towards a successful integration of wind power into europe’s electricity grids

Towards a successful integration of wind Towards a successful integration of wind power into Europe’s electricity gridspower into Europe’s electricity grids

ContentsContents

• Study background and aims• Approach & methodology• Sample results• Key findings

– Network strengthening– Making best use of existing network capacity– Wind / network technical compatibility– Costs and benefits– Policy issues

• Next steps• Acknowledgements

Background and AimsBackground and Aims

• Initiated summer 2007 by a consortium of TSOs from across Europe’s 4 synchronous areas

• With focus on:– Achieving Europe’s renewable energy targets– By addressing immediate and near-term network related

challenges concerning large scale wind power – In the context of a developing single internal market

ApproachApproach

• Detailed network models for Continental, Nordic, Great Britain and Ireland synchronous areas

• Collated existing national development plans to 2015 providing outlook to 2020

• Wind development scenarios consistent with TradeWind

• Market models and economic analysis supported by SUPWISci

• Project consultation including European Commission and other stakeholders

MethodologyMethodology

• Combine findings from detailed analysis of snapshots into context provided by year-round market modelling

• Year round modelling of wind in electricity market:– Measured wind time series spanning Europe– Day-ahead dispatch (national copper plates with designated cross-border

transfer capacities)– Within-day redispatch (key pinchpoints represented by linearised load flow

approximations)– Costs and operating patterns derived for fuel and CO2 price sensitivities

• Detailed analysis of load flow and system dynamics:– Challenging but realistic point-in-time snapshots – Key north & south wind patterns (selected from year-round data)– inform security assessments, operational demands and reinforcement

designs

LimitationsLimitations

• 2015 chosen as furthest future point for which detailed national development plans generally available

• Realistic snapshots do not show worst case conditions in every area:– EWIS is not a check on national plans– But focuses on demanding European conditions (market

interactions and continental wind patterns)

EWIS scenariosEWIS scenarios

• Best Estimate Wind scenario 2015 circa 140 GW wind

• Optimistic Wind scenario 2015circa 185GW wind optimistic but not impossible

• Enhanced Network Scenarioas optimistic wind scenario but with enhanced cross-border capacities(gives outlook beyond 2015)

• Reference Scenariowind as 2008 (circa 70GW)(identifies wind specific requirements)

Win

dPow

er

Exchange capacity

Best Estimate

Optimistic Wind Enhanced Network Scenario

EWIS scenario classification

Reference

DenmarkDenmark

GermanyGermany

UK & IrelandUK & Ireland

Year round statistical resultsYear round statistical results

Time (one year run)

Exc

hang

e

Congested Time

Congested Time

Exchange Duration Curve

Snapshots with context from databaseSnapshots with context from database

European Electricity Market Model

E2M2s


E2M2s

Scheduling Model SMScheduling Model SM

Joint Market Model JMM


Generation Capacities;Seasonal Hydrores. Planning; Internat. Electricity Exchange


Electricity Prices;Cross-border Elec. Exchange


Input data base

Input data base

Wind and demand

data

Wind and demand

data

Output data base

Output data base

Unit Commitment;Reserve Usage


Wind & Load & Outage Scen.;Reserve Demand


Scenario Tree Tool STT


Green-X ToolGreen-X Tool

RES-E capacitiesCost of promotion

policies


policies


E2M2s


E2M2s

Scheduling Model SMScheduling Model SM







Input data base

Input data base

Wind and demand

data

Wind and demand

data

Output data base

Output data base







Green-X ToolGreen-X Tool


policies


policies

Low loadHigh wind NorthBest estimatePoint-in-time December 31st, 2015 06:00

MW

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

MW

h

020 Storage016 Fuel oil011 Sun010 Water_res008 Wind007 Nat_gas006 Coal002 Lignite009 Water005 Misc003 Biomass001 Nuclear

Po

int-

in-t

ime

SupWiSci consortium market model development (synergies to ongoing FP6 projects and TradeWind)

2015 risk assessments2015 risk assessments

•- Onshore installations

•- Offshore wind park cluster until 2015

•- Bulk power flow

•- Bottleneck

• Bulk DC power flow at rated line capacity

IrelandIreland UKUK NorthNorth

South WestSouth West Central EuropeCentral Europe SouthSouth

IEIEIEIE

SESENONO

FIFI

DDKK

NLNL

BEBE

FRFR

CZCZ

ATAT

DEDE

PLPL

DKDKSESE

CHCHNew pumping units SISI

NLNL

BEBE

FRFR

CZCZ

ATAT

DEDE

PLPL

DKDKSESE

CHCHNew pumping units SISI

Network strengtheningNetwork strengtheningConfirm existing + identify additionalConfirm existing + identify additional

• Longer-term measures ~€10.5b (€120/kW wind i.e. ~€4/MWh)

Stability & security assessmentsStability & security assessments

North South Mode (0,4 … 0.5 Hz)

• Security achieved with expected fault ride through performance

• Stability measures (stabilisers, etc) adequate but increasingly important as enhanced line ratings exploited

Balancing cost assessmentsBalancing cost assessments

1.6

1.92.0

2.6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

BE LC BE HC OPT LC OPT HC

Case

EUR/

MW

h-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

CO2 cost CO2 startupcost

Fuel cost Fuel startupcost

OMV cost Total energycost

Cost types

mio

EU

R BE LC

BE HC

OPT LC

OPT HC

• Wind balancing costs €1.6-2.6/MWh of wind produced

Albers Equal Area Conic Projection

Effects of wind Effects of wind modelledmodelled on on increased crossincreased cross--border capacitiesborder capacities

-- Enhanced Network Scenario 2015 and beyond Enhanced Network Scenario 2015 and beyond --

• Additional capacities based on market model results

• Marginal values • Year-round average• Principal display of additional

capacities• No specific determination of

location and technical options





Input Assumptions

Albers Equal Area Conic ProjectionAlbers Equal Area Conic Projection

Effects of wind Effects of wind modelledmodelled on on increased crossincreased cross--border capacitiesborder capacities

-- Enhanced Network Scenario 2015 and beyond Enhanced Network Scenario 2015 and beyond --









Input Assumptions

Cost-benefitsCost-benefits

• Also assessed:– Storage– Dynamic ratings– Enhanced demand side

• Potential for ~30 beneficial cross-border reinforcements @ €12,3b

Findings & RecommendationsFindings & Recommendations

• A pan-European network/market modelling approach is needed to identify measures to efficiently integrate wind– ENTSO-E is taking forward this demanding development task

• Identified additional/accelerated network strengthening measures to be considered– ENTSO-E has published in draft Ten Year Network Development

plan. Companies to take forward investment justifications

• Already planned reinforcements needed urgently – streamlined consenting crucial – Key schemes highlighted to policy makers

Findings & Recommendations (2)Findings & Recommendations (2)

• Funding of cross-border network strengthening requires regulatory assessment of European welfare (in addition to national regulatory scrutiny)– ERGEG (in advance of ACER) engaged on wind integration issues

• Additional short-term measures required– TSOs engaged in further development of operational switching, line

capacity management, phase shifters for power flow control, etc

• Inter-TSO cooperation essential for delivering short-term measures– Build on TSO Security Cooperation (TSC) and CORESO

Findings & Recommendations (3)Findings & Recommendations (3)

• Network code development & harmonisation– ENTSO-E has agreed to establish pilot working building on work

from EWIS and EWEA Grid Code group

• Market development (especially better network representation in day ahead and intra day markets)– EWIS modelling facilities available to regional initiative analyses

• Exchanging best practice and experience on TSO wind/demand forecasting and strategic management (e.g. see Spain)– Discussions and contacts to be continued within ENTSO-E

• Future options and policy developments– Links established between EWIS and Offshore Grid groups

• Continue work on wind integration for 2020 and beyond

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

• EWIS gratefully acknowledges: – the support of the European Commission DG TREN– the contribution of our modelling partners SUPWISci

(University of Duisberg-Essen)– the participation and collaboration of our key stakeholders,

especially the EWEA TradeWind study, IEA Task 25, Eurelectric & ENTSO-E

Our final report is available on:

www.wind-integration.eu

towards a successful integration of wind power into europe’s electricity grids

Documents

gw wind optimistic

south wind patterns

measured wind time series

large scale wind power

electricity market

time snapshots key

tradewind market models

detailed analysis of