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5th July, Buntine Hall, 8.30 am—4.15 pm

Special Guest Speaker Kate Lamont

• “Getting the most out of your fertiliser decisions”. Matt Applebee, CSBP • “Australian rural leadership program”. Louise House, Local Grower Experience • “China’s effect on global markets”. Tim Hunt, Rabobank • “What Asia Wants—QA?” Shelley Birch, Local Grower Experience • “What does the new budget mean for you?” John Thompson, RSM Bird Cameron • “Biodiesel at home”. Bev Logue, RIRDC WA Women’s Award • “Getting this Generation X, Y, Z thing!” Helen McAuliffe, Jabiru Human Resources • “Giving where people live”. Kathryn Sydney Smith, CEO WA Community Foundation • “Building a business with balls”. Dana Steddy, Miracle Wash Laundry Balls COST: Members $25 Non Members $50

Volume 9 Issue 4��

LIEBE GROUP P.O Box 22 BUNTINE 6613.

Ph: (08) 9664 2030 Fax: (08) 9664 2040 Website: www.liebegroup.asn.au

Brianna Peake - Executive Officer – [email protected] Jill McGregor - Administration Manager – liebe.jill (as above) Emma Glasfurd—Project Coordinator—liebe.emma Jade Bagley—R&D Coordinator—liebe.jade Merrie Carlshausen - Sponsorship Coordinator - liebe.merrie

June 2006

Gold Sponsors:

AWB

Landmark

CBH Group of

Companies

Planfarm

COGGO

Silver Sponsors:

Spray.Seed from

Syngenta

RSM Bird Cameron

Jolly & Sons/ T & H Walton

Allan’s Rural

Supplies

Bronze Sponsor:

Agrimaster

Pizza n Port Night 3

Succession Planning Workshop 5

A New Market for Grains 5

2006 Trials & Demonstration List 6

Glyphosate Resistance 9

Saltbush—use it or lose it 10

Cereal Diseases in 2006 11

Is Root Rot of Concern to your farming business?

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The Liebe Group acknowledge and thank our Diamond Sponsors: ��

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To:

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 2

20th June Evergreen Alternative Pastures Field Walk 5th July Liebe Women’s Field Day Buntine Hall 6th & 7th July Management Skills Development Course Dalwallinu Bowling Club 10th July Main Trial Site Field Walk—4 pm Ian & Jeanette Syme’s 10th July Pizza n port night—6 pm General Meeting—7 pm Buntine Bowling Club 25th July Precision Agriculture Workshop Buntine Bowling Club 1st August Succession Planning Workshop, 9 am - 4.30 pm

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16th May 2006

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1. Acceptance of Soil Health Project progress report. 2. Peter Newman’s ‘Case Studies of Integrated Weed Management’ book available in the

Liebe Group office. 3. Amends to Objective 5 were accepted into the Liebe Group Strategic Plan. 4. A minimum number of 10 members is required for the South East Asia Tour to proceed. 5. The following actions have been developed to encourage trials at the Liebe Main Trial Site:

1. A prospectus of our 2 trial sites to be made available to researches in November. 2. The Issue to be run past the GGA in case other grower groups are facing the same problem. 3. The Liebe Group will endeavour to develop collaborative projects. 6. Strategies for the 5 year cycle have been developed. The Management Committee identified threats to the group during the staffing changes and the cyclical stage that the group is in. There is a commitment to support the group through increasing their involvement during this time. Management Committee are encouraged to invite a visitor to the port & pizza night on the 10th July.

If any member would like a full copy of the minutes please contact the office.

2006 Liebe General Meeting Dates 10th July, 14th August,

11th September, 9th October, 11th December

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 3

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The Liebe Group would like to welcome Sophie Keogh who has been employed as the new Administration Manager. Sophie grew up in the Murchison region on her family’s sheep station. She has completed a degree in Communications with a double major in Advertising and Public Relations in 2004. She went on to work at an advertising agency in Perth for over a year where she developed skills that will greatly assist with her new position with the Liebe Group. She is looking forward to becoming a part of the local communities and her role with in the group. She hopes to get to meet a lot of you soon, so please feel free to drop in and say hello!

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In years like this when the season is late and dry it is important our communities keep a positive outlook and stick together! So …………………………………………………………… The Liebe Group would like to invite you to come and enjoy a BEER, SNAG AND MEET OUR NEW EMPLOYEE- SOPHIE at the Buntine Club this Thursday (15th) from 4.30 pm onwards.

All community welcome.

Please come along to our field walk at the Main Trial Site on the 10th of July.

The walk will run from 4 – 6 pm and will give us an opportunity to discuss the format of the Spring Field Day.

This will be followed by Pizza n Port back at the Buntine Bowling Club.

You can also take part in our Liebe General Meeting at 7 pm if you wish. Please give Jade or Sophie a call on 9664 2030 if you can attend.

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The Liebe Group is holding a precision agriculture (PA) workshop. The workshop is going to be run in conjunction with the CSIRO precision agriculture team. The workshop aims to work with Liebe farmers who are looking to apply variable rate technology into their farms and also those who are considering whether or not to introduce the technology. There are limited positions for this workshop. It will be a fantastic opportunity for any growers thinking about getting into variable rate technology and also those who have started using the technology in their system to learn more about the benefits of utilising spatial information to manage paddock variability. There will be continued support from the Liebe Group and CSIRO following the workshop for help with the technology or questions surrounding getting into PA on individual properties. WHERE: Buntine Club WHEN: Tuesday 25th July 2006 For more information or to book a position please call Emma at the office

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 4

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The Liebe Group have been fortunate enough in receiving funding from GRDC for a portion of the tour. Unfortunately due to lack of numbers (though plenty of interest) we are deferring the tour until 2007. We encourage members to think about it and indicate their interest as it is going to be a great ex-perience. Members who have already registered for the tour will be given preference in 2007.

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6th & 7th July Dalwallinu Bowling Club

Helen McAuliffe, Jabiru Human Resources, will be conducting this 2 day course. Helen is a speaker at the Women’s Field Day and is staying on to conduct this fantastic training opportunity. The Management Skills Development course is a training course for frontline managers, supervisors, team leaders and employees. Course content will include: • Understanding change in the workplace • Knowing and understanding personality preferences • Leading and influencing others • Resolving conflict • Communicating for results • Implementing the Staff Management System—recruitment, selection. Induction and performance management The course fee of $850 (GST included) covers tuition, a comprehensive set of training notes and course meals. Companies and families nominating 3 or more persons will be entitled to a $50 discount for the third and any subsequent registrations. Eligible primary producers will receive a 50% subsidy from Farmbis for the cost of the course. Jabiru Human Resource Services believe that team work and the harnessing of everyone’s full potential is at the heart of a successful business. Major clients of Jabiru have included Heytesbury Beef and Paspaley Pearls. To register please call Sophie at the office. Please note this course will be promoted outside the Liebe membership so early registration is recommended as there is a limit of 20 persons.

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Georgie Gardner, Perennials Project Officer of Shire of Victoria Plains has a produced to book called ’Perennial Pastures, What have we learnt?’ This book is made up of farm based case studies that include obstacles and successes from past attempts to establish perennial pastures in the Northern Agricultural Region and recommendations for future plantings. Any members are welcome to obtain a copy from the Liebe office.

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 5

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On Tuesday August 1st, 9 am — 4.30 pm at the Wubin Combined Sports Club, Rabobank are holding a Succession Planning Workshop. Facilitator Kim Lee from Rabobank will be discussing the concept of succession planning (what, who, why, how) concept of stakeholders, complexity, usual process and potential outcomes. Accountant John Thomson from RSM Bird Cameron will be there to discuss financial considerations with respect to succession planning. And a Solicitor from Rural Solicitors of WA will be discussing legal considerations in respect to discussion planning. Register for the workshop by calling the Liebe Group office, more details will be provided in the July newsletter.

Not often is a mature industry, like the Australian grain industry, presented with a significant opportunity and growing source of demand. However, in recent years, the growth in demand for feed grains has emerged. The largest user of feed in Australia is the east coast based cattle feedlot sector with the turnoff of cattle on feed in Australia reaching a record of 2.6 million head in 2005. In addition, supplementary feeding in the dairy industry has grown considerably in recent years, as the industry intensifies following deregulation. Global animal protein production is also forecast to increase and in turn, the production of feed grains and compound feed must follow suit as much of this animal protein will be fed on grain rather than grass. Keeping pace with this demand presents a challenge for the Australian grain sector because despite a decade of sizeable growth in grain production, several studies by ABARE suggest that there is a regularly occurring deficit of grain for feed on the eastern sea board of Australia. Further growth in feed grain supply will come, as in the past, through continued increases in productivity. While any future increases in area devoted to feed grains will depend upon the price signals growers receive: if feed grains perform financially on a returns per hectare basis, then they will be planted. Investment into research and development to improve the return per hectare of feed grains is essential to reduce the volatility of supply in the long term. For grain growers, the feed grain industry has the potential to provide an alternative to more traditional export marketing channels and to provide an additional demand source in an otherwise mature domestic marketplace.

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Ingrid Richardson, Food & Agribusiness Research Analyst, Rabobank

Disclaimer: All information in this newsletter is believed to be

true and correct. No responsibility is taken for incorrect information printed.

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 6

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FARMER LOCATION TYPE TITLE COMPANY CONTACT

WHEAT

Ian Syme MTS Buntine Trial Wheat varieties x TOS DAFWA Christine Zaicou-Kunesch

Ian Syme MTS Buntine Trial Varieties x N application on fallow

AWB Landmark

Simon Crane

Ian Syme MTS Buntine Trial Varieties x N application on 3 yrs wheat

AWB Landmark

Simon Crane

Ian Syme MTS Buntine Trial Wheat NVT Agritech Darren Chitty

Ian Syme MTS Buntine Trial Wheat Practice for Profit Agritech Liebe Group

Darren Chitty

Ian Syme MTS Buntine Trial Root growth in hardpan vs non hardpan

UWA Tina Acuna Len Wade

Ian Syme MTS Buntine Trial Pre-emergent herbicide Syngenta Simon Kerin Pippa Michael

Gary Butcher Pithara Trial Wheat NVT Agritech Darren Chitty

Peter Bryant Maya East Trial Wheat NVT Agritech Darren Chitty

Neil Pearse Miling Trial Wheat NVT Agritech Darren Chitty

Steve Bryant Buntine West Trial Wheat Variety Trial Agrisearch Melissa Morgan

BARLEY

Ian Syme MTS Buntine Trial Barley Practice for Profit Agritech Liebe Group

Darren Chitty

Tony White Miling Demonstration Disease management Liebe Group Jade Bagley

LUPINS

Ian Syme MTS Buntine

Trial TOS x weed management DAFWA Martin Harries

Ian Syme Buntine Demonstration Lupins w/o ALOSCA Liebe Group Jade Bagley

Paul and Daniel Bryant

Buntine West Demonstration Herbicide tolerance of lupins

Liebe Group Jade Bagley

Bob Nixon Kalannie Trial Lupin Stage 4 DAFWA WHRS

Jenny Garlinge Chris Matthews

PASTURE


Trial Pasture growth vs variety Elders Liebe Group

Dave Scholz

Doug Cail Kalannie Demonstration Pastures on acidic soils Liebe Group Jade Bagley

Ross Fitzsimons

Buntine Trial Perennial Grass DAFWA + Grain & Graze

Geoff Moore

Stuart McAlpine LTRS Trial Native perennial legume, Cullen

CRC for Plant Based Manage-ment of Dryland Salinity

Richard Bennett

Ross Fitzsimons

Buntine West Trial Perennial Grass DAFWA + Grain & Graze

Geoff Moore

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 7

PULSES

Rob Nankivell Maya East Demonstration Field pea varieties Liebe Group Jade Bagley

Rob Nankivell Wubin West Demonstration Chickpea varieties Liebe Group Jade Bagley

LIVESTOCK

Gary Butcher Pithara Demonstration Livestock grazing records

Liebe Group Brianna Peake

Colin McGregor Maya East Demonstration Livestock grazing records


Tony White Miling Demonstration Livestock grazing records


Ross Fitzsimons Buntine Demonstration Livestock grazing records


Keith Carter Wubin East Demonstration Livestock grazing records


OTHER

Peter Bryant Maya Demonstration Yield Prophet and PYCAL


Harry Hyde Dalwallinu Demonstration Yield Prophet and PYCAL


Gary Butcher Pithara Demonstration Yield Prophet and PYCAL


Ian Syme Buntine Demonstration Yield Prophet and PYCAL


Mike Dodd Buntine West Trial Oil Mallee trial CALM/DAFWA Dan Huxtable

Brian McAlpine Buntine Demonstration YP and variable rate fertiliser

CSIRO Mike Robertson

Stuart McAlpine Buntine Demonstration YP and variable rate fertiliser

CSIRO Mike Robertson

Tony White Miling Demonstration Saltland site with salt-bush, saltwater couch, perennial grasses and Safeguard ryegrass

SGSL/Liebe Brianna Peake

Keith Carter East Wubin Demonstration Sub-tropical perennial grasses mixed with annual legumes. Saltbush inter-row

SGSL/Liebe Brianna Peake

Bernie Driscoll Ballidu Demonstration Saltland site with lucerne, saltbush, safeguard ryegrass

SGSL/Ballidu Wool-pro

Brianna Peake

Keith Carter Wubin Demonstration E/W compared to N/S sowing directions

Liebe Group Emma Glasfurd

CANOLA


Trial Canola NVT Agritech Darren Chitty


Trial Seed dressing CBWA Milton Sanders

Rod Birch Coorow Demonstration Canola varieties CBWA & Liebe Group

Milton Sanders & Jade Bagley

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 8

Mike Dodd Buntine Trial Canola variety trial CBWA Milton Sanders

FERTILISER


Trial Tactical N CSBP Erin Cahill


Demo Liquid versus granular P CSBP Erin Cahill

Anton Wilson Wubin Demonstration Black Urea Whiteurea Liebe Group Jade Bagley

Rowan McCreery Kalannie Trial Fertiliser placement Summit Andrew Donkin

SOIL HEALTH

Stuart McAlpine LTRS Buntine Trial Biology trial – Soil Health Project


Grant Hudson Goodlands Demonstration Skip row Vs conventional seeding


Grant Hudson Goodlands Demonstration Incorporated Lime Vs no incorporation.


Rowan McCreery Kalannie Demonstration Lime Vs Gypsum/Dolomite Liebe Group Emma Glasfurd

Brian McAlpine Buntine Demonstration Deep ripping and Deep Banding Lime—Yield Results


Stuart McAlpine LTRS Buntine Trial Inter-row deep ripping DAFWA Liebe Group

Paul Blackwell

Stuart McAlpine LTRS Buntine Trial Rotation trial CSIRO Steve Milroy

Ian Bowman Carnamah Demonstration Long term liming trial—Yield Results

Liebe Group DAFWA

Emma Glasfurd

Peter Bryant Latham Demonstration Deep ripping and deep placement of Lime—Yield Results


Stuart McAlpine Buntine West Demonstration Limesand vs G-lime Liebe Group Jade Bagley

If you have a trial or demonstration on your property that is not included in this list, please call Jade at the office.

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Good agronomic information can be received by email throughout the season from Pestfax and E-weed. If you would like to subscribe to receive this information just email: Pestfax ([email protected]) E-weed ([email protected])

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 9

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Do you use glyphosate? Well if you want to keep using it you must use it responsibly, otherwise weeds will become resistant. That is the message from the national Glyphosate Sustainability Working Group (GSWG). Consisting of researchers and industry representatives and with support from CropLife Australia and GRDC; the GSWG is charged with the task of minimising the development of glyphosate resistance and maximising the effective life of this key herbicide.

Ten new populations of glyphosate resistant annual ryegrass have been recorded in 2006, more than twice the number reported all of last year. Three of these new populations were identified on fencelines in SA and Victoria. GSWG reports that the incidence of glyphosate resistance in annual ryegrass is still proportionally low but such jumps in the number of resistant populations should serve as a reminder for growers and remind them to adopt practices that minimise the risk of developing glyphosate resistance.

In broadacre agriculture, glyphosate resistance in annual ryegrass on fencelines is a particular problem as the resistance can be moved into the cropped area by farm equipment. Farm hygiene to prevent the movement of resistance seeds will be important.

Since glyphosate was first released in 1974, researchers have been searching for molecules with similar properties. Every year, the major crop protection companies involved in research and development (Bayer, Syngenta, Monsanto, Dupont, Dow and BASF) each screen approximately 0.5 million compounds in the hope of identifying potential new pesticides. Based on the low number of products with unique characteristics released in recent years, it can be deduced that not many unique molecules or compounds with all the attributes of crop safety, efficacy, environmental and human safety are being found. Of those found, not all are suited to Australian weeds or our broadacre crop production.

In short, there currently is no glyphosate equivalent in development, so growers must use glyphosate responsibly if they are to prevent the development of glyphosate resistant weeds, especially annual ryegrass, on their property.

Responsible use includes diversifying the range of herbicides applied as well as using physical rather than chemical control methods such as weed seed catchers at harvest. The strategic use of alternative knockdown groups, that is knockdowns herbicides that are not a Group M, effective in-crop weed control, use of alternative herbicide groups or tillage for inter-row or fallow weed control, crop topping using alternative herbicide groups and using the double knock, are all techniques that help lower the risk of herbicide resistance.

The double knock refers to an application of glyphosate followed by application of a paraquat-based product. This strategy relies on paraquat controlling the rare glyphosate resistant survivors. These glyphosate survivors are not likely to be controlled by low rates of paraquat nor are large ryegrass plants likely to be controlled by paraquat. So the double knock strategy relies on both herbicides being applied at rates appropriate for the ryegrass plants being targeted.

With assistance for the CRC for Weed Management the GSWG has developed a website (www.weeds.crc.org.au/glyphosate/) containing useful information and resources about weed management techniques to minimise the risk of glyphosate resistance. There are answers to frequently asked questions, fact sheets, information on identification and testing for glyphosate resistance and a database of glyphosate resistant weed populations. Growers and agronomists are encouraged to visit the site and use and share the information as widely as possible. For more information please contact Rick Llewellyn, Chairman of the ASWG [email protected]

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 10

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It is years like this with lack of good and even opening rains that saltbush can be an extremely important feed source. Now is the time of year that you may be planning Saltbush plantings. A recent study detailed below may provide you with extra information required. “Use it or lose it” is the message scientists have for farmers who graze their livestock on saltbush on saline land. A joint study by CSIRO Livestock Industries and the CRC for Plant-based Management of Dryland Salinity found that saltbushes that were not grazed in autumn produced volumes of edible biomass the following year similar to saltbushes that were heavily grazed. CSIRO Livestock Industries researchers Dr Hayley Norman and Technical Officer Matt Wilmot, made the discovery while investigating the growth rates of edible biomass in saltbush after heavy grazing. They found there was little benefit in leaving ‘old man’ saltbushes ungrazed as the plants often lost their leaves anyway and tended to grow more slowly than grazed bushes, as sown by Figure 1. Old man saltbush (Atriplex nummularia) is grown on saline soils in southern Australia as a fodder for livestock. The shrubs are generally grazed during the autumn feed gap. However some farmers do not graze the shrubs each season believing it is better to save the feed for less productive seasons. “Some farmers worry that they will overgraze their saltbush,” Mr Wilmot said. “What we have found is that if saltbush is heavily grazed for a short period of time, the bushes recover quite nicely. “It’s a simple message: use it or lose it.” Dr Norman said saltbush was rich in vitamin E and provided a moderate quality feed source particularly during autumn when pastures are of poor quality. “This study is exciting in that it demonstrates the ability of saltbushes to recover from grazing to almost bare sticks,” Dr Norman said. “There appears to be little advantage in deferred grazing between years.” But she cautioned that the study had so far only investigated the impact of crash grazing over four years. The longer term impact on repeated short-term heavy grazing was yet to be determined. The study was based on trials conducted on saline land near Tammin, 180 kilometres east of Perth, as part of a Sustainable Grazing on Saline Lands project, funded by Land, Water and Wool – an initiative of Australian Wool Innovation and Land and Water Australia. The study is part of a larger research effort aimed at developing improved varieties of saltbush for fodder.

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 11

Figure 1: Edible dry matter on offer per saltbush shrub (mean ± SE) over a 2-year period, for un-grazed plants (�) and plants grazed during autumn (u). * indicates where P�0.01. For more information please contact Dr Hayley Norman, CSIRO Livestock Industries on 08 9333 6636 or 0409 296 311

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Geoff Thomas & Brenda Coutts, Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia

The 2006 growing season has already provided a number of disease issues for wheat growers to think about. Widespread summer rain resulted in significant areas of cereal regrowth increasing the risk of widespread early occurrence of rust diseases. At the same time the potentially damag-ing disease Wheat Streak Mosaic Virus (WSMV) was identified in Western Australia for the first time.

Rust Risk

As a result of widespread summer rain and large areas of green bridge regrowth the risk of cereal rust throughout most of the wheatbelt was rated as high early in the year.

In many areas the dry weather through April and May has killed off the green regrowth. Associ-ated with this has been delayed sowing in many areas further widening the gap between green bridge and emerging crops. Whilst some of the risk associated with the summer/autumn rain still exists, the dry conditions have reduced the impact of the green bridge and widespread early rust infections are now less likely.

Generally across the central and northern agricultural regions stripe rust risk has eased to moder-ate and stem and leaf rust risk to low. However local weather conditions, supporting green bridge survival and providing early sowing opportunities can still raise local rust risk.

Given the high risk early in the year, it remains very important that crops are monitored closely from early stem extension (Z31), as foliar fungicide applications may be required if rust infection does occur. This is especially important if growing stripe rust susceptible varieties such as Wes-tonia or Bonnie Rock.

Wheat Streak Mosaic Virus

WSMV is a disease which can cause significant yield losses and damages grain quality. It is seed borne in wheat and can be harboured in green bridge regrowth. It is spread between plants by

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 12

the wheat leaf curl mite. Surveys have shown that both the mite vector and the virus disease are present in WA. The disease is most damaging when infection occurs early in the life of the crop. Warm and wet conditions leading into the season, promote green regrowth and allow the mite population to build rapidly, spreading the virus from infected regrowth or from infected seedlings into early sown crops. Generally most of the medium and low rainfall areas of the WA wheatbelt do not regularly have seasons conducive to serious WSMV infection. Higher rainfall north and south coastal regions are at far greater risk.

The dry conditions during autumn of this season means that the risk of WSMV in the low and me-dium rainfall areas of the Northern Ag Region is very low. However, sowing WSMV-infected seed stocks can increase the risk of losses in all areas.

Other Diseases

Yellow spot and septoria nodorum blotch are stubble borne diseases and don’t rely on the green bridge to carry over from one season to the next. Crops at greatest risk are those sown into wheat stubble. Disease development is favoured by warm, wet weather. Generally they are more serious in longer wetter seasons and their impact can be less in later sown crops. Growers can manage these diseases through variety choice, crop rotation and fungicide treatment where nec-essary.

Regular updates of plant disease risk are located on the Department’s web site www.agric.wa.gov.au/cropdisease

Yield Prophet® is an on-line crop production model designed to provide grain growers with real-time information about the crop during growth. To assist in management decisions, growers enter inputs at any time during the season to generate reports of projected yield outcomes showing the impact of crop type and variety, sowing time, nitrogen fertiliser and irrigation. Yield Prophet ® does not generate recommendations or advice. Yield Prophet® uses the computer simulation model APSIM together with paddock specific soil, crop and climate data to generate information about the likely outcomes of farming decisions. As part of the Liebe Group Climate Risk Management Project several farmers trialed the use of Yield Prophet in the 2005 season. Again, in 2006 several growers will be looking at Yield Prophet including predictions of wheat yields at the Main Trial Site (Ian and Jeanette Syme’s farm, 4km south of Buntine). Soil, rainfall and crop data for the Wheat Practice for Profit trial has been entered into Yield Prophet. The tool enables the user to make pre-seeding predictions about potential yield. With most growers having approximately 50% or more of their programs in the ground but are pulling up due to the lack of soil moisture I thought it would be interesting to use yield prophet in it’s pre-dictive form and run through several sowing date scenarios for the Practice for Profit Trial at the Main Trial Site. Assumptions: Soil type: Sand over gravel N fertiliser: 40 kg/ha N (based on Practice for Profit District Treatment) Rainfall to the date of the 9th June

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Brianna Peake

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec GSR Total

88.5 5.5 3.5 28.5 25.5 0 54 151.5

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 13

Table 1: The predicted probability of achieving less than 1 t/ha or more than 2 t/ha and the pre-dicted median yield for Calingiri and Wyalkatchem wheat over three sowing dates at the Liebe Main Trial Site.

Comments: As it can been seen from the above table when the sowing date is pushed back one month from late May to late June the median yield potential for Calingiri decreases by 0.5 t/ha and for Wyalkatchem 0.6 t/ha. The probability of achieving under 1t/ha increases by 10% for both varie-ties and the probability of achieving over 2 t/ha decreases by 20% for Calingiri and 30% for Wyalkatchem.

Please note the model takes into account the 2006 growing season rainfall received to date and the stored soil moisture. It uses this and other input data to produce a probability curve of possi-ble yield outcomes. I have just used the median yield to demonstrate the loss in yield potential however it seems that the season is tracking well below an average year (see Figure 1) and the forecast from DAFWA is still for an average to below average rainfall year. Therefore the median yields (Decile 5) given in Table 1 are most likely not going to be indicative of this season.

Figure 1: The Main Trial Site cumulative 2006 growing season rainfall to date vs historical rainfall deciles 1, 5 and 9, with decile finishes 1,5 and 9. The first Climate Risk Bulletin will be produced after the 1st of July.

APSIM does not take into account weed competition, pest/disease pressure, pesticide damage, farmer error, or extreme events (such as extreme weather, flood and fire).

For more information about APSIM please look at www.apsim.info, or contact Brianna at the office.

Variety Sowing Date % chance of <1 t/ha Median Yield (Decile5)

Calingiri 27th May 10 2.0

10th June 20 1.7

24th June 20 1.5

27th May 5 2.5

10th June 10 2.1

24th June 15 1.9

Wyalkatchem

% chance of >2 t/ha

50

40

30

70

55

40

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 14

If you knew how well lupins would yield at or before seeding time would it make any difference to how you manage the crop? Would it be, for example, more important to know whether the likeli-hood of getting yields below 1 t/ha is very low, or whether there is a reasonable chance of getting over 2 t/ha? Is there any value in knowing whether the yield expectation suddenly becomes much better, or worse, during the growth of the crop? How late in the season is it before such in-formation is no longer valuable? We can now provide up-to-date yield forecasts as the season unfolds using computer-based models. In 2006 the Liebe Group and Department of Agriculture and Food have produced regu-lar predictions of lupin yields at Buntine using APSIM. The project is funded by GRDC. We used historical weather observations to simulate a lupin crop every year from 1930 (when rainfall observations began in Buntine) until 2005. This allowed us to calculate the probability of achieving various yields. Some assumptions were required, particularly on when to plant the crop. We chose to plant the first time after 21 April when 10 mm or more rain had fallen in the past three days. If this didn’t happen by 15 June we didn’t plant a crop. The simulations showed that, for Buntine the median yield for lupins is 1.08 t/ha (Figure 1). There is a 50% probability of the yield exceeding the median, and a 50% probability of it falling short, so the median falls in the middle of the most likely range of yields. Figure 1 also shows that histori-cally there is a 70% chance of getting at least 0.8 t/ha, or put another way, a 30% chance of get-ting less than 0.8 t/ha. There is only a 10% chance of more than 2 t/ha. Figure 1. Distribution of simulated lupin yields at Buntine using historical weather data entirely, or with weather up to 26 March or 21 May replaced with 2006 observations. Several times during the lead-up to the season we replaced the weather observations up to that date with 2006 observations and re-ran the simulations. The 2006 summer rain significantly raised yield expectation. For example, on March 26 the model predicted a median of 1.43 t/ha, and there was only a 10% chance of getting less than 0.9 t/ha. However, the dry weather during much of April and May resulted in yield expectation progressively declining as early sowing op-portunities gradually disappeared (Figure 1). The dry May meant that our criteria for sowing were not met. Nevertheless, most lupins in the area were sown in mid-May, either dry or into moist soil after about 6 mm fell between 15 and 18 May. What is the outlook for these crops? The simulated distribution of yields for lupins sown at

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Bob French, Department of Agriculture and Food, Merredin

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LIEBE NEWSLETTER 15

Buntine on 16 May, using 2006 weather observations up to 5 June, are shown in Figure 2. The median yield, 1.26 t/ha, is still higher than the historical figure and there is still only a 10% chance of getting less than 0.9 t/ha. By comparison, for a crop sown on 10 June we can expect a median yield of less than 1 t/ha, although still a 90% chance of yielding more than 0.7 t/ha. Figure 2. Distribution of simulated lupin yields at Buntine when sown on 16 May or 10 June, using 2006 weather data up to 5 June and historical weather data thereafter. It is important to recognise the following assumptions when interpreting these results. Firstly, we assumed that the May sown crops had germinated and established by the last week in May. The outlook for crops still in the ground ungerminated is no better than for crops sown now. Secondly, these simulations assume good, deep, sandplain soil capable of storing moisture from the summer rain. On shallow or other soils where the crop won’t be able to access this water the yields will be lower. Thirdly, we have assumed effective weed control so the crop isn’t competing against weeds. On the positive side, these simulations were done for Merrit lupins because the model is most accurate for this cultivar. Yields for more modern cultivars should be higher. The outlook for lupins at Buntine this year is still better than usual, thanks to stored soil moisture from summer rain. We will continue to update these runs throughout the season, and are very interested to find out if you think they are useful. If you would like to discuss this work or have any suggestions how it can be improved you can talk to me or Greg Shea at Merredin (90813111) or Brianna at the Liebe Group.

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A 2004 and 2005 survey of 120 lupin paddocks in WA’s northern agricultural region found lupin root rot has declined since 1990. Root and hypocotyl rots can significantly impact yields, with infection retarding growth through reduced efficiency of the plant’s root system. Severe infections can kill seedlings and reduce stand density. The good news is that in the last 15 years, many growers had increased lupin seeding rates and this helped compensate for seedling disease. In most paddocks sampled, lupins were part of an ongoing rotation, typically sown every second or third year. The Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) survey by Geoff Thomas of the Department of Agriculture and Food, found lupin growers can expect some level of root rot in their lupin paddocks in most soil types, environmental regions, rotations and management systems. The survey focused on the extent, severity and identification of the pathogens causing root and hypocotyl rots of lupins. More than 95% of paddocks in the current survey had some level of root rot, although almost two

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 16

thirds had less than 10% of plants affected. This was less than in a similar 1990 survey, in which all surveyed paddocks had root rot and 80% of sites had more than 10% of plants infected. Less common than root rot, hypocotyl rot is the infection of the below ground section of the stem above the seed. While about two thirds of paddocks had hypocotyl rot present, most had less than 5% of plants affected. Hypocotyl rot levels changed little in 15 years. Rhizoctonia solani and Pleiochaeta setosa were commonly isolated from infected roots, with R. solani the most common pathogen isolated from infected hypocotyls. Both GRDC-backed surveys were primarily focused in the principal lupin growing areas in the Northern Agricultural region. Paddocks were sampled in an area from Binnu to Regans Ford and east to Kalannie and Mullewa. Source: GRDC Crop Doctor, Further Information: Geoff Thomas, Tel 08 9368 3262

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Tyrone Henning, Landmark Agronomist

Rain? It is the question on everyone’s lips & has depended on whether you been lucky enough to receive it. With the difficult start following good summer rain, the timing of knockdowns have been a big problem this year. Some paddocks that haven’t been knocked down in early May are now posing a problem with large radish, capeweed, ryegrass, brome grass, silver grass, marshmallow, double gees etc. The big problem with having to knock out these big weeds is having a poor seed bed to seed into, especially for Trifluralin incorporation. The double knock can have a good fit in this sce-nario to help brown out those bigger weeds and to make sure that you obtain a good kill with the knockdown. Adding a spike to glyphosate (ie Logran Bpower) can aid in reducing the time to brown out also. The other issue is that it is getting late and if you have moisture to sow into, we have to go. 1 leaf ryegrass and cotyledon radish are an issue, especially if we have older weeds in the pad-dock. Possibly the double knock (or Logran Bpower) has a good fit here to help pull up those lit-tle ryegrasses that may sneak through the glyphosate. Spraying Spray Seed in the afternoon (or low light conditions and waiting for 30 minutes of light the next day before incorporation) can help with the transfer of herbicide through the plant to help obtain a more effective kill. Don’t for-get the extra wetter for these small weeds. If you are going to be sowing into a paddock that has a lot of green material and only had the knockdown applied a day or two before sowing, make sure there is an insecticide (ie Fastac, Lorsban, etc) in the program to help remove the risk of insect attack on emerging seedlings. The last rainfall events that have been received should be enough to hatch some grubs that were laid earlier this year, typically by moths that we all noticed earlier in the season. Varieties? We are heading towards the later end of the window for the quicks at the moment. Bonnie Rock, Wyalkatchem, Arrino and Tamarin Rock are all suited to this time of sowing. Some adjustments from Calingiri to Arrino, Carnamah to Bonnie Rock could be advantageous for maximising profitability for this season. Lupins. Keep an eye out for broadleaves and possible grasses. We may need to have a timely application of Brodal at the 4 leaf stage (provided moisture is adequate), but mean while aiming for the right timing for the grass selectives. Also, keep an eye out for insect pressure.

LIEBE NEWSLETTER 17

Wheat Since our last issue there has been much ruckus in International Grain Futures with Chicago Board of Trade Decem-ber Futures making highs of 463.00 US cents per bushel, up sharply during May only to come back to more realistic levels in June. Cash prices also have toned down after making highs of around $205 port (ex CBH charges) to be some $10 lower at time of writing. International values (assuming weather in North America is relatively benign) should have seen their high for some time, however, in the medium and longer term the potential for strong values is very real. As the graph below dis-plays the world stock situation is reasonably tight and any major problems around the world would result in a signifi-cant increase in prices. AWB has APW 2006/07 Pool indication to $222 FOB. Note that this now relates to 10.5% protein base NOT 10% as in previous years. The other relevant numbers are $230 FOB for ASWN and $244 FOB for APN. These are both good levels for noodle wheat. The season is not off to the best start. It is prudent for those of you with Bank SWAPS, to monitor your position in relation to production risk. While Bank Swaps do not mean a physical commitment (as does a forward contract), if you have no crop and the Swap price goes against you (due to international market rises or a lower currency or both) then you still need to write a check out to the Bank (or other provider). That equals no cash in from the crop and cash out to the bank. Point being if you have expectations of a production problem/failure do not put your head in the sand in relation to risk management products that you may be using. Barley Forward feed barley prices are not enticing at present. At $155 port (ex CBH charges) it is not likely worth the risk of forward contracting at present. For Malt Barley $180 port (ex CBH charges) is likely a reasonable number. For comparison Geelong port prices is $175 for Feed Barley and $181 for Malt Barley. The feed price in Geelong is reflecting a domestic premium for the dry situation in the Eastern States. In South Australian ports feed barley is $149 port and Malt $173. Canola New crop canola prices have gone much higher than we would have expected thanks to rising energy prices (linked via bio-diesel) and slower farmer selling (as they plant) in Canada. It is likely that current prices will be somewhere around the highs unless North America has new crop production problems. Seeded area in Canada is likely to have grown from earlier estimates and the US soy crop is off to an excellent start. Cash prices port are around $423 (ex CBH charges) which is historically an excellent level. Growing the stuff is the harder issue. Lupins Early new season values are $170 port (ex CBH charges) which is a good level for this time of year. We do not expect much change in these values for some time. World protein values on the decline, however, with WA plantings expected to be well down then the domestic supply and demand situation should have more impact on price. Note: Quoted prices are indications and are current only at time of writing. Prices quoted are exclusive of CBH charges.

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Rob Imray, FarMarCo

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