Top 20 fastest growing

suburbs in NSW

August 2015

Top 20 growth suburbs in New South Wales2011 - 2021

Using .id’s Small Area Forecasts (SAFi) we take a look at top

twenty population growth areas in New South Wales.

We also offer some insights into the factors driving growth, and

share our thoughts on how businesses and planning authorities

can best use the detailed information contained in the SAFi

population forecasts.

Areas with

the largest

growth are

also

growing

the fastest

Areas with

the largest

growth are

also

growing

the fastest

Areas with

the largest

growth are

also

growing

the fastest

It’s a two horse race

Riverstone – Marsden Park in North West Sydney

It’s a two horse race

Cobbity – Leppington in South West Sydney

Riverstone – Marsden Park in North West Sydney

It’s a two horse race

Why are these areas forecast to grow?

Not all growth is the same, and at .id, we are always interested in the ‘why’

not just the ‘what’.

In simple terms, demographic changes such as births, deaths and

migration determine the size of the population. Housing development

influences where that changing population will be accommodated.

Therefore it is a key driver of local area population growth.

For the purposes of this analysis we have identified three types of housing

development that drive change:

• Greenfield development – where land is repurposed, usually from agricultural

uses, and is given over to housing;

• Industrial redevelopment – where areas of a city are converted from other

uses to residential, such as an old industrial site, or a golf-course. Also known

as brownfield; and

• Urban intensification – where medium and high-density units and apartments

start to replace detached housing.

Main drivers of growth

Strongest population growth is occurring in areas where large greenfield developments are currently underway

Greenfield development

Urban intensification

Urban intensification is an important

contributor to increases in dwellings

and the associated population growth.

Population growth in Waterloo –

Beaconsfield is driven by inner-city

medium and high-density

developments, while growth in

Homebush Bay – Silverwater area will

come from apartment construction at

Sydney Olympic Park.

With a number of high-density

developments in train the Sydney –

Haymarket – The Rocks area is

expected to add almost 10,000 people

to its population in the decade to 2021.

Not all growth is the same

At .id we specialise in helping business and government prepare for the future. In this

sense, it is important to know where growth will occur, not just what growth itself will

be.

For example, if you were to purchase a Jim’s Mowing franchise in a fast growing area

in inner city Sydney based on the forecast increase in population, you would be

severely disappointed. Different development drivers create different opportunities for

different businesses.

It is also important to know what the makeup of the population will be. An area might

be growing fast, but who is moving there?

• Is it families?

• Young or mature families?

• Empty-nesters?

SAFi forecasts include a breakdown of the population by age and sex, with data

available on household size and type, to further understand the changing dynamics

within communities and help you pinpoint your target market.

For example, The Catholic Education Office use them to plan when and where to

open schools. The YMCA use test the viability of different health centres, and Japara

Healthcare use them to plan their investment in aged care facilities.

If your business could benefit from a nuanced, high-

definition understanding of how your market is going

to grow, learn more about SAFi here

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