Obsolescence Management | Integrated Logistic Support | Training

Through Life Obsolescence Cost Modelling T45 Destroyer

David Williams

Director Through Life Support Ltd

Obsolescence Management | Integrated Logistic Support | Training

Through Life Support Ltd

• Founded in 2011 by: – David Williams – Stuart Kelly

• Capability – All Aspects of Through Life Capability Management – Specialising

• Obsolescence Management

• Customer Base – Aerospace and Defence, Energy, Transportation – International customer base For more go to: www.throughlifesupport.com

Obsolescence Management | Integrated Logistic Support | Training

Through Life Obsolescence Management for the T45 Destroyer

• Background – Phase 1 2013

• 11 major systems, an assessment of Obsolescence and costs for a 10 year span

– Phase 2 2015 • BAE Systems engage TLS to review the 2013 assessment and re-valuate

– TLS provided a significant reduction in 2013 cost predictions

• TLS were also tasked to analyse the planned spares procurement parts (c5,000 items) with AVCOM and then cost model the obsolescence using the TLS TOCET cost modelling Tool

– Phase 3 2016 • BAE Systems engage TLS to extend the 2015 list with a further 21 systems with analysis based

on: – Supplier Assessments – Equipment Parts lists analysed with AVCOM and cost modelled with TOCET

• Report issued November 2015

Obsolescence Management | Integrated Logistic Support | Training

Scope of this Paper

• Phase 4 Requirements 2017

• BAE Systems End Customer Requirements

• Approach Taken by TLS to meet requirements

• Risk Management for Prioritisation

• Sources of Information to meet the requirements

• Results and Analysis

• Reporting Dashboard(BAE Systems Development)

• Summary

Obsolescence Management | Integrated Logistic Support | Training

Phase 4 Requirements 2017 • The Issue

– Previous phases whilst they met the requirements and provided a summary of the predicted/forecast costs of obsolescence over the agreed period would benefit from a further task with greater granularity:

– Expanding on • Limited Phasing throughout the period

• Some resolutions identified and reported

• Limited tracking of actions and agreed resolutions

– Extending to cover • Prioritising of the obsolescence issues

• Alignment to maintenance schedules

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BAE Systems End Customer Requirements

• BAE Systems – MOD Quarterly Review February 2017

– MOD Requested that the previously (2016 and 2015) information be extended to meet the following requirements

• Risk and Vulnerability assessment to place the predicted / forecast costs and any identified resolutions under the classification of Fight, Move, Float and Safety(FMFS)

• Prioritise in line with Op-defect (1 to 3 –with 1 being high)

• Schedule Predicted/forecast costs over the period 2018 to 2028

• Plan Obsolescence resolutions(mitigations) in line with the maintenance schedule identified in LTOS

Obsolescence Management | Integrated Logistic Support | Training

TLS Approach to meeting the Requirements

• Developed an Excel workbook to manage and capture key data – FAC (Fleet Area Code) Dependency Matrix

– FAC Risk level FMFS • Used the T45 Digest data to define impacts

• Supplier Risk notifications

– TLS 12 level Risk Model

– Risk Calculator

– Progress and status tracking

– Systems that are to be modelled for cost and phasing

Obsolescence Management | Integrated Logistic Support | Training

Risk Management for Prioritisation

Requirements to meet FMFS

• TLS 12 level Risk Model – Redundancy

– Combat Critical

– Mission Critical

– Operation Critical

– Platform Safety Critical

– Health and Safety

– Has Commercial Operating System

– Supplier Business Continuity

– Supply Chain Risk

– Obsolescence Risk

– Implementation Difficulty

Obsolescence Management | Integrated Logistic Support | Training

Risk Aspect Weighting

• To provide a Risk Priority each of the 12 Risk assessed areas were given a weighting – Weightings were different dependent on the aspect

– Some weighting were 0 or 1 if the answer was yes/ no

– Weightings table applied to each aspect

– Weightings were totalled to provide an overall score • Lower number the higher the priority

• Risk Model presented and submitted to both BAE Systems and the MOD OM lead and fully adopted

Obsolescence Management | Integrated Logistic Support | Training

Information Sources

• Supplier Assessments – Key system suppliers meetings and discussions – Recording and agreeing OM actions and costs

• Parts list for modelling from the Parent Child Relationship

– AVCOM OM Status analysis – TLS TOCET Modelling

• Electronic • Non-electronic

• Multiple other documents/data sources such as lower level parts suppliers

Obsolescence Management | Integrated Logistic Support | Training

Results and Analysis Recording Data

TLS Risk levels

Redundancy

Combat critical

Mission Critical

Operational Critical

Propulsion Critical

Platform Safety Critical

Health and safety

Contains commercial operating software

Supplier Business Continuity

Supply Chain risk

Obsolescence Risk

Implementation

Based on Digest or Supplier Yes or No

Based on qualification from appropriate source

Based on Digest or Supplier

Based on Digest and RR/GE

Based on Digest or supplier/customer/BAES

Based on assessment

From Assessments yes/no

From Assessments

From assessments

Assessment and AVCOM reports

From suppliers

FAC Descripti

on Supplier

Comments

Lead time

Risk Number

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Supplier System Review Reports

• Reviews undertaken in TLS’s proven Format identifying

– Obsolescence Risk

– Cost of Risk Mitigation

– Timeline

– Design Refresh/Technology upgrade

– Agreement with supplier on reported results

– Data entered in the Risk Calculation worksheet

– Data used to populate the OM Dash Board

Obsolescence Management | Integrated Logistic Support | Training

TOCET Modelled Systems

• For those system that were modelled then the process used was:

Load Parts in AVCOM

Part Type identified

(18) TOCET Costs

Data Modelled

Part Type Life Cycle

Part Type Count

Phased Costs

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Cost Curve Model

FAC Code DescriptionParts quantityPart Type

Life Cycle

Factor Qty Part Type

Weightin

gs

Frequenc

y

Weightin

g Factor

in

managed

period

Factor

Total

Number

to use

per cost %

FAC Total

Cost

Percenta

ge Costs

Life Cycle

Factor

Cost in

years

K

BHC Transmission 125,000

163 System 0.0 0.0

Box 0.0 0.0

Board 0.0 0.0

Assembly 5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Chemical 5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Electrical 13 0.0 0.0 0.0

Electronic 4 0.0 0.0 0.0

Explosives 0.0 0.0

Hardware 62 0.0 0.0 0.0

Mechanical 13 0.0 0.0 0.0

MISC 0.0 0.0 0.0

Non

Electric 17 0.0 0.0 0.0

Optical 0.0 0.0 0.0

Organic 0.0 0.0 0.0

Software 0.0 0.0 0.0

Structual 39 0.0 0.0 0.0

Undertimed 4 0.0 0.0 0.0

COTS 1 0.0 0.0 0.0

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Reporting Dashboard

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Summary

• Both BAE Systems and TLS had recognised in December 2016 – The requirement to phase the costs over the reported period – The need to add risk and priority to the analysis

• Each Phase has added granularity and accuracy to the predicted costs – Costs are now refined and each phase has shown a reduction

• A significant level of equipment and systems design are now in the region of 20 years old and the tasks have enabled the raising of the options to maintain Through Life Capability

• Contracting effectively is still an issue

Obsolescence Management | Integrated Logistic Support | Training

Questions