ti em 2020

© 2012 IBM Corporation

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TI 2020: Os desafios e o novo papel de TI e dos CIOs

Cezar TaurionTechnical [email protected]


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Commodity


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Computadores em lugares antes inimagináveis…


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As coisas acontecem muito rapido no mundo cada vez mais hiperconectado


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Quem é esta geração digital?

� Usam tecnologias digitais no seu dia a dia e esperam usá-las no trabalho. São early adopters por natureza.

� Entram no mundo online cada vez mais cedo... usam a Internet comolaboratório social, para testar limites do relacionamento.

�Vivem em ritmo cada vez mais acelerado e são multitarefas (usam celular, MP3, PC...tudo ao mesmo tempo!)


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Uma nova família

A NOVA CASA

O NOVO PAI

A NOVA MÃE

O NOVO FILHO


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Um novo ambiente de trabalho

A NOVA ORGANIZAÇÃOO NOVO CHEFEO NOVO ESCRITÓRIOA GLOBALIZAÇÃO


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A SOCIEDADE CONECTADA

TECNOLOGIAPERVASIVA E COMPUTAÇÃO SOCIAL

UMA NOVO AMBIENTE DE TRABALHO

TUDO EM TEMPO REAL

UMA NOVA GERAÇÃO


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A 3ª geração da plataforma de computação, a 3ª fase da Internet, e a explosão de informações estão colidindo para formar uma revolução de ruptura e de transformação

InternetWeb2.0

Web 3.0 (Cloud, Mobile, Social)

1964 2008200319941981

Mainframe

Client Server/PC

Mobile Devices (Smartphones,

Tablets, etc)

Quantidade de dados coletados e armazenados

Gerações de plataformas Computacionais

Fases da Internet

2012

2020-2


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Quatro tendências estão mudando inteiramentemuitas indústrias e o próprio mercado de TI

Mobilidade Cloud Big Data SocialCloudCloud


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Consumerization of IT – New paradigm

Company acquisition

User acquisition

The Consumerization trend is all about employees wanting to use the same technologies for business as they use in their personal lives.


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Consumerization of IT – Trend Overview

22

Drivers • consumer mobile computing

• consumer social media

• remote and mobile workforce

• rise of corporate social business

Challenges• CIOs must be flexible and provide new ways for employees to access corporate applications from their own personal devices.

• Have to support different devices, platforms, carriers and countries

• Secure access to corporate data

Implications• IT departments have to accommodate more and more demands placed upon their services while keeping

corporate systems secure• The line between business and person continues to blur

• Consumerization is a major, transformational trend with significant impact on business processes business

and IT services market

“By 2016, more than 900 million tablets will be in the hands of users. As more consumers buy them, they then

tend to bring them to the workplace and use them for their jobs – often led by executives” – Gartner

“Consumerization … describes the trend for new information technology to emerge first in the

consumer market and then spread into business organizations, resulting in the convergence of the IT

and consumer electronics industries, and a shift in IT innovation from large businesses to the home” –Wikipedia

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© 2012 IBM Corporation23

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Mobile innovation is slated to be the next big wave in computing


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Mobile explosion

“By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide”

Source: Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2010 and Beyond:

http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1278413

Researchers reported that time spent on apps began to outpace time spent on the desktop or mobile Web Researchers reported that time spent on apps began to outpace time spent on the desktop or mobile Web

BY 2015 mobile application development projects targeting

smartphones/tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratio of 4-1

BY 2015 mobile application development projects targeting

smartphones/tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratio of 4-1


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Mobile Computing will impact all business processes, requiring new application solutions written just for mobile

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“Second generation mobile strategies differ considerably from those of the

first generation. They must be multichannel, part of your holistic digital

strategy, and include innovative mobile-only capabilities.” – Gartner

IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report

New Strategies / Solutions Needed


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Gartner has progressed Cloud further to the right of the emerging technologies hype cycle, indicating that cloud is moving closer to mainstream adoption

Gartner’s hype cycle for emerging technologies has progressed Cloud closer to mainstream adoption over the past few years

Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2009

Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2011

Source: MD Market Analysis, Gartner


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IT is drawn to cloud’s cost, efficiency and control…

…while business users are drawn to cloud’s simplified,self-service experience and new service capabilities.

of CIOs plan to use cloud—up from 33% two years ago.

of business executives believe cloudenables business transformation and leaner, faster, more agile processes.

2011 IBM CIO Study, London School of Economics, December 2010

Eff

icie

ncy

Tra

nsfo

rmati

on

IT and Business are attracted to cloud for different reasons.


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Value delivered

Change management

Test provisioning

Install database

Install of operating system

Provisioning environment

Design and deploy business applications

From traditional To cloud

Months

Weeks

1 day

1 day

▄

Months

Days or hours

20 minutes

12 minutes

30–60 minutes

51% cost savings

Days/Weeks

Cloud is a real Paradigm Shift


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Envisioning the full potential of cloud requires organizations to challenge existing approaches in their business and industry

Reflecting on your business, question yourself – “What you would do if…

… you had access to unlimited computing

resources to scale your business?


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… you could reach hitherto unaddressed customers or

markets and target them based on their individualized preferences

through analytical insights?





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…you could give any of your customers access to any of your products and services anytime, anywhere, on any

device?


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… you could inexpensively and rapidly develop and

launch new product & service offerings?


device?


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… you could easily and seamlessly connect and

collaborate with business partners and customers?

… you could inexpensively and rapidly develop and

launch new product & service offerings?


device?

…you could redefine your role in your industry and change your competitive

positioning?


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Cloud harnesses the capabilities borne out of these trends to empower six potentially “game changing” business enablers

Source: IBV Analysis

Cloud’s Business Enablers

Cost

Flexibility1

� Shifts fixed to variable cost� Pay as and when needed

Business

Scalability2

� Provides limitless, cost-effective computing capacity to support growth

Masked

Complexity4

� Expands product sophistication� Simpler for customers/usersContext-driven

Variability5

� User defined experiences

� Increases relevance

Ecosystem

Connectivity 6

� New value nets� Potential new businesses

Market

Adaptability

� Faster time to market� Supports experimentation

3


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Escalability + Cost Flexibility

A projected US$ 21 million cost physical supercomputer, versus a 50.000 core cloud virtual supercomputer in a public cloud running a 3 hour simulation with a cost of US$ 4.828,85 per hour to run. During these 3 hours It was the 42°°°° fastest supercomputer in the world.


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What is coming?

In 2021, cloud computing is simply computing,

corporate office parks are senior housing facilities and

the IT organization of the future has been absorbed by

the business.

� Internal IT becomes an internal cloud.

� IT becomes a services broker.

� IT will become a function of the business.

Gartner, 2011


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Big Data: Why we must move to a new era of computing

Volume

Terabytes to exabytes of existing data to process

Velocity

Streaming data, milliseconds to seconds to respond

Variety

Structured, unstructured, text & multimedia

Veracity

Uncertainty from inconsistency, ambiguities, etc.


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Up to 10,000 Times larger

Up to 10,000 times faster

Traditional Data Warehouse and Business Intelligence

Da

ta S

ca

le

Data

Scale

yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms µs

Exa

Peta

Tera

Giga

Mega

Kilo

Decision FrequencyOccasional Frequent Real-time

Data in Motion

Da

ta a

t R

es

t

New “Big Data” Brings New Opportunities, Requires New Analytics

Telco Promotions

100,000 records/sec, 6B/day

10 ms/decision

270TB for Deep Analytics

DeepQA

100s GB for Deep Analytics

3 sec/decision

Smart Traffic

250K GPS probes/sec

630K segments/sec

2 ms/decision, 4K vehicles

Homeland Security

600,000 records/sec, 50B/day

1-2 ms/decision

320TB for Deep Analytics


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Big Data: This is just the beginning

2010

Volu

me in E

xabyte

s

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2015

Percentage of

uncertain data

Perc

ent o

f uncerta

in d

ata

100

80

60

40

20

0

You are here

Sensors & Devices

VoIP

Enterprise Data

Social Media


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Big Data no futuro? Que tal olharmos o Watson?


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50

Time

Co

mp

ute

r In

tell

ige

nc

e

Counting Machine

(Circa 1820)

ENIAC(Circa 1945)

Deep Blue (1997)

Watson (2010)

Learning Systems

AntikytheraAstronomical

Computer (ca 87 BC)

Abacus(Circa 3500 BC)

Napier’s rods(Circa 1600)

The New IT Frontier

System/360 (1964)

“Within ten years a digital computer will be the world's chess champion” 1958,H. A. Simon and Allen Newell

A evolução das “Máquinas Pensantes”


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Mainframe

PCs

Internet

Social

Departmental

Era da tecnologia Pervasiva e Computação Social


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Social Business - Social collaboration is changing the way business is being conducted

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“A Social Business isn't just a company that has a Facebook page and a Twitter account. A Social Business

is one that embraces and cultivates a spirit of

collaboration and community throughout its

organization—both internally and externally.” – IBM

“With 1.2 billion people on social networks, 20 percent of

the world’s population, social computing is in its next

phase. IT leaders must immediately incorporate social software capabilities throughout their enterprise

systems.” – Gartner

“2011 has seen rapid expansion of business change that

is being driven by the social customer, empowered employees, and a convergence of new technical

capabilities. Businesses are deploying and using new

social tools at an ever-increasing pace” – IDC

Defined

“New mass collaboration capabilities are irreversibly redefining what it means to be a highly productive

organization” – Gartner


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Juntando tudo: As fronteiras da Tecnologia

Computing Everywhereand in Everything

Servers

PCs/Tablets

Mobiles

Embedded

Near

Us

Far From Us

Touching Us

In Us

Sensory Devices

Bio-electronic Devices

Pre

sent

Fut

ure

Mobile Computing Era(Current Dominant

Paradigm)

Smarter Era(The Next Frontier)

New Computing Paradigms

+

Neuromorphic andCognitive Computing

QuantumComputing

Bio-Inspired Computation

Natural Interfacesand Connectivity

Touch Computing

Keyboard Entry

Sensory Computing(voice, movement, natural sensing, etc)

Nature

Work and

Leisure

Biology

Computing without Programming

Fetch-> Decode -> Execute

Von Neumann Architectures

Non Von Neumann Architectures


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Computing Everywhereand in Everything

Servers

PCs/Tablets

Mobiles

Embedded

Near

Us

Far From Us

Touching Us

In Us

Sensory Devices

Bio-electronic Devices

Pre

sent

Fut

ure

Mobile Computing Era(Current Dominant

Paradigm)

Smarter Era(The Next Frontier)

New Computing Paradigms

+

Neuromorphic andCognitive Computing

Quantum

ComputingBio-Inspired Computation

Natural Interfacesand Connectivity

Touch Computing

Keyboard Entry

Sensory Computing(voice, movement, natural sensing, etc)

Nature

Work and

Leisure

Biology

Computing without a Program

Fetch-> Decode -> Execute

Von Neumann Architectures

Non Von Neumann ArchitecturesTI torna-se invisivel TI Cognitiva

Juntando tudo: As fronteiras da Tecnologia


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Source: Q1 “What are the most important external forces that will impact your organization over the next 3 to 5 years?”

External forces that will impact the organization

68%

69%

71%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Technology factorsTechnology factors

People skills

Market factors

Macro-economic factors

Regulatory concerns

Globalization

Socio-economic factors

Environmental issues

Geopolitical factors

For the first time, CEOs identify technology as the most important external force impacting their organizations


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IT Service Provider “IT as a function of the business“

IT Strategy for the next decade: an evolution of today‘s focus topics

VirtualizationConsolidation

Cloud

AutomationAutomationAutomationAutomation

SOA

on demand

Service Management

Service QualityCyber CrimePrevention

Big Data

Analytics

Operational Excellence

MobilityCollaborationCollaborationCollaborationCollaboration

Open Source Social MediaData CenterOptimization

Appliances

Smart Devices

Cost Pressure

DataManagement

IT Security

...

...


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Reduce IT cost

IT outcomes

Manage IT cost

Increase business revenue Reduce business cost

Business outcomes

Align with enterprise’sbusiness outcomes

Va

lue

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

“From Cost Center to Profit Center”

The transformation of IT from a cost center to a profit

center does not happen overnight. It requires a well thought out strategy and implementation.

Source: dynamicCIO.com, C R Narayanan, Dec 20, 2011

“IT Value Is Dead. Long Live Business Value.”

Business outcomes from technology investments are all that really matter. The CIO’s challenge is finding new

ways to prove IT’s worth.

Source: CIO.com, Stephanie Overby, May 12 , 2011

Top 10 Business Priorities 2014

Increasing enterprise growth

Improving Operations

Attracting and retaining new customers

1

2

3

Source: Gartner, 2011 CIO Survey

A shift is taking place from delivering IT outcomes to delivering business outcomes


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CIO: Chief Innovation Officer & Chief Digital Officer ou Career Is Over?


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Coragem para sair da zona de conforto…


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Agir rapido, pois o futuro se torna passado rapidamente!


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Obrigado pela Atenção

Cezar [email protected]/developerworks/blogs/page/ctaurion@ctaurionFacebook, Linkedin, BranchOut

ti em 2020

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