Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner.Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: vendor.relations@gartner.com.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

The Virtualization Landscapeto 2010

Phil Sargeant

Making IT Matter

70% of IT budgets are

spent on maintaining what

we have.

Speed will become a

major business differentiator in a

connected world.

IT infrastructure must change to meet business demands, becoming more "real time."

We must harness the power of technology to improve IT infrastructure agility, cost and quality of service.

The RTE competes by using up-to-date information to progressively remove delays in managing and executing its critical detection, reporting, decision-

making and response business processes.

IT is a cost centre, and

costs must be minimized.

The IS organization owns the IT

strategy.Depth of Detection:

Sense Earlier

Agility of Response:Respond Faster

Reactive

Responsive

Optimizing

Prescient

Buffeted

IT is a profit centre,

providing value-based services

that drive business.

The IT strategy is inextricably linked with the

business strategy.

The Real-Time Enterprise (RTE)

The RTE Requires a Real Time Infrastructure - The VisionA real-time infrastructure is:

An IT infrastructure shared across customers, business units or applications ……where business policies and service-level agreements drive dynamic and automatic optimization of the IT infrastructure ……thereby reducing costs while increasing agility and quality of service.

Policies:IT service definitionsService agreements Business priorities

Services:That meet business requirements

Resources

Identities/Security

Workloads/Data

Self-discover, install and integrate.

Efficient use of resources to service policies.

Avoid, predict and react to failures.

Pro

visi

onin

gOptimizationA

vailability

The Road to Real-Time:The Infrastructure Maturity Model

Agility

Economics

Quality of Service

Basic

RationalizedVirtualized

Service-Based

StandardizedReduce

complexity Economies

of scaleFlexibility

Service-level

deliveryReact

Weeks Weeks to days

Weeks to minutes MinutesMonths to

weeks

Cost centre

Static usage

Flexible usage costing

Variable usage costing

Subsidized

Real-Time

Business agility

Minutes to secondsVariable business

investmentBasic SLAs

Class-of-service SLAs

Flexible SLAs

End-to-end SLAsNo SLAs Business

SLAs

Chaotic Proactive ServiceReactive ValueIT Management Process Maturity

The New Infrastructure: From Systems to a Virtualized Fabric

Infrastructure is on an inevitable and fundamental shift from physically integrated

components to logically composed virtualized fabrics dynamically built from

granular physical components.

Early trend examples:SANsVLANSBladesMulticore processorsVirtual machinesLinux and modular operating systems

IT virtualization is the pooling of IT resources in a way that masks the physical nature and boundaries of those resources from resource users.

Predictions:The major components in blades will not be standardized between

major suppliers by the end of 2008, but blades will be ubiquitous.

By year-end 2008, mature VM technologies for x86 servers will be essentially free and will be in use in

90% of the Fortune 500.Through 2008, storage virtualization

engines will primarily manage homogeneous disk storage.

Must think differently:Managing/automating virtualization sprawlHolistic capacity planningAsynchronous physical deployment, rapid logical deploymentChargebackLow-cost, commodity components

Survey: What is the single biggest hurdle to moving toward real-time infrastructure? (n = 761)

Tech/Infra. Maturity 28%Process Maturity 26%Organization/Culture 25%No Proven ROI 12%Vendor Lock-In 4%Other 4%

Designing Infrastructure ThroughVirtualization and Automation

Example Cost Benefit:1 admin. to 100+ servers

vs. 1 admin. to 5-10 servers

Example Speed Benefit:Roll out security patches in 1-4 hours

vs. 2-3 days Resources

Identities/Security

Workloads/Data

Pro

visi

onin

g

Optimization

Availability

Real-Time Infrastructure

Standardize Infrastructure

Automate

Standardize Process

Optimize

Survey: What is your main driver in moving

to a real-time infrastructure?

(n = 774)

Economics 34%Quality of Service 23%Agility 21%Business Alignment 14%Don't Know 8%

Infrastructure Maturity Model: Becoming Virtualized

Prior Situation:Assets operate on physical boundaries — no

flexibility, capacity is managed one asset at a time

Objective

Ability to Change

Pricing Scheme

Business Interface

Resource Utilization

Organization

IT Management

Processes

Virtualized

Flexibility, reduce costs

Weeks to minutes

Fixed shared costs

Infrastructure resources

pooled

Flexible SLAs

Shared pools

Pooled ownershipProactivePrediction, dynamic capacity

1) Virtualize InternallyMixed workload management, virtual machines, logical partitions, SANs, VLANsEnable re-positioning between assetsEnable dynamic capacity change processes (manual or automated)Centralize capacity planning

Inhibitors: Need for software pricing to become more usage-based; the need for software licensing to become less tied to specific hardware; political and ownership issues of assets; and the immaturity of technologies to enable virtualization

2) Virtualize ExternallyCreate dynamic resource chargeback mechanism (based on usage)

Inhibitors: Business

Virtualization Changes Virtually EverythingThrough 2010, virtualization will be the highest-impact trend in

infrastructure and operations:PlanOwnBuy

SpendingHardware

DeployPlanned Downtime

Unplanned DowntimeResource Management

AutomationApplication Deployment

Measure and ChargeThink

Silos to holisticEnabling alternative delivery modelsSynchronous projects to asynchronous capacityReducing wasted hardware, space and power expenseOver time, a shift to larger serversWeeks/months to days/minutesOff-hours to active hours Faster recovery, and cheaper disaster preparednessIndependently to pooledEnabling automation across a large pool of devicesIntroducing virtual software appliances Physical device counts to usage metricsDedicated devices to shared

Virtualization Trends: A Boiling Market, Lots of Moving Parts

Importance of ManagementCosts shift to management toolsBenefits shift to agility and valueRevenue will moderate to steady growth management marketSecurity will become greater concern

Software Platform ShiftSoftware pricing/licensing will lag behind technology through 2010Virtual software packages and appliances mainstream by 2010Balance of power tilts from Microsoft to OEMs, software vendors

Thin and CheapDefault, embedded, free

CompetitionViridian = market discontinuity

Client VirtualizationVirtualizing clients on servers will become common by 2009Client virtual machines will become the hot trend by 2010

The Impact of Virtualization

Virtualization will be the most significant trend in infrastructure and operations through 2010, changing:

As virtualization matures and becomes default, the “next big thing” will be automation.

How you planHow, what and when you buyHow and how quickly you deployHow you manageHow you chargeTechnology, process, culture

The Impact of Virtualization

Service Providers:Pricing models must change –more granular, more dynamicVirtualization drives economies of scale

Customers:End user reticence is big barrier to virtualizationMust expect service levels, not boxesFaster deployments = demand will go up

Operations:Must manage resources as pools (capacity planning, deployment, chargeback)Virtualization sprawl is a real concern –requires good accounting/chargeback

Software Vendors:Pricing and licensing must change (more flexibility)ISV licensing and pricing is big barrier to virtualization

IT Executives:Must consider virtualization as:

Part of strategyFoundation for automationChange in the relationship with customers

Rebalance skills toward business x86 Hardware Vendors:

Slowdown (or even temporary decline) while virtualization absorbedGradual shift toward larger systems

Virtualization: A Look at Both Sides of the Ledger

AdvantagesDisadvantages

• Enhances availability• Improves use• Reduces costs• Speeds provisioning• Loosens bindings• Increases consolidation• Reduces personnel*• Vendor openness• Creates optimism

• Magnifies failures• Affects performance• Encourages sprawl• Handicaps compliance• Complicates RCA• Creates "pods"• Requires new skills• Limits standardization• Engenders skepticism

* Supporting more with the current staff — not necessarily reducing head count, but rather improving productivity and efficiency.

Virtualization Problem Analysis: Peeling the Onion Isn't Easy

SANs

• Is the problem in the:- SAN?- VLAN? - Cluster? - Server hardware?- Hypervisor?- Guest OS?- Guest Java VM?- Guest application?

• Or is it somewhere else?- Think in terms of a service

VLANsVirtual PCs

Virtual Apps.

Server

Hypervisor/ Virtualization Layer

JVM

VM1

OS

JVM

App.

Cluster

SOA

Virtualizing the Data Centre: From Sprawl to Real-Time Infrastructure

Supplier Ramifications:x86 server market will struggle through 2010The “meta-OS” evolvesSoftware appliances emerge

2007 2008-2012

WorkloadsData

ResourcesIdentitiesPr

ovis

ioni

ng

Optimization

Availability

2010-2016Policies

Services

Hardware costs downFlexibility up

Service levels and service agility up

User Ramifications:Reshapes operational processes and service deliveryRequires management and automation strategy

VM Sprawl: Manage It Before It Manages You

The New Math:

One client alluded to it as being "addictive."

The Real Math:

V = Freecost

V =cost(Planning, Administration, Control, Optimization, Reclamation)

Virtualization: Abstraction Layers Enabling Alternative Delivery Models

Containers

"Viridian"

VPARs, Integrity VM

LPARs, z/VM,

PR/SM

Virtualization Technologies

Containers

Grid Computing

Infrastructure as a Service

Software Appliances

Applications

Operating Systems

Hardware

Predictions:By year-end 2008, a

mature hypervisor for x86 servers will be essentially

free.

Microsoft will deliver a hypervisor solution that

relies on Windows Longhorn Server as a

parent operating system in 2008.

By 2009, more than four million virtual machines will be installed on x86 servers, which is about

20% of the total potential market.Alternate

Delivery

Virtualization is not only VMwareVirtualization is not only VMware

Hypervisors Are Getting Thinner

Reduced OS managementLess code = smaller stability and attack surface, fewer patchesEnables a platform that OEMs can leverage (e.g., differentiating tools)

Service Console (an old version of RH Linux)

Dom 0 (Linux)

OS-Dependence "Thin" DirectionESX Server 3i no longer needs a service console (footprint = 32MB)Express OEM Edition now uses a thinner Dom 0 (footprint = 128-256MB)Viridian will offer Longhorn Server Core as option(footprint = 1-1.5GB)

Parent OS (Longhorn)

Hypervisor vendors are rushing toward "thinner" products — to embed in OEM hardware, grow market share, and improve quality and security.

Hypervisor

Guest Operating System

Guest Operating System

Service Console,

Parent OS, Dom 0

The Future of x86 Virtualization Vendors

2007

VMware77%

Xen5%

Microsoft9%

Several7%

None2%

N=219

Which virtual-machine solution will you be using for x86

servers in …?

Current course and speed make growth difficultMust grow share in 2007 (blue ocean becomes red)Business model must shift up, price pressureDramatic expansion up mgmt stack required –acquisitions/merger

VM management late 2007, hypervisor 2008Longhorn requirement slows ViridianManagement and virtual infrastructure is keyClient hypervisor 2009Silos and streaming for server 2009

Strongest base is homogeneous Linux Success depends on Microsoft’s failures (quality, schedule, management)Xen is opening for big management players to engage — but will they?

2009

VMware34%

Xen9%

Microsoft33%

Several22%

None2%

N=213

Capacity Planning

Virtualization Is a Collaborative Exercise —Stakeholders Will Vary by Scenario(s)

Business Admin.Dev./Test Ops. Backup/DR

Facilities

Consolidation

Preproduction

Provisioning

High availability

RTI

????

A

A

R R AR

R

C

A

C CC C C

R

AR RRI CR R CI C

R

Key: RACI = (R) responsible, (A) accountable, (I) informed, (C) consulted

• Advanced features, such as VMware's DRS, can optimize the virtual infrastructure, but services often span virtual and real resources.

• A service-oriented context requires an integrated management approach. This is often missing today.

• Don't just focus on tools; see to the information needs of key personnel.

Overall Focus: It's About the Service, Not Virtualization

BusinessService

JVM

Virtualized Resources

"Real" Resources

Integrated Management

Operationalizing Virtualization: New Approaches, New Concerns

ConfigurationVirtual resources vs. softwareManaging asset locationManaging dependenciesVMs as black boxes — e.g., appliances

ProblemMatching problems to moving assetsAdditional moving and changing parts

ChangeEase/speed of VM creationNew virtual changes V-to-P and P-to-V as a new step

ChargebackCapEx mapping to virtual deploymentsDynamic usage challengesDifferent physical hosts change metrics

SecurityNew privileged layer of software that will be targetedSeparation of admin. dutiesProtecting and patching offline VMsAuditing VM movement, changes and life cycles is inadequateImmature security and mgmt. tools

Performance/CapacityShift to holistic capacity planningVirtualization vs. SLA mgmt.Performance affected by changing set of cohosted VMs

Best Practices for Virtualization

Require rapid ROI– Competition drives price decline– Deploy with hardware

Know your applications– Avoid I/O-intensive applications– Focus on applications that

average less than 10 percent utilization on small servers

Combine VMs effectively – Consolidate dynamic VMs

together with lots of headroom– Consolidate static VMs together

at high utilization rates– Manage mission-critical VMs

differently than non-critical– Rough rule of thumb for 2007:

Five VMs per processor

Lock down the parent OS– Viridian will allow you to install a

full Longhorn OS as a parent OS (and applications) – just say no.

Beware software issues – Check vendor’s VM support policy– Understand vendor’s pricing and

licensing with respect to VMsPlan strategically

– Have a management plan: avoid VM sprawl

– Develop a longer-term strategy –virtualization is just one step

– Deployment, disaster recovery, capacity planning, planned downtime, chargeback

Recommendations

Virtualization is a trade-off of complexity ("no free-lunch theorem"). Understand the benefits and the challenges.Virtual server technology providers will raise the stakes in terms of management, but third parties will continue seeking to fill gaps.Virtual server environments are becoming "crystal palaces." The key to success will be planning regarding people and processes.

Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner.Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: vendor.relations@gartner.com.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

The Virtualization Landscapeto 2010

Phil Sargeant