the uneven future of evidence-based medicine
TRANSCRIPT
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The Uneven Future of Evidence-Based MedicineIda Sim MD, PhD
Professor of Medicine, UCSFCo-Director, Biomedical Informatics, CTSICo-Founder, Open mHealth
Open mHealth is a project of the Tides Center, funded by Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
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Thanks!• Russ Altman, Stanford University• Lisa Bero, University of Sydney• Julian Elliott, Monash University• Steve Goodman, Stanford University• Jeremy Grimshaw, Ottawa Health Research Institute• Santosh Kumar, University of Memphis• Chris Mavergames, Cochrane Collaboration• Susan Murphy, University of Michigan
• Diverse Data Meeting, Cochrane, Oct 3, 2015
Open mHealth is a project of the Tides Center, funded by Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
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"Antibiotics do not appear to be effective in treating acute laryngitis when assessing objective outcomes."
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“The information has been checked by medical doctors at Google and the Mayo Clinic for accuracy"1
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Se-ries1
Volume Velocity Variety
Big Data
1 1 0 10 1
100101
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Volume
1.5 GB 3-5 GB 15 GB
= 5 GB
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Velocity
2012 2014 2016 2018 20201
10
100
1000
Column1
billi
on G
Bs
5ZB
400 ZB
x 2x76d
x 2x3y
Healthcare Data Doubling Time
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Variety (physiology)• increasing ability to
passively sense bio-physiologic parameters
No conflicts with any product mentioned
MC10 BioStamp sensor
Google Lens
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Variety (behavior)• new field of
"emotion analytics"
No conflicts with any product mentioned
AffectivaMIT Medial Lab spin off
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Variety (built environment)• the Internet of
Things are sensors to our physical environment– 25 billion things
now– 75 billion by 2020
No conflicts with any product mentioned
Proactive Health Lab, Intel
Array of Things, City of Chicago
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Variety of Data
Traditional Non-traditional
Internet of Things
EHR data
clinical trial data
claims data
survey data
public health data
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Variety of Data
Structured Semi-structured Unstructured
EHR document
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Faster, larger, different studies
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Data – Information - Knowledge• Data
– raw observations, objective facts• Information
– data in meaningful context• Knowledge
– understanding about the world• explicit, codifiable (e.g. Wikipedia,
guideline)• tacit, not codifiable (e.g. expertise)
– also process knowledge, i.e., riding a bike
– useful for explaining, predicting, and guiding future action
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D-I-K Example
• Data– HgbA1C value 10.1%
• Information– occurred last Thursday– 10.1% is above normal
• Knowledge– high HgbA1C occurs in diabetes– associated with higher risk for
cardiovascular outcomes• Evidence?
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Evidence : basis for a claim of knowledge
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Evidence : data + "study" design + analysis
big, non-traditional data new machine learning methods
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“The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed."
William Gibson
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The Uneven Future of EBM
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Opinions About HPV Vaccination:Traditional Survey
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Opinions About HPV Vaccination:Using "Non-traditional" Data
• Non-traditional, unstructured data– keyword search of all Canadian newspapers –> 71 articles– 3073 comments from 1198 individuals
• Manual qualitative analysis– thematic analysis– sentiment analysis (positive, negative, neutral)
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Opinions About HPV Vaccination:Using "Non-traditional" Data
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Opinions About HPV Vaccination:"Non-traditional" Data and Machine Analytics
• Non-traditional data– scanned 130 million English language blogs and media items– identified 9,656 HPV-related posts over 7 months in 2008-9
• Machine learning– manually labeled set: 157 blog posts as positive or negative sentiment – training set: 1000 posts– supervised learning: support vector machine (SVM) method– overall accuracy of 70%
• SVM classifier run on remaining 8500+ posts
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Opinions About HPV Vaccination:"Non-traditional" Data and Machine Analytics
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Descriptive Study Designs: Add Data Mining
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Analytic Intent
• Classification e.g., diagnosis• Prediction: e.g., prognostic rules• Causal inference: e.g., does X cause Y• Explanation, modeling, simulation – biomedical, implementation
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Analytic Intent Data Source "Study" Design Analytic MethodClassification/Prediction
Structured
Causal Inference Semi-structured
Unstructured
Examples of Analytic Studies
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Analytic Intent Data Source "Study" Design Analytic MethodClassification/Prediction
Structured "Grab and go" Classical or Bayesian Statistics
Causal Inference Semi-structured
Unstructured
• data challenges– quality of EHR data– quality of data processing (e.g., NLP)
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Incorrect
Non-computable
Biased
Conflicting
Processed
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Analytic Intent Data Source "Study" Design Analytic MethodClassification/Prediction
Structured "Grab and go" Classical or Bayesian Statistics
Causal Inference Semi-structured
Unstructured
• data challenges– quality of EHR data– quality of data processing (e.g., NLP)
• analysis challenges– providing epi/biostsats expertise via a patients like mine button– how to combine near real-time EHR data with published evidence
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Accuracy 70%PPV 74%
Predicting Depression via Social Media. De Choudhury, M et al. Proceedings of the Seventh International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, p 128-137.
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Analytic Intent Data Source "Study" Design Analytic MethodClassification/Prediction
Structured "Grab and go" Classical or Bayesian Statistics
Causal Inference Semi-structured NLP, SVM, automated sentiment and affect analysis…
Unstructured
Predicting Depression via Social Media. De Choudhury, M et al. Proceedings of the Seventh International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, p 128-137.
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Classification/Prediction Study Designs
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Technology-Enabled Experimental Studies
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Staying Quit – A JITAI StudyJust-in-time Adaptive Intervention
• P: smokers who have just quit• I: just-in-time stress reduction • C: usual care• O: time to first lapse, rate of relapse
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Staying Quit – A JITAI Study
Detect stress Detect smoking
geolocation
stress
activity
MD2K Spark cloud platform
individualized smoking urge model
individualized efficacy model
adaptive microrandomization
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Analytic Intent Data Source "Study" Design Analytic MethodClassification/Prediction
Structured "Grab and go" Classical or Bayesian Statistics
Causal Inference Semi-structured JITAI with micro-randomization
Machine learning
Unstructured
• Team includes engineers, behavioral psychologists, biostatisticians, data scientists, computer scientists
• MD2K platform to be freely downloadable, for running other JITAI studies
• Enabling rigorous testing of sensor-driven complex behavioral interventions
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Machine Learning for Causality
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EHR Patients Encounters ICD-9 Diagnoses
Prescriptions Unstructured Notes
Stanford 1.8 m 19 m 35 m 11 m
Practice Fusion 1.1 m 5.5 m 6.8 m 5.5 m
• MI case finding (n=1503): GenePAD study and independently verified• Pharmacovigilance data mining pipeline:
• previously validated with 97.5% sensitivity and 39% specificityClin Pharmacol Ther. 2013 Jun;93(6):547-55. doi: 10.1038/clpt.2013.47.
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Analytic Intent Data Source "Study" Design Analytic MethodClassification/Prediction
Structured "Grab and go" Classical or Bayesian Statistics
Causal Inference Semi-structured Pharmacovigilance workflow
Pharmacovigilance pipeline
Unstructured
• Can anticipate more studies from reusable analytic platforms (e.g., MD2K JITAI) and pipelines (e.g., Stanford pharmacovigilance)– each with their own risks of bias
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Putting it All Together: Blue and Orange Boxes
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Deep Learning Cognitive Systems
http://www.ibm.com/analytics/watson-analytics/
Jeopardy! TV Game Show
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"Dr. Watson"
• Supervised and unsupervised learning– ingested textbooks, PubMed, took board exam questions, solved
NEJM cases– with Memorial Sloan Kettering: analyzed 605,000 pieces of medical
evidence, 2 m pages of text from 42 medical journals, assisted by 14,700 clinician hours
• Offering individualized oncology treatment advice– based on EHR data and "a synthesis of updated guidelines and
published research" (including Cochrane reviews)– provides users with evidence trail
• Now partnering with Epic
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EBM in a Box?
• "Watson and Epic software could … intelligently assist doctors and nurses by providing relevant evidence from the worldwide body of medical knowledge. Providers will be able to share patient-specific data with Watson in real time, within workflows, allowing Watson to bring forth critical evidence from medical literature and case studies that are most relevant to the patient’s care"
http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/46768.wss
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Two Cultures
Evidence-based Medicine1. Emphasis of empirical
evidence over expert judgment, and research over authority
2. Evidence must be appraised and synthesized with methodological rigor
Data Science 1. Emphasis of empirical
observation via data2. "More data is better than
better data"3. Trust in algorithms
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Two Epistemological Approaches
Evidence-based Medicine• Frequentist, hypothesis-
testing • Internal validity is
paramount: "best" evidence should be the main basis for decisions
• Decisions often narrowly framed: does this drug work?
Data Science• Data-driven rather than
hypothesis-testing• External validity is more
highly valued ("patients like mine")
• Decisions are personal, iterative, and contingent, involving tradeoffs and uncertainty (Bayesian, decision-theoretic)
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Potential Paths into Uneven Future1. Focus on improving today's EBM2. Incorporate studies that use big and non-
traditional data and machine analytics3. Pursue a synergy of EBM and data science
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"We gather and summarize the best evidence from research to help you make informed choices about treatment”
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Experimental or Observational
Analytic Studies
Data
Publications
EBM Pipeline
Decision Maker
Systematic Reviews
Hierarchy of Evidence
?
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Data and Information
DescriptionClassification/Prediction
Causal InferenceModeling/Simulation
A Synergy?
Decision Maker(s)
personalized, just-in-time, predictive decision support
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Data and Information
orange boxes
blue boxes
Evidence from Many Study Types
DescriptionClassification/Prediction
Causal InferenceModeling/Simulation
Synthesis of All Evidence
Decision Maker(s)
personalized, just-in-time, predictive decision support
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Data and Information
Need New Evidence?
Synthesis of All Evidence
DescriptionClassification/Prediction
Causal InferenceModeling/Simulation
Decision Maker(s)
personalized, just-in-time, predictive decision support
orange boxes
blue boxes
• complex, expensive, changing treatments
• insufficient evidence• out-of-date evidence
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Data and Information
Data-Driven Research Design
Synthesis of All Evidence
DescriptionClassification/Prediction
Causal InferenceModeling/Simulation
Decision Maker(s)
personalized, just-in-time, predictive decision support
orange boxes
blue boxes
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Data and Information
Evidence as a Service
Synthesis of All Evidence
DescriptionClassification/Prediction
Causal InferenceModeling/Simulation
Decision Maker(s)
personalized, just-in-time, predictive decision support
APIs
orange boxes
blue boxes
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Global Platform for Sharing IPDMRCT Framework for Data Sharing
Search Portal
Hosted Data and Services
Data Access Governance and Mechanisms
New Global Non-profit
Federated Data Access, hosted compute
environment
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Data and Information
Linked Data, Living Evidence Syntheses
RCTs
non-RCTs
Living Evidence Syntheses
DescriptionClassification/Prediction
Causal InferenceModeling/Simulation
Decision Maker(s)
personalized, just-in-time, predictive decision support
Linked data "publications"
Elliott JH, et al. Living Systematic Reviews: An Emerging Opportunity to Narrow the Evidence-Practice Gap. PLoS Med 11(2): e1001603. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001603
APIs
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EBM "Owns" the Blue Boxes
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Data
Information
Knowledge
Wisdom
Evidence : data + "study" design + analysis
D-I-K Pyramid for Clinical Decision-Making
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Data
Information
Knowledge
Wisdom
Cochrane's Enduring Vital Contributions
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Additional References• Laney, Douglas. "The Importance of 'Big Data': A Definition". Gartner. Retrieved 21 June 2012.• http://groups.ischool.berkeley.edu/archive/how-much-info/datapowers.html (shakespeare)• http://bitesizebio.com/8378/how-much-information-is-stored-in-the-human-genome/• http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/devices/a-temporary-tattoo-that-senses-through-your-
skin• http://www.businessinsider.com/75-billion-devices-will-be-connected-to-the-internet-by-
2020-2013-10• https://ci.uchicago.edu/press-releases/national-science-foundation-awards-31-million-array-t
hings-project
• http://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2015/08/06/myheart-counts-app-reaches-overseas-to-hong-kong-and-the-uk/
• http://www.pcori.org/sites/default/files/PCORI-Aspirin-Trial-Fact-Sheet.pdf
• http://www.cebm.net/study-designs/• https://methodology.psu.edu/media/techreports/14-126.pdf• http://www.infoworld.com/article/2613526/big-data/ibm-s-watson-becomes-a-cancer-
treatment-adviser.html• http://venturebeat.com/2014/07/18/inside-ibms-billion-dollar-bet-on-watson/2/• http://mrctcenter.org/framework-data-sharing