11/25/20085:05 PM Pacific

This is 233 minute chart of the S&P E-minis assumes that we completed wave 3. It wins the most probable award between the two counts I have discussed since last evening, based on post market analysis this afternoon. The green arrow points out that wave (5) of 3, was a .382 extension of waves (1) to (3), where I was projecting a .618 extension, to align with the 1.618 extension of wave 1, as the target for wave 3. That is the most common extension for a 3rd wave in a motive wave set (5-3-5-3-5). It is less common, but not uncommon, for the entire wave set to complete in a 1.618 extension of wave 1. The red arrow shows that in this scenario there is no longer a Fibonacci confluence for the completion target. Note the .382 extension is below the 1.618 target and the .618 extension is well above it. The 1.618 line is dominant, especially near the 200 period ma which tends to pull price toward it once it enters its orbit.

11/25/20085:05 PM Pacific

The retracement down from 3 (labeled 4) was greater than .250 and less than .382. The second red bar is a 1:1 ratio of the first. The orange arrow points out that from the top of the green bar to .382 is a 1:1 ratio of the entire move down from 3-4 and would be a confluence with the .382 retracement level. The retracement doesn’t have to extend and go there, and my bias is that it won’t, but if price does correct below 845 after hours, it is the most likely target. This 5 minute chart shows the move up from 833 that started at 11:00am. Look at the ratios of the move. The move up is a probable motive wave which lessens the likelihood of the extended retracement scenario discussed in the last paragraph. However, the .618 retracement level on this chart (845) is probable. Note that in this 5 wave set the 3rd wave was a 1.618 extension, and the 5th wave was a .618 extension.

If price corrects lower than 825, caution is advised. Adopting this (3 waves completed) count as the primary thesis implies that technically the upside could be over. Corrections come in 3 waves, motive/impulse waves come in sets of 5. If we can put in the 5th wave, we will go higher.

11/25/20085:05 PM Pacific

My bias is for higher prices. Higher prices are supported by the probable counts at the higher level of degree discussed in the weekend edition. They are also supported by the 5 minute chart above. TMD/DW The market detective provides personal market opinion based on sound technical analysis and research. However, no warranty is given or implied as to its true reliability. The market detective will make errors and mistakes. The market detective is not an investment adviser and is not making recommendations to buy, sell, or place orders relating to the futures contracts, ETFs, or stocks that he writes about. The responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this service are solely that of the individual subscriber. The individual must fully research and make his/her own decisions before acting on any information provided by the market detective. The market detective assumes no responsibility for subscriber investment or trading results.