tim presentation on 2007 telecom italia day
TRANSCRIPT
TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJOTIM Brasil CEO
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
Agenda
2006 results highlights
The Brazilian market context
2007-09 Plan overview
Summary
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
… we achieved leadership in
… and maintainedour position of
best-performer on
Customer satisfaction/preferenceAwareness (TIM Brasil regained 2006 Top of Mind among mobile operators)Coverage (TIM Brasil remains the only operator with national coverage)ARPUMarket share of net and gross additionsMarket share of GSM lines
Net service revenues (4Q06)
EBITDA margin
VAS revenues (4Q06)
Business segment customer base
Since we met one year ago…
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
Vivo
Claro
Leadership with profitabilityBR GAAP
Service revenues (R$bi, 4Q06)Net share (%, 2006 eop) EBITDA margin (%, FY06)
* Oi and Telemig/Amazonia Celular revenues are estimated
TIM Brasil
25.4%
29.1%
23.9%
Market share
31.7%
30.7%
22.5%
68%
-14%
N/A
24,1% in IAS
Revenue share* ∆% 06-05
38.1%
-5.2%
38.2%
1.9
2.6
2.7
13.3%
23.7%
24.5%
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
23.4%
8,784
10,836
2005 2006
25.4
Commitments fulfilled
* Telecom Group Meeting with the Financial Community 2006** Organic Local currency excluding exceptional items
Net revenues growth (%, eop)Subscribers (Mln, eop) EBITDA margin** (%)
2006 target*
20.2
2005 2006
+7.8pp
16.3%
2005 2006
~24 >20% >20%
24.1%26.0%
IAS2006 performance
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
Agenda
2006 results highlights
The Brazilian market context
2007-09 Plan overview
Summary
6
TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
Growing economy and widening consumer market
Gross domestic product growth Minimum-salary increase vs. inflation
* Government infrastructure investment program to accelerate economySource: EIU, Brazilian Central Bank
Stability and increase of purchasing power
PAC* estimate 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% PAC* inflation estimate 4.1%
Minimum-salary
increase
Inflation
4.5% 4.5%
2.9%3.4%
3.7%4.0%
2.3%
4.9%
2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
5.7%
3.1% 3.9% 4.2%4.1%7.6%
8.3%
15.4%16.7%
2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
Increasing purchasing power of lower income classes
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
Regulatory framework
2006 2007 2008-09
Stability of interconnection tariff in the medium term
F-M termination rate
Arbitration ArbitrationFully
Allocated Cost model
Availability of wireless broadband
3G/Wi-Max licensing -
Public consultation +licensing
Commercial deployment
Additional opportunity to consolidate leadership in high-value customer segments
Number Portability (F+M)
- Definition Implementation
Increase of competition in the fixed-line marketUnbundling
Partially regulated Commercially not
viable
Expected upgrade of regulation
Commercially viable
M-M termination rate
B&K(45/55) < JunPay per use > Jul Pay per use Pay per use Positive for a fair
regulatory environment
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
Telecom growth driven by mobile and BB
Mobile
Fixed(voice)
Fixed (BB)
Fixed-line losing ground, but still a significant market (~R$46 bn, ~60% of total)Limited competition in fixed-line vs. mobileOpportunity for challengers of fixed-line operators
7.9%
-1.0%
20.5%
Lines (millions) Revenues (R$ bn)
CAGR 06-09
Mobile
Fixed(voice)
Fixed (BB)
10.1%
-3.4%
11.9%
71 7782 85 86
36 36 36
86100
112120 126
4 6 8 9 10
3739
2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
7.9 8.8 9.5
40.6 39.6 38.4 37.3 35.6
25.1 30.3 35.8 38.5 40.5
5.7 6.8
2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E
Source: Internal estimate
6.5% at comparable regulatory framework
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
Million lines, gross adds
Residual market in lower income social classes Increase of churn market
* People more than 10 years old** Minimum salary = R$350,00Source: IBGE (PNAD, 2005)
Mobile residual market in lower classes and increase of churnMobile penetration* by social class Gross additions mix evolution
Fresh market
Churn market
43 40 39 38
% of population
Million, %
(> 3 MS**) (1-3 MS) (<1 MS)
93%
28%
59%
11% 31% 58%
High income Medium income Low income
14 11 8 5
33(85%)
31(81%)
29(68%)
29(72%)
2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
Agenda
2006 results highlights
The Brazilian market context
2007-09 Plan overview
Summary
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
TIM Brasil strategic objectives, guidelines...
Market evidence Strategic goals Guidelines
TIM #1 in service revenues
Consolidate our positioning(revenue growth consistently above market average), increasing profitability
End-to-end segmentation to attract and maintain high value customersOperational efficiency to support customer base expansion
Mob
ile
lead
ersh
ip 1
Residual market in lower income classes
Ensure profitability of low ARPU clients
Develop new business model oriented tolow-ARPU customers
Low
-AR
PU
clie
nts
appr
oach
3
Fixed-line = R$ 46 billion market
Capture fixed-line revenues(increase share of spending on TIM Brasil customer base)Defend TIM mobile leadership
New convergent productsHZ with fixed numberingVirtual PABX Internet broadband access...Co
nver
genc
e 4
2
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
... and main targets
Focus on high value customers
Net revenues (R$ bln)Subscribers (mln, eop) EBITDA margin (%)
Improving customer base mix (% post-paid)
Market share 25.4% ~27% 29.4%* ~33%*
Holding voice ARPU Stimulating VAS take-up
Improve efficiency
>10%+>6pp~10% >33
25.4
2006 2009 2006 2009
21.5%
>28%
2006** 2009
* Estimated service revenue share**Net Revenues and Ebitda margin adjusted considering Bill & Keep elimination starting from 01/01/06; Ebitda Margin adjusted also for subsidy deferral impact
~4% from convergence
~1p.p. from Low-ARPU clients approach
BrGaap
CAGR TIM (06-09)
CAGR competitors (06-09)
~7% 10.8
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
Mobile leadership: key initiatives of the end-to-end approach focus on 2007
Caring Sales Offer
Business
Post-paid
Improvement of data solutionsMulti-regional/ customized bundling
Improve segmentation: from terminals to tariff plansVAS innovation
On-net community plansChip only
Dedicated BU for LA/Top SME
Zero subsidyChannel mix optimization (e.g. newsstands)
Premium caring (one-to-one) for VIP clients
Alternative channel approach (e.g. web, IVR, SMS)
Pre-paid
ConsumerSubsidies in accordance to offer/customer valueChannel mix optimization (e.g. increase of telesales)
Dedicated people/ skills
New sales opportunities (e.g. inbound VAS up-sell)
Offer/promotion customization
Value/revenue driven commissioning
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
Mobile leadership: operational efficiency (fixed costs)
Commercial fixed costs
IndustrialOPEX
G&A
HR
Improve effectiveness of call centre traffic management (Pre-routing) New contract models with 3rd parties call centresContinuing optimization of advertising expenditure
Leverage TIM Brasil existing IP networkUse of alternative technology for BTS connectionSelective IT outsourcing (e.g. data centre, application management)
Rigorous control of non-productive activitiesPositive impact of group restructuring
Limited headcount growth, focused on commercial activitiesProgressive optimization of regional operations
Key initiatives Opportunity (07-09)
32%
33%
11%
19%
% of Fixed Costs (FY06)
~3% reduction of cost per client per year
~20% reduction of cost per minute in the period
~1p.p. reduction of G&A/ net revenues percentage
~18% increase in net revenues/employee
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
Low-ARPU clients: increasing need for a new business model
New business models characterized by:Lower air-time prices (leveraging on price/volume elasticity)Lower denomination vouchersUse of extensive, indirect distribution channelsIncrease of electronic caring…
Mobile market worldwide evolution ARPU vs. EBITDA for selected operators
Emerging markets
Developed countries0,3
1,2
2,6
4,0
2,91,70,6
1,1
0,9
0,60,1
0,2
EBIT
DA
Mar
gin
(%)
% of net additions (06E-10E)
86%
14%
Subscribers, bln
Source: Merril Lynch Wireless Matrix (2007), Pyramid
SMART - PhilippinesSonatel
Mobilink PakistanTurkcellMTS
Ukraine
China MobileMTSRussia
0 10 20 30 40 50Monthly ARPU (US$)
1998 2002 2006E 2010E0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
Our convergence approach: matching different demands with a portfolio of technologies
Residential
LA
SME
High speed dedicated data connection (>10Mbps)100% guaranteed bandwidthLarge number of simultaneous usersHigh customization
Internet connection between 512Kbps and 8Mbps*Cost optimized QoSMedium-low interest of intra-group communicationLimited/affordable customization
TIM technologies/offerData VoiceDedicated linksWiMaxHSPA (in mobility)
PABX Hosting/ ManagementIP Solutions
HomeZone/ GSM
WiMaxHSPAEDGE
Brazilian demand characteristics
Internet connection between 64Kbps and 2Mbps*Low QoSStandard voice telephony (fixed and mobile) with no customization
* Nominal speed connection
WiMaxHSPA
IP SolutionsOffice Zone/ GSM
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
CAPEX evolution breakdown
Leveling-off network CAPEX (excluding licenses and convergence plan)
Shift of investments:From roll out to qualityFrom 2G to 3G
BrGaap, R$ Bln
2.6 ~ 5.7
30% 16% 14%
1.6
Network
CAPEX/Net Revenues
CommercialAdministrative
100%=
IT
62% 52%60%
21%
22%
23%
12% 20% 15%2%5% 2%
2005 2006 2007-2009
26%
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
TIM Participações Targets (BrGaap)
* Adjusted eliminating subsidy deferral impact ** Includes licences acquisition (3G, Wi-Max)
Total Net Revenues Growth
EBITDA margin
Customer Portfolio (Mln SIM)
CAPEX (Bln Reais)
Op. Free Cash Flow (mln €)
Mkt Share TIM on SIM
20.9 %
24.6 %
1.6 > 2** ~ 5.7**(Cum. ’07-09)
Positive from IIIQ ‘06
Break even(yearly base)
> 17% on Rev.(Year 2009)
2007Targets
2009Targets
2006 Actual
> 10%14.2%
~ 10%
(CAGR ’06-’09)
Adjusted considering Bill&Keep elimination starting from January 1st 2005
21.5%*> 23% > 28%
25.4 ~ 29 > 33
25.4% ~ 26% ~ 27%
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
Agenda
2006 results highlights
The Brazilian market context
2007-09 Plan overview
Summary
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TIM BRASIL
MARIO CESAR ARAUJO
Summary Achieved leadership in service revenues and profitability in 2006
Profitable growth over the next three years to be accomplished by:Consolidating our mobile leadership (focus an high-end customers) and pursuing operational efficiency
Developing a new approach to guarantee profitability of low-ARPU clients
Developing convergent solutions to defend our mobile leadership and capture new revenue streams