timingresearch crowd forecast newsletter (beta) week 130...

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter (Beta)Week 130 – 03/20/16 Report

Open-ended responses for Questions #1, #4, and #5 start on page 3.

Question #2. Based on any technical or fundamental indicators you want to use, would you predict that the S&P500 index will move higher or lower from Monday's open to Friday's close (March 21st to March 25th)?

Higher: 52.7%Lower: 47.3%

Question #3. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week's market move.

Average of All Responses: 69.1%Average For "Higher" Responses: 69.4%Average For "Lower" Responses: 68.9%

Responses Submitted This Week: 75

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: NONE (50/50)This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week's sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week's majority sentiment was Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 63% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended up 1.50% for the week. This week's majority sentiment is Higher (with a less than 10% difference) and with a higher average confidence on the bullish side. Similar conditions have been observed 12 times in the 130 weeks (2.5 years) since the start of this project with the majority sentiment being correct exactly 50% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of 0.57% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is not making a prediction this week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):TimingResearch.com/rawdata.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, "Date" field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

All-Time Correct Percentage: 50.4%52-Week Correct Percentage: 54.9%12-Week Correct Percentage: 63.6%

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reportsRaw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdataCurrent Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurveyAny feedback email: [email protected]



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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous responders tothis survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read and are listed in order of submission. Some useless/irrelevant responses (e.g. "none") have been omitted. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/rawdata.

Question #1. What developing events (technical or fundamental) will you be watching out for during the trading week of March 21st to March 25th that might have a positive or negative impact on the S&P500 and other US markets?

• Oil prices, weekly technical charts.• Oil • cycles• % Rates• webinars• SPY resistance• Tech• Price action.• Dow and S&P downtrend line resistance.• mid east- china• If 2050 resistance holds or breaks• Press cant be relied on anymore to give honest reporting. I really don't know of anything.• oil price• Full Moon Lunar Eclipse on the 23rd• price of oil• Oil, dollar, volume, momentum. Housing, durable goods, manuf reports.• Technical analyse & VSA• Gold and stocks bounced• Taking out of recent highs• Resistance and support levels• Falling Knife will it get sharpened VRX, SOMEHOW NKE ALWAYS MAKES ME $ ON

EARNINGS BUT RIGHT NOW YOU KNOW THEY WILL DO GOOD BUT AFTER IF IT JUMPS HOW FAR CAN OR WILL IT FALL BACK. OBAMA GIVES HIMSELF 18% RAISE I AM BETTING THAT TRUMP WILL WORK FOR FREE ,20TRILLION DEBT + WATCH JAPAN BONDS!

• oil, gas & US currency• Stochastics• The aud usa dollars company profits and turnover. Easter next week. • interest rates• Currency devaluations, interest rates• Positive impact of S&P 500• Track dovish Fed• VIX.• earnings• oil, china





• Markets are due for a bout of profit taking• Watching the Monday morning opening to guess where the market may be headed in the

short term.• dollar rise• Jobless Claims,News.• Response to setting new yearly highs - follow through or collapse?• Always watching FED reports, any change to interest rates, news out of oil producing

regions and any news on terrorists activity that may cause even short term market moves.• Price of Oil only since sentiment and cycles and overhead supply have failed to stop

momentum.• Oil, Gold• Any central bank noise• Market's ability to overcome resistance here. I sense it will. The biggest obstetrical is

foreign markets and they appear to be on the mend now. We are now entering a positive period foe U. S. markets being April and on coming of spring. Also, selling in May will not work this year in my opinion because it probably would have already happened in the bad first quarter we have experienced.

• Oil• watching $ticks• price action (technicals) - below 2015 would indicate lower; next big area is 1960 and the

biggest support 1810/00 below which we're going into 1700s & probably 1600s (for deepest bear market downleg); upper resistance areas 2055.50, 2080, 2140

• oil price • 200 day MA• Overbought• I am looking for stock markets to stay above their respective 200 day moving averages• Trend, • The market is range bound (large one). Seeing how it acts as it gets nearer to top of the

range here. • none




Question #4. What technical or fundamental indicators are the most influential for your trading or investing?

• TTM Squeeze, +-DMI, modified MACD, and MA channels, viewed on weekly and daily charts

• Volatility • Slow Stoh. MACD, and Momentum• data, graphs and commentatories• Stochastics• Indicators, none. Only observance.• Trend and volume.• candlesticks• PE, PEG, Sectors• Moving averages, volume and support/resistance• Earnings growth, rising stochastics, 20,50, and 200da moving avgs.• RSI• Sentiment• spy chart 50 day sma• Trend direction, volume and momentum, price.• COMBINATION OF MA, ADX, FRACTALS & FIBO• ichimodo• Protecting my wealth through trading• overbought indicators• Persons pivots• Resistance and support levels• Political unrest,How many Americans going to vacation to Europe this summer will hurt

airlines?• Market fundamentals• Combination RSI Williams Momentum ADX• Unemployment. Budget news.company news profit s.coal prices and gold prices. • interest rates• Support and resistance levels and Fibinoccie retracements• Interview with CEO• Bollinger squeeze• Pivot points.• Williams chart• both• Stochastic RSI • trend direction• us dollar• MACD, Williams %R, money flow, a-d line,uv-dv line.• EMA's,RSI,Patterns and Candlesticks.• While I am NOT a technical trader I do pay attention to the things I know may institutional

traders use like 20, 50 and 200 days moving average crossovers.• flipped a coin




• All have failed so far so just buy low and sell high. Sell puts on things you want to own and wait for more predictable times and listen to ever forecasters.

• Price action.• cycles• Momentum• Moving above 50 & 100 EMA's More and more stocks moving stronger above moving

averages. Good enough earnings to keep companies positive and increasing jobs markets.• MarketWebs • $ticks and volume• price action (support resistance & vol profile); Gann, reversion to mean, options pricing (vol)

& probabilities • macd, options/stocks volume• RSI and slow Stochastic• ADX• moving averages; momentum indicators PLUS fundamentals• fundamentals stocks are not a buy above 6 times earnings• Candlestick




Question #5: Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

Thank you for all the feedback, feel free to contact us at any time with any other questions or comments.

• Keep up the good work• Markets will rise front half of week then turn down back half into next week then turn back

up one more time before big downward slide.• We don't know for sure who's planting all the protestors @Trump rallies, but its ruining the

election system. • Fed needs to raise to put a lid on debt bubble.• PASSING TREND!• None• Canada befriends Obama but OIL IS STILL HIS ENEMY! JUMP IN OIL IS GETTING

CLOSE!• Hop Goldman Sachs will lead this• No answer until Tuesday for Questions 2 and 3• Yay, seasonally positive Easter !• My thinking is we are bumping up against resistance and the market may well stall here. My

confidence of a further advance is low until the market take a breather. • Get ready for a Nero-like president no matter who gets elected. America's worst days are

ahead. • I think we go sideways to higher near term but we can re-visit our February lows later in

this year, possibly end of June July period. • we may go higher to 2075 but I have to say flat or lower next week.• fed will not raise rates anytime soon, so the markets will not rollover to where they should

be. we know that the markets are hanging by a thread, but this thread has lasted 7 years now due to QE. my money is cash except for < 1k in otm s&p puts 3-6 months out

• Please ask: What is your favorite trade management tip?• Look for DJI to hit near 18,000 this week



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Standing Predictions

Below are some of the one-time prediction-type questions asked in previous weeks that have not been finalized yet or have been finalized recently. Suggest a future question here.

Week 128, 03/06/16 Report - The S&P500 and other major indexes moved into correction territoryearlier this year before rallying over the last few weeks. Do you think we are safely beyond the correction?Yes: 20.0%No: 80.0%

Week 127, 02/28/16 Report - Do you think the United States economy will be in a recession before the end of 2016?Yes: 49.3%No: 50.7%

Week 121, 01/17/16 Report - What do you think is the lowest price that Crude Oil will trade at during 2016? (it is currently around $30)Average Of All Numerical Answers: $22.22

Week 111, 11/08/15 Report - Which Republican Party presidential candidate do you think will end up with the nomination?44.83% - Trump24.14% - Rubio10.34% - Cruz6.90% - Bush6.90% - Carson6.90% - Kasich

Week 111, 11/08/15 Report - Which Democratic Party presidential candidate do you think will end up with the nomination?100.00% - Clinton

Week 52, 09/21/14 Report - If Hilary Clinton runs for president in 2016, do you think she will win?Yes - 41.5%No - 58.5%



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timingresearch crowd forecast newsletter (beta) week 130...

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