theory of plate tectonics an explanation of science and prediction

Theory of Plate TectonicsTheory of Plate Tectonics

An explanation of science and An explanation of science and prediction prediction

Real life situation Real life situation

On December 26On December 26th th 2004 there was a great 2004 there was a great earth quake that happened in Sumatra earth quake that happened in Sumatra Andaman. Actually scientists didn’t predict Andaman. Actually scientists didn’t predict the event would occur because, due to the the event would occur because, due to the theory, the area was believed to be theory, the area was believed to be immune to such giant earth quakes and immune to such giant earth quakes and hence, this made scientists rethink the hence, this made scientists rethink the theory of plate tectonics. theory of plate tectonics. (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/01/070109142217.htm)(http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/01/070109142217.htm)

Continued …Continued …

The theory says that giant earth quakes The theory says that giant earth quakes occur in fast, young subduction zones.occur in fast, young subduction zones.

However, this particular incident happened However, this particular incident happened in a middle aged and slowly moving in a middle aged and slowly moving subduction zone.subduction zone.

Knowledge issue Knowledge issue

To what extent does prediction test To what extent does prediction test the validity of a scientific theory?the validity of a scientific theory?

Scientific theoryScientific theory

A scientific theory is a well supported body of A scientific theory is a well supported body of interconnected statements that explains interconnected statements that explains observations and can be used to make testable observations and can be used to make testable predictions. predictions. ((en.wikipedia.org/wiki/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ScientificScientific__theorytheory ) )

Roles of Scientific TheoryRoles of Scientific Theory

Prediction Prediction Explanatory powersExplanatory powers

What are the bases for predictionWhat are the bases for prediction

Analysis of patterns Analysis of patterns Patterns are recurring events Patterns are recurring events

Where do we observe patterns?Where do we observe patterns?

Natural SciencesNatural SciencesHuman SciencesHuman Sciences

Theories to be considered in this Theories to be considered in this presentation presentation

Plate Tectonics Plate Tectonics Evolution by Natural Selection Evolution by Natural Selection Valance shell Electron Pair Repulsion Valance shell Electron Pair Repulsion

Theory Theory Phillips CurvePhillips Curve

NATURAL SCIENCES NATURAL SCIENCES

Theory of plate tectonicsTheory of plate tectonics

Plate Tectonic Theory Plate Tectonic Theory

PatternPatternPrediction from pattern Prediction from pattern

Strength of the theoryStrength of the theory

Normally able to predict places where the Normally able to predict places where the giant earthquakes and volcanic eruptions giant earthquakes and volcanic eruptions likely to happen. likely to happen.

Able to predict the magnitude of Able to predict the magnitude of earthquake, volcano or tsunami. earthquake, volcano or tsunami.

Provides a mechanism to explain Provides a mechanism to explain continental drift theorycontinental drift theory

Possible areas of weakness of Possible areas of weakness of theories in general theories in general

Sometimes Impossible to experiment Sometimes Impossible to experiment Danger overgeneralization (problem of Danger overgeneralization (problem of

induction)induction)Obtaining precise prior knowledge Obtaining precise prior knowledge

(measurement difficulties)(measurement difficulties) Influence observer effect (uncertainty Influence observer effect (uncertainty

principle)principle)Complexity and interacting variable Complexity and interacting variable

Implication of the event on the Implication of the event on the theorytheory

Scientists are rethinking their theory, Scientists are rethinking their theory, based on data collected after the based on data collected after the earthquakeearthquake

Re-examining some of the pre-December Re-examining some of the pre-December 2004 assumptions scientists made about 2004 assumptions scientists made about such rare events. such rare events.

Some of this assumptions were, giant Some of this assumptions were, giant earth quakes occur only in fast, young earth quakes occur only in fast, young subduction zones subduction zones

EVOLUTION EVOLUTION

Evolution Evolution The future course of evolution The future course of evolution

Can the theory of evolution make Can the theory of evolution make predictions?predictions?

It has explanatory power It has explanatory power

Use of evidence for example fossil records, Use of evidence for example fossil records, homologous anatomical structures and homologous anatomical structures and artificial selection artificial selection

Strength of the theory Strength of the theory

Evolution is more sensitive to initial Evolution is more sensitive to initial conditions, so specific predictions about conditions, so specific predictions about what mutations will occur and what traits what mutations will occur and what traits will survive are impractical. (Abel,145) will survive are impractical. (Abel,145)

Initial Conditions Initial Conditions

Initial condition

Gene Mutation

Environmental EffectFood availability Predator effectWeather condition

Gene combinations

But not all scientific theories are able to make But not all scientific theories are able to make testable predictions? testable predictions?

No scientific theory can ever be used to make No scientific theory can ever be used to make predictions unless the initial conditions are predictions unless the initial conditions are specified: and all theories require elimination of specified: and all theories require elimination of irrelevant factor” irrelevant factor”

( Reuben Abel)( Reuben Abel)

This is a difficulty for both the human scientists and This is a difficulty for both the human scientists and Evolutionary Biologists.Evolutionary Biologists.

Periodicity Periodicity

Patterns in chemistry Patterns in chemistry

Periodicity - refers to the repeating pattern Periodicity - refers to the repeating pattern of physical and chemical properties that is of physical and chemical properties that is seen at regular interval in the periodic seen at regular interval in the periodic table.table.

Mendeleev Periodic TableMendeleev Periodic Table

Valance Shell Electron Pair Valance Shell Electron Pair Repulsion Theory (VSEPR) Repulsion Theory (VSEPR)

Valance shell electron pair Valance shell electron pair repulsion theory (VSEPR)repulsion theory (VSEPR)

mainly involves predicting the layout of electron mainly involves predicting the layout of electron pairs surrounding one or more central atoms in a pairs surrounding one or more central atoms in a molecule, which are bonded to two or more molecule, which are bonded to two or more other atoms. The geometry of these central other atoms. The geometry of these central atoms in turn determines the geometry of the atoms in turn determines the geometry of the larger whole. It is also a model in chemistry used larger whole. It is also a model in chemistry used to predict the shape of individual molecules to predict the shape of individual molecules based upon the extent of electron-pair based upon the extent of electron-pair electrostatic repulsion electrostatic repulsion

Strength of the theory Strength of the theory

It plays a great role in predicting the It plays a great role in predicting the structure of a compound by looking at the structure of a compound by looking at the geometrical structure of the central atom geometrical structure of the central atom and using the valance shell electrons.and using the valance shell electrons.

To determine the melting and the boiling of To determine the melting and the boiling of a compound. a compound.

For Example HFor Example H22O is V-shaped moleculeO is V-shaped molecule

Weakness of the theoryWeakness of the theory

It is Qualitative and hence, we can not talk It is Qualitative and hence, we can not talk about the quantitative properties of the about the quantitative properties of the compounds for instance we can not compounds for instance we can not determine the exact degree of repulsion determine the exact degree of repulsion between each bonds.between each bonds.

This theory can not apply to all This theory can not apply to all compounds for instance Benzene is compounds for instance Benzene is exceptional to the rule exceptional to the rule (Overgeneralization)(Overgeneralization)

Scientific methodScientific method

Hypothesis Hypothesis Experimentation Experimentation ObservationObservationData collectionData collectionConclusion Conclusion

Uncertainty principle: HeisenbergUncertainty principle: Heisenberg

This principle states that it is impossible to know This principle states that it is impossible to know the exact position and momentum of an electron. the exact position and momentum of an electron. As momentum is related to time, what this As momentum is related to time, what this implies is that it is impossible to know the exact implies is that it is impossible to know the exact location of an electron at an exact momentum in location of an electron at an exact momentum in time. The more precisely the location is known, time. The more precisely the location is known, the less precisely the time known and vice the less precisely the time known and vice versa. Heisenberg’s principle applies to any versa. Heisenberg’s principle applies to any particle with mass, but the more massive the particle with mass, but the more massive the less the uncertainty of the particle. (Neuss,35)less the uncertainty of the particle. (Neuss,35)

Uncertainty principle: Heisenberg Uncertainty principle: Heisenberg

Scientists are using as base where there Scientists are using as base where there is a high probability that electrons are is a high probability that electrons are located in order to make predictionlocated in order to make prediction

This applies to the whole of the physical This applies to the whole of the physical universe for example in describing the universe for example in describing the three dimensional shapes of atomic orbital three dimensional shapes of atomic orbital where there is a high probability that where there is a high probability that electrons are located electrons are located

Why can’t we measure Why can’t we measure

The problem of observer effect – The The problem of observer effect – The physicist measuring devices interact with physicist measuring devices interact with what he is measuring on subatomic level.what he is measuring on subatomic level.

Prediction in Human Prediction in Human sciences sciences

The law of large numbers The law of large numbers ReasoningReasoning enables us to establish a relationship enables us to establish a relationship

between particular experience and more broadly between particular experience and more broadly general ones with in the world we perceive.general ones with in the world we perceive.

Once we have explained the last event Once we have explained the last event satisfactorily we can predict the up coming satisfactorily we can predict the up coming

Through evidence, we can associate cause and Through evidence, we can associate cause and effect, make correlations and predict. effect, make correlations and predict.

Understanding of pattern allows us to predict.Understanding of pattern allows us to predict.

What enables Human Scientists to What enables Human Scientists to predict?predict?

Why Human scientists find it Why Human scientists find it difficult to Predictdifficult to Predict

Problems of applying the scientific method in Problems of applying the scientific method in the Human sciencesthe Human sciences

Impossible to carry out controlled experiment Impossible to carry out controlled experiment Too many variables Too many variables Some observation biased Some observation biased Individual behavior is unpredictable Individual behavior is unpredictable The weakness of baseline assumptions limit the The weakness of baseline assumptions limit the

predictive ability of human sciences predictive ability of human sciences ““It doesn’t matter if the assumptions are wrong as long It doesn’t matter if the assumptions are wrong as long

as one can extract general rules from which one can as one can extract general rules from which one can make predictions” (make predictions” (perbylund.com/.../why-economists-predictions-are-perbylund.com/.../why-economists-predictions-are-

always-wrong/always-wrong/ ) ) Sometimes the predictions are based on extrapolating Sometimes the predictions are based on extrapolating

well beyond what is reasonablewell beyond what is reasonable. .

The Phillips curve theory?The Phillips curve theory?

Example Example The Phillips curve The Phillips curve

The butterfly EffectThe butterfly Effect

The prediction of the behavior of any large The prediction of the behavior of any large system is virtually impossible unless one system is virtually impossible unless one could account for all tiny factors could account for all tiny factors

A small change in some tiny variable may A small change in some tiny variable may cause larger variation in a dynamic system cause larger variation in a dynamic system

The Cassandra paradoxThe Cassandra paradox Example of interaction between a social Example of interaction between a social

investigator and what is been investigated investigator and what is been investigated Unlike in natural science there is unavoidable Unlike in natural science there is unavoidable

interaction between the predictor and the people interaction between the predictor and the people for whom the prediction is made for whom the prediction is made

Human tend to try to falsify the predictions made Human tend to try to falsify the predictions made about them about them

““A prediction to you about you may motivate you A prediction to you about you may motivate you to defy the prediction” (Abel,116)to defy the prediction” (Abel,116)

What about our measurements from What about our measurements from thermometer?thermometer?

Implication on theory of plate Implication on theory of plate tectonicstectonics

There are things scientists can’t really There are things scientists can’t really measure but this variable may cause measure but this variable may cause unpredicted effects. For instance exact unpredicted effects. For instance exact measurement of the speed and age of measurement of the speed and age of plate is difficult.plate is difficult.

In our presentation we have talked about the In our presentation we have talked about the role of prediction in validating a scientific theory. role of prediction in validating a scientific theory. As we have seen from the 2004 tsunami incident As we have seen from the 2004 tsunami incident our theories fail sometimes to predict.our theories fail sometimes to predict.

Mismatch between theory of plate tectonics and Mismatch between theory of plate tectonics and 2004 tsunami 2004 tsunami

Uncertainty principle and observer effect Uncertainty principle and observer effect Historical approach versus experimental Historical approach versus experimental

approach approach But there are other qualities to validate scientific But there are other qualities to validate scientific

theory such as explanatory powers. theory such as explanatory powers.

Conclusion Conclusion

Bibliography Bibliography ““Sumatra Earthquake: New Data Overturn Common View That Great Sumatra Earthquake: New Data Overturn Common View That Great

Earthquakes Only Occur In Fast, Young Subduction Zones”. Earthquakes Only Occur In Fast, Young Subduction Zones”.

sciencedialy. Jan. 10, 2007sciencedialy. Jan. 10, 2007..Oct. 1, 2009. <Oct. 1, 2009. <http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/01/070109142217.htm>>

• “ “Scientific Theory". Wikipedia- Scientific Theory". Wikipedia- the Free Encyclopediathe Free Encyclopedia. 2009.Nov. 3, 2009. . 2009.Nov. 3, 2009. <<en.wikipedia.org/wiki/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ScientificScientific__theorytheory > >

• Bylund, Per. “Bylund, Per. “Why Economists’ Predictions are Always Wrong”.2009. Why Economists’ Predictions are Always Wrong”.2009. Nov. 3, 2009 . Nov. 3, 2009 .

http://perbylund.com/blog/2009/05/why-economists-predictions-are- always-wrong/

• Neuss, Geoffrey. Chemistry course companion. Oxford, USA: Oxford Neuss, Geoffrey. Chemistry course companion. Oxford, USA: Oxford university press 2007. university press 2007. Nov. 3, 2009. Nov. 3, 2009.

• Abel, Reuben. Man Is The Measure. New York: THE FREE PRESS 1976. 1 Abel, Reuben. Man Is The Measure. New York: THE FREE PRESS 1976. 1

Oct 2009Oct 2009

theory of plate tectonics an explanation of science and prediction

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