TOPIC’S OVERVIEW

Topic 1-5

TOPIC 1: INTRODUCTION TO SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHY

Introduction

Definition of demography

and social demography

History

Basic concepts

Definition of Demography and Social Demography

• Demography refers to the study and analysis of human populations.

• Demography is the study of the size, composition and distribution of human population and how these factors change over time.

• Demography is about the number ie population.• Social demography is about the implication of the number

ie implication of the population.

History

• Census data: There are indications that population enumerations were made in Babylonia before 3800 B.C., in China about 3000 B.C., and in Egypt near 2500 B.C., but these have been questioned.

• Ancient Greece and Rome conducted numerous population counts at which data were gathered regarding certain social and economic characteristics of the people.

• The primary purpose in the early census enumerations, as in modern times, was to secure essential data as an administrative aid to governing bodies. The nature of the data collected, along with the count of the population, reflects the governmental problems of the times; e.g., taxation, military service, the rights and duties of various classes of the people, and so forth.

Basic ConceptsConcepts Meaning

The crude birth rate the annual number of live births per 1,000 people.

The general fertility rate

the annual number of live births per 1,000 women of childbearing age (often taken to be from 15 to 49 years old, but sometimes from 15 to 44).

The crude death rate the annual number of deaths per 1,000 people.

The infant mortality rate

the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1,000 live births.

A stable population one that has had constant crude birth and death rates for such a long period of time that the percentage of people in every age class remains constant, or equivalently, the population pyramid has an unchanging structure.

TOPIC 2: DATA COLLECTION IN DEMOGRAPHY

Historical Background

Important Concepts

Basic Demographic Equation

Historical Background

Scholar Contribution

Ibnu Khaldun (1332-1406) Father of demography

John Graunt Primitive form of life table

Edmond Halley Life insurance mathematic

Richard Price 1st text book in life contingencies (1771)

Thomas Malthus Malthus theory

IMPORTANT CONCEPTS

Concepts

Child mortality rate

Sex ratio

Dependents ratio

Employment rate

Unemployment rate

Life expectancy at birth

Gross natural increase

Total fertility rate

Poverty Line Index

Absolute poverty

Population density per square kilometer

BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC EQUATION

• Suppose that a country (or other entity) contains Populationt persons at time t. What is the size of the population at time t + 1 ?

• Natural increase from time t to t + 1:

• Net migration from time t to t + 1:

Populationt + 1 = Populationt + Natural increaset + Netmigrationt

Natural increaset = Birthst − Deathst

Netmigrationt = Immigrationt − Emigrationt

TOPIC 3: POPULATION AND SIZE

Definition Basic Concepts

Basic Theories

Population Trends in Malaysia

DEFINITION

• The term population refers to the total number of people inhabiting a particular geographical area at a specified time.

• The three basic elements that shape the size, composition and distribution of human population are fertility, mortality and migration.

BASIC CONCEPTSConcepts Definitions

Population growth change of population over time

Growth rate The change in population over a unit time period is expressed as a percentage of the population at the beginning of the time period. population at end of time - population at beginning of time / by population at beginning of time.

Growth ratio A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of people at the two times -- net difference between births, deaths and migration is zero.

Over Population Population exceeding the carrying capacity of an area or environment .

Lack of Population Under population: population is not large enough to maintain an economic system.

BASIC THEORIESTheory Basic Arguments

Demographic Transition Theory Developed by American Demographer, Frank Notestein (1945).

The theory suggests that population growth has taken place across the globe in three stages – the pre-modern stage, early industrial stage and mature industrial stage.

Maltus Theory Introduced by Thomas R. Malthus in 1798.

The theory suggests that population increase in geometrical ratio where as food supply increase in arithmetical ratio. This disharmony would lead to widespread poverty and starvation which would only be checked by natural occurrences such as disease, high infant mortality, famine, war or moral restraint.

POPULATION TRENDS IN MALAYSIA

TOPIC 4: FERTILITY

Definition

Basic Concepts

Ways of Measuring Fertility

Fertility in Malaysia

Issues & Challenges in

Fertility

DEFINITION

Fertility refers to the actual number of children born. This is distinguished from fecundity, or the biological maximum

number of children that could be born.

BASIC CONCEPTS

Concept Definition

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) The total number of children a woman would bear during her lifetime if she were to experience the prevailing age-specific fertility rates of women.

Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) The number of baby girls a cohort will have. It assumes that all of the baby girls will grow up and live to at least age 50.

Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) The NRR starts with the GRR and adds the realistic assumption that some of the women will die before age 59; therefore they will not be alive to bear some of the potential babies that were counted in the GRR.

WAYS OF MEASURING FERTILITY

Ways of Measurement Explanation

Period measure Refer to a cross-section of the population in one year

Cohort measure Follows the same people over a period of decades

FERTILITY IN MALAYSIAAge Semenanjung Sabah Sarawak

1980 1984 1994 2004 1980 1989* 2004 1980 1989* 2004 1980

15-19 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 15-19

20-24 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 20-24

25-29 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.2 25-29

30-34 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.6 4.0 3.9 3.3 3.9 3.3 2.9 30-34

35-39 4.7 4.2 3.9 3.4 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.9 4.1 3.5 35-39

40-44 5.5 5.4 4.4 3.9 5.6 5.5 5.1 5.4 4.5 3.7 40-44

45-49 5.9 6.1 4.9 3.9 5.6 6.0 5.6 5.8 5.4 3.9 45-49

Jumlah 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.1 Jumlah

Min number of children born by age and ethnicity (2004)

Age Malay Chinese Indian Total

15-19 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.7

20-24 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.2

25-29 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8

30-34 2.8 2.2 2.8 2.6

35-39 3.9 2.7 2.8 3.4

40-44 4.6 3.1 3.2 3.9

45-49 4.7 3.0 3.3 3.9

ISSUES AND CHALLENGES IN FERTILITY

• Social support and services: childcare, day care, house maid

• Ageing population• Support for the government: youth not supporting the

government (anti establishment)

TOPIC 5: MORTALITY

Definition

Conventional

Measurement of

Mortality

Factors Affecting Mortality

Mortality in

Malaysia

DEFINITION

Mortality refers to the number of deaths that occur in a particular population.

CONVENTIONAL MEASUREMENT OF MORTALITY

Measurement ExplanationThe crude death rate Refers to the total number of deaths for

every 1000 people. If D is the total number of deaths among residents in a community during a calendar year, and P is the average number of persons living in that community during the year, then the crude death rate is: D/P x k (k is a constant- 1000 or 100,000)

Specific death rates- A specific death rate may be computed for segments of the community differentiated by age, sex, race, marital status, and other characteristics, provided both D and P relate to the same segment.

Infant mortality rate If D is the number of deaths (excluding fetal deaths) between birth and age one year among residents in a community during calendar year z, and B, is the total number of live births within the same year, then the infant mortality rate is: D/B x k (k is constant- 1000 or 100,000)

Measurement Explanation

The perinatal mortality rate the sum of neonatal deaths and fetal deaths (stillbirths) per 1000 births.

The maternal mortality rate the number of maternal deaths due to childbearing per 100,000 live births.

The standardized mortality rate- This represents a proportional comparison to the numbers of deaths that would have been expected if the population had been of a standard composition in terms of age, gender, etc.

The age specific mortality rate (ASMR)

This refers to the total number of deaths per year per 1000 people of a given age (e.g. age 62 last birthday).

FACTORS AFFECTING MORTALITY

• Age of country's population. • Nutrition levels. • Standards of diet and housing. • Access to clean drinking water. • Hygiene levels. • Levels of infectious diseases. • Social factors such as conflicts and levels of violent

crime. • Amount and quality of health care available.

MORTALITY IN MALAYSIA

Factors affecting mortality in Malaysia

• Why is the mortality rate decreasing?• Better health services and facilities• Better income• Better food

Assessment

• Test 1: 20% (Minggu 4 antara 29 September hingga 3 Oktober)

• Assignment: 40% (Tarikh penghantaran Minggu 12 antara 1-5 Disember)

• Take home exam: 40%