the world market for diesel locomotives
DESCRIPTION
RailwaysTRANSCRIPT
SCI/VERKEHR Cologne 2009
THE WORLD MARKET FOR DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES
Vehicle Fleets, Procurements,
Manufacturers, Market Development
THE WORLD MARKET FOR DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES Vehicle Fleets, Procurements, Manufacturers, Market Development
SCI Verkehr GmbH is an independent consultancy company which specialises in the technology and economics of transport. We have close connections to the rail industry, with consultants in a wide range of specialist fields. We have an extensive network of experts in Germany and abroad, and we specialise in market and strategy aspects for the mobility sector. Our activities focus on companies in the transport and railway industry, logistics, public and private transport companies and transport and economics departments in public administration at federal, regional and community level.
Based on the current developments in rail transport, this study, entitled “Worldwide Market for Diesel Locomotives”, delivers an analysis and sound estimate of the market for diesel locomotives. The study provides a consistent continuation of the study "The Worldwide Market for Diesel Locomotives" which was published in 2006. With this, SCI Verkehr provides market and business information of competitive relevance on current volumes in the worldwide market for new vehicles and after-sales business. In addition, the study presents and evaluates key information about companies, technology and economics. In concrete terms, this market study of diesel locomotives contains: – A regionally differentiated look at the worldwide market for diesel locomotives including
an intensified analysis of all known markets of the individual countries – A comprehensive analysis of the current fleet stocks concerning operational purposes,
quantities and age structures as well as future procurement potential – Analysis of the current market shares of all manufacturers and customers of diesel
locomotives as well as a forecast of the future vehicle requirements – An overview of diesel locomotive manufacturers including a brief description of their
current range of products and services as well as contact details – An overview of the most important drivers behind the procurement and refurbishment of
diesel locomotives in the individual regions – A condensed presentation of the most important fleet-specific features of diesel
locomotives in the form of a diagram – A list of operators’ vehicle stocks and the current diesel locomotive procurements in the
annex to the study.
This Multi Client Study is based on numerous information sources, which are continuously analysed, validated and recorded in a database system.
The German version of the study is available from March 2009 and the English version from May 2009 at the price of EUR 2 800 + delivery costs and VAT.
Your contact
Christian Beßler Head of Marketing and Sales
Tel. +49-221-93178-20 Fax +49-221-93178-78 E-mail: [email protected]
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • THE WORLD MARKET FOR DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES 3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 Executive Summary: The World Market for Diesel Locomotives ............................... 15
2 Market Delimitation and Methodology of the Study.................................................... 23
2.1 Objective of the Market Analysis.............................................................................. 23
2.2 Delimitation of the Railway Technology Market ...................................................... 24
2.3 Market Analysis Methodology ................................................................................. 30
3 Manufacturers of Diesel Locomotives.......................................................................... 35
3.1 Global Players.......................................................................................................... 35
3.2 Other Manufacturers ................................................................................................ 42
4 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Western Europe.............................................. 61
4.1 Germany ................................................................................................................. 66
4.2 France ...................................................................................................................... 67
4.3 United Kingdom: ...................................................................................................... 69
4.4 Italy........................................................................................................................... 70
5 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Eastern Europe............................................... 71
5.1 Poland...................................................................................................................... 75
5.2 Czech Republic........................................................................................................ 76
5.3 Romania................................................................................................................... 77
6 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Asia ................................................................. 79
6.1 China........................................................................................................................ 82
6.2 India ......................................................................................................................... 83
7 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in North America ................................................ 85
8 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in South America................................................ 91
9 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in the CIS ............................................................ 95
9.1 Russia ...................................................................................................................... 99
9.2 Ukraine....................................................................................................................101
10 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Africa/the Middle East................................ 103
10.1 South Africa...........................................................................................................107
11 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Australia/Pacific ......................................... 109
Annex
Annex A: Fleet Overview by Region and Country Markets...................................................113
Annex B: Contact Addresses of Manufacturers....................................................................135
Annex C: Diesel Locomotive Stocks of the Railway Companies..........................................141
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • THE WORLD MARKET FOR DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES 4
The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Australia/Pacific
Vehicle installed base/age structure The railway network in this region is characterised by long overland lines. A low degree of electrification led to a dominance of diesel traction among the locomotives operated, for which nearly exclusively diesel-electric traction is used. Almost 80% of the diesel locomotive fleet is operated in Australia and 20% in New Zealand. The diesel locomotives of the Fiji Islands only form a small part of the total fleet. Around 65% of the operated diesel locomotives are operated in mainline transport and 35% in shunting operation.
Installed Base by Country [Number of Diesel Locomotives]
0 1 000 2 000 3 000
Fiji
New Zealand
Australia
Mainline locos Shunting locos© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Figure 1: Installed base overview diesel locomotives Australia/Pacific 2009 (by country)
Since 1960, diesel locomotives have constantly been procured in Australia/Pacific. Procurement peak took place in the 1980s followed by a decline in procurements in the 1990s and the beginning of the new millennium. The installed base has an average age of around 25 years and is currently being rejuvenated and extended by numerous procurement projects.
Age Structure of Installed Base [Number of Diesel Locomotives]
0
250
500
750
no info before1950
1950−1959 1960−1969 1970−1979 1980−1989 1990−1999 2000−2009
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Figure 1: Age structure diesel locomotives in Australia/Pacific 2009
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • THE WORLD MARKET FOR DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES 5
The market for Diesel Locomotives in Africa/the Middle East
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • THE WORLD MARKET FOR DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES 6
Manufacturers/products/market shares In the last five years, Electro-Motive Diesel sold the most diesel locomotives in the region. A total of 25% of the vehicles were delivered by EMD. A further 20% of the diesel locomotives came from China and were manufactured there by CNR or CSR. Alstom sold a modified version of the diesel-electric PRIMA to Iran. A total of 100 vehicles have been ordered by the Iran state railway. GE Transportation was very successful in the region with the Evolution series, which will be delivered to Egypt.
Figure 1: Market shares diesel
locomotives Africa/Middle East in
the period 2005–2009
Delivery by Manufacturer 2005 bis 2009 [Number of Diesel Locomotives]
27%
20%
18%
15%
5%
15%EMD
Chinese manufacturer
Alstom
General Electric
Lugansk Teplovoz
Other manufacturers
In total:~300 Diesel Locomotives
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Market volume and market development The current market volume for new diesel locomotives in Africa/the Middle East is around EUR 130 million per annum; for after-sales services, around EUR 200 million. This market development is influenced by the following drivers: Driver Brief description Importan
ce Trend
Transport demand An increase of the mining volume in the coal mining region, especially in the leading market of South Africa, will lead to an increased demand for traction in the long term. For this purpose mainly mainline locomotives will be needed.
Investment funds Funds for operation and vehicle procurement will increase. In Iran, Egypt and Algeria diesel locomotives are either currently being procured or there are concrete plans for their procurement. However, as the companies need investment funds in all segments of railway operation, the funds available are distributed accordingly.
Fleet structure The installed base, however, has a relatively low average age, in some submarkets of the region (e.g. South Africa and Iran) this average is higher so that SCI Verkehr anticipates an increase in replacement procurements in the coming five years.
Operational requirements
In order to increase transport capacity on existing lines, locomotives with higher drive power and higher availability will be ordered.
Infrastructure In the coming years network sections are increasingly going to be put into operation or old lines are going to be reactivated in the region. These projects include investment in infrastructure and traction.
Annex A
Eastern Europe - Overview
Installed Base / Country Delivery 2005−2009 / Country
Installed Base / Country [Number of D-locos]
0 1 000 2 000 3 000
Other Countries
Latvia
Lithuania
Serbia and Montenegro
Bulgaria
Slovakia
Turkey
Hungary
Romania
Czech Republic
Poland
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Delivery / Country [Number of D-locos]
0 20 40 60
Other Countries
Estonia
Poland
Serbia and Montenegro
Lithuania
Turkey
© SCI Verkehr GmbH Installed Base / Operator Delivery 2005−2009 / Market Shares
Installed Base / Operator [Number of D-locos]
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4
Other Operators
TCDD
CFR
CD
PKP
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
000
Delivery / Market Shares [Number of D-locos]
25 %
23 %
22 %
7 %
23 %Tülomsas
CZ Loko
Siemens
Transmashholding
Other Manufacturers
In total:~3 000 D-locos
© SCI Verkehr GmbH Installed Base / Power installed Delivery 2005−2009 / Power installed
Installed Base / Power installed [Number of D-locos]
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
no info <1.0 MW 1.0−1.9 MW 2.0−2.9 MW 3.0−4.9 MW ≥5.0 MW
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Delivery / Power installed [Number of D-locos]
0
25
50
75
100
no info <1.0 MW 1.0−1.9 MW 2.0−2.9 MW 3.0−4.9 MW ≥5.0 MW
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • THE WORLD MARKET FOR DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES 7
Annex C
Region Country Operator Number of
locomotives
Identification Main supplier Delivery
from
Delivery
to
Gauge
[mm]
Top-speed
[km/h]
Power
[kW]
Mode of drive
Eastern Europe Latvia Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai 81 2M62 Lugansk 1976 1982 1524 100 2940 diesel-electric
Eastern Europe Latvia Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai 10 2M62 Lugansk 1976 1982 1524 diesel-electric
Eastern Europe Latvia Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai 12 TEP60 Kolomensky Zavod 1970 1970 1524 160 2208 diesel-electric
Eastern Europe Latvia Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai 48 TEM2 Bryansk 1960 1960 1524 100 883 diesel-electric
Eastern Europe Latvia Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai 1 TGK2 unknown 1958 1958 1524 60 185 diesel-hydraulic
Eastern Europe Latvia Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai 3 TU2 unknown 1956 1956 750 50 242 diesel-electric
Eastern Europe Lithuania State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" 58 ChME3 CKD 1965 1992 1524 95 993 diesel-electric
Eastern Europe Lithuania State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" 14 2TE10U Lugansk 1989 1989 1524 100 4400 diesel-electric
Eastern Europe Lithuania State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" 70 2M62 Lugansk 1976 1988 1524 100 2540 diesel-electric
Eastern Europe Lithuania State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" 14 TEP70 Kolomna 1987 1988 1524 160 2994 diesel-electric
Eastern Europe Lithuania State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" 2 TU7 Kambarka 1988 1988 750 50 294 diesel-hydraulic
Eastern Europe Lithuania State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" 10 2TE10M Lugansk 1981 1981 1524 100 4400 diesel-electric
Eastern Europe Lithuania State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" 32 M62 Lugansk 1970 1970 1524 100 1270 diesel-electric
Eastern Europe Lithuania State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" 4 TEM2 Bryansk 1960 1960 1524 100 882 diesel-electric
Eastern Europe Lithuania State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" 2 TU2 Kaluga 1958 1958 750 50 242 diesel-electric
Eastern Europe Mazedonia Makedonski Zeleznici 2 667 BMZ-USSR 1981 1981 1435 100 882 diesel-electric
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