tokyo workshop on an african green revolution. planned research session agro-climate and green...
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Tokyo Workshop on An African Green Revolution.Planned Research Session
Agro-climate and Green Revolution:Evidence from India with Implications for Africa
Dec. 7th 2008Takuji Tsusaka and Kaliappa Kalirajan
Overview: Drivers of Success in India
• Successful Regions New agricultural policy toward technology development in the context of the successive droughts in the mid ’60s in the northwest region. High irrigation ratio Introduction of tube well Importance of road conditions
• Further Development1980s: Development of Modern Varieties Introduction of small scale irrigation with pumping.
Rural poverty reduction
Influence of British Colonization
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sorghum
Millet
Rice
Wheat, Maize,Barley and Others
India consists of 29 states of
diverse agro-climates
The agricultural production environments in some parts of India are similar to those in Africa, which implies a technology transferability
(1) Similarity in Cropping Patterns
(2) Diversity in agro-climate
(3) Dominance of peasants
Rationale for Comparison of between India and AfricaSimilarities
Bajra (Pearl Millet) Field
Sources: The India Database; WDR 2008
(1)Area harvested (%)
4320
8
India SSA Asia(1987) (2000-
2004Avg.)(2000-2004Avg.)
(2) Agro-Climate Diversity• Geographic area: 328 million ha, from 8oN to 36oN in latitude, between 68oE and 98oE in lon
gitude, the altitude varying from the mean sea-level to the highest mountain ranges of the world.
• Rainfall: India contains the station with the highest mean annual rainfall in the world (Cherrapunji in Assam) and also dry, semi-desert area in Rajasthan. In parts of Rajasthan and the Deccan, the variability of rainfall is more than 100 per cent of the mean.
• Temperature: It varies greatly geographically as well as seasonally. Northern and central parts of India in the pre-monsoon months the maximum temperatures of over 40oC are reached over a large area. Frost occurs in winter in the plains, as far south as a line drawn through Madhya Pradesh and may be heavy in Kashmir and areas north of Punjab.
• The peasantry ranges from the relatively affluent Punjabi farmers who operate with a high input intensity in agriculture to the subsistent farmers of eastern and central India. Between these two extremes, various intensities of cultivation are practiced. The fact is that the average farm-size in most areas is lower than that in most tropical countries.
Rationale for Comparison between India and AfricaSimilarities
(3) Dominance of Peasants
Reference: Krishiworld
District-level Climate Diversity in India
0
20
40
60
80
100
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 330
20
40
60
80
015
030
045
060
075
090
0
Precipitation (July) Temperature (July)
mm °C
# of districts # of districts
Rather varied precipitation and temperature levels across districts.
Sources: The India Database for 1987
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Comparison of Average Cereal Yields between India and Africa
Source: FAOSTAT
Sub-Saharan Africa
India
Despite the similarity in cropping patterns,
there is a significant gap in yield growth.
(Ton/ha)
Southeast Asia
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
Yield Growth in Major CropsIndia vs. Africa
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
The yields for dominant crops in Africa, sorghum and millet, are not inferior to those in India, indicating the limited transferability of technology from India. Aside from rice, it may be better to focus on the technology on maize.
Wheat
Rice
Maize
SorghumMillet
Yield (Ton/ha) Yield (Ton/ha)
Wheat
Rice
Maize
SorghumMillet
India Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: FAOSTAT
Research Questions to be Answered
Q1. Is the soil quality a critical factor? It it is, to what extent? Isn’t there any possibility for breakthrough?
Q2. Is there a possibility of growth under poor road condition and lack of irrigation?
Q3. Are climate instability and adverse climate, which are common in SSA, a stumbling block? How is it comparable to India?
Is the role of climate becoming less important as technology improves?
Underlying Assumption: Before the introduction of MVs, factors affecting crop yields were not essentially different
between SSA and India. Reliable panel data will be useful to explore these issues quantitatively.
Water
Road
AgriculturalProductivity
Climate
MVs
Soil
Role of Climate Factors
Pearl Millet
Sorghum
Maize
Wheat
Rice
Insignificant
Insignificant
Negative
Positive
Negative
Rainfall Temperature
Negative
Negative
Negative
Positive
Positive
Preliminary results of a cross-sectional regression of the major crop yields on rainfall and temperature using district-level data in 1987 in India.
One example of future findings.
Construction of Panel Data
2000s|
1989
1988|
1956
Agricultural IP/OP
(5 major crops)
Other Controls(Popden/agL/culL/wage/literacy)
Edaphic(Iype/Aquifer thi
ckness/p-H/Topsoil thic
kness)
Climate(Temperature/
Rainfall)
District-level(271 districts)
Avg. of 30yrs
Given the panel, you can see the fluctuation
Infrastructure(Irrigation/
Road)
Some input pricescan be a proxy
Probably it is not so difficult to find recent data, but
problems may be the unavailability of consistent district-level data over the long period.