Sharon Orrell October 2013

Tourism Trends

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r-0

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-06

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-07

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Feb-1

0

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-10

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-11

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2

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Jun

-12

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2

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3

Ap

r-1

3

Jun

-13

Domestic Tourism in England – Rolling 12 Month Trend Trips

(m)

It was a challenging start to the year – though the longer term

trend is one of stability

Source: GBTS

Holiday

VFR

Business

Jan-

June

2013

-4%

-2%

-6%

0

5

10

15

20

25

Seaside Large Town / City Small Town Countryside / Village

Domestic Overnight Trips January - June

2011 2012 2013

Just like last year, trends have varied by destination type

Trips

(m)

Source: GBTS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

South West South East North West London Yorks &Humb

WestMidlands

East EastMidlands

North East

Domestic Overnight Trips January - June

2011 2012 2013

...and this is reflected in regional results

Trips

(m)

Source: GBTS

(39%) (50%) (10%)

Weather on England Good Mixed Poor holiday

(36%) (55%) (9%) (2010)

(2009)

(39%) (54%) (7%) (2011)

(31%) (57%) (12%) (2012)

56% 40% 2013 holiday

4%

But then....

Source: Staycation Research, Sept 2013

(39%) (50%) (10%)

Weather on England Good Mixed Poor holiday

(36%) (55%) (9%) (2010)

(2009)

(39%) (54%) (7%) (2011)

(31%) (57%) (12%) (2012)

56% 40% 2013 holiday

4%

But then....

Source: Staycation Research, Sept 2013

81

2

17

80

16

4

It hasn't affected how I feel about takingholidays in England next year

It's put me off taking holidays in Englandnext year

It's made me more likely to take holidays inEngland next year

Impact of Weather on Future Holiday Intentions

2013

2012

Some of our visitors will always be influenced by the weather - though most

aren’t

Source: VE Staycation Research

33 30

23 22

33 32 28

44

54

39 40

28

36 40

43

35

49

66

April 2012 Jun-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Sep-13

% Businesses Reporting Increased Visitors in Recent Period

Accommodation Attractions

Summer 2012 business performance results the most positive

since starting this survey

Source: VE Tourism Business Monitor

73 51

39 56 55

84 62

15 17 27 27 32 10

25

Hotels GuestHouses /

B&Bs

Self-Catering

Caravan /Camping

IndoorAttractions

OutdoorAttractions

MixedAttractions

% Businesses Reporting Change in Visitor Numbers – Summer Holidays 2013

Increased Decreased

...though trends differ by business type

Source: VE Tourism Business Monitor

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

UK GDP by Quarter

It seems the economy is finally emerging from recession

People are now less concerned about the economy than they

were – but over half are still worried about making ends meet

70

75

63

58

61 64

74 72

70

67 69

61

53

59 60

65 66

65 64

66

60

52 54

47 49

54

57

60 61

59 58

59

55

Oct/Nov08

Feb/Mar09

Jun-09 Oct/Nov09

Feb-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Sep-13

% strongly / slightly agree

Very concernedabout it

Concerned about jobsecurity

Worried aboutmaking ends meet

Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research

25 27 25 25 24 24 20 19 17 18 17 15

55 52 53 51 52 54 51 53 52 50 52

47

10 13 13 15 17 16 20 16

14 19 22 28

10 8 8 9 6 6 9 12 17 13 9 10

Sep-13Feb-13Sep-12Feb-12Sep-11Mar-11Sep-10Feb-10Oct-09Jun-09Feb-09Oct/Nov08

Seriously affected Affected a little Hasn’t affected, but concerned Hasn’t affected, not worried

And the numbers affected by the downturn haven’t shifted

much (38% of families still “seriously affected”)

Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ... 2023

UK Domestic Holiday Trips 2006 - 2023

What happens next???

Source: GBTS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Outbound Trips by UK Residents 1989 -2012

The growth of outbound travel started during the last recession

Trips

(m)

Source: International Passenger Survey

Recession Recession

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Domestic Overnight Tourism Trips 1989-1998 (Millions)

Total UK UK Holiday (Pure Holiday + VFR Holiday)

...but domestic travel also grew from 1993 onwards

Source: UKTS/GBTS

Note: a 3% upweight has been applied to 2010-12 data in place of Northern Ireland results

Recession

Among 2013 “switchers” (those who took a domestic holiday instead of

going abroad...)

52%

49%

It made me want to take more holidaysin England

It made me want to take a holidayabroad next time

% Agree

55

%

49%

Sept 2012

Among 2013 “switchers” (those who took a domestic holiday instead of

going abroad...)

52%

49%

It made me want to take more holidaysin England

It made me want to take a holidayabroad next time

% Agree

55

%

49%

Sept 2012

It’s still all to play for...

What can we do about it?

Lacking information and inspiration

– Many simply ‘don’t know what they

don’t know’

• large swathes of country are

unfamiliar or not expected to be

appealing

• patchy awareness even amongst the

self proclaimed more knowledgeable

empty nesters

– Potential visitors have a relatively

narrow repertoire of places visited or

wanting to visit • and often only have a vague

perception of not yet visited wish list

places

Lack of knowledge plus broad brush prejudices can

prevent consideration of much of England.

“(South East)The wrong kind of

people – not for me.” (Derby: Empty nester)

“Liverpool, Birmingham,

Leicester triangle, is there

anything there to see or do?” (London: Pre-family)

“I think the majority of seaside

towns in the UK are tacky

apart from Cornwall.” (London: Pre-family)

Source: VisitEngland Thematic Research

We need to provide 3D inspiration and information to

build consideration

Where to go? Heard of places or have

vague appealing image,

but not always both

Where Is it? People's geography can

be quite poor, and location

and proximity steers are

helpful

What’s there to do? Beautiful scenery is not

always enough, especially

for longer trips (and if it

rains…)

Need a sufficiently 3D

view to be compelling

Source: VisitEngland Thematic Research

PS...

94

92

ENGLAND

110

Cornwall

106

Lake District

105

New Forest

105

Northumberland

104

Isle of Wight

103

Yorks Dales

102

Liverpool

101

York

98

Cotswolds

97

Peak District 97

Skegness

84

Oxfordshire

74

Birmingham

81

Kent 80

Bristol

81

Manchester

81

Gt Yarmouth

67

Essex

76

Leeds

76

East Sussex

Visitor Satisfaction in

England 2011-12

Among England’s cities,

York was second only to

Liverpool

92

Brighton

95

Torquay 92

B’mouth

96

Chester

96

London

93

Suffolk

87

Blackpool

96

Bath

96

Scarborough

97

Other Devon

88

Stratford 95

Other Norfolk

92

Nottingham shire

Source: VisitEngland Brand & Satisfaction Tracker

94

94

ENGLAND

109

Cornwall

109

Lake District

107

Northumberland

Yorks Dales York

Kent

Bristol

Manchester

Gt Yarmouth

Essex

Leeds

East Sussex

Visitor Satisfaction in

England 2011-13

York now leads

England’s cities in

delivering visitor

satisfaction!

Scarborough

109

Lake District

109

Yorks Moors

Liverpool

Bath

Cotswolds

London

New Forest

Isle of Wight Torquay

Yorkshire Coast

97

71

73

Kent Coast

Durham

Warwickshire

Gloucester -shire

Staffordshire

Lincoln

73

Eastbourne

Peak District

Skegness

94

Notting -ham

Suffolk Cambridge

Newcastle

Blackpool

Chester

Bournemouth

Wey- mouth

Somerset

Oxford

Stratford Shropshire

Brighton

Wiltshire

Derbyshire

Other Devon

Birmingham Other Norfolk

97

97

99 102 104

97 97

98

98

97

100

81 79

89

88

82

89

88

77

75 85

84

77

76

89

88

91 93

91

92 95

92

96

96

96

92

89

86

80 90

97

www.visitengland.org/insight-statistics

Sharon Orrell October 2013

Tourism Trends