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Page 1: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Thursday 5 March 202008:00 EST | 14:00 CET | 21:00 CST

Page 2: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

AGENDA

Presentation

• Yi-Ming WeiProfessor, Lab Director, and Vice PresidentBeijing Institute of Technology

• Lan-Cui LiuProfessorBeijing Normal University & Beijing Institute of Technology

• Jia-Ning KangResearcherBeijing Institute of Technology

Question and Answer Session

Welcome & Introductory Remarks

• Juho LipponenCo-ordinatorCEM CCUS Initiative

• Xian ZhangDirectorThe Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21

1 2 3

Page 3: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

SPEAKERS

Webinar recordings provided on

YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/user/cleanenergypolicy

Yi-Ming Wei

Professor, Lab Director, and Vice

President

Beijing Institute of Technology

Xian Zhang

Director

The Administrative Center for China’s

Agenda 21

Lan-Cui Liu

Professor

Beijing Normal University & Beijing

Institute of Technology

Jia-Ning Kang

Researcher

Beijing Institute of Technology

Page 4: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies
Page 5: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

75%Global CO2

emissions

90%Clean energy

investments

26 CEM

Members

Clean Energy Ministerial: global process to accelerate clean energy

www.cleanenergyministerial.org

Page 6: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

CEM CCUS Initiative Member Governments

Observer:

Page 7: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Accelerating CCUS Together by:

1. Actively including CCUS within global clean energy agenda

2. Bringing together the private sector, governments and the investment community

3. Facilitating identification of both near and longer-term investment opportunities

4. Disseminating best practice in CCUS policy, regulation and investment

Page 8: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Xian ZhangDirectorThe Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21

Prof. Xian Zhang currently serves as Deputy Director in the Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21, Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Assistant Director General of Technology Transfer South-South Cooperation Center. He is also a Chinese government representative of the United Nations Climate Change Negotiations, the Deputy Secretary General of National Committee of CCUS of China, the focal point of international multilateral mechanisms on CCUS (e.g. Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum; Mission Innovation; Clean Energy Ministerial), the alternate country representative of international organizations (e.g. Asia-Pacific Global Change Research Network, APN) and the Deputy Director General of Climate Change Working Committee, Chinese Society for Sustainable Development.

Prof. Zhang also acts as the editorial board member and the anonymous reviewer for several core journals in the fields of energy, environment, and climate change (e.g. Applied Energy, Journal of Cleaner Production, Energy Policy, etc.).

Panelist

Page 9: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Yi-Ming WeiProfessor, Lab Director, and Vice PresidentBeijing Institute of Technology

Panelist

Dr. Yi-Ming Wei is a Distinguished University Professor and Vice President of Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT). He is the Founding Director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research at BIT. Prior to working at the BIT, Dr. Wei was a Professor and the Deputy Director-General of the CAS Institute of Policy and Management from October 2000 to December 2008. He was the founding director of IPM-CAS and RIET-CNPC Joint Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.

Prof. Yi-Ming Wei has more than 25 years of experience in Climate Change Economics and Policy, including academia, research, and consulting. He has made remarkable achievements in integrating climate economic theory and policy practice by improving the integrated assessment methods, building the China’s Climate Change Integrated Assessment Model (C3IAM), developing new emission accounting methods, establishing a low-carbon development assessment system, researching systematically on the global climate change policy, and promoting climate change economics development in China.

Page 10: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Roadmap for Carbon Capture,

Utilization and Storage

Technology in China (2019)

CEM CCUS webinar: CCUS in China

Prof. Yi-Ming Wei, Prof. Xian Zhang

5 March, 2020

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,

Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT)

Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management

School of Management and Economics, BIT

E-mail: [email protected] http://ceep.bit.edu.cn/

Page 11: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Related work on CCUS:layout optimization, technology assessment,

investment analysis, life cycle assessment, water security, energy penalty.

Page 2 of 28

Zhang, X., Fan, J.-L., Wei, Y.-M. 2013. Technology roadmap study on carbon capture, utilization and storage in China. Energy Policy

59, 536-550.

Zhang, X., Wang, X., Chen, J., et al. 2014. A novel modeling based real option approach for CCS investment evaluation under multiple

uncertainties. Applied Energy 113, 1059-1067.

Li, J., Hou, Y., Wang, P., et al. 2018. A Review of Carbon Capture and Storage Project Investment and Operational Decision-Making

Based on Bibliometrics. Energies 12, 23.

Li, J., Mi, Z., Wei, Y.-M., et al. 2019. Flexible options to provide energy for capturing carbon dioxide in coal-fired power plants under

the Clean Development Mechanism. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 24, 1483-1505.

Li, H., Jiang, H., Yang, B., et al. 2019. An analysis of research hotspots and modeling techniques on carbon capture and storage. Science

of The Total Environment 687, 687-701.

Li, J., Yu, B., Tang, B., et al. 2020. Investment in carbon dioxide capture and storage combined with enhanced water recovery.

International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 94, 102848.

Yang B, Wei Y.-M., Hou Y, et al. 2019. Life cycle environmental impact assessment of fuel mix-based biomass co-firing plants with

CO2 capture and storage. Applied Energy 252, 113483.

Wang, P.-T., Wei, Y-M, Yang, B, et al. 2020. Carbon capture and storage in China’s power sector Optimal planning under the 2℃

constraint. Applied Energy 263, 114694.

Wang, P.-T., Wei, Y.-M.. 2020. Impact of large coal-fired power plants with CCS implement on urban water use in China under 2℃-

constraint scenarios. CEEP-BIT Working Paper.

Yang, B., Wei, Y.-M., Liu, L.-C., et al. 2020. Life cycle cost assessment of biomass co-firing plants with CO2 capture and storage:An

Empirical Analysis from China. CEEP-BIT Working Paper.

Zhou, H.L., Silveira, S., Tang, B.J.. 2020. Optimal timing for carbon capture retrofitting in biomass-coal combined heat and power

plants in China. CEEP-BIT Working Paper. …

Insights from CEEP-BIT

Page 12: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Contents

Current technological progress and challenges

Vision and goals

Priority actions and early opportunities

Policy recommendations

Page 3 of 28

Page 13: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Contents

Current technological progress and challenges

Vision and goals

Priority actions and early opportunities

Policy recommendations

Page 4 of 28

Page 14: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

CCUS technical process and classification

Page 5 of 28

In recent years, a few new types of technology have continued to emerge and diversify

Different technical aspects of CCUS technology have experienced great progress in China

Emission

sourcesCapture

High-

concentration

emission sources

e.g., coal

chemical

industry.

hydrogen

production.

biomass

e.g., IGCC.

coal-fired and

gas-fired power

production.

steelmaking.

petrochemical.

petroleum

refining.

cemment

Low-

concentration

emission sources

Precombustion

capture

•Chemical

absorption

• Physical

absorption

• Physical

adsorption

•Membrane

separation

Postcombustion

capture

•Chemical

absorption

•Adsorption

method

•Membrane

separation

Oxyfuel

combustion

capture

•Ordinary

pressure

• Pressurization

•Chemical

looping

Transport

Transport

•Vehicles

•Onshore

pipelines

•Offshore

pipelines

•Offshore

ships

Utilization and storage

• Enhanced oil recovery

• Enhanced coalbed methane recovery

• Enhance natural gas recovery

• Enhance shale gas recovery

• Enhanced geothermal system

• In-situ leaching of uranium mine

• Enhanced deep saline aquifer system

Chemical utilization

• Syngas reforming

• Preparation of liquid fuel

• Synthesis of methanol

• Synthesis of organic carbonate

• Synthesis of degradable polymers

• Synthesis of polymer polyols

• Synthesis of isocyanate/polyurethane

• Steel slag mineralization

•Gypsum mineralization

• Low-grade minerals processing with

mineralization

Biological utilization

•Conversion to food and feed

•Conversion to biofertilizer

•Conversion to chemicals and biofuel

•Gas fertilizer utilization

Geological storage

•Onshore saline aquifer storage

• Seabed saline aquifer storage

•Depleted oilfield storage

•Depleted gas field storage

Geological utilization

Products

Oil

Gas

Water

Minerals

Geotherm

Materials

Fuel

Chemicals

Food

Feed

Fertilizers

Page 15: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

China possesses favorable basis for CCUS development

The long-standing of a fossil fuel-dominated energy

structure over time

Large-scale, concentrated emission sources suitable for

CO2 capture that are numerous, widely distributed, and

diverse

A large geological storage capacity, estimated to be on the

scale of trillions of tons CO2

A complete industrial chain that provides a variety of

options for the development of CO2 utilization technology

Many CO2 utilization options, with which the potential

benefits can facilitate the development of other technical

aspects of CCUS

Page 6 of 28

Page 16: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

The development of CCUS technology in China still faces a number of challenges

China, at the current stage, can hardly afford the

expensive investments, additional energy consumption and

high costs associated with CCUS

The “sources in the east, sinks in the west” misaligned

distribution pattern increases the difficulty of

demonstrating and promoting CCUS in an integrated

manner

Complex geological conditions and dense population

distributions result in higher technological requirements

for large-scale storage

Page 7 of 28

Page 17: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

The Chinese government has implemented a series of

measures to proactively develop CCUS technology

Clearly stating the R&D strategies and development directions of CCUS The “Roadmap 2011”

The “‘12th Five-Year’ national carbon capture, utilization and storage technology special

development plan”

The “‘13th Five-Year’ national science and technology innovation plan”

Enhancing the support for CCUS technology R&D and demonstrations National Basic Research Program (973 Program),

National High-Tech Research and Development Program (863 Program),

National Key Technology R&D Program

Listed as important components in the “13th Five-Year Plan” as national research and

development programme key projects

Listed in the major projects of the Sci-Tech Innovation 2030 Agenda

Emphasizing CCUS-related capacity building and international

cooperation and exchange China's CCUS Industrial Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance was established

China is also actively involved in the formulation of international standards for CCUS technology

Extensive CCUS cooperation with international organizations such as the IEA and CSLF has also

taken place

China has established multilevel bilateral/multilateral technological cooperation with the

European Union, the United States, Australia, Canada, Italy, and other countries and regions

Page 8 of 28

Page 18: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Assessment of technological progress

The development of key technologies among the CCUS full chain in

China between 2011 and 2018

Page 9 of 28

Precombustion capture-Chemical absorption

Precombustion capture-Physical absorption

Precombustion capture-Physical adsorption

Precombustion capture-Membrane separation

Postcombustion capture-Chemical absorption

Postcombustion capture-Adsorption method

Postcombustion capture-Membrane separation

Oxyfuel combustion capture-Ordinarypressure

Oxyfuel combustion capture-Pressurization

Oxyfuel combustion capture-Chemical looping

Vehicles

Onshore pipelines

Offshore pipelines

Offshore ships

Enhanced oil recovery

Enhanced coalbed methane recovery

Enhance natural gas recovery

Enhance shale gas recovery

Enhanced geothermal system

In-situ leaching of uranium mine

Enhanced deep saline aquifer system

Syngas reforming

Preparation of liquid fuel

Synthesis of methanol

Synthesis of organic carbonate

Synthesis of degradable polymers

Synthesis of polymer polyols

Synthesis of isocyanate/polyurethane

Steel slag mineralization

Gypsum mineralization

Low-grade minerals processing with mineralization

Conversion to food and feed

Conversion to biofertilizer

Conversion to chemicals and biofuel

Gas fertilizer utilization

Onshore saline aquifer storage

Seabed saline aquifer storage

Depleted oilfield storage

Depleted gas field storage

Conceptual Basic Pilot Industry Commercial

phase research test demonstration application

Conceptual Basic Pilot Industry Commercial

phase research test demonstration application

Capture

Geological

utilization

Biological

utilization

Legend2011 2018

Transport

Chemical

utilization

Geological

storage

Page 19: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Assessment of technological progress

The development of key technologies among the CCUS full chain in

China between 2011 and 2018

Capture: Current first-generation CO2 capture technologies have gradually become more mature.

Second-generation capture technologies are still in the laboratory research and trial stages, and are

only expected to be promoted and adopted widely by around 2035.

Transport: China has completed the preliminary design of pipeline projects with 1 million t/a

transport capacity, and has the ability to design large-scale pipelines.

Geological utilization: CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) technology has been applied in many

EOR demonstration projects. Enhanced coalbed methane recovery technology is also currently being

tested and demonstrated. Enhanced natural gas, shale gas, and geothermal energy extraction

technologies are in the early research stage.

Chemical utilization: CO2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is

overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies have been demonstrated, including syngas reforming

and the synthesis of degradable polymers and organic carbonate esters.

Biological utilization: The main products of this process include food and feed, biofertilizers,

chemicals, biofuels, and gas fertilizers. The products of biological CO2 use have high added-value and

economic benefits. Food and feed transformation technologies have been commercialized at scale, but

other technologies are still in the R&D or small-scale demonstration stages.

Geological storage: In China, a theoretical assessment of nationwide CO2 storage potential has been

completed. The total theoretical volume of geological use and onshore storage is greater than 1 trillion t.

Pilot designs and storage demonstrations in offshore aquifers and depleted oil and gas fields have been

completed.Page 10 of 28

Page 20: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Contents

Current technological progress and challenges

Vision and goals

Priority actions and early opportunities

Policy recommendations

Page 11 of 28

Page 21: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

21

An overall vision for CCUS in China

As a strategic technology for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Establish low-cost, low energy consumption, safe,

and reliable CCUS technology systems and

industrial clusters

Provide technological options for the low-carbon

utilization of fossil fuels

Provide technological assurance for tackling

climate change

Provide technological support for the sustainable

development of China's economy and society

Page 12 of 28

Page 22: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Overall CCUS Technology Development Roadmap

in China

Page 13 of 28

By the mid 21st century, gaps in the energy consumption and cost of CCUS technology are expected to be fundamentally overcome.

The extensive promotion and application of CCUS technology in various sectors can achieve the large-scale, low-carbon utilization of fossil fuels and produce negative emissions.

Development

goals

•CO2 utilization and storage

volume (10.000 t/a)

•Output value

(RMB 100 million/a)

Capture

• Scale (10.000 t/a)

High

•Cost concentration

(RMB/t CO2) Low

concentration

Transport •Cost (RMB/t •km)

Geological

utilization

•CO2 utilization volume

(10.000 t/a)

•Output value

(RMB 100 million/a)

Chemical

utilization

•CO2 utilization volume

(10.000 t/a)

•Output value

(RMB 100 million/a)

Biological

utilization

•CO2 utilization volume

(10.000 t/a)

•Output value

(RMB 100 million/a)

Geological

storage

• Storage volume

(10.000 t/a)

•Cost (RMB/t CO2)

900

200

100

100~180

230~310

0.80

300

30

500

90

40

90

100

50~60

>2000

>600

100~300

90~130

190~280

0.70

>700

>60

>1000

>200

>150

>300

>300

40~50

>7000

>1000

300~500

70~80

160~220

0.60

>1500

>100

>2000

>450

>200

>400

>3000

35~40

>80000

>3300

300~500

30~50

80~150

0.45

>5500

>300

>6000

>1500

>900

>1500

>70000

25~30

To master the design and

construction capability for

existing technologies

To master the

industrialization capability

for existing technology, and

verify the feasibility for new

technology

To master the

industrialization capability

for new technology

To master the

industrialization capability

for CCUS project cluster

To achieve extensive

deployment and form

regional new patterns of

CCUS

>20000

>1800

300~500

50~70

100~180

0.55

>3000

>200

>4000

>1000

>300

>600

>15000

30~35

2025 204020352030 2050

Page 23: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Overall development goals

By 2025, a number of industrial demonstration projects

based on existing CCUS technologies will have been

constructed, and CCUS will become feasible from an

engineering perspective

By 2030, the existing technology will begin to enter the

commercialization stage, and CCUS will be ready for

industrialization

By 2035, certain innovative technologies will have been

implemented at large scale

By 2040, breakthroughs in CCUS systematic integration

and risk management technology will be achieved

By 2050, CCUS technology will be extensively deployed,

and multiple industrial CCUS clusters will be establishedPage 14 of 28

Page 24: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Development pathways for capture technology

Page 15 of 28

Second-generation capture technology will become the

dominant technology for achieving low carbon

emissions in China’s thermal power industry.

Precombustion

capture

•Cost

(RMB/t CO2)

•Energy efficiency

loss (%)

260~300

6~9

210~270

6~8

170~210

5~7

100~160

4~7

80-130

3~7

Postcombustion

capture

•Cost

(RMB/t CO2)

•Energy efficiency

loss (%)

230~330

7~12

190~250

7~11

160~200

7~10

150~180

6~9

120~150

5~8

Oxyfuel

combustion

capture

•Cost

(RMB/t CO2)

•Energy efficiency

loss (%)

230~310

7~10

210~280

7~9

160~210

6~9

130~180

6~8

90~150

5~7

To master the design

and construction

capability for the

first-generation

capture technology,

and verify the

feasibility for the

second-generation

technology.

To master the

industrialization

capability of the

first-generation

capture

technology and

design capability

for the second-

generation

technology.

To achieve the

commercializati

on of the first-

generation

capture

technology and

initial

application for

the second-

generation

technology.

To replace the

first-generation

capture

technology with

the second-

generation

technology

playing the

dominating role.

To widely the

second-

generation

technology in

many industries.

2025

2035

2040

2050

2030

Page 25: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Development pathways for geological, chemical,

and biological utilizations

Page 16 of 28

During the period of 2030-2035, CO2 chemical utilization will gradually reach a

commercial application level. The economic feasibility of biological CO2 utilization

and geological utilization technologies will be less constrained by external factors

and will reach a commercialization level by 2040.

Page 26: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Development pathways for transport and storage

Page 17 of 28

By 2040, a number of one-million-ton or multi-million-ton industrial demonstration

projects for seabed saline aquifer storage will be completed, and transport by low-

cost offshore ships will be commercialized. By 2050, storage in seabed saline aquifers

will be commercialized, and seabed pipeline transportation will achieve a

commercial status.

Page 27: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Development pathways for system integration and

clustering

Page 18 of 28

CCUS clustering is a highly cost-effective development pathway and may be used to

establish a new business model for CCUS associated with Chinese characteristics.

Page 28: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Contents

Current technological progress and challenges

Vision and goals

Priority actions and early opportunities

Policy recommendations

Page 19 of 28

Page 29: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Accelerate the R&D, demonstration, and

promotion of utilization technologies

Regions (or industries) with early opportunities for utilization

technologies

Page 20 of 28

CO2 utilization technology has a “win-win”-type attribute that ensures social and economic benefits

Utilization Technology Proposed Area (or industry)

Enhanced oil recovery Ordos Basin. Junggar Basin. Hailar Basin. Songliao Basin. Etc.

Enhanced coalbed methane recovery Ordos Basin. Junggar Basin. Qinshui Basin. etc.

Enhanced natural gas recovery Ordos Basin. Sichuan Basin. Tarim Basin.etc.

Enhanced shale gas recovery Sichuan Basin. Ordos Basin. etc.

Enhanced geothermal recovery Qinghai. Fujian. Jilin. Tibet and other provinces.

In-situ leaching of uranium mine Yili Basin. Turpan-Hami Basin. Ordos Basin. Songliao Basin. etc.

Enhanced deep saline aquifer recovery Junggar Basin. Turpan-Hami Basin. Ordos Basin.

Synthesis of organic carbonate Solvent. Gasoline additive. Lithium ion battery electrolyte. etc.

Syngas reforming Oil and gas chemical industry. Coal chemical industry. etc.

Preparation of liquid fuel Renewable energy industry. etc.

Synthesis of methanol Organic synthesis. Pharmaceuticals. Pesticide. coating. dye. automtive. national defense. etc.

Synthesis of degradable polymers Food. medical packaging. etc

Synthesis of polymer polyols Polyurethane

Synthesis of iso-cyanate/polyurethane Bulk engineering plastics, coal chemical industry, natural gas, chemical industry, etc.

Steel slag mineralization Concrete. cemnet. etc

Gypsum mineralization Ammonium sulphate, concretet, building locks, spray coationg building materials, etc.

Low-grade minerals processing with mineralization Builing materials, potash, high-value metals and materials, etc.

Conversion to chemicals and biofuel Renewable energy industry, etc.

Conversion to biofertilizer Ecological agriculture, etc.

Conversion to food and feed Food, health care products, etc.

Gas-fertilizer utilization Agriculture, etc.

Depleted gas field storage Sichuan Baisn, Oridos Basin, Junggar Basin. Songliao Basin, etc.

Depleted oilfield srotage Songliao Basin, Bohai Bay Basin, etc.

Onshore saline aquifer storage Ordos Basin, Tarim Basin, etc.

Seabed saline aquifer storage Pearl River Estuary Basin, etc.

Page 30: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Achieve breakthroughs in key new capture

technologies

Priority actions in capture in stages

Page 21 of 28

Focusing on the breakthroughs in capture technology is the key

option to reduce the cost and energy consumption of CCUS

Prtority action -2025 -2030 -2035

Postcombustion

capture

• Development and demonstration of corresponding

processes for composite organic amine absorbents;

development and testing of new-generation organic amine

absorbents;

• Development of membrane materials and high-efficiency

solid absorbents;

• Launching for 300,000-ton-level industrial demonstration.

• Development and demonstration of corresponding process for

new-generation organic amine absorbent;

• Industrial grade demonstration of membrane materials and

high-efficiency solid absorbents;

• Launched for million-ton-level industrial demonstration.

• Integrated demonstration and promotion

of capture process and industry for

new-generation organic amine

absorbents;

• New-generation membrane materials

and high-efficiency solid absorbents,

and corresponding process development

and industrial demonstrations.

Precombustion

capture

• Development of new-type integrated technology for

gasification/decarbonization;

• Development and pilot-scale test of advanced physical

absorbents and process;

• Development and pilot-scale test of new-type solid

absorption agents (adsorbents);

• Development of medium-and-high-temperature CO2

separation membrane materials.

• Pilot-sacle test of new-type integrated technology for

gasification/decarbonization;

• Development of system integration optimization technology;

• New-type solid absorption agents (adsorbents) and processes

demonstration;

• Test and demonstration of medium-and-high- temperature CO2

separation membrane materials and process systems;

• Project demonstration at the scale of over 1 million t/a in coal

chemical industry;·

• Project demonstration at the scale of 300,000-500,000 t/a in

power industry.

• Industrial demonstration of next-

generation low-energy-consumption

capture technology;

• Million-ton-level industrial

demonstration of IGCC+

precombustion capture.

Oxyfuel

combustion capture

• Large-scale demonstration of low energy consumption

oxygen production technology;

• Development of acid gas co-compression purification

technology; ·

• Development and pilot test of new-type oxygen carriers;

• Full-process thermal coupling optimization technology;

• Completion of 10,000-ton-level oxygen combustion

intermediate text under ordinary pressure and

pressurization.

• Full-process project demonstration of million-ton-level oxyfuel

combustion under ordinary pressure;

• Industrial demonstration of 100,000-ton-level chemical

looping and pressurized oxyfuel combustion.

• Commercialization promotion of

oxyfuel combustion under constant

pressure;

• Large-scale demonstration of oxyfuel

combustion under chemical looping

and pressurization.

Page 31: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Conduct full-chain systematic integration and

large-scale demonstrations

Regional clusters of CCUS technology

Page 22 of 28

Full-chain system integration and demonstration are necessary

stages for the commercial application and development of CCUS

Ordos Basin

Emission

sources

•Chemical

industry

•Power

industry

Capture

•Postcombustion

capture

•Oxyfuel

combustion

capture

•Precombustion

capture

Utilization and storage•Biological utilization

•Chemical utilization

•Enhanced oil recovery

•In-situ leaching of uranium mine

•Enhanced coalbed methane recovery

•Enhanced deep saline aquifer recovery

•Enhanced shale gas recovery

•Saline aquifer storage

•Depleted oilfield and gas field storage

Junggar Basin and

Turpan-Hami Basin

Emission

sources

•Chemical

industry

•Power industry

•Cement

industry

•Steel industry

Capture

•Postcombustion

capture

•Precombustion

capture

•Oxyfuel

combustion

capture

Utilization and storage•Biological utilization

•Chemical utilization

•Enhanced oil recovery

•In-situ leaching of uranium mine

•Enhanced coalbed methane recovery

•Enhanced deep saline aquifer recovery

•Enhanced shale gas recovery

•Saline aquifer storage

•Depleted oilfield and gas field storage

Sichuan BasinEmission sources

•Power industry

•Steel industry

•Cement industry

•Petroleum refining

•Biomass

Capture

•Postcombustion capture

•Precombustion capture

Utilization and storage•Biological utilization

•Chemical utilization

•Enhanced shale gas recovery

•Enhanced natural gas recovery

•Saline aquifer storage

•Depleted oilfield and gas field storage

Emission

sources

•Power industry

•Steel industry

•Cement

industry

•Coal chemical

industry

•Biomass

Capture

•Postcombustion

capture

•Precombustion

capture

•Oxyfuel

combustion

capture

Utilization and storage•Chemical utilization

•Biological utilization

•Enhanced oil recovery

•In-situ leaching of uranium mine

•Enhanced geothermal energy

recovery

•Enhanced coalbed methane

recovery

•Enhanced shale gas recovery

•Enhanced natural gas recovery

•Saline aquifer storage

•Depleted oilfield and gas field

storage

Bohai Bay BasinEmission

sources

•Power industry

•Steel industry

•Cement

industry

•Coal chemical

industry

•Biomass

Capture

•Postcombustion

capture

•Oxyfuel

combustion

capture

•Precombustion

capture

Utilization and storage•Chemical utilization

•Biological utilization

•Enhanced oil recovery

•In-situ leaching of uranium mine

•Saline aquifer storage

•Depleted oilfield and gas field

storage

Pearl River Estuary Basin and coastal areas in Guangdong and

Guangxi

Capture

•Postcombustion capture

•Oxyfuel combustion

capture

•Precombustion capture

Page 32: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Contents

Current technological progress and challenges

Vision and goals

Priority actions and early opportunities

Policy recommendations

Page 23 of 28

Page 33: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Enhance the R&D capacity building

Exploring the supportive mechanisms for CCUS

R&D and demonstrations as well as talent cultivation

Establishing a national infrastructure platform for

R&D

Establishing a cooperation platform for the

government, industries, education and research

institutions

Strengthening the dynamic monitoring, strategic

research, and cooperation mechanisms of the

intellectual property rights associated with CCUS

Page 24 of 28

Page 34: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Actively and orderly promote early integrated

demonstrations

Promoting the screening and assessment of early-stage

demonstration projects

Conducting early-stage demonstrations in priority

industries and key regions

Formulating regulations and industrial standards for

CCUS R&D and demonstrations in the early stage

Increasing the national financial support for

demonstration projects, especially for integrated

demonstration projects

Encouraging newly-established projects with large-

scale emissions to reserve infrastructure for capture

Page 25 of 28

Page 35: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Strengthen the research on CCUS industrialization

policies

Incorporating CCUS into the national low-carbon

technology portfolio

Establishing industrial specifications for CCUS

Extending collaborative research on cooperation

mechanisms within the industrial chain

Enhancing the strategic planning and dynamic

monitoring of CCUS-related intellectual property

rights

Bolstering the public acceptance of CCUS technology

Page 26 of 28

Page 36: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

36

Reinforce the international cooperation and

technology transfer

CCUS in China is igniting…

Proactively promoting international cooperation

and the exchange of CCUS technology

Promoting the connection of CCUS technology

in China with the international market

Page 27 of 28

Page 37: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Any comments and suggestions

will be appreciated

Thank you !

E-mail: [email protected] http://ceep.bit.edu.cn/

CEM CCUS webinar: CCUS in China

Page 38: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Lan-Cui LiuProfessorBeijing Normal University & Beijing Institute of Technology

Panelist

Liu Lan-Cui is a Professor of Business School at Beijing Normal University (BNU). Prior to working at the BNU, Dr. Liu was a Professor and Director of the Center of Climate and Environmental Policy of Chinese Academy Environmental Planning from June 2008 to April 2016. Her main research interests are carbon emissions reduction policies, environmental impact of CCUS technology and consumption, co-benefit analysis of greenhouse gases and main air pollutions, and energy and environmental policies and modeling.

She is the leading author for the technical guideline for environmental risk assessment of carbon capture, utilization and storage (Trial), Notice on strengthening environmental protection of carbon capture, utilization and storage demonstration projects, released by Ministry of Environmental Planning (Ministry of Ecology and Environment). She has published more than 30 papers in widely peer review Journals such as Energy, Journal of Clean Production, Energy Policy, Ecological Economics, and Environmental Impact Assessment Review.

Page 39: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

www.ceep.net.cn

A proposed global layout of carbon capture, utilization, and storage

Yi-Ming Wei,Jia-Ning Kang , Lancui Liu , Qi Li , Pengtao Wang , Juan-Juan Hou , Qiao-Mei Liang , Hua Liao , Biying Yu , Shi-Feng

Huang

Center for Energy & Environmental Policy Research

Beijing Institute of Technology

March 5, 2020

39

The Clean Energy Ministerial CCUS initiative webinar

Page 40: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Background

“In the IEA 2℃ scenario, CCS delivers 94 Gt of CO2

emissions reductions across industry and power generation through 2050”.

“CCS technologies deliver 14% of the cumulative CO2

emissions reductions, with around 142 Gt CO2 captured inthe period to 2060.”

40IEA. 20 years of Carbon Capture and Storage. https://webstore.iea.org/20-years-of-carbon-capture-and-storage.

IEA. Energy technology perspective 2017.

Page 41: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

41

32

94

142

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

CO

2 (G

t)

Glo

bal em

ission

s in 2

01

7

Cu

mu

lative red

uctio

n b

y 2

05

0

Cu

mu

lative red

uctio

n b

y 2

06

0

Page 42: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

The development of CCUS needs to be accelerated.

By 2019, there were a total of 51 large-scale CCUS projects worldwide, of whichonly 19 projects were in operation (Global CCS Institute, 2019).

Less than 0.1 Gt (260 million tons) CO2 emissions has been stored.

North America has 24 large-scale CCUS projects, of which 12 are in operation.

Europe has a total of 12 projects, but most of them are at the stage of earlyplanning and design.

China has 8 large-scale CCUS projects in the construction or early developmentstage.

42

Source: Global CCS Institute, 2019. Global Status Report 2019.

Page 43: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

The global layout of CCUS consistent with the 2 ℃ target becomes urgent to fill the emissions gaps.

43

Where is these 94/146 Gt of CO2 emissions?

Where these 94/146 Gt of CO2

emissions can be safely stored?

Larger carbon sources

Suitable carbon sinks

The optimal matchingof source- sink in acost-effective Solution.

Page 44: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Carbon sources

44

The global layout should identify large CO2 emissions “clusters”, rather thansporadic large stationary emission sources.

It should consider not only emissions from current large sources, but alsofuture emissions from new sources.

Except for fossil-fired power plants, more industrial sources of emissionsshould be considered.

The most important step is to define emission clusters and determine theglobal distribution of different emission clusters.

Wang, P., Wei, Y., Yang, B., Li, J., Kang, J., Liu, L., Yu, B., Hou, Y.., Zhang, X., 2020. Carbon capture and storage in China’s power sector:

Optimal planning under the 2 °C constraint. Applied Energy, 263, 114694.

Page 45: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Carbon sink

The storage potential of all possible areas in sedimentary basins worldwide should be assessed.

Based on comprehensive consideration of social and economic environmental factors, practical and feasible storage sites should be screened and ranked.

45

Source: IPCC, 2005 Our analysis

Prospective areas in sedimentary basins Distribution of social and economic environmental factors in

China’s prospective areas

Page 46: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

The global source-sink matching

46

It will not be point-to-point source-sink matching, different from the current operation projects.

It will need the complex transportation pipelines.

It need to be optimized to minimize costs.

Wang, P., Wei, Y., Yang, B., Li, J., Kang, J., Liu, L., Yu, B., Hou, Y.., Zhang, X., 2020. Carbon capture and storage in China’s power sector:

Optimal planning under the 2 °C constraint. Applied Energy, 263, 114694.

CO2

CO2 source

CO2 utilization

CO2 injectionOil, gas, salinewater, etc.

CO2

reservoir

CO2 captureplant

Page 47: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

The global layout

47

Carbon clusters refer to an area consisting of adjacent grids with

individual emissions exceeding 10,000 tons and total emissions

exceeding 0.3 million tons.

4,157 worldwide carbon emission clusters, mainly located in

121 countries.

The theoretical global geological storage potential of 290 oil/gas

reservoirs and 475 deep saline aquifers available around the

world is 6360 Gt.

Page 48: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

The global layout

The source-sink matching model determines that a

total amount of 63 Gt CO2 can be sequestered into

deep saline aquifers, and 29 Gt CO2 can be sealed in the

oil/gas reservoirs across the world.

Globally, 67% of the source-sink matches are within 500

km, and 17% are within 500-800 km.

The average CO2 price will be approximately $60/ton.

Page 49: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Policy supports

Laws addressing the environmental safety of CO2 storage.

Incentive policies encouraging the deployment of CCUS.

49

Lan-Cui Liu, Qi Li, Jiu-Tian Zhang, Dong Cao. Toward a framework of environmental risk management for CO2 geological

storage in china: gaps and suggestions for future regulations. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2016, 21: 191-207.

Page 50: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

National regulations for CO2 storage

Australia:Environmental Guidelines for Carbon Dioxide Capture and Geological

Storage – 2009.

EU: Directive 2009/31/EC of the European Parliament and of the council

US: Federal Requirements Under the Underground Injection Control (UIC)

Program for Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Geologic Sequestration (GS) Wells; Final Rule,

2011

UK: The Storage of Carbon Dioxide (Licensing) Regulations 2010

Japan: Amendment of Marine Pollution Prevention Law

China: Technical Guideline on Environmental Risk Assessment for Carbon

Dioxide Capture, Utilization and Storage (on Trial)

Page 51: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Australia EU US UK Japan

Permit √ √ √ √ √

Environmental impact

√ √ √ √

Monitoring √ √ √ √ √

Remedy plan √ √ √

Page 52: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Incentive policies

The 115th Congress of the United States has amended the 45Q of the federal law on tax incentivesto increase the CO2 tax credit for safe geological storage projects.

The new provision is that from 2017 to 2026, the amount of CO2 credits that are used to increasethe recovery of crude oil and be safely stored, will grow linearly from 12.83 dollar/ton to 35dollar/ton; the CO2 credits for the saline acquires storage will increase linearly from 22.66 dollar/tonto 50 dollar/ton.

The Sleipner and Snøhvit projects in Norway have also been supported by the incentives on carbon tax credits.

The high investment cost and long investment cycle of CCUS can not be separated from effectiveincentive policy supports.

52

Page 53: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Policy implications

Establish effective policies and regulations on CCUS. Establishing policies and regulations on CCUSneeds to start with a variety of measures, including introducing incentives, guiding storage siteselection, monitoring guidelines, and long-term supervision of the safety and environmental risks.

Strengthen technology research and development. Governments and enterprises of all countriesshould increase investment in R&D of CCUS and strengthen the transformation of technologicalachievements. These measures promote the cost reduction for combating climate change whileimproving the CCUS technological competitive advantage.

53

Page 54: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Strengthen international cooperation in the field of CCUS. It is recommended that countriesstrengthen cooperation, especially CCUS technical cooperation, technology transfer, and knowledgesharing.

Actively explore business models. It is recommended that governments of all countries shouldrelease active investment and financing policies to promote the development of CCUS through theparticipation of all social capital. To share uncertain risks, enterprises should actively cooperate torealize the complementary advantages of technology and capital.

54

Page 55: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

www.ceep.net.cn

Thank you for your listening!

Welcome for any question!

55

Page 56: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Jia-Ning KangResearcherBeijing Institute of Technology

Panelist

Jia-Ning Kang currently serves as a Ph.D. candidate at the Center for Energy & Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology.

Her research interests mainly focus on energy innovation, climate policy, green power technology assessment and foresight. Jia-Ning got her BS degree in Information Management and Information System from Dalian University of Technology, China.

Page 57: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

www.ceep.net.cn

The Prospects of Carbon Capture and Storage inChina’s Power Sector under the 2℃ Targets

Jia-Ning Kang, Yi-Ming Wei*, Lancui Liu, Rong Han, Hao Chen, Jiaquan Li, Jin-Wei Wang, Biying Yu

Center for Energy & Environmental Policy Research

Beijing Institute of Technology

March 5, 2020

57

The Clean Energy Ministerial CCUS initiative webinar

CEEP-BIT Working paper:

Page 58: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Background: CCS will play a critical role in the power sector.

Widespread electrification supports emissions reductions across end-use sectors.Decarbonised power is a backbone of the clean energy transformation.

CCS can reduce emissions from the ongoing use of fossil fuels in power generation andgenerate negative emissions from bioenergy generation.

To achieve the well below 2 ℃ warming targets, CCS technologies deliver 14% (142 Gt)of the cumulative CO2 emissions reductions in the period to 2060. Around half of theannual CO2 capture will be from the power sector (IEA, 2017).

58

CCS deployment ratesCO2 reductions by sectors and technologies

Source: IEA (2017) Source: IEA (2017)

Page 59: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Background: CCS is a pivotal technological solution for large-scale CO2 reductions in China’s power sector.

China, as the world’s largest CO2 emitter, is plagued by the fact that coal will continueto play a dominated role in its energy mix for decades to come (Wei et al., 2018).

This phenomenon is particularly evident in the power sector. In 2017, coal-firedpower plants contributed 71.8% of China's total electricity generation (Fan et al.,2018).

CCS is indispensable for China's coal power sector to achieve near-zero emissions.

The IEA has proven that CCS will have a place in the technology portfolio to achievethe 2 ℃ target. China should contribute to cumulative 26 Gt of carbon dioxidereduction through the deployment of CCS, with 67% taken by the power sector and33% by industries (IEA, 2016).

59

Page 60: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Background:Four CCS pathways in China’s power sector

Four deployment pathways:

• Post-combustion capture pathway in Supercritical Pulverized Coal plants (post-SPC)

• Pre-combustion capture pathway in Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle plants (pre-IGCC)

• Post-combustion capture pathway in Natural Gas Combined Cycle plants (post-NGCC)

• Oxy-fuel combustion pathway in Pulverized Coal plants (Oxy-fuel)

The post-SPC pathway has been the most widely deployed in China’s power system.

Five demonstration projects have been established, each of which has an annual capture capacity of more than

0.1 million tons of CO2.

China Huaneng Group has built China's first commercial IGCC power plant (265 MW)with capture capacity of 0.1 million tons of CO2.

The Oxy-fuel pathway is still in the laboratorial stage.

There is no demonstration project for post-NGCC pathway yet.

60

Page 61: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Background: Research purpose

The cost reduction potential of CCS has been neglected for a long time, resulting in aspread of pessimistic attitude towards the future of CCS.

Trying to answer what the most plausible future of CCS looks like has been extremelycomplicated, especially in China’s power sector.

There are two main challenges:

(1) It is not clear that what the cost reduction potential of CCS caused by technologicaladvancement is, especially in developing countries, such as China;

(2) How to endogenize the non-linear technological innovation process to the traditionaltechnology selection models is also a issue.

This study foresees the prospects of CCS in China’s power sector under the 2 ℃targets, which is aimed at answering the following two questions:

(1) How much money is demanded for implementing four CCS pathways with the progress ofcapture technologies in China’s power sector?

(2) Under the dual constraints of 2 ℃ targets and minimum cost, which CCS pathways should beregarded as a strategic priority in China’s power sector under various scenarios?

61

Page 62: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Method: Research Framework

This study sets three scenarios based on the time that CCS has the conditions forcommercialization in the power sector.

Accelerated Improvement Scenario (AIS): The commercialization time of CCS in China’s power sector is 2025;

Continued Improvement Scenario (CIS): The commercialization time of CCS in China’s power sector is 2030;

Belated Improvement Scenario (BIS): The commercialization time of CCS in China’s power sector is 2035.

62

Therefore, this study provides the instance for the learning curves of unit CO2 avoidancecost for four CCS pathways in the power sector from China’s perspective based on acomponent-based approach.

We then establish a non-linear technology optimization model with endogenoustechnological progress.

Page 63: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

Method: Component-based learning curve

63

The learning curve depicts the correlation between unit cost and cumulative output,which is usually used to predict the future trend of cost decline (Argote and Epple,1990).

The learning rate (LR) is the proportion of the cost reduction with each doubling ofcumulative outputs.

Basic form:

The principle of the component-based learning curve is to break down the total costof a complex system into key components. The cost reduction potential of the wholesystem, in fact, largely depends on the technological breakthrough and cost learningeffect of key components (Rubin et al., 2007a).

Page 64: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

64

Method: Non-linear technology optimization model

Objective function: minimize the total CO2 avoided cost required by CCS

Constraints: engineering, technical level, resource, government planning

Page 65: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

65

Results: Learning rates of the CO2 avoided cost for four CCS pathways in China’s power sector

The learning rates of the CO2 avoided cost for Oxy-fuel, SPC with post-combustion, IGCC with pre-combustion, and NGCC with post-combustion are 5.7%, 11.8%, 9.8%, and 6.6%, respectively.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

7 14 21 28 34 40 46 52 56 62 68 75 82 88 95 100

NGCC plant with post-combustion capture

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 100

IGCC plant with pre-combustion capture

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

7 14 21 28 34 40 46 52 56 62 68 75 82 88 95 100

SPC Plant with oxy-combustion capture

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

3 6 9 14 24 34 44 56 70 80 92 100

SPC plant with post-combustion capture

Cumulative Capacity (GW)

Leve

lize

dco

st o

f ele

ctr

icit

y (

US

$/M

Wh)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 100

IGCC plant with pre-combustion capture

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

7 14 21 28 34 40 46 52 56 62 68 75 82 88 95 100

NGCC plant with post-combustion capture

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

7 15 21 28 34 40 46 52 56 62 68 75 82 88 95 100

SPC Plant with oxy-combustion capture

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

3 6 9 14 24 34 44 56 70 80 92 100

SPC plant with post-combustion capture

Cumulative Capacity (GW)

Co

sto

f C

O2

avo

ided (

US

$/t

CO

2)

Learning curves of the generation cost and CO2 avoided cost for four CCS pathways

Page 66: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

66

Results: Technology deployment and costs

To achieve the 2℃ target, the results show that the installed capacity of CCS power plants is expectedto be 491 GW in China’s power sector by 2050 under AIS scenario.

The CCS capacity under CIS is suggested to be 527 GW; while for BIS, it is estimated at an alarmingcapacity of 653 GW.

In China’s power sector, CCS deployment for achieving the necessary CO2 reductions demanded forthe 2℃ target will expenditure approximately $389 billion and $441 billion under AIS scenario andCIS scenario, respectively.For BIS, this cost will soar to $ 506 billion due to the lag in large-scale promotion.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity

(G

W)

SPC+CC

IGCC+CC

NGCC+CC

Oxy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Shar

eo

f t

ech

no

logi

es

(a) Accelerated Improvement Scenario (AIS)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Annual

Co

st o

f C

O2

avo

ided (

Bil

lio

n $

) AIS CIS BIS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Annual

Co

st o

f C

O2

avo

ided (

Mil

. $)

SPC+CC IGCC+CC NGCC+CC Oxy

(b)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Annual

Co

st o

f C

O2

avo

ided (

Mil

. $) SPC+CC IGCC+CC NGCC+CC Oxy

(c)

Total: 441.32 billion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Annual

Co

st o

f C

O2

avo

ided (

Mil

. $)

SPC+CC IGCC+CC NGCC+CC Oxy

(d)

Total: 503.66 billion

14.9%

28.2%

56.8%

15%

2%

27%

56%

11.9%

5.7%

15.2%67.3%

(a)

Total: 388.63 billion

Accelerated improvement scenario

Page 67: Thursday 5 March 2020 08:00 EST 14:00 CET 21:00 CST...2 chemical utilization technology in China has made great progress and is overall in the pilot test stage. Certain technologies

67

Results: The emission reduction contribution of the four pathways

The post-SPC pathway is a major contributor to the CO2 reductions in China’spower sector.

Around 2030-2035, the CO2 reduction effect of pre-IGCC pathway will come into play;

The roles of Oxy-fuel and pre-NGCC to the abatement will be prominent as early as 2045.

Further progress is obliged to speed up the commercialized development of four CCSpathways to achieve benefits at an early date.

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68

Results: Break-even carbon prices

By 2050, the average break-even carbon price in the three scenarios of AIS, CIS, andBIS is approximately 39, 50 and 57 US dollars per ton CO2 (at 2013 constant price),respectively.

The learning effects of technology could reap rewards by means of reducing the external carbon costin the future.

Delayed commercialization of CCS and high initial costs will greatly exacerbate long-term carbonprices.

It is recommended that the government should monitor the gap between the carbon market price andthe break-even price of CCS in real time, which is informative for pursuing subsidies and taxationpolicies.

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Policy suggestions: The Four-Step Development Strategy

For the relief of the overall burden of abatement costs, the study recommends that the large-scale CCS promotion should be between 2025 and 2030 for China's power sector.

Authorities should continue their efforts to the breakthroughs in key equipment or productupgrades to pave the way for CCS large-scale commercialization.

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Research on CCUS from CEEP-BIT:layout optimization, technology assessment, investment analysis, life cycle assessment, water security, energy penalty.

Zhang, X., Fan, J.-L., Wei, Y.-M. 2013. Technology roadmap study on carbon capture, utilization andstorage in China. Energy Policy 59, 536-550.

Zhang, X., Wang, X., Chen, J., et al. 2014. A novel modeling based real option approach for CCSinvestment evaluation under multiple uncertainties. Applied Energy 113, 1059-1067.

Li, J., Hou, Y., Wang, P., et al. 2018. A Review of Carbon Capture and Storage Project Investment andOperational Decision-Making Based on Bibliometrics. Energies 12, 23.

Li, J., Mi, Z., Wei, Y.-M., et al. 2019. Flexible options to provide energy for capturing carbon dioxide incoal-fired power plants under the Clean Development Mechanism. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategiesfor Global Change 24, 1483-1505.

Li, H., Jiang, H., Yang, B., et al. 2019. An analysis of research hotspots and modeling techniques oncarbon capture and storage. Science of The Total Environment 687, 687-701.

Li, J., Yu, B., Tang, B., et al. 2020. Investment in carbon dioxide capture and storage combined withenhanced water recovery. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 94, 102848.

Yang B, Wei Y.-M., Hou Y, et al. 2019. Life cycle environmental impact assessment of fuel mix-basedbiomass co-firing plants with CO2 capture and storage. Applied Energy 252, 113483.

Wang, P.-T., Wei, Y-M, Yang, B, et al. 2020. Carbon capture and storage in China’s power sector Optimalplanning under the 2℃ constraint. Applied Energy 263, 114694.

Wang, P.-T., Wei, Y.-M.. 2020. Impact of large coal-fired power plants with CCS implement on urbanwater use in China under 2℃-constraint scenarios. CEEP-BIT Working Paper.

Yang, B., Wei, Y.-M., Liu, L.-C., et al. 2020. Life cycle cost assessment of biomass co-firing plants with CO2

capture and storage:An Empirical Analysis from China. CEEP-BIT Working Paper.

Zhou, H.L., Silveira, S., Tang, B.J.. 2020. Optimal timing for carbon capture retrofitting in biomass-coalcombined heat and power plants in China. CEEP-BIT Working Paper.

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www.ceep.net.cn

Thank you for your listening!

Welcome for any question!

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QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION

Webinar recordings provided on

YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/user/cleanenergypolicy

Yi-Ming Wei

Professor, Lab Director, and Vice

President

Beijing Institute of Technology

Xian Zhang

Director

The Administrative Center for China’s

Agenda 21

Lan-Cui Liu

Professor

Beijing Normal University & Beijing

Institute of Technology

Jia-Ning Kang

Researcher

Beijing Institute of Technology

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Interested? Want to get involved?

If you want to learn more about the initiative, please reach out to us: [email protected].

FOLLOW US ON LINKEDIN and TWITTER:

https://www.linkedin.com/company/clean-energy-ministerial-ccus-initiative/

@ccuscem

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Our next webinar:

“Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage in the Netherlands”

Thursday 2 April 2020, @ 14:00 CET

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