to protect or not to protect? question! extinction risk ... risk, red lists, & the agony of...

Monika Böhm

Indicator s & Asse ssm ent s Un itmonika.bohm @ioz.a c.uk

To protect or not to protect?Extinction risk, Red Lists, & the agony of choice

@MonniKaboom

Question!

If you had £5,000, would you rather…

Question!


Question!


Question!


© Clare Duncan

Question!


© Clare Duncan

Mon itor ing ma ngrove change from space

Purp le: biomass

Green: b ioma ss

Radar imagery: ALOS PALSAR, European Space AgencyAnalysis: Clare Duncan

Question!


The Agony of Choice Brief history of conservation

Brief history of conservation

Conservationists vs Preservationists

Brief history of conservation

18891826

1922 19611954

1858

1948

Biological diversity / biodiversity

Probably f irst use of term ‘biologi cal div ersity’

in 1968

1980s: biological div ersity / biodiv ersity

So u lé & Wi lco x 19 8 0 C on se rvatio n Bio lo gy: An Evo lu tion ary-Eco lo gical P e rsp e ctive . Sin au e r Asso c.

Organisations over time…

Royal Soc iety for the Protection of Birds 1889

The National Trust 1895

The Societ y for the Promotion of Nature Res erv es 1912

The Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust 1946

The Mam mal Soci ety 1954

Butterf ly Conservation 1968

The Woodland Trust 1972

Vincent Wildlife Trust (mamm als) 1975

The Gam e Conserv ancy Trust 1980

British Dragonfly Soc iety , John Muir Trust, Marin e Conserv ation Soci ety1983

PlantLife 1989

BugLife/Inv ertebrat e Conserv ation Trust 2000

Amphibian & R eptile Conservation Trust 2009

Why all the fuss?

Butc hart, Walpole, Col len, et a l . 2010 Sc ience; Walpole et a l . 2009 Sc ience

Global commitment to biodiversity

CBD Strat egic P lan for Biod ivers ity 2 011-202 0

VISION: a wo rld “Living in ha rmony wit h n ature” whe re “By 2050, b iod iversi ty i s va lued, con served, r esto red and wisely used, ma inta in ing ecosy stem services, su stainin g a hea lthy planet an d de liver ing benef its essent ial for al l pe ople”.

INCLUDES: Aichi B iod ivers ity Ta rgets

• 20 st rategic target s u nder five goals

Global commitment to biodiversity

Target 12: By 20 20 t he extinction of known threa tened specie s has been prevented and the ir con servat ion sta tus, particu lar ly of tho se mo st in decline, ha s been im proved an d sust aine d

Target 12…

How to mea sure pr ogre ss?

How to make pr ogre ss?

Which specie s shou ld we pr ior iti se?

How sho uld w e p rio rit ise conservation action?

Enter - the IUCN Red List!

• most comprehensive information source for extinction risk of species

• provides an explicit, objective framework for the classification of the broadest range of species according to their extinction risk

1963

1969

1964

1986

1996

1996

2008

The IUCN Red List

• Not just a list, but a compilation of the status of species at the global level:

• threats (e.g. invasive species), ecological requirements, and conservation actions

• Based on the best scientific information available

• Widely used to inform and influence biodiversity conservation

• Uses quantitative criteria to estimate extinction risk of species

The IUCN Red List

Incr

eas

ing

exti

nct

ion

ris

k

Crit ically E nda ngere d (C R)

(CR)Endang ered (EN)

Vulne rab le (VU)

Near T hreat ene d (NT)

Least Concer n (LC)

Data Def icien t (DD)

IUCN Red L is t Categories & Cri teria

Currently: 79,837 species (v. 2015.4)

Global-scale assessments of species

Extinct in th e Wild (EW)Extinct ( EX)

Not Eva lu ated (NE)

Red Lists versus Red Data Books

Red ListsSome u se IUCN Re d List Categor ies & Cri teria:

EXTINCTION RISK

Strive t o a sse ss and prov ide l ist s for comp lete sp ecies gro ups:

e.g. mammals

Should t hen be use d t o s teer conservat ion actio n, po licy a nd prio rit isat ion

Are NOT lega l d ocument s

Red Lists versus Red Data Books

Red Data Bo oks:May assess species statu s base d on o ther factors:

e.g. RARITY

List a ll spec ies deem ed t o b e threaten ed a nd need ing protection:

e.g. not comp lete l ist s / LC exclude d

Steer con servat ion po licy a nd prio rit isat ion becau se t hey A RElegal docume nts

Symptoms of high extinction risk

Population size:

Species A Species B

5,700 individuals

>7 million individuals


Population declines:

Species A Species BHumans


Restricted/small distribution:

Humans Species B


Fragmentation of distribution/population:

Humans Species B


Fragmentation of distribution/population:

Humans Mountain gorilla

Least Concern (LC) Endangered (EN)

IUCN Red List Criteria: brief overview

Criteria relate to factors which heighten the extinction risk ofa species:

A Populat ion reduc ti on

B Restr ic te d geogra phi c range

C Small popula tion size & de cli ne

Very small or restr ict ed

popul ati onD

E Qua nti ta tive anal ysi s

CRITERIA

Qua nti ta tive thres ho lds

THREATENED CATEGORIES

Critically Endangered (CR)

Endangered (EN)

Vulnerable (VU)

Prioritising species Threatened status: extinction risk

Threatened status: extinction risk

What are we prioritising?

IUCN R ed List v 2015.4

Sampled Red List approach:Broadening species

coverage of IUCN Red List

% ru

ns w

ith tr

end

in w

rong

dire

ctio

n

Random sample of 1,500 species from species li st to

assess status & ask questions about patterns

Broadening species coverage…

IUCN Red L ist Index

•Measu res tre nds in extinctio n r isk over time

•Used a s a n ind icator to measure pr ogre ss towar d many target s

... for a better picture of biodiversity trends

Verte brate s22% (19-32%)

Invertebrate s24% (15-54%)

Plant s24% (23-28%)

A broader picture… Spatial variation in richness & threat

• To date, most prioritisation based on endemic spp, probably as its easy to measure…?

• Endemism might be a poor predictor of total spp r ichness

Spp. richness

Threatened spp.

Endemic spp.

Orme et al. 2005 Nature

Spatial variation in richness & threat

Freshwater species richness (>7,000 species)

Collen, Whitt on, Dyer, Baillie, Cumbe rlidge, Darwall, P ollock, Richman, S oulsby & Böhm (2013 ) G EB

Spatial congruence in richness & threat

Congruence of 5% richest cells

Determining congruence across taxa

Species richness hotspots for six freshwater taxa

Collen, Whitt on, Dyer, Baillie, Cumbe rlidge, Darwall, P ollock, Richman, S oulsby & Böhm (2013 ) G EB

EDGE: Evolutionary Distinct, Globally Endangered

Combine global endan germ ent ( IUCN Red L ist status) with evolutionary distincti ven ess

Bininda-Emonds et al. (2007) Nature doi:10.1038/ nature05634

Jetz et al. (2014) Current Biology


Calculating ED score

Evolutionary history of each branch is shared equally between all tips descending from that branch

ED score for a branch is the branch length divided by the size of the clade

ED score for each species is sum for each branch between root and tip

e.g. ed.calc in ‘caper’ package for R

e.g. Giant ibis with ED = 56.62592


Calculating EDGE score

EDGE = ln(1+ED) + GE*ln(2)

Where GE:

Incr

eas

ing

exti

nct

ion

ris

k

Crit ically E nda ngere d (C R)

(CR)Endang ered (EN)

Vulne rab le (VU)

Near T hreat ene d (NT)

Least Concer n (LC)

Data Def icien t (DD)

Extinct in th e Wild (EW)Extinct ( EX)

5

4

3

2

1

0

Giant ibis: Critically Endangered= ln(1+56.62952)+4*ln(2)

= 6.826561

Tops EDGE birds list!

EDGE: Evolutionary Distinct, Globally Endangered EDGE: Evolutionary Distinct, Globally Endangered

How to protect EDGE species•Awareness rais ing•Fie ld res earch•Implem entation of conserv ation actions•Training of conservationists (EDGE F ellows): building conservation c apac ity•Fundraising

EDG E m ission•to prevent the extinction of the world's most Evolutionarily Distinct and Globa lly Endang ered (EDGE) sp eci es

Climate change vulnerability?

Sensitivity•Habitat specialisations

– Number of habitat types, microhabitat use, elev ation

•Narrow environmental tolerances

– Precipitation, temperature, f ire , f looding, TSD

•Interspecific interactions– Diet, interspec if ic

interactions

Low Adaptability•Poor dispersabi lity

– Dispersal distance, occurrence in isolated areas

•Poor evolvability– Longevity, reproductive

output

Exposure•Sea level

– Sea level rise•Temperature change

– Mean temperature change, temperature variability

•Precipitation change– Mean precipitation

change, precipitation variability

H + H H+ =Highly vulnerable to climate change

Climate change vulnerability: reptiles

1,498 reptiles14 traits5 exposure variables

Böhm et al. ( in prep) Biol. Cons.


Distribution of climate change vulnerable species

Number of highly climat e ch ange

vulnerabl e speci es

1 - 2

3 - 4

5 - 6

7 - 8

9 - 10

11 - 12

13 - 14

15 - 16

17 - 18


Overlap of hotspots of threatened & climate change vulnerable species

CCVA vulnerable and Red List ‘Threatened’CCVA vulnerable onlyRed List ‘Threatened’ only

Is endangerment or threat best prioritisation? Species as natural capital

Stock of ecologica l wea lth or env iro nme nta l a sse ts that sustain human well-be ing

Natu ral capital

Ecosyst em servi ce

Pollinator

Pollinat io n

Natural capital & ecosystem services in policy

2020 Aichi Biodiversity Targets

Threatened species as natural capital? Do common species do a better job?

Wild bees pollinate 71 of 100 crops that provide 90% of food supply to humans (in 146 countries) (FAO 200 5 Pro tectin g t he p ollinat ors, http:/ /www.fa o.o rg/ ag/ mag azine /05 12sp 1.ht m)

In EU, 84% of crops rely on insect pollinationValue of insect pollinators to global economy: €153 billion(Gallai et al . 20 08 Ec ologic al Econ omics 68, 81 0-8 21)

Do common species do a better job?

Global value of soil biodiversity: USD $1,500 billion (Pimentel et al. 1 997 BioScience 47, 747 -75 7)

France: value of carbon stock in grassland soils: €320/ha/yr (Cent re d’Analys e Stra tégi que 200 9 Eco nomi c ap pro ach to biodiv ersity and eco syste m services . www.la doc ume ntati onf ranc aise. fr)


Dung_burial_preferred.jpg

In USA: Losey & Vaughan 2006 BioScience 56, 311-323


Single oyster can filter up to 124l of water in 24 hours – 85% of global oyster reefs have been lost (CBD 20 10 Gl obal Bi odive rsity O utlo ok 3 , UNEP)

Single unionid mussel can filter around 40l of water per day (Ta nke rsley & Tim mock 19 93 Ca n. J. Zool. 71, 193 4-1 944 )

Tracking trends of common species Tracking trends of common species

Potts et al. 2010. Global pollinator declines: trends, impacts and drivers. TREE 25, 345-353

The Living Planet Index

2014 LPI: 52% decline in vertebrate populations

The Living Planet Index

2014 LPI: 52% decline in vertebrate populations

What about inverts? Plants? Fungi?

The agony of choice: what to protect?

“To keep every cog and wheel is the first

precaution of intelligent tinkering.”

Acknowledgements

• The R uffor d Fo undat ion

• Esmée Fa irba irn Fou ndat ion

• ZSL Mission O ppo rtun ities Fund

• Ben Col len, Lo uise McRae, R ob in Fr eeman, And res Garcia, Ana Davidso n, Jamie Car r, Clare D uncan, B en Ta pley

• Ellie Dyer, Felix Wh itton, Anne-Marie Soulsby, Shane McGuinness, Gita Kastha la, Maiko Lutz, Al ly Batchelor, Je z Smith, Fiona Living ston, Ali son Beresfor d, Georgia C ryer, Ranmali De Silva, Harri Mi lligan, Kirsten McMil lan, Amy C oll ins, Rebecca Herdson, Ju lia T horley, Sus ie Offord, Dan Hall, Soph ie Ledger, Elle Smith, Alice Fitch, Danie lC ook, Heidi Ma

to protect or not to protect? question! extinction risk ... risk, red lists, & the agony of...

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