12/21/20089:51 PM Pacific

Over the last several sessions of price action my bias has shifted to a corrective wave structure off the low, probably a zigzag combination. 873/874 was not broken, so a motive wave is still possible, but ratios no longer favor it. If it happens, you have the script. After studying and reviewing multiple timeframes, this is my preferred thesis for short-term price action. It is a double zigzag pattern. This pattern works with a pivot up from either 874, or another wave down to 860 as shown on the chart. My bias is for a move down to 860 and then a turn back up. This is a fairly high level chart, 610 minutes.

The 233 minute chart below shows a close-up of the most immediate price action. 860 is a Fibonacci confluence of the .618 retracement of the move up from 828 to A, and a 1:1 ratio Fibonacci extension of the move down from A- a. It is also a trend line intersection. Notice that the .500 retracement level also coincides with a trend line intersection further out in time if price doesn’t take the most direct path to the 3rd Fan line and meanders sideways along the orange descending trend line instead. That price shows as 869 on this

12/21/20089:51 PM Pacific

chart but is more likely a re-test of 874/5.

So, a zigzag combination is the most probable pattern up from the low. There is another strong support level (860) between 874 and 830, and I believe that it is the most probable pivot to go higher. A re-test of 874 is the alternate. Caveats: Price could extend to 894 again before heading lower. If price goes above 904 without going lower, then Friday’s forecast of 960 by way of 929 (the extension up from 874), moves back in vogue and is most probable. That is also the probable price path of an 874 re-test. If price breaks below 857-860, then 830 is still the next target for a bounce or turn. TMD/DW The market detective provides personal market opinion based on sound technical analysis and research. However, no warranty is given or implied as to its true reliability. The market detective will make errors and mistakes. The market detective is not an investment adviser and is not making recommendations to buy, sell, or place orders relating to the futures contracts, ETFs, or stocks that he writes about. The responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this service are solely that of the individual subscriber. The individual must fully research and make his/her own decisions before acting on any information provided by the market detective. The market detective assumes no responsibility for subscriber investment or trading results.