Three Trade Association

Small Business Data Bases

William J. Dennis, Jr.

Senior Research Fellow

NFIB Research Foundation

Academy of Management

Chicago, IL

August, 2009

Three Data Bases

• Small Business Economic Trends

– www.nfib.com/research

• National Small Business Poll

– 411smallbusinessfacts.com

• New Business in America: The Firms and

Their Owners

– Not on the Web

Small Business Economic Trends

• Topic – current and forecast economic data,

e.g., selling prices, employment, credit

conditions, inventories. 37 questions

• Data Collection – member survey. Mail.

Quarterly between Oct., 1973 and Jan.,

1986; monthly since. Currently, about

12,000 observations a year

• Data availability – both micro and aggregate

series

SBET Strengths

• Longevity – 37 years (time series)

• Consistent – most questions unchanged over time

• Frequent – monthly

• Reliable – questions patterned after Un. of Mich.’s Survey of Consumer Sentiment

• Performance – demonstrated subsequently

• Unique – nothing like it in the world

• No cost to user

SBET Weaknesses

• Sample from trade association membership,

respondents disproportionately large,

rural, manufacturers

• Response rate – between 33 percent and 17

percent

• Trends are trustworthy; levels are not

• Some questions do not date to 1973.

Tweaks made in 1982 and 1986

• Micro-responses cannot be linked over time

Currency

• Released the second

Tuesday of each month

• E-mail press release

with summary results

• Anyone can be on the

mailing list (now

consists principally of

media, investment

firms, and government

officials

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Net P

erc

ent

YEAR

EARNINGSActual Last Three Months

January Quarter 1974 to April Quarter 2009

(Seasonally Adjusted)

NFIB Research Foundation

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Actual

Planned

Net P

erc

ent

YEAR

PRICESActual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months

January Quarter 1974 to April Quarter 2009

(Seasonally Adjusted)

NFIB Research Foundation

THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 '00

'03

'06

'09

Perc

en

t o

f F

irm

s

PREDICTED ACTUAL

Q3 BASED ON JUNE DATA 8.8%

Wall Street is a Major User

Wall Street Analysis

More Wall Street Analysis

National Small Business Poll

• Topic – various, each Poll is a different topic, e. g., Families in Business, IT Issues, Payroll, Innovation

• Data Collection – stratified random sample of small employers (<250 empl.) from D&B files. N ≈ 750 per Poll. Telephone. Conducted by The Gallup Organization.

• Data Availability – micro data with NAICs, employees, or zip consolidated

NSBP Strengths

• Sampling and survey conduct

• Stratification includes 200 cases of 20+ employee firms in each survey

• 63 separate polls (variety)

• Isolated facts (unusual questions); research ideas

• Preview survey questions, response, and Ns on-line

• No cost to user

NSBP Weaknesses

• Lacks depth, detail

• Questions gather general information, facts,

evaluations; not hypothesis driven

• Samples always of general population,

meaning problems, issues of subsets

not (infrequently) addressed

• Profitability (finance), growth measures poor

Sample Topics in the Series

• Workplace Safety

• Reinvesting in the Business

• Contributions to Community

• Business Structure

• Training Employees

• Energy Consumption

• IT Issues

• Credit Cards

411 Home Page

411 Data Page

New Business in America

• Antecedent to the PSED

• 3 year longitudinal survey – 1985 - 1987

• Businesses <18 months old

– Yr 1 – 2994 cases

– Yr 2 – 1190 cases

– Yr 3 – 877 cases

– Could not identify final status of only 1 case

• Sampling frame – NFIB membership file

Sample Topics Addressed

• Strategy – same questions all three years

• Major changes

• Sales problems

• Time allocation

• Capital sources and additions

• Franchised sales

• Expected success

• Reasons for entry

• Personal satisfaction

• Changes in ownership structure

• Information sources

• Preparation, including prior business experience

Why Consider Using the Set?

• PSED more comprehensive, more recent, reaches people earlier in the process, and is methodologically superior

• Why use the New Business in America set?

– Easier to use; less intimidating

– Some differences and emphases

– Annual intervals

– Know the three year survival status of everyone; increases number of cases to work with

Publications from New Bus. In Am.

• Do Entrepreneurial Goals Matter? Resource Allocation in New Owner-Managed Firms. Dunkelberg, Moore, Scott, Stull, under review, 2009

• Survival of the fittest? Entry human capital and the persistence of underperforming firms. Gimeno, Folta, Cooper, ASQ, Dec. 1997

• Determinants of satisfaction for entre-preneurs. Cooper, Artz, JBV, 1995

More Publications

• Reinvestment decisions by entrepreneurs: Rational decision-making or escalation of commitment? McCarthy, Schoorman, Cooper, JBV, Jan 1993

• Entrepreneurship and the initial size of firms. Cooper, Woo, Dunkelberg, JBV, September, 1989

• Entrepreneurs perceived chances for success. Cooper, Woo, Dunkelberg, JBV, Spring 1988