04.Sept.2006 1

The Effects of Demography in Political Perspective :

Demographic Change in Japan between 2000 and 2030

Toshihiko HARA

-Sapporo City University, Professor (Ph.D.in Sociology)

Introduction

• In this report, we will overview the demographic change in Japan between 2000 and 2030, referring to the 12th Japanese Population Projections, January 2002, by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (NIPSSR), for the new ones are under preparation for announcement in next year.

• The 13th projections will be adjusted to recent fertility trend in Japan, ba

sed on the results of the 2005 population census and the Vital Statistics. • However, long-range basic trend will be not different from the 12th proj

ections.• After reviewing the demographic changes in Japan, we will show some

speculations on their effects in political perspective .

Trend of the Total Populationpeak ： 127.74 million in 2006（ in fact: in 2004 ）

100.6 million in 2050

Trend of the Total Population (in succession)

• The population is expected to gradually increase in subsequent years, reaching its peak of 127.74 million in 2006, then enter a longstanding depopulation process.

• The population is expected to drop to the size in 2000 by 2013, then decrease to about 100.6 million in 2050.

• It is now well known to have already reached its peak in 2004, two years in advance.

• After then, the expression of Depopulation Society is getting popularity in Japanese Media.

Trend of the Total Fertility Rates (TFR)

1.36 in 2000

1.31 in 2007

1.25 in 2005

1.39 in 2049

Trend of the Total Fertility Rates (TFR) (in succession)

• Assumption for the Medium Variant: TFR will decline from 1.36 in 2000 to 1.31 in 2007. Thereafter, a gradual upward change is predicted, and in 2049 the rate will be 1.39.

• Assumption for the High Variant:TFR will turn upward immediately from 1.36 in 2000, reaching 1.63 in 2049.

• Assumption for the Low Variant: the continues to decline from 1.36 in 2000, reaching 1.10 in 2049.

• In fact, TFR in Japan continues to decline from 1.36 in 2000, having reached already 1.25 (ref.. 1.31 of assumption in Mv., 1.36 in Hv. and 1.22 in Lv.) in 2005.

Trend of the Total Fertility Rates (TFR) (in succession)19

47

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

Year

Age

Age Specific Fertirity Rates：Japan 1949-

0.28-0.3

0.26-0.28

0.24-0.26

0.22-0.24

0.2-0.22

0.18-0.2

0.16-0.18

0.14-0.16

0.12-0.14

0.1-0.12

0.08-0.1

0.06-0.08

0.04-0.06

0.02-0.04

0-0.02

Trend of the Survival Rate (Future Life Table)male ： 78.11 （ 78.64 ）　 Female 　 85.20 （ 85.59 ） in 2005

male ： 80.95 　 Female 　 89.22 in 20 ５０

Trend of the Survival Rate (Future Life Table) (in succession)

• According to the future life tables, the life expectancy, 77.64 years for males and 84.62 years for females in the year 2000, is expected to extend to 78.11 years for males and 85.20 years for females in 2005, 79.76 years for males and 87.52 years for females in 2025, and, in 2050, 80.95 years for males and 89.22 years for females.

• According to the Vital Statistics in Japan, the life expectancy, 78.64 years for males and 85.59 years for females is recorded in 2005.

Trend of the international migration rate

• Because international migration for Japanese population is relatively stable, the assumptions were made as follows: first, obtain the average value of the annual net international migration rate between 1995 and 2000, and adjust the rate to remove the blurring which occurs due to random fluctuation as constant for 2001 onward.

Males 20-60:net migration rate <0

Females 20-60:net migration rate >0

Population Trend for Three Major Age Groups

Trend of the Proportion of Three Major Age Groups

Child Population (aged under 15): 10.8%

Working-age (15 to 64) population : 53.6 %

Aged(65 and over)

population : 35.7%

Aging Population

• Child Population (aged under 15):According to the medium variant projection, is expected to shrink from the current 14.6% level (2000) to the 14% mark in 2005, and eventually down to 12.0% in 2021. The downward trend continues to 11.0% in 2036, and by 2050, the percentage is expected to be around 10.8%.

• Working-age Population (15 to 64) started falling in 2000 at 68.1%, and is expected to reduce to 60.0% in 2020 .The decline continues on slowly to 10 points lower than the current standard in 2035 at 58.0%, 54.9% in 2043, and eventually to 53.6% in 2050.

• Aged Population (aged 65 and over) will grow from the current 17.4% (2000) to the 25% range in 2014. It will eventually reach the 30 plus-percent range in 2033. The increase persists, reaching 35.7% in 2050.

The Population Pyramid in the year 2000

←The first baby boom 1947-50

←The second baby boom 1971-74

←Hinoeuma 1966

The Population Pyramid in the year 2025

←The first baby boom 1947-50

←The second baby boom 1971-74

←Hinoeuma 1966

The Population Pyramid in the year 2050

←The first baby boom 1947-50

←The second baby boom 1971-74

←Hinoeuma 1966

Trend of Population Dependency RatioSelected age-structure indices of Japanese population, 1884-2050: Medium variant

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1884

1898

1920

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year

age-

stru

ctur

e in

dice

sTotal Childeren

Old-age

43.5 in 1990

End of Demographic Bonus

86.8 in 205071.6 in 1920

Changes in Regional Populations from 2000 to 2030

Population growth rates /5years

Green:0%-2% Red: under -2%

2005-2010

2015-2020

2025-2030

Aged Population (aged 65 and over)

Green:20%-30%

Red: over 30% 2030

2015

White: under 20%

2000

The effects of Demography in Political Perspective ?

• Falling down of local communities and hyper-concentration to metropolitan area→Becoming Japan as City States ? 　（ a wider-area local government system ）

• ● → →地域社会の崩壊 大都市圏への集中化 都市国家化する？

• Expanding Income-gaps/Reduction of Middle Class Population, Globalization of Japanese Elite /Developing AI-Robots Technology ●格差の拡大／エリート層の相対的縮小・国際化／人工知能化・ロボット化

• World-leading Consumer Market as the most Aging Society in the human history ●高度消費社会としては世界の先端を行くだろう。

The effects of Demography in Political Perspective ?

• Short coming and Import of Human Resource for further Technological Innovations ● 技術革新など人的資源の不足と輸入？

• Short coming of Human Resource for political Innovations:Ultra-Conservative Society.40% of votes belong to Aged Population (aged 65 and over) . ● 政治的なパワーの担い手？ 選挙？ 社会の保守化：有効票の過半数が老人票

• Spiritually radical Nationalism and facturally Timidity in Asian Deplomacy ? ● 精神的な意味ではナショナリズムを強調・実態としては弱腰：東アジアのリーダーシップは取れないだろう。