The use of class size and the Italian method

Collesi, Guerrucci, Versace, Zannoni

Istat, Directorate of National Accounts

Daniela Collesi

ISTAT, Via Agostino Depretis 74/B, 00184 Rome, ITALY

daniela.collesi@istat.it

The general framework of Government output

Feasible innovations are to be introduced in order to give stability and reliability to the National Accounts estimations;

The underling data flows have to be monitored over time to provide for the sustainability of the methodologies;

The implementation should be performed for the comprehensive and full picture of government production.

Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

The sensitivity of the innovations to be introduced in the National Account framework evidences that:

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OUTPUT METHODS

The reclassification of public employment derived from the information included in the 8th Census (wider concentrations of public employment on NACE L);

The construction of the bridge-tables between third level of COFOG classification and the CPA (fifth digit) for the different kind of public institutions;

The better specification of the research and development activities performed by Government units mainly for the Universities.

The determination of secondary productions.

The innovations introduced in the National Account revision for the public component, concerned:

Main revisions for Government output estimation at current prices – 1/2

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Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Main revisions for Government output estimation at current prices – 2/2

Such revision has required a new framework for the calculation of the production of Government, determining the new structure implemented according to the supply and use scheme

Supply matrix of non market output for General government – percentage distribution at current prices – Year 2000

A-K L M N O Tot

A-K 4,67 0,22 0,02 0,08 0 4,99 L 0,01 44,66 0 0 0 44,67 M 0 0 25,23 0 0 25,23 N 0 0 0,01 22,71 0 22,72

O 0 0,06 0,02 0 2,31 2,39

Tot 4,68 44,94 25,28 22,79 2,31 100,00

Supply matrix – Year 2000 – Ratio between Government non market output and production of the Total economy

A-K L M N O Tot

A-K 0,46 100,00 8,58 39,31 0,26 0,49 L 100,00 99,90 - - 100,00 99,90 M 0,38 100,00 80,59 100,00 100,00 80,42 N 0,32 - 100,00 53,74 - 52,97

O - 100,00 100,00 - 6,63 6,75

Tot 0,46 99,9 80,14 53,68 6,37 8,58

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Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

The passage from a fixed-base system, with 1995 as base year, to a system that evaluates the aggregates at prices of the previous year;

Construction of annual supply matrices at prices of the previous year, distinguished per General Government and Non-profit Institutions serving households;

Deflation of the production for industries of non-market activities

Main innovations regarding the deflation process

The general revision of the National Accounts with regard to the deflation procedures has been finalized to use methodologies that provided for output indicators, especially as regards the provision of individual services, such as health and education.

More than 45% of the total government output is directly calculated in volume terms

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Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

European comparisons of government expenditure on education: an overview - 1/3

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EDUCATION

Government final consumption expenditure represents, on average, 20% of GDP, having a maximum for Sweden, more than 27% in the most recent years, and a minimum for Ireland, at around 15 per cent in the same period.

Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP

Geo 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Austria 18,4 18,2 18,2 18,3 18,1 18,1 Belgium 21,3 21,8 22,5 23,0 - - Denmark 25,1 25,7 26,2 26,5 26,6 25,9 Finland 20,3 20,4 21,0 21,7 21,9 22,1 France 22,9 22,8 23,4 23,7 23,7 23,7 Germany 19,0 18,9 19,2 19,3 18,8 18,7 Greece 17,3 16,8 17,5 16,4 16,5 0,0 I reland 13,8 14,7 15,1 15,3 15,8 - I taly 18,4 19,0 19,2 19,7 19,8 20,2 Luxembourg 15,1 16,1 16,2 16,4 17,1 17,0 Netherlands 22,0 22,6 23,7 24,5 24,3 24,1 Portugal 19,3 19,7 20,0 20,3 20,6 21,1 Spain - - - - - - Sweden 26,4 26,9 27,8 28,1 27,5 - United Kingdom 19,1 19,5 20,3 21,0 21,3 21,8

Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

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EDUCATION

European comparisons of government expenditure on education: an overview - 2/3Education is, on average, 22% of the Total Final consumption expenditure, reaching its maximum for Portugal, 30%, and the minimum for Ireland and UK, that spend 17% of P3 on education.

Geo 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Austria 28,3 28,4 28,3 28,3 27,8 27,7 Belgium 25,5 25,6 25,4 25,0 - - Denmark 23,3 23,1 23,2 23,0 23,6 23,5 Germany 18,3 18,3 18,5 18,6 18,7 18,5 I reland 16,7 16,1 16,4 17,2 17,2 - Greece 17,7 19,9 19,9 23,5 23,1 - Spain - - - - - - France 22,3 22,0 22,0 21,7 20,7 20,6 I taly 22,5 22,0 21,7 21,7 20,3 20,8 Luxembourg 24,2 24,0 24,2 24,2 23,9 23,2 Netherlands 18,0 18,4 18,3 18,3 18,5 18,8 Portugal 30,0 29,9 30,3 29,8 29,4 29,2 Finland 21,4 21,6 20,9 20,7 20,5 20,2 Sweden 22,8 23,4 23,6 23,5 24,6 - United Kingdom 17,4 17,6 17,7 17,4 17,2 16,9

Education % of Final consumption expenditure

European comparisons of government expenditure on education: an overview - 3/3

OUTPUT METHODS

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Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

On average European countries devote more than 11 % of their total government expenditure to education, with a maximum of 16 % for Portugal and a minimum of 6 % for Greece.

Geo 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Austria 11,5 11,5 11,7 11,7 11,9 12,0 Belgium 11,5 11,7 11,8 11,6 - - Denmark 14,7 14,8 14,9 14,8 14,9 15,0 Germany 9,3 8,9 9,0 8,9 9,0 8,9 I reland 12,8 12,9 12,7 12,8 13,3 - Greece 6,3 6,1 6,5 7,2 6,9 5,9 Spain 11,2 11,2 11,3 11,4 11,4 11,5 France 12,2 12,3 12,2 11,9 11,6 11,5 I taly 10,0 9,7 9,9 10,1 9,7 9,9 Luxembourg 11,5 12,0 11,5 11,7 11,9 11,6 Netherlands 10,6 10,7 10,9 11,0 11,2 11,3 Portugal 15,6 15,6 16,4 16,2 15,9 15,7 Finland 12,1 12,4 12,2 12,3 12,1 12,0 Sweden 12,0 12,7 12,8 12,6 13,1 - United Kingdom 12,4 12,9 13,5 13,3 13,2 13,0

Education: expenditure as a percentage of Total expenditure

OUTPUT methods: data sources and deflation methods

Sector Main data Sources Note

Education

La scuola statale: sintesi dei dati (anni scolastici 2001-2006), MIUR

Iscritti e immatricolati per anno accademico, MIUR;

Laureati e diplomati per anno solare, MIUR Banca dati sui corsi di studio, Ufficio di

Statistica del MIUR; Banca dati dei docenti di ruolo, MIUR Rilevazione dei bilanci consuntivi degli enti

universitari, Istat; Statistiche della formazione professionale: le

strutture, le attività e la spesa, ISFOL Rilevazione sul diritto allo studio universitario,

MIUR

The indices for scholastic and university education incorporate the quality correction

Output methods – Education

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Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Output methods – Education

The public production of educational services is divided into the followings areas of activity :

School system Vocational training University education Subsidiary services to education

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Table 1: Percentage composition of education output by type of service (current prices) Type of service 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 School system 87,2 86,7 86,5 86,8 85,7 85,6 85,6 Vocational training 4,3 4,5 4,3 4,1 4,7 4,5 4,6 University education 8,1 8,3 8,7 8,6 9,1 9,1 9,0 Subsidiary services to education 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,8 0,8 Total 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Education: School system -1/2

Public school system is supplied in state schools managed by Ministry of Education, University and Research, and in the other public schools managed by local authorities: Municipalities, Provinces and Regions.

Scholastic education is supplied mainly in state schools, and is divided into four levels:

pre-primary education; primary education; lower secondary; upper secondary education.

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Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Quantities Costs

Number of pupils in state schools and non-state schools broken down into the four levels of education, and in upper secondary education by type of institute:

- classical lyceum

- scientific lyceum

- teacher-training institutes and schools

- vocational institutes

- technical institutes

- art institutes and lyceums.

Detailed breakdown of the basic data is essential in order to ensure homogeneity among the elementary indices and the costs assigned to them.

The costs are based on the Cofog classification. The Division 9 - Education, divides the cost items that form the output value into sectors of activity.

For the part concerning services provided to individuals (groups from 9.1 to 9.6), the education expenses are classified in level categories based upon ISCED 97 classification.

Education: School system -2/2

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Data Sources

Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Education - School system: the quality adjustments

The semi-public nature of the educational service implies that it could be supposed that as the number of students per class increases, the individual attention that a teacher may dedicate to each of them decreases.

Estimate of conversion function for pre-primary education

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Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Education - School system: the quality adjustments

Estimate of conversion function for primary education n 0 ≤n ≤10 q= f(n) = max f(n)=f(25) -1/30n2+5/3n-10/3 n>10

n= number of pupils per class

Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

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EDUCATION

Education - School system: the quality adjustments

Estimate of conversion function for upper-secondary education

Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

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EDUCATION

Education - University

The field of observation of the public university education is defined as the state universities and the non-state universities, that under Regulation ESA95, are included in the General Government sector S13 .

The production of services supplied by universities is split in two CPA classes : Research and Development, for the part related to research Education, for the part concerning didactic services.

The first is deflated by the input method, while the second one is deflated with the output method.

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Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Education – University -1/5

The model used for estimating the unitary cost per student is defined by using a methodology based on the standard cost per student.

The index used for the university production is a PPY Laspeyres volume index, in which the weight is the per capita cost in the year t-1 and the quantity, referring to the current year t, is the number of enrolled students per

faculty.

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Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

18

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jtjtj

jtjtj

tt

sc

sc

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Education – University - 2/5

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Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Two indicators for this correction:The ratio between the enrolled “regular students” in the course SCjt and the total number of enrolled students Sjt The reduction of the distance between the actual number of years for graduation LEjt and the theoretical length LTjt.

The corrective factor applied is:

qj,t / qj, (t-1)

where qjt = ((SCj t / Sj, t) + (LTj, t / LEj,t)) / 2

Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Education – University - 3/5 Enrolled students, enrolled regular students and distance

from an effective situation per faculty

Enrolled students

(S)

Enrolled regular

students (SC)

Ratio(SC) / (S)

Enrolled students

(S)

Enrolled regular

students (SC)

Ratio(SC) / (S)

Enrolled students

(S)

Enrolled regular

students (SC)

Ratio(SC) / (S)

01 Sciences 124.760 73.187 0,59 133.360 81.099 0,61 143.799 85.678 0,60 02 Pharmacy 43.779 29.161 0,67 46.567 30.455 0,65 52.781 35.327 0,67 03 Medicine and Surgery 101.264 76.102 0,75 123.898 95.519 0,77 139.872 106.339 0,76 04 Engineering 211.330 124.087 0,59 224.309 131.774 0,59 229.995 129.031 0,56 05 Architecture 75.158 35.455 0,47 75.852 39.772 0,52 77.186 43.037 0,56 06 Agriculture 26.883 17.593 0,65 28.837 17.236 0,60 29.608 16.655 0,56 07 Veterinary Medicine 13.571 7.906 0,58 14.143 8.229 0,58 14.841 8.619 0,58 08 Sociology 24.777 16.947 0,68 14.713 7.358 0,50 17.749 8.569 0,48 09 Political science 90.194 46.280 0,51 95.943 54.318 0,57 100.815 56.522 0,56 10 Law 252.358 113.280 0,45 234.532 106.149 0,45 227.507 97.259 0,43 11 Letter 212.600 119.173 0,56 242.890 145.265 0,60 249.607 137.357 0,55 12 Language 45.475 28.046 0,62 52.120 32.218 0,62 55.796 31.251 0,56 13 Cultural Heritage 7.259 4.591 0,63 7.396 3.725 0,50 6.663 2.574 0,39 14 Psychology 30.170 19.057 0,63 44.220 30.497 0,69 48.375 29.485 0,61 15 Economics 206.755 107.894 0,52 207.555 117.379 0,57 207.215 114.205 0,55 16 Education 91.576 61.340 0,67 96.624 61.678 0,64 111.138 64.455 0,58 17 Statistics 6.146 3.223 0,52 4.746 2.537 0,53 4.000 2.479 0,62 18 Exercise and Sport Science 5.151 4.018 0,78 7.619 6.201 0,81 13.105 8.673 0,66 Total 1.569.206 887.340 0,57 1.655.324 971.409 0,59 1.730.052 977.515 0,57

Groups

Years2001 2003 2005

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EDUCATION

Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Education – University - 4/5

Actual and theoretical average time for degree, average reduction of distance from the theoretical time per faculty

Actual time for

graduation(LE)

Theoretical time for

graduation(LT)

Reduction of distance(LT) / (LE)

Actual time for

graduation(LE)

Theoretical time for

graduation(LT)

Reduction of distance(LT) / (LE)

Actual time for

graduation(LE)

Theoretical time for

graduation(LT)

Reduction of distance

(LT) / (LE)

01 Sciences 8,77 4,56 0,52 7,67 4,13 0,54 6,59 3,63 0,5502 Pharmacy 8,91 4,90 0,55 8,47 4,84 0,57 8,15 4,68 0,5703 Medicine and Surgery 7,18 4,50 0,63 6,05 3,92 0,65 5,65 3,71 0,6604 Engineering 9,31 4,73 0,51 7,67 4,27 0,56 6,86 3,82 0,5605 Architecture 10,21 4,89 0,48 8,28 4,46 0,54 7,51 4,10 0,5506 Agriculture 8,33 4,73 0,57 7,80 4,41 0,56 7,35 3,92 0,5307 Veterinary Medicine 9,11 4,93 0,54 8,57 4,85 0,57 8,30 4,60 0,5508 Sociology 7,79 3,99 0,51 8,06 3,87 0,48 7,78 3,65 0,4709 Political science 8,32 3,89 0,47 7,73 3,81 0,49 5,90 3,40 0,5810 Law 9,07 3,98 0,44 8,93 3,75 0,42 8,02 3,74 0,4711 Letter 8,55 4,01 0,47 7,90 3,92 0,50 6,95 3,60 0,5212 Language 8,25 3,93 0,48 7,50 3,84 0,51 6,77 3,53 0,5213 Cultural Heritage 9,17 3,97 0,43 8,31 3,89 0,47 8,08 3,70 0,4614 Psychology 8,88 5,00 0,56 7,26 4,50 0,62 6,26 3,87 0,6215 Economics 8,65 3,90 0,45 7,56 3,75 0,50 6,72 3,46 0,5116 Education 7,26 3,96 0,55 7,01 3,81 0,54 6,71 3,69 0,5517 Statistics 7,36 3,74 0,51 6,55 3,56 0,54 5,75 3,27 0,5718 Exercise and Sport Science 4,14 3,34 0,81 3,76 3,40 0,90 4,93 3,24 0,66Total 8,63 4,26 0,49 7,65 4,00 0,52 6,78 3,69 0,54

2005

Groups

2001 2003Years

OUTPUT METHODS

EDUCATION

INTRO

Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Education – University - 5/5 Synthetic quality indicator

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

01 Sciences 0,52 0,55 0,56 0,57 0,59 0,57 02 Pharmacy 0,56 0,61 0,60 0,61 0,63 0,62 03 Medicine and Surgery 0,76 0,69 0,70 0,71 0,71 0,71 04 Engineering 0,49 0,55 0,56 0,57 0,58 0,56 05 Architecture 0,39 0,48 0,50 0,53 0,55 0,55 06 Agriculture 0,56 0,61 0,59 0,58 0,57 0,55 07 Veterinary Medicine 0,51 0,56 0,55 0,57 0,57 0,57 08 Sociology 0,61 0,60 0,59 0,49 0,51 0,48 09 Political science 0,48 0,49 0,50 0,53 0,57 0,57 10 Law 0,46 0,44 0,44 0,44 0,46 0,45 11 Letter 0,52 0,51 0,52 0,55 0,56 0,53 12 Language 0,54 0,55 0,55 0,56 0,58 0,54 13 Cultural Heritage 0,56 0,53 0,51 0,49 0,46 0,42 14 Psychology 0,57 0,60 0,62 0,65 0,67 0,61 15 Economics 0,49 0,49 0,51 0,53 0,56 0,53 16 Education 0,60 0,61 0,61 0,59 0,59 0,56 17 Statistics 0,52 0,52 0,52 0,54 0,58 0,59 18 Exercise and Sport Science 0,84 0,79 0,74 0,86 0,75 0,66 Total 0,51 0,53 0,54 0,55 0,57 0,55

GroupsYears

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EDUCATION

Education – Vocational training and Subsidiary services to education

Vocational training

The field of analysis is made up of first level, second level and IFTS (Superior Technical Instruction and Training) training courses, supplied by the regions and autonomous provinces.

The quantities are represented by the number of students involved and costs refer to the COFOG function 9.3.0 (post secondary non tertiary education).

Subsidiary services to education

The services provided by the Bodies for the Right to university education (ADISU) concern all the activities supporting the university studies cycle.

The quantities are represented by the number of meals supplied and by the number of bed places assigned, and the prices are represented by the cost of production of the services.

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Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Education – The global volume index

The global index of educational service is a weighted average of the Lh,t mobile-based Laspeyres indices calculated for each type of service

hthth

thh

thth

tt qp

LqpL

)1(,)1(,

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i

hti

hti

hti

htih

tii

hti

th qp

q

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h=1,…,5 is the type of educational service: 1) State school 2) Public body schools (Local government) 3) University education 4) Vocational training 5) Subsidiary services to education i type of service included in activity h (in the case of scholastic education, these are the levels

of education) t I s the time unit qi I s the number of students, corrected with suitable quality factors for the services concerning

scholastic and university education.

)( )1(,)1(,hti

hti qp I s the cost sustained during the year t-1 for supplying each service i for the activity h

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OUTPUT METHODS

Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Education – The global volume index: the effect of the quality adjustment

The overall corrections for quality changes produce an increase of output in volume.

The correction effect can be attributed to the overcrowding of the classes used in the volume index calculation for the scholastic education and to the correction based on the two indicators that measure the outcome for the university education.

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Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method

Figure 1. Global volume index (PPY)

97.0

98.0

99.0

100.0

101.0

102.0

103.0

2001/00 2002/01 2003/02 2004/03 2005/04 2006/05

GLOBAL VOLUME INDEX WITHOUT CORRECTION

GLOBAL VOLUME INDEX WITH CORRECTION

Daniela Collesi

ISTAT, Via Agostino Depretis 74/B, 00184 Rome, ITALY

daniela.collesi@istat.it

Thank you!

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Daniela Collesi – The use of class size and the Italian method