making an over-the-counter deposit to the following bank account:

BPI Savings Account No. 3149-0491-25

Account Name – Michael S. Sayo

The Tsupitero newsletter will be emailed everyday on or before 9:00 in the evening.

The PSEi (Jun 25, 2013) Open – 5,923.85 High – 5,991.43 Low – 5,678.73 Close – 5,789.06 Value – P12,815,383,572

Advances – 29 Declines – 168 Unchanged – 18 Foreign Buying – P6,911,756,393

Foreign Selling – P8,780,389,394

Panic Continues but Now Testing Support

Charts is courtesy of Metastock

Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros: Medium-term/Position Traders:

Support – 5550 to 5678 Support – 5000

Resistance – 6200 Resistance – 6750

Trend – Down Trend – Sideways to Down

ATR – 240pts. ATR – 470pts.

Recommendation – Buy as low as possible Recommendation – Avoid

On the back of another 139 point drop in the Dow last night and another almost P1.9 billion net selling by foreign funds, the PSEi was down by as much as 293 points at one point in time. We closed the day down by 181 points but we may have closed higher if not for some force closings. As of today, we are now down by five straight days in a row and, from the way I see it, we ought to find a short-term bottom soon, if not it did it already today. We will confirm if we have found a short-term bottom by tomorrow. With the market now in a panic and a lot of stocks now doing parabolic drops, I am guessing that an equally strong rally could occur soon. Take note, the average volatility of the market now is 240 points, thus, this market can potentially climb by 500 points in just two days. If we do bottom out somewhere here, I would expect prices to rally towards the 6200 level, at the very least. With just three days to go before window-dressing season on Friday, I do think that the more aggressive Tsupitero should now try and find a bottom. Still, more conservative Tsupiteros are still recommended to just stay in the sidelines. Position-traders, on the other hand, are still recommended to just enjoy your vacation in Boracay.

Tsupitero Index

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Megaworld Corp. (MEG) Open – 3.02 High – 3.09 Low – 2.75 Close – 2.90 Value – P516,863,000

Prices Continue to do Parabolic Drop but Now Trading at Extremely Oversold Condition

MEG continued to drop lower today and is now even doing a parabola (vertical drop). Notice how prices slowly accelerated to the downside as its downward channel became steeper and steeper. Today, it accelerated too much that it even broke below the downward channel itself. From the way I understand market behavior, parabolic drops are capitulation stages and may indicate that a short-term bottom is near. Actually, the short-term bottom may have actually formed already today (cross your fingers). If ever MEG did bottom-out today, then, a rally going towards 3.35 would not be impossible. If not, then, the next line of defense would now be at the psychological 2.50 level, if not 2.63. More aggressive Tsupiteros are still recommended to buy this stock as low as you can. For the more conservative Tsupitero, just continue to stay in the sidelines.

MEG Technical Analysis

Support Resistance Trend ATR Recommendation

Tsupitero 2.63 to 2.75 3.35 to 3.45 Down 0.27 Buy as low as possible

Position Trader 2.50 3.75 Sideways to Down

0.35 Take profits on strength

MEG Top Buying and Selling Brokers

Wednesday

Jun 19, 2013 Thursday

Jun 20, 2013 Friday

Jun 21, 2013 Monday

Jun 24, 2013 Tuesday

Jun 25, 2013

Buyers

SB – 55.609M Macquarie – 8.852M

BDO – 7.067M FirstMetro – 5.635M Thing-On – 3.600M

SB – 43.282M Wealth – 14.037M Tower – 6.093M

Valueqst – 3.455M Eastern – 3.327M

FirstOrient – 59.59M Wealth – 51.682M COL – 23.595M

Citisec – 11.813M Abacus – 11.444M

Macquarie – 28.32M Star – 22.954M

UCPB – 10.618M PCCI – 9.711M

JPMorgan – 7.987M

COL – 45.661M SB – 25.815M Star – 22.544M

Wealth – 14.298M Tower – 13.371M

Sellers

Regis – 28.795M CreditSui – 12.916M Goldstar – 10.756M Abacus – 10.464M

DBP-Daiwa – 7.17M

Thing-On – 21.064M UBS – 13.299M COL – 8.311M BA – 7.711M BPI – 7.150M

Regis – 131.054M DBP-Daiwa – 66.1M Macquarie – 27.82M

Public – 21.996M Mandarin – 4.623M

Regis – 41.862M COL – 33.998M

PhilEquity – 25.403M FirstOrient – 10.86M

Citisec – 10.118M

ATR – 50.699M CLSA – 42.673M

Macquarie – 33.86M Bernad – 32.896M

FirstOrient – 14.30M

MEG Net Foreign Activity

Amount 17,725,010 23,414,360 (267,460,400) (72,838,140) (148,366,550)

MEG News/Rumors

Annual Stockholders’ Meeting on July 18, 2013. Record date on Jun 7, 2013. Subscription to GERI and ELI shares. http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2013/pdf/dc2013-5097_MEG.pdf

• When prices form parabolic drops after a long downtrend, it normally marks the end of the downtrend. A lot of stocks are now doing parabolic drops. Notice that most of my recommendations are no longer dropping as much as other stocks now. That’s because they already did parabolic drops. In the table below are top losers in the last five days as well as the most oversold stocks relative to their volatility. Those stocks, especially those that are most oversold relative to volatility, are the ones that could potentially bounce back the strongest once this market rallies. Once again, the only problem is how to find the bottom. This set-up is only suited for more aggressive Tsupiteros. For the more conservative Tsupitero, I would suggest that you do not trade this market at all at the moment.

Recommended Stocks for Tsupiteros


AP 29.20 34.00 Down 1.80 Buy as low as possible

Comments: Trying to hold above 30.00. May begin to rally if it does.


FPH 68 - 70 87.00 Down 5.80 Buy as low as possible



PF 198 - 200 240 / 255 Down 17.00 Buy as low as possible

Comments: Continuing to drop but now trading at extremely oversold conditions.


PX 8.30 / 8.80 12.00 Down 1.00 Buy as low as possible



SCC 220.00 260.00 Down 9.75 Buy as low as possible


ORE -33.00% ORE -33.00%

MCP -31.28% BEL -21.10%

PXP -30.98% MCP -31.28%

LCB -30.65% CPG -29.48%

LC -30.51% PIP -19.52%

CPG -29.48% MA -25.64%

MMI -28.06% AT -20.59%

MA -25.64% HI -20.73%

PX -24.55% MEG -18.77%

BLOOM -22.08% DNL -20.57%

Top Losers last 5 Days Relative to Volatility

Most Oversold

Technical Analysis of Selected Stocks

Today’s Notes for Tsupiteros


AGI 19.7 - 20.00 23.00 - 23.50 Down 1.70 Buy as low as possible



CPG 1.07 / 1.20 1.45 / 1.65 Down 0.15 Buy as low as possible

Comments: Continuing to trend down but now trading at extremely oversold conditions.


MBT 96.50 113 - 115 Down 7.15 Buy as low as possible



MCP 6.5 - 7.00 10.00 - 10.50 Down 1.15 Buy as low as possible

Comments: Continuing to drop but now approaching its support at 6.50 to 7.00.


MPI 4.60 5.25 / 5.50 Down 0.42 Buy as low as possible


` Top Ten Net Foreign Buying Stock Top Ten Most Active Stock Top Ten Gainers

GTCAP P52,022,980 TEL P1,006,038,010 GERI 3.93%

LTG P50,702,498 ALI P959,261,800 SMPH 3.21%

URC P41,406,369 MBT P791,318,293 SMDC 1.65%

NIKL P37,119,142 SM P678,323,570 RFM 1.55%

AP P36,371,305 AGI P655,311,360 MWC 1.36%

PCOR P17,868,876 SMPH P632,183,138 FPH 1.20%

OPMB P17,100,000 URC P572,030,968 PX 1.20%

APM P16,073,144 BPI P532,117,633 COSCO 1.16%

UBP P15,392,690 AC P531,040,100 MER 0.98%

VLL P13,805,702 MEG P516,863,000 SCC 0.87%

Stock Top Ten Net Foreign Selling Stock Top Ten Most Volatile Stock Top Ten Losers

TEL (P433,612,630) HI 34.70% ORE -26.37%

MBT (P233,846,909) ORE 26.37% MMI -20.00%

AC (P232,953,540) MMI 20.00% CPG -13.48%

SM (P228,589,700) PXP 18.27% PXP -13.46%

MEG (P148,366,550) EEI 16.84% BEL -11.54%

ALI (P142,103,695) DMPL 16.74% OV -10.53%

AEV (P104,364,990) CPG 16.31% EEI -9.77%

MPI (P81,335,511) MCP 15.83% AC -9.19%

ICT (P70,455,725) BEL 15.19% BLOOM -8.10%

SECB (P66,205,014) AUB 13.92% ABSP -7.63%

Important Notice - The Technical Analysis and Recommendation for Tsupiteros are meant to be used by Traders who have a holding period of between one day and two weeks. The Technical Analysis and Recommendation for Position Traders are meant to be used by Traders who have a holding period of between two weeks and three months. Traders who have a holding period of more than three months are not advised to use this newsletter.

Legend: + recommend to buy if resistance is taken out to the upside * recommended stop ^ recommendation has changed from the previous day

Glossary of Terms:

1. Support - A historical price level at which falling prices have stopped falling and either moved sideways or reversed direction; usually seen as a price chart pattern. 2. Resistance - A historical price level at which rising prices have stopped rising and either moved sideways or reversed direction; usually seen as a price chart pattern. 3. Average True Range (ATR) – defined by Wilder to be the greatest of the following for each period:

• The distance from today’s high to today’s low • The distance from yesterday’s close to today’s high • The distance from yesterday’s close to today’s low

The Average True Range is simply the average of the true ranges over the past x periods (where x is specified by the user). In this newsletter, the ATR is computed in percentage terms. The ATR for Tsupiteros is calculated on a lookback period of 3 days, while the ATR for Position Traders is calculated on a lookback period of 3 weeks.

4. Trend - The general drift, tendency or bent of a set of statistical data as related to time.

Disclaimer – This document is published by Michael S. Sayo. The information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of the addressee only and it is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by the addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. Michael S. Sayo accepts no liability for any direct or incidental loss arising from the use of this document or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. I may or may not hold the securities that I recommend in this newsletter.

Author: Miko S. Sayo Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.tsupitero.com

the tsupitero newsletter 06-25-2013

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