third-generation cellular: technical and economic challenges
DESCRIPTION
Third-generation Cellular: Technical and Economic Challenges. Dr. Ray W. Nettleton Telecommunications Consultant Denver, CO [email protected]. Agenda. Third Generation Cellular Technical Challenges: Range, Coverage, Capacity, & Spectrum - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Third-generation Cellular: Technical and Economic Challenges
Dr. Ray W. Nettleton
Telecommunications Consultant
Denver, CO
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 2
AgendaThird Generation Cellular
Technical Challenges: Range, Coverage, Capacity, & Spectrum
Economic Challenges: Market Share & 3G Spectrum Auctions
A Modest Proposal
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 3
3G in the “Big Picture”
ETSI has created a hierarchy of personal communications modalities that provide the maximum data rate possible given where the customer
is at a given time. In the US this is complemented by CDMA2000.
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000Data rate kbit/s
Regional/Continental
Macrocell/Microcell
Macro/Micro/Picocell
Microcell/Picocell
Picocell/Indoor
Personal AreaIEEE802.11 /
Satellite
W-CDMA/FDD
CDMA2000
W-CDMA/TDD
Bluetooth
Hiperlan
Source: ETSI & ANSI Standards
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 4
IMTS – 2000: 5 Standards
UTRAN (W-CDMA, UMTS)
These are the terrestrial standards only. There will be satellite standards also.The GSM “camp” sponsors UTRAN; the CDMA camp sponsors IMT-MC (CDMA2000).The US TDMA camp sponsors EDGE (IMT-SC) and will migrate to W-CDMA.
EDGE
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 5
What’s Special About 3G?
It’s not just phones. It’s PDAs, videophones, Internet browsing, location-based services, interactive games, and a whole lot more.
Motorola
Nokia
Siemens
Ericsson Panasonic
Compaq
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 6
Evolution of 3G Systems
Eventual Target: One 4G Stanndard
20012001 20022002 20032003
Source: ITU
Phase-in periods only are shown. Each technology will continue in parallel with the
others for a time.
??
GPRS 114kbit/s
EDGE 384kbit/s
W-CDMA (UMTS) 2Mbit/s
200kHz
5MHz
GAITDual Standard GSM/TDMA
Phones
“Pre-Edge”2.5G
GSM
TDMA (IS136)
CDMA1XEV-DO 2Mbit/s
IS 95B 64kbit/s 64kbit/s
1XRTT 144kbit/s
1XRTT 384kbit/s 1XEV-DV 4Mbit/s1.25MHz
CDMA-2000
3X??
Timeline may be delayed due to economic technical and standards issues
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 7
3G StatusCDMA2000 is operating in Korea with about a million customers. World availability expected mid – late 2002.
W-CDMA is operating in Tokyo using Ericsson equipment. World availability expected late 2002 – first half 2003
Cingular is rolling out GPRS (precursor to EDGE) nationwide in the US – a $3B exercise
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 8
Range / Coverage
Standard Area
1XEV-DO 127.56 140.40 142.83 81% 65%
1xRTT 127.76 n/a 142.32 77% 59%
Base Case: IS-95 130.81 n/a 146.31
W-CDMA 129.06 150.36 146.02 99% 98%
EDGE-2 (384kbit/s) 124.80 148.50 n/a 75% 56%
EDGE-1 (144kbit/s) n/a n/a 143.30 87% 76%
Base Case: GSM 129.20 n/a 145.40
Coverage Cell Size Reduction from Base
Radius
Max free space path loss dB
In-Building
In-Vehicle
Outdoor low mob
CD
MA
on
e-
CD
MA
2000
GS
M-
W-C
DM
A
Base case
Base case
GSM operators are expected to build more base stations for EDGE – that they won’t need for W-CDMA!
CDMA2000 operators will need to build more, smaller coverage cells to make this work
Source: JMS WorldwideReproduced by permission
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 9
Capacity
1
10
100
1000
10 100 1000 10000
Average data rate per user kbit/s
Nu
mb
er o
f si
mu
ltan
eou
s u
sers
Roughly 10:1 advantage to WCDMA(bandwidth ratio is 4:1)
Interference averaging breaks down when the number of users is small
W-CDMA achieves its high data rates with
QPSK – 2Mbit/s is not a stretch for a 5MHz signal
CDMA2000 achieves its high data rates by going to 16-QAM, losing link budget and capacity along the way
W-CDMA has 2.5 times the capacity of CDMA2000
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 10
CDMAone and half of PDC transition to CDMA2000
Market Share
W-CDMA 90%
CDMA2000 10%
GSM 76%
PDC10%
CDMA5%
TDMA9%
GSM, TDMA and half of PDC transition to W-CDMA
Source: www.cellular.co.za
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 11
Spectrum Confusion
US MDS
FCC: “Both!”
Once again the US is isolated by the FCC’s prior actions
Sources: ITU, ERO, FCC
US PCS/UL
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 12
Spectrum Auctions WorldwideHundreds of spectrum auctions have already been run. The proceeds so far - $182B - are shown as “current”. The “projected” numbers are based on demographics and announcements of future auctions.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Au
ctio
n p
roce
eds
US
$B
illio
n
Pacific Rim(Asia /
Oceania)
Europe LatinAmerica
US &Canada
Totals
Current Projected
$330B$330B
$182B$182B
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 13
The Big SpendersAuction
Proceeds $BProceeds per pop $
UK 38.50$ 594.20$
Germany 50.80$ 566.90$
Italy 10.18$ 174.20$
S. Korea 3.30$ 60.80$
Holland 2.68$ 158.90$
These “Top Five” 3G auctions, held in the last 18 months, account for more than 58% of the total $182B proceeds collected from auctions worldwide over the past 15 years.
Altogether 3G auctions alone have accounted for $142B of the total, or 78%
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 14
How Much is $330B?
It is the Gross Domestic Product of Switzerland.
It is the combined annual revenue of Exxon-Mobil and General Electric
It is $1,172 for every man, woman and child living in the United States
“If you can count your money, you don’t have a billion dollars”
… J Paul Getty
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 15
Air vs. Hardware
$330
B t
o th
e sa
me
scal
e
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 16
Air vs. Revenues
$330B46%
22%
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 17
Air vs. Cellular 10In
clu
din
g p
roje
cti
on
s
Cu
rre
nt
pro
ce
ed
s
The Auctions are already level with the top 10 cellcos combined. If the projections are correct, it would be much larger than the top 20!
Source: ITU
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Auc
tions
tota
lA
uctio
ns n
owN
TT D
oCoM
o
Spr
int P
CS
Vod
afon
e (U
K)
Chi
na T
elec
om
AT&
T
TIM
DD
I (Ja
pan)
Om
nite
l (Ita
ly)
Man
nesm
ann
BT
Cel
lnet
(UK
)
$B
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 18
Mark Anderson’s “Modest Proposal”
The debt burden of 3G operators is as oppressive as that of some third world countries
The wireless industry cannot recover this outlay, which was due to “extortion bidding”
Governments should return the 3G money as an interest-free loan
The EU has started hearings on the question
The FCC has been forced to give up part of its anticipated revenue (NextWave case)
Source: http://www.tapsns.com/newsitem.shtml?7-25-2001
ISART Boulder CO March 2002 19
Conclusions
3G is late but provides a rich array of services that will likely stimulate the marketCDMA2000 will have the toughest time – small market share, licensees often not receiving new spectrumW-CDMA won’t be easy either – huge spectrum auction costs, later entry than CDMA2000
Thank You!